kublikhan wrote:I think there is a misunderstanding here of this graph. It measures how many petro dollars are entering/leaving the world market. It is not a barometer of the general health of the world economy.
Lower Oil Prices Will Help Boost Global Economy, IMF’s Lagarde SaysInternational Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde on Monday said falling oil prices will help boost economies in the U.S. and across much of the globe, a net positive for a world struggling with slowing growth. “It is good news for the global economy.”
Lower oil prices are good for most consumers, who pay less for gasoline, but could squeeze energy companies and the economies of some major producers like Russia and Venezuela. For the U.S., lower energy prices will help accelerate economic growth to a 3.5% pace next year, Ms. Lagarde said, up from an October forecast of 3.1%.
Battling Global UnemploymentSeven years after the onset of the Great Recession, the global unemployment rate has returned to its pre-crisis level: the jobless rate fell to 5.6% in 2014; essentially the same as in 2007, the year before the recession. The index does show that global employment has grown by about 9 percent—which translates into 208 million jobs being created—since the low point of the recession.
Global RecessionAccording to the IMF, there have been four global recessions since World War II, beginning in 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009, respectively. This last recession was the deepest and widest of them all. Since 2010, the world economy has been in a process of recovery, albeit a slow one.
World Economic Outlook (WEO)Global activity has broadly strengthened and is expected to improve further in 2014–15
kublikhan wrote:falling oil prices will help boost economies in the U.S. and across much of the globe
radon1 wrote:Falling "petrodollar exports" is an indication of weakening international trade/investment.
Pops wrote:radon1 wrote:Falling "petrodollar exports" is an indication of weakening international trade/investment.
Based on what?
Pops wrote:It is merely an indication producers have changed their spending, or lost their cash flow entirely due to the price drop.
radon1 wrote:The producers do little outside exchanging their oil for foreign consumer/investment goods.
radon1 wrote:...meaning weaker international trade.
Deutsche Bank is predicting global GDP growth of 3.6% in 2015, up from 3.3% in 2014. A big part of that jump comes from the bank's projection that US growth will accelerate to 3.7% this year, powered by ongoing accommodation by the Fed, stronger consumer and business spending, a housing market finally returning to normal, and the presumed boost to consumers from lower oil prices.
Plunging oil prices are giving a bump to consumer and business spending around the world -- just not enough to increase global growth forecasts.
A darkening outlook in emerging markets including China, Russia and Brazil and geopolitical risks such as Greece’s possible exit from the euro are overshadowing the benefits from lower energy costs. The median estimate for 2015 world expansion from economists surveyed by Bloomberg News has been unchanged since October, when it fell to 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent.
Pops wrote:Deutsche Bank is predicting global GDP growth of 3.6% in 2015, up from 3.3% in 2014.
Pops wrote:Second, what numbers should be used rather than the "official"?
Pops wrote:
They continue to sell oil if they can but they don't invest the proceeds elsewhere they keep it at hopm.
Pops wrote: it is about what exporters are doing with oil profits if any.
radon1 wrote:Pops wrote:Deutsche Bank is predicting global GDP growth of 3.6% in 2015, up from 3.3% in 2014.
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