Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 19:19:25

Cog wrote:This is an interesting move on Fatboy's part.


http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/phone/news/vi ... idx=185423

[b]Fifty North Korean submarines have left their bases since Saturday,


If one of those subs sinks a ship, then the allies must sink one in response. And so it goes, back and forth, until someone blinks or we just decide it's all-out war.

If I'm not mistaken, the whole thing started with a couple SK soldiers seriously injured by NK landmines.

Then SK started the loudspeaker propganda, and that escalated it to this, SK won't turn the speakers off.

I think the better military move, at this point, would be to respond in kind about the landmines and then turn the speakers off. Otherwise if "fatboy" starts firing shots then we're at war and we have to stop and ask ourselves if we want war or not.

What would you do, Cog, if you were in charge? Would you keep the loudspeakers turned on?
User avatar
Sixstrings
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15184
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Cog » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 19:29:13

Maybe John Kerry should go over and apologize to the North Koreans.

I would not only keep the speakers on, I would add more of them. Fatboy is playing the same game that his father and grandfather played. He knows not to escalate too much or him and his country are rubble. Unless of course, this Kim is truly insane in which case war is going to happen regardless of loudspeakers.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7747
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 19:41:46

North, South Korea hold marathon talks in bid to end standoff

South Korea, also on high alert, has said it had no plans to halt the propaganda broadcasts that triggered the latest standoff.

The envoys, shown on TV exchanging handshakes and tight smiles at the start of their meeting on Saturday, discussed ways to resolve tension and improve ties, the Blue House said in a brief statement early on Sunday.

"Both sides are under big pressure to get something out of this," said Jeon Young-sun, professor at the Institute of the Humanities for Unification at Konkuk University in Seoul.

...

"North Korea wants to stop broadcasts, while South Korea can't do it without achieving anything back," Jeon said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/23/us-northkorea-southkorea-idUSKCN0QR02D20150823
User avatar
Sixstrings
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15184
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Cog » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 19:47:11

You know some of those North Korean submarines could just end up missing. That would give the South Koreans something back without anyone being the wiser.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7747
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 20:01:55

Image

S. Korea slams North over submarine, artillery deployments

The movement of such a large number of submarines was "unprecedented," the spokesman said, adding that Seoul and Washington were beefing up their military surveillance in response.

"The number is nearly 10 times the normal level... we take the situation very seriously," he said.

The North has also doubled the number of artillery units along the heavily-fortified land border with the South, he added.

...

Yonhap news agency, citing military officials, said the submarine deployment was the largest since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.

"No one knows whether the North will attack our warships or commercial vessels... we are mobilising all our surveillance resources to locate them," it quoted one military official as saying.

The North operates more than 70 submarines -- one of the world's largest fleets -- compared to about 10 in the South, according to Seoul's latest defense white paper.

The South accused Pyongyang in 2010 of using a submarine to torpedo a Seoul warship resulting in the loss of 46 lives -- a charge the North denied.

http://news.yahoo.com/korea-slams-north-over-submarine-artillery-deployments-101404618.html
User avatar
Sixstrings
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15184
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 20:16:45

ennui2 wrote:99% chance this will just blow over like it always does. This is just usual Doomer news-porn mixed with an anti-Obama circle-jerk.
Plus cogs obsession with all things "masculine" and his insatiable need for rock hard throbbing manhood.
User avatar
PrestonSturges
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6052
Joined: Wed 15 Oct 2008, 02:00:00

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 20:24:10

Cog wrote:Maybe John Kerry should go over and apologize to the North Koreans.

I would not only keep the speakers on, I would add more of them. Fatboy is playing the same game that his father and grandfather played. He knows not to escalate too much or him and his country are rubble. Unless of course, this Kim is truly insane in which case war is going to happen regardless of loudspeakers.


Hm.. well.. we'll see.

The thing I saw on CNN about this, they were just saying that American defense officials would actually like South Korea to do a *little less* escalation in response to when NK does things.

On this latest round of stuff, for example, NK launched something like 4 artillery shells but then SK launched like 32. According to the CNN report I saw, SK doctrine is for overwhelming response. And they were saying the US would actually like SK to tone that down, a bit.

Which is standard American military doctrine. We're more careful with escalation management. If we get hit a little bit, we hit back a bit harder, but we don't go that next step which just invites even more escalation.

You don't choose to escalate, unless that's what you really want, and you want a war. Which the US has done, sometimes. So that's all I'm saying here Cog, just don't stumble into a war is all. If we're lookin' for a war, if South Korea is, if we've decided that is what we need to do and that's strategically necessary and the right thing to do at this stage -- then okay, I get that.

But don't just stumble into one, by accident.

It's what happened in world war one, remember? It was Bismarck or somebody, he actually had second thoughts -- but then said something like, "what can we do, all the trains are already running."

So I don't know.. if this is all about the loudspeakers.. why not just turn them off?

I think strategically, the loudspeakers thing is over-escalation. I'm not saying North Koreans are any kind of good guys here, but the thing is, if one of those subs sinks a South Korean ship -- then SK MUST respond and sink some NK ships because if it doesn't and backs down at THAT point, then that's a lot worse than just turning the loudspeakers off.

It's okay to blink on something, that doesn't really matter. I don't see how these loudspeakers really matter.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15184
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 20:38:32

The thing is that Seoul is within artillery range on NK guns, and the North has supposedly entrenched thousands of artillery pieces ready to fire (those guys love to dig!). If shit gets real, the north supposedly has the ability to drop tens of thousands of artillery shells on Seoul in a day. Or maybe that's propaganda.
User avatar
PrestonSturges
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6052
Joined: Wed 15 Oct 2008, 02:00:00

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 20:52:49

PrestonSturges wrote:The thing is that Seoul is within artillery range on NK guns, and the North has supposedly entrenched thousands of artillery pieces ready to fire (those guys love to dig!). If shit gets real, the north supposedly has the ability to drop tens of thousands of artillery shells on Seoul in a day. Or maybe that's propaganda.


No, that's apparently the truth, that's what all the "experts" are always saying.

Preston, what do you think about this? Is the thing a little strange, or not?

NK says they want the loudspeakers turned off. I didn't see enough detail in the articles to know whether or not NK was offering to turn their 3 mile range loudpseakers off, too (SK's loudspeaker range is 12 miles).

What started all this was something about landmines that NK placed, and there were a couple SK soldiers that were seriously injured. So there's a legitimate issue here. But for some reason, the loudspeaker thing is really bothering the north koreans, so after the land mine incident, south korea turned on these new loudspeakers and they've been running ever since -- so that's what NK is saying, an ultimatum that SK has to turn off these loudspeakers.

So what do you think about it.

If it gets to serious fighting, I just think it's kind of odd, that it started with "propaganda loudspeakers" shouting over the DMZ and one side demands the other side turns them off, but the other side won't turn the speakers off.

I think militarily, if two SK soldiers were injured, then SK should have hit back in a proportionate military way causing similar damage to the NK side. The loudspeaker thing though is regime destabilizing, that's a 12 mile range over the border and all the NK forces are hearing this -- which naturally would panic kim jong un and his regime. He could get mass desertions, or revolution, from that.

If it's a CONSCIOUS strategy that's at work here, then okay I get that. I would just want to know that it's a conscious strategy and calculated risk and thought out, is all. From what I heard on CNN, I didn't hear anything that sounds like US military commanders are in charge on it and managing it. So that's what concerns me.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15184
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 21:07:55

Well anyhow, South Korea is the one taking the most risk.

And they've certainly taken a lot of sh*t from NK, over many years now.

If they've decided they have to keep the loudspeakers on, then okay, but if NK lands some troops on a SK island or if a north korean sub sinks a south korean ship -- then strategically, SK must fight back. Backing down on that would be exponentially worse than turning the speakers off.

At the end of the day, North Korea is a cult hellhole and it's sad the people are brainwashed and trapped there. Whereas the southern side of that Korean peninsula is actually one of the top economies on the entire planet. And a democracy. Free, and economically vital and a huge success.

Whatever happens, we all stand with south korea. Also -- apparently NK really did hack us. We can't just all keep pussyfooting around with NK until the end of time, if we keep waiting on this then NK is gonna have ICBM's soon that could actually reach the USA.

The riskiest thing though.. NK has those nukes.. their nukes can't reach us, but they could Japan and South Korea.

N. Korea forward deploys amphibious landing crafts carrying special forces

About 10 North Korean air-cushioned landing crafts have left their home base in Cholsan, North Pyongan Province, and come forward to the Goampo naval base, located about 60 kilometers north of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea, the de facto inter-Korean sea border, the sources said.

"Since North Korea declared a semi-war state, its infiltration vehicles and forces have been actively moving," one of the sources said.

North Korea has two types of air-cushioned boats. One of them is the 35-ton class Gongbang II that can travel at a speed between 74-96 kmph, and the other is the 20-ton class Gongbang III that can travel up to 96 kmph.

With the mission to transport special infiltration forces ashore, the air-cushioned vehicle is one of North Korea's three core infiltration assets.
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150824000241


I don't know if anyone posted this already, but apparently NK moved artillery INSIDE the dmz. It looks like they're really bothered by these loudspeakers. But whatever, if this thing escalates, maybe it could have a good outcome and the regime in the north finally collapses and korea is reunified.

This stuff with NK has gone on far too long.. and Bill Clinton made a major mistake in the 90s, when he didn't stop them from getting nukes. We needed to move on this thing, back then.

So anyways.. I don't know how common or uncommon it is, but obviously putting artillery in the DMZ is an armistice violation:

North Korea positions its artillery inside DMZ

North Korea has set up its artillery inside the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in its efforts to stop South Korea's broadcasts against the North.

The North reportedly brought 76.2-millimeter artillery guns into the DMZ and positioned more military units behind the DMZ on Saturday, according to Yonhap News Agency. The guns are supposedly the same weapons the North recently used in its preemptive strikes at the South's western border regions in Thursday afternoon.

The North's regrouping of the artillery inside the DMZ is a clear violation of the armistice and their non-aggression agreement, the source said. The North has been keeping the weapons outside the DMZ until now.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2015/08/485_185362.html


The North has been keeping the weapons outside the DMZ until now.

So does this mean this is the first time, since they end of the Korean war, that they'd moved artillery into the DMZ?

And per the other article, they've never moved all their subs out all at once before, either.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15184
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 23:35:15

Sixstrings wrote:The thing I saw on CNN about this, they were just saying that American defense officials would actually like South Korea to do a *little less* escalation in response to when NK does things.

On this latest round of stuff, for example, NK launched something like 4 artillery shells but then SK launched like 32. According to the CNN report I saw, SK doctrine is for overwhelming response. And they were saying the US would actually like SK to tone that down, a bit.
Yah, they should do a proportionate response, like our best ally Israel does. :roll:
"I could go on, but let’s veer off in another direction instead."

– The Archdruid
User avatar
Keith_McClary
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7273
Joined: Wed 21 Jul 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Suburban tar sands

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 23:40:56

Keith_McClary wrote:Yah, they should do a proportionate response, like our best ally Israel does. :roll:


Just to be clear, I'm not sure how much everyone knows the entire story with NK and SK, but over the years the south koreans were doing LESS when provoked.

There were many, many incidents. There are little South Korean islands with towns on them, and North Korea has just randomly shelled them. A couple ships were sunk, etc.

People kidnapped, decades of bizarre plots against South Korea, and tunnels dug to infiltrate the south.

So they have put up with quite a bit. Then more recently, South Korea has a more assertive stance.

So just wanted to clarify that, SK has never been any kind of "bully" with NK. Having said that, if they're at the brink of ships getting sunk and then having to respond to that, I don't quite get why they don't just turn the loudspeakers off.

edit: unless there's something I don't know about, like maybe it's a plan to undermine the NK regime and get the truth out to the people living up there. If there's a strategy behind it, then I get that. I actually don't have enough information to be giving opinions.

All I heard on CNN was that US officials were a little concerned SK does too much now, in response, so then that made me think "hmmm, well is there a plan with all this or not."

South Koreans are taking all the risk, they're ones with their capital right on the border and all that artillery. I assume they know what they are doing, and that the Obama admin is on top of it. Thinking about it, the US always had "radio marti" and Radio Free Europe in east europe etc. -- wouldn't have been right for a Russia or Cuba to just threaten us and say we can't send messages into their country.

So I don't know, I'll shut up about it.

It just seemed odd to me, brink of war over "propaganda broadcasts." Maybe NK is too sensitive, maybe we do just need to have a war. NK did that massive Sony hack, all over that movie that was made. None of us can bow down to NK forever, and their sensitivities, I suppose.
Last edited by Sixstrings on Mon 24 Aug 2015, 00:02:07, edited 3 times in total.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15184
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Cog » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 23:48:05

The ability of the North Koreans to actually flatten Seoul with artillery and rockets is very questionable. Most of their artillery simply isn't within range of Seoul. The other thing is that South Korea has excellent counter-battery abilities and a US equipped Air Force. They aren't going to be sitting on the ground while Seoul gets shelled. The hell that Fatboy thinks he can unleash is nothing compare to what the South Korean and US military could do in return.

Here is a pretty good article on why the North Koreans can't simply flatten Seoul with artillery and rockets.

https://skeptoid.com/blog/2013/03/11/wh ... ten-seoul/

Now if the Fatboy decides to use nukes or chemical, that raises things to a whole different level of derp.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7747
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Cog » Sun 23 Aug 2015, 23:57:23

It is basic schoolyard psychology. You don't show weakness to a bully. It only encourages him to further violence. Bloody his nose and encourage him to find other victims more willing to go along with him.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7747
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Mon 24 Aug 2015, 00:18:30

Cog wrote:The ability of the North Koreans to actually flatten Seoul with artillery and rockets is very questionable. Most of their artillery simply isn't within range of Seoul.
Yeah, your basic 105 mm towed howitzer wouldn't get a shell even half way there. A self propelled howitzer could hit Seoul with no problem, at least to the north side of Seoul, but NK would probably only have a couple hundred of those at most. I can't imagine SK wouldn't have advanced counterfire radar trucks to pinpoint NK artillery.

The US would certainly scramble ground attack aircraft, and our largest Air Force base in the Pacific is in Okinawa, about 1000 miles away. They are probably at some level of heightened alert.
User avatar
PrestonSturges
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6052
Joined: Wed 15 Oct 2008, 02:00:00

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Cog » Mon 24 Aug 2015, 01:37:43

We also have the capability to stage B-52's and B-2 bombers in Guam and South Korea itself if we are inclined. I believe the USS Reagan carrier group is stationed in Japan so they are available. Another carrier group could leave from the west coast of the US within a week or so.

None of this will be necessary, more than likely. Depends on the sanity of the Fatman.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7747
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 24 Aug 2015, 03:34:20

Cog wrote:The ability of the North Koreans to actually flatten Seoul with artillery and rockets is very questionable. Most of their artillery simply isn't within range of Seoul....

****************

WRONG!

North Korea has thousands of BM-21 Grad Missiles on SK-Capital

http://www.military-today.com/artillery/grad.htm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iSYObi5JjI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CvfaT66vjE
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2675
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby Cog » Mon 24 Aug 2015, 04:36:13

Do you really have any idea how many rockets and artillery rounds it would take to level a city like Seoul? The Grad missiles contain cluster munitions suitable for anti-tank or anti-personnel use. What makes you think they work well on concrete buildings. Seoul has the capability to put all of its citizens underground in shelters in any event.

You can reduce a city to ruins with artillery or MLRS systems but it takes a very long time. Your better bet is to use 2000 lb bombs dropped from aircraft. Either way, after the first artillery round or Grad missile falls on Seoul, there is a going to be a lot of outgoing artillery and aircraft bombing everything of importance north of the DMZ.

Yep some damage will be done and people will be killed in Seoul but its not the end of all life as some suggest.

Do you really think that South Korean and US war planners have just sat back and observed the future battlefield for the last 60 years and not come up with a plan to counter what NK has planned? I assure you they have thought a great deal about it.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7747
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 24 Aug 2015, 10:50:35

Keith_McClary wrote:Yah, they should do a proportionate response, like our best ally Israel does. :roll:


Glad to see you've come to your senses in respecting Israel's use of military force.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
permanently banned
 
Posts: 3933
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 09:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: WAR ! North Korea troops are ready! Deadline 10:00 CET

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 24 Aug 2015, 12:23:25

PEACE ?!


Agreement !

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/24/asia/koreas-tensions/

North Korea, South Korea reach agreement
By Jethro Mullen and Kyung Lah, CNN
Updated 1754 GMT (0054 HKT) August 24, 2015
****************

Bad news for shorties lol
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2675
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Geopolitics & Global Economics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests