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Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 23:39:25

Soooo, the article you are referencing is based on a NOAA study, one conclusion from which is:

...In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.


Do you accept that conclusion, or only the ones that fit your preconceived notions?

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/

Also, though the main focus of the study was on Atlantic cyclones, they do then turn to the global situation toward the end, and conclude that there can be detected:

..an increase in average cyclone intensity, the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 9) and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates


Again, do you accept this conclusion from the same study you are basing your other claims on?
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Breaking Waves

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 11 Jun 2018, 11:20:49

Paul B. on wavy action........surfers all over are bound to be thrilled :-D
Always look on the bright side of life :roll:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osqmucGflcQ

In this video, and the last three I have gone into great detail on how wave energy from recent storms has the ability to chew up coastlines, including moving huge boulders weighing as much as 620 metric tons. Cities on coastlines around the world will not just suffer from the inexorable rise of global sea level, but will be pummelled by massive waves from huge intense storms on top of king tides on top of storm surge on top of land subsidence on top of rising sea levels from abrupt climate change.


Wave energy has gone up, abruptly alike Climate Change.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqE8VWzSb0s

turns out that “Storms of our Grandchildren” are already here today. In fact these storms are already reconfiguring our coastlines. If you live in a coastal city you are likely aware that rising sea levels, large and intense storms with their associated storm surges, combined with king tides and perhaps even land subsidence are encroaching and damaging houses, streets, bridges, high-rises; in fact all infrastructure is threatened. The energy in recent storms is enormous, and has moved enormous boulders weighing as much as 620 tons in Ireland.


Part 1 out of 4.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 11 Jun 2018, 15:00:02

dohboi wrote:Soooo, the article you are referencing is based on a NOAA study, one conclusion from which is:

...In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.


Do you accept that conclusion, or only the ones that fit your preconceived notions?

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/

Also, though the main focus of the study was on Atlantic cyclones, they do then turn to the global situation toward the end, and conclude that there can be detected:

..an increase in average cyclone intensity, the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 9) and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates


Again, do you accept this conclusion from the same study you are basing your other claims on?


I accept and put more trust in Dr. Landsea's comment from being based on observation over the "strong body of evidence" jargon of the IPCC, which can only be based upon models as the observations do support the IPCC conclusions. So do you believe models constitute a "strong body of evidence" over actual observation? I do not.

“It’s very difficult to say how hurricanes are now versus 100 years ago. We’re still challenged today in knowing how strong a hurricane is, even in 2018,” said Landsea.

Landsea understands the climate is changing and the oceans are warming, but doesn’t see a direct link to the frequency or intensity of storms.
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Actual Observation

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 11 Jun 2018, 15:33:49

Jawa, there is overwhelming evidence of intensifying storms, displacement of the biggest boulders were always thought to have been caused by rare tsunami's, now we are beginning to understand what abrupt CC means, we see boulders up to 600 tons moved by giant waves, this decade, now if you will.
Which is only the beginning, wait until next decade when the sea ice up North is gone which is very likely the point when TSHTF.
Actual observation, you can personally verify by looking at the pics, those of Ireland are amazing.....
Storms of grandchildren are here now, 2 generationsearly, say 50 years?
Like the sea ice would not be gone this century........a modelling mistake?


jawagord wrote:
dohboi wrote:Soooo, the article you are referencing is based on a NOAA study, one conclusion from which is:

...In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.


Do you accept that conclusion, or only the ones that fit your preconceived notions?

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/

Also, though the main focus of the study was on Atlantic cyclones, they do then turn to the global situation toward the end, and conclude that there can be detected:

..an increase in average cyclone intensity, the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 9) and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates


Again, do you accept this conclusion from the same study you are basing your other claims on?


I accept and put more trust in Dr. Landsea's comment from being based on observation over the "strong body of evidence" jargon of the IPCC, which can only be based upon models as the observations do support the IPCC conclusions. So do you believe models constitute a "strong body of evidence" over actual observation? I do not.

“It’s very difficult to say how hurricanes are now versus 100 years ago. We’re still challenged today in knowing how strong a hurricane is, even in 2018,” said Landsea.

Landsea understands the climate is changing and the oceans are warming, but doesn’t see a direct link to the frequency or intensity of storms.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 11 Jun 2018, 19:59:21

Looks like jaw copied it without reading (or comprehending) it.

Again, based on observation, your study found an:

increase in:

• average cyclone intensity,

• the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 9)

• and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates


(my emphases and punctuation, in an attempt to help you with your apparent reading comprehension issues :) )

Global warming is, after all, well, global. So the behavior of cyclones in one particular basin is no more relevant to the global issues than a snowball thrown across the senate floor by some dimwit is to the general question of GW. :lol:
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 11 Jun 2018, 21:21:08

dohboi wrote:Looks like jaw copied it without reading (or comprehending) it.

Again, based on observation, your study found an:

increase in:

• average cyclone intensity,

• the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 9)

• and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates


(my emphases and punctuation, in an attempt to help you with your apparent reading comprehension issues :) )

Global warming is, after all, well, global. So the behavior of cyclones in one particular basin is no more relevant to the global issues than a snowball thrown across the senate floor by some dimwit is to the general question of GW. :lol:


To be honest I've only read the bolded parts of the report, seems to confirm the observation vs model conjecture if I comprehend these sentences correctly?

In short, the historical Atlantic hurricