[Keith_McClary]

I like to just sit in my car. That will still work after the oil age. It may become a popular pastime as well.

Maybe drive in theatres will rent you a place to keep it. You could bicycle out with your sweetie and sit in the car.

[Pops]

Here's Tverberg's latest projection. it looks a lot steeper than the Ivanhoe!

Because Ivanhoe was trying to predict oil production and Gail is trying to predict CREDIT PRODUCTION

A major point of this chart is that all fuels are likely to decline simultaneously, because the cause is financial.

I will say it does look something like a shark fin but I think she has "jumped the shark" with this one and gone over into la la land. I may be a doomer as h2 suggested but Gail is just not happy with any circumstance nowadays, if the cost of oil is too high we're dead, but now the cost of oil is too low so we're even deader! But what do I know, people pay to hear her opinion and she is a systematic thinker after all, which the thing that really set her apart from the smug, equation-toting engineer confidence of TOD back in the day.

But there is no doubt that in the early years of TOD and PO.com way too much attention was paid to discoveries, reserves, reservoir characteristics, yadda yadda: basically the hard science of oil; while the voodoo of economics and consumer whim was disparaged by all. Turns out that money did create oil (at least in the short run) and that consumers matter, as the saying goes:
The customer may not always be right but he is always the customer.

Which brings me back to my point about the next phase of the curve being a steeper drop than the smooth Hubbert curve suggests - though not the End Of The World Tyverberg Cliff. Here are a couple of illustrations of the idea that societal inertia sucks production forward so that instead of the steepest part of the downslope happening later it happens sooner.




Then add that to what I was describing before, the fact that unconventional, non-flowing hydrocarbons simply cannot ramp up fast enough to replace declining conventional production. I called it the reserve/production ratio; basically if all the oil remaining were light, sweet crude in pressurized reservoirs the production rate could be high compared to the reserves left. That would make for a nice smooth curve and gentle downslope - like US production. But if the remaining reserves are hard to get, the production of those reserves will be slower, giving a low R/P ratio that gets lower all the time as the easiest oil is consumed.

Hence things go along fine until replacement of old conventional can't keep up with depletion and the underlying decline starts to show.

[eastbay]

Revi, good work! I've shared it.

Everyone should be aware of this harsh barrier we're now up against. There's no getting around it, no mitigating our appointment with this brick wall. We'll smack into it quite soon.

And Pops, thanks for sharing the latest graphs by Gail. They clarify things in a clear, easy to understand manner.

[Revi]

Thanks! I think most people can understand what I am saying, and it simplifies the whole thing. Of course I think it won't be as rosy as that actually. It will become apparent that the remaining oil is scarce and then it will get interesting.

[Pops]

Of course I think it won't be as rosy as that actually. It will become apparent that the remaining oil is scarce and then it will get interesting.

Exactly right Revi.

I have fun drawing the idea-plots like those above trying to guess how the curve might look but where the rubber meets the road (yuk yuk) is price. The recent nosedive in price on a slight build in stocks (oil in storage) shows the markets are completely irrational and trade much more on fear than any kind of market price. The upshot is that once decline sets in traders might simply go off the deep end and all the plots I and everyone else has ever scribbled out will be just so much digital detritus.

Heck, Gail's plot may be correct after all, about the only thing that could make it happen is complete economic collapse or an out of control trading system that runs up the price of FF so high that no one can pay.

[jedrider]

So, the crossing point of those two graphs are when we really turn into an 'information' society because we are no longer an 'energy society'. I already have all my VHS tapes of all the great movies of the 20'th century, so I am ready for the next great transition.

[vtsnowedin]

I think we need to split this into: 1. the worlds last cars. and 2 ,Our last cars. On the world stage some lucky SOB that lives on an oil field and has the smarts to keep it (including not having it stolen out from under him ) until everybody else has sold and burned all their oil will be driving a brand new BMW in the year 2150. But we/ I are probably on our last cars or at least our last "new" cars. My family now consists of five adults that are all employed at different locations except myself and I am retired with some part time work close to home. Between us we have two Japanese sedans that are about five years old and paid for , one SUV. that is five and paid for and one small pickup that is two thirds paid for and one SUV that is smaller that is less then a year old. At any rate baring a crash loss none of us need a new car in the next five years and I and my wife could expect to buy just one more new car between us if that. By the time we wear these cars out much will have changed and the down slope of the shark fin curve may well be upon us. I might replace my truck with a beater or a golf cart with solar panels thrown in. The girls may have all moved very close to there work (a process that is well under way) and not need a replacement. At any rate I think the cars will last well past the fuel to run them.
The question is will there still be work to do after cars are removed from the economy?

[Revi]

I agree, since I was noticing how many businesses are connected with cars today. My wife hit a deer with her Honda Fit and we had to take it to the body shop. I got to thinking about how many businesses are connected with cars. Almost all of them. When the gas starts to become scarce we won't be driving around as much so all those businesses will suffer which will lead to fewer jobs.

[vtsnowedin]

I agree, since I was noticing how many businesses are connected with cars today. My wife hit a deer with her Honda Fit and we had to take it to the body shop. I got to thinking about how many businesses are connected with cars. Almost all of them. When the gas starts to become scarce we won't be driving around as much so all those businesses will suffer which will lead to fewer jobs.

A good chunk of that business commuting can be replaced by video conferencing which is already well developed. Some things of course require a skilled hand at the scene to turn the right tool in a practiced way to get the job done, but if it is just words ,replies and note taking why drive past your computer screen. People in business faced with a new reality based on energy costs will come up with some very innovative ways to make their bottom line a positive number.

[dashster]

The oil supply isn't going to decline that quickly!

I expect that we have another decade or so before car ownership starts to show any significant decline, as it is fewer young people are driving (depending on location) than in the past.
The car has lost its crown as the key to freedom that it used to have, these days social media has taken away the social isolation that many used to feel due to the lack of transportation.

For an ever increasing number of people the car is just a means of getting from A to B and less of a status symbol than in the past.

A young person today also faces different circumstances than in the past. A lot of jobs have been exported and workers are continually imported or continually eliminated via automation. Rents have gone up disproportionately more than inflation as the population has gone up over 100 million from the 1970's into mostly the same metro areas. A car is unaffordable for many of them. It is the same situation that has young people living with their parents longer than they did in the past or moving back in sometime in their 20's after having been on their own for some years.

[basil_hayden]

It might be your last ICE car, but not your last car - that's what I'm thinking.

I think I figured out on the back of a napkin that it takes about 350 junk cars worth of steel to make a typical Bakken horizontal well. The steel's needed.

Cars with carbon fiber bodies and a diverse electric based chassis* will go on because the American way of life is non-negotiable, silly. Cars are freedom.

*fuel cell/plugin/regen braking/capacitors/Barney Rubble/whatever.

[dashster]

It might be your last ICE car, but not your last car - that's what I'm thinking.

I think I figured out on the back of a napkin that it takes about 350 junk cars worth of steel to make a typical Bakken horizontal well. The steel's needed.

Cars with carbon fiber bodies and a diverse electric based chassis* will go on because the American way of life is non-negotiable, silly. Cars are freedom.

*fuel cell/plugin/regen braking/capacitors/Barney Rubble/whatever.

+1 for going with Barney and not Fred.

[Revi]

Definitely not our last cars if we have one of these:


They get the equivalent of 1000 mpg, and don't have to be registered or insured, because they are considered a bicycle. They can also go on any road, unlike a NEV, which can only be driven on roads posted under 35 mph.

[Quinny]

Thought I'd post some responses from my FB when I shared your figures with friends.

What do folks here think?

Are we on our last Cars?
A friend of mine did a little back of the envelope maths and came up with 233,000 miles left of gas for each of the vehicles on the planet. The way he came to this conclusion was 1 trillion barrels divided by the 1.2 billion vehicles = 833 barrels x 42 gallons in a barrel, divided by 3 (refined about 1/3 comes out as gasoline), times 20 miles per gallon = 233,000. Now if the supply curve is already sufficiently skewed then we will get a lot less, and maybe we are already on our last vehicles, as we may be looking at less than a hundred thousand miles left for every vehicle. What do you think? Does it seem reasonable?

June Dale Kirkham think Tesla.... his technologies have been suppressed by banksters so they could own the planet, job done
11 hrs · Like

David Quinn Can you show me any real evidence Tesla's technologies could replace FF? If it worked as alleged by it's supporters, why are there no real world applications out there?

Having said that - even if it was a viable technology like eg Solar PV. the ...See More
10 hrs · Like

Sean Anthony Kelly 20 mpg - driving a rolls royce?
8 hrs · Like

Susan Barker Where did his starting figure of 1trillion barrels come from?
7 hrs · Like

Chris Cheetham I think that the figures are suspect Dave. 20 mpg is very low unless we all drive Ferraris and Lamborghinis. Even my Impreza did more than 20mpg unless driven very hard/fast. Then the increasing use of hybrids - even McClaren/Ferrari/Porsche/BMW have them and they all do more than 20mpg.And then there are the Tesla cars - Model S Performance for us speed junkies!
6 hrs · Like

Colin Bracewell Trouble is the technology now can get oil it couldn't before so there is a lot more than previously stated as it was on reserves that were reachable on old technology
33 mins · Like

David Quinn One trillion is a fairly widely accepted figure as reserves remaining to be extracted. We are around the half way point and we've already extracted a similar amount. I actually believe this figure is over optimistic as I believe the supply curve has a...See More
3 mins · Like

[ralfy]

Also,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cycle_rickshaw

[Revi]

I just thought 20 mpg because a lot of people around here drive trucks, and they get much lower mileage. A better figure would be 25 mpg, or maybe even 30. I really don't think we'll get 233,000 out of each vehicle because we need to be getting really good oil with a low EROEI, or the whole thing doesn't work.

[vtsnowedin]

If you subscribe to the theory that supplies will get increasingly tighter and prices will rise to the maximum people can pay then you have to expect the mpg of cars actually being driven to go up. First the SUVs get parked unless there is a payload other then the driver to carry. Then the sedans that don't get over 30 mpg etc. In the end your only driving "Smart cars" with two people in them while you 250 Ford pickup sits in the garage with just 30K on it waiting for the next trip it has a payload to carry.
Awhile back I ran into a construction supervisor that had switched from his full sized GMC pickup to a smart car. He said most days it was just him and a briefcase full of plans and as he drove over 45,000 miles per year the smart car paid for itself in saved gas (60mpg vs 18 mpg)in just two years.
We will all come to these math problems and solve them to our best advantage in time.

[Revi]

Here's the car we built back in 2008. It was really fun to drive, and got the equivalent of 200 mpg:


That's me in it at the Bar Harbor 4th of July parade. Art Haines is the inventor and he ended up selling over 25 kits all over the world. They were mostly built by kids in schools.

[basil_hayden]

I bet that thing goes like a bat outta hell downhill, Revi.

[Pops]

I had a car just like that way back!

Well, sorta, it had a wooden bumper.