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PeakOil is You

Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby Cog » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 17:25:58

Four day work week. 10 hr days. Save 20% on fuel for commute and leave more time for home gardening. No appreciable down-side that I can see.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby vetusfirma » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 17:44:58

Old saying: “If rape is inevitable, relax and enjoy it“. Oil depletion is inevitable. If you start using any finite resource, it will be depleted. So relax and enjoy it. Won’t matter what you do, won’t matter what thousands do, won’t matter what millions do, save or waste, it won’t matter. OIL WILL BE DEPELETED. It is not a punishment, it is not a crime, it just IS.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 17:55:03

vetusfirma wrote:Old saying: “If rape is inevitable, relax and enjoy it“. Oil depletion is inevitable. If you start using any finite resource, it will be depleted. So relax and enjoy it. Won’t matter what you do, won’t matter what thousands do, won’t matter what millions do, save or waste, it won’t matter. OIL WILL BE DEPELETED. It is not a punishment, it is not a crime, it just IS.


Right, but in light of what IS, the question then is what to DO.

Sort of like rain just IS, but an umbrella is what I DO.

We've identified the problem, now we are working on some kind of solution. If your position is that there is no solution, fine, but we're probably going to keep discussing it anyway.
:)
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby Kingcoal » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 18:15:20

What you are looking for is painless solutions? The solutions are simple, they just involve pain to varying degrees. My answer: morphine; one of the most powerful pain killers known to man. Let the markets work things out while distributing morphine to those who complain. Problem solved.
"That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby gnm » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 18:19:58

Pops wrote:Not gonna happen Mr. Bill as you well know.

My best offering is:

Disassociate business from government.


Not gonna happen Pops as you well know....
8)

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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby Pops » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 18:26:44

gnm wrote:Not gonna happen Pops as you well know....

Yea, we are KISSED.

Keep It Simple Supposes Endless Discovery.


Darn.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby Pretorian » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 18:59:13

A very simple solution:
1) buy/lease all oil tankers in the world;
2) forbid building new ones;
3) Pay exporters enough to cover costs+ some food;
4) Sell to the importers cheap enough so they can eat enough to be able to work;
5) have a happy life for another 150-200 years.
Last edited by Pretorian on Tue 03 Jun 2008, 23:04:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 19:51:10

Unfortunately, the only viable solution is so repugnant that even the hardest of hardcore among us would have trouble sleeping at night:

Let. Them. Starve.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby Pretorian » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 22:58:19

Dreamtwister wrote:Unfortunately, the only viable solution is so repugnant that even the hardest of hardcore among us would have trouble sleeping at night:

Let. Them. Starve.


wow to hear something like that from an old member... with 1800+ posts.. Where you've been all this time? Board Kiosk?
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 23:24:53

Pretorian wrote:wow to hear something like that from an old member... with 1800+ posts.. Where you've been all this time? Board Kiosk?


I never said it would be easy. I only said that it would be the truth.

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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 03:53:39

Most simple, and certainly excellent, solutions so far have revolved around reducing one's own personal consumption and/or using local inputs when and where they exist. That is a good start.

If you have rainwater, by all means collect it. That is not much of a solution here in Cyprus nor in Arizona I would presume? However, the wood stove, for example. As pstarr is apt to point out such solutions work for the individual, but they are not scalable, and they are certainly not without their negative side effects.

For example, burning wood for cooking has caused massive deforestation and soil erosion in environmentally sensitive areas, and in many parts of the developing world health problems associated with poor ventilation and cooking over an open fire. Charcoaling is even worse for the environment and the health. Especially when done inefficiently.

If adopted on a large scale these problems would quickly spiral out of control, and reverse many of our conservation efforts up to now. As I mentioned in another post the three-way civil war that raged in Lebanon for a decade(s) took its toll on old-growth Cypress forests that were cut down for heating as alternatives such as gas were not available or affordable. Those forests take hundreds of years to reach maturity.

If you lived or visited Eastern Europe during Soviet times you would certainly be familiar with the low-hanging smog caused by coal smoke. A substitute for wood heating that also releases pollutants into the air. And you may notice the houses that used to be heated by wood stoves alone were very, very small in comparison to the average home today. Exfixiation as well as chimney fires were a common occurrence. Especially when burning overnight at low temps. My grandmother's family perished due to a chimney fire.

So there may be a place for better insulated homes with passive solar heating that use a wood stove as supplemental heat, but this is not a solution that is flexible or willing to travel. It has been tried on a large scale and already found wanting. Do we want to repeat the mistakes of the past?

And, of course, if you're already living on a dollar or two a day, and spending half of that on food and energy, then your ability to buy solar panels is probably unattainable without some sort of outside subsidy. Those make great pilot projects, but they are not scalable. Think locally. Act locally. Is probably more realistic than thinking globally. Unless you have extra time and energy on your hands.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby careinke » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 04:32:27

Grow a garden.

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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby davep » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 05:27:53

However, the wood stove, for example. As pstarr is apt to point out such solutions work for the individual, but they are not scalable, and they are certainly not without their negative side effects.


I specifically mentioned (high efficiency) wood stoves as an adjunct to a passive solar house. In this scenario the wood stove would be used intermittently and would require far less wood to help maintain the temperature. This then becomes scaleable if wood harvesting is scaleable and sustainable (as it is now in France) and would actually dramatically reduce wood consumption in areas where it is already a major fuel source.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 06:02:40

Dave, I am not criticizing you or your suggestion. Just pointing out that there are very few simple solutions that are scalable and portable.

For example addressing climate change and resource depletion in the rich/western/developed world is quite different than coming up with solutions for all the rest of humanity. They need not be mutually exclusive, but they are not likely to be the same either.

I am still waiting for a solution that meets all of the criteria in the original question, which was in any case a rhetorical question of sorts to begin with. Just like I told BT that I could address greenhouse gas emissions by putting seawater in my gas tank. It's a joke. Of course, by rendering my vehicle useless I address climate change, but I do not solve my transportation problem either. He suggested I drive less. That is not a bad suggestion, but I drive so little in the first place that it is not really that useful. Certainly not relative to the size of the global energy problem.

So there may be thousands of steps we can individually take, but there are fewer simple solutions that we can all take. Except, of course, to voluntarily reduce our consumption. If we were that advanced politically and socially we could likely solve a great many of the world's economical and environmental problems at the same time. We are not there, yet. So the search for simple, painless solutions goes on. Instead of addressing each problem head on until a solution is found whether it is palatable to all stakeholders or not.

I hate the word 'stakeholders'. It sounds to me like everyone wants a voice at the table, but they want someone else to pay for the solution.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby davep » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 06:12:15

MrBill wrote:Dave, I am not criticizing you or your suggestion. Just pointing out that there are very few simple solutions that are scalable and portable.


No problem. I probably came across a bit terse, as I had only had one coffee at that point.

However, I do think that my suggestion could be part of a bigger solution set. There is no single elegant simple solution, but a myriad of interconnected solutions (IMO).
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 06:19:08

Have the nations leader go on television and explain resource depletion. Explain the fact that the cost of oil and gas will continue to rise informing people it is in there best interests to readjust there lifes, especialy car size and miles covered.

It will not solve the problem, but in terms of impact vs cost it is about the best thing you can do.

Hey stop laughing once in a while you have a politician with a bit of balls.....

"I have nothing to offere but blood, sweat and tears.....", "We shall fight them on the beaches, fight them on the landing grounds ..... and with growing resolve.....", "It is not the end, nor indeed even the begining of the end, it is however the end of the begining.....".
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 07:00:44

davep wrote:
MrBill wrote:Dave, I am not criticizing you or your suggestion. Just pointing out that there are very few simple solutions that are scalable and portable.


No problem. I probably came across a bit terse, as I had only had one coffee at that point.

However, I do think that my suggestion could be part of a bigger solution set. There is no single elegant simple solution, but a myriad of interconnected solutions (IMO).


No worries. It is a dialogue. It was actually started in response to a completely different thread where many simple solutions were being thrown around. Group think can be very dangerous.

We have a farm with adequate poplar and birch to burn for our own needs. We have and will use our wood stove and/or fireplace as well as install wind, solar and/or a heat pump. Those adaptations will cost money, but they will reduce our reliance on the grid. Theoretically that will save us money over time and free up that capacity for others.

