Here is some info on refined gasoline imports from EIA.EIA US import data
UK is the leading supplier to US west coast.
Total refined gasoline imports to west coast is avg 56kbpd.
Can you believe UK to California?
US is desperate for gasoline.
Almost all the major European refinery states are exporting to US.
Luckily, it looks like they have quite a lot of capacity to satisfy domestic and export to US. I am not sure about 1.5mbpd that is required according to you guys. I can see 1.4mbpd easily attainable if 90+% utilization rate for European and Asian refineries.
Also, if we make it this year, next year will be worse. European refiners: France and Germany are scheduled for major downtime. Ouch! IEA refinery report
It looks like world refined product stocks will be dropping for the whole year, unless demand decreases.