It is our local solution. There are many others. We have local deer to hunt as well. They are practically like pets, so I will not even pretend its sport. But if everyone all of a sudden decides beef is too expensive, and buys a hunting license, then the remaining deer in the countryside are not going to last very long either!

I will not pretend either that our solutions can be emulated by others that lack those resources. I know we are lucky!
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby davep » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 07:30:46

Following on from Pops' idea, I think we should pass laws where being a corporate lobbyist is punishable by death. Justice can be meted out by all and sundry.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby BigTex » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 09:07:31

Growing a little of one's own food and attempting to simply do without certain things are two of the best solutions I've heard so far.

Learning how to do without something is one of the most elegant solutions there is. No technology required.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 10 Jun 2008, 04:40:04

One solution: cut subsidies for energy consumption immediately, and use those funds to subsidize the import of better seeds and adequate fertilizer. energy subsidies are money down a rat hole that encourage over-consumption. subsidizing seed and fertilizer imports to raise production in an era of high prices and potential food shortages is an investment in social stability and domestic growth.

It powered the Green Revolution and helped save millions from starvation, but now one of the most important tools on the farm is being priced out of reach for many of the world's growers.

With food prices soaring and stocks thinning, the world is in need of bumper harvests but once one of most bountiful of commodities, fertilizer, is becoming scarce and expensive.

It's estimated that one third of the protein consumed by humans is a result of fertilizer. So high prices and spot shortages are yet another stress on the world's ailing food system.

(continued)

The rising price is a burden on rich and poor farmers alike as they represent a big investment upfront, despite high world prices for crops. If all goes well, a farmer can earn $3 for every $1 invested in fertilizer.


source: New threat to food system: pricey fertilizer


Populism is giving the people what they want even if it is bad for them.

-- Pakistan's first civilian government since a 1999 army coup may expand food and power subsidies as the fastest inflation in at least 25 years erodes growth.

Increased government spending on populist measures may blow out the budget deficit to as much as 7.5 percent of gross domestic product, the widest in Asia, said Zainab Jabbar, an analyst at IGI Securities in Karachi. Finance minister Naveed Qamar, appointed less than five weeks ago, is due to present the 2008-09 budget in Islamabad on June 11.

``All indications are that political considerations will dominate fiscal policy,'' Jabbar said. ``Confusion over dates and retractions of announcements are redolent of instability within the political and fiscal framework.''

Pakistan's coalition government has changed the date for its budget two times in the past six days, giving no reasons for the delays. Confusion over who is managing the $146 billion economy may deter much-needed foreign investment, which has already fallen this fiscal year for the first time since at least 2004.

Moody's Investors Service on May 21 cut Pakistan's credit rating for the first time in nine years, citing ``growing economic imbalances and renewed political difficulties.'' Standard & Poor's also reduced its rating on May 15, making it more costly for Pakistan to finance its budget gap.


Source: Pakistan May Boost Subsidies as Deficit Exceeds Limit

In a year when global harvests need to be excellent to ease the threat of pervasive food shortages, evidence is mounting that they will be average at best. Some farmers are starting to fear disaster.

American corn and soybean farmers are suffering from too much rain, while Australian wheat farmers have been plagued by drought.

"The planting has gotten off to a poor start," said Bill Nelson, a Wachovia grains analyst. "The anxiety level is increasing."

(continued)

Last winter, as the full scope of the global food crisis became clear, commodity prices doubled or tripled, provoking grumbling in America, riots in two dozen countries and the specter of greatly increased malnutrition.

As the world clamors for more corn, wheat, soybeans and rice, farmers are trying to meet the challenge. Millions of acres are coming back into production in Europe. In Asia, planting two or three crops in a single year is becoming more common.

(continued)

The world wheat harvest is forecast to rise more than 8 percent this year, thanks to better weather and more acreage under cultivation. But even this bright spot is tentative. Australia was expected to emerge from a two-year drought, but that prediction is looking somewhat doubtful.

With the exception of southwestern Australia and a small corner of southeastern Australia, little rain has fallen in recent months. Many wheat farmers have been unable to plant at all, said Bob Iffla, the chairman of the country's Wheat Growers Association.

As a result, the harvest is likely to be below average: 5 million to 15 million tons of wheat available for export, compared with 17 million or 18 million tons in an average year.




source: Worries mount as world's farmers push for big harvest
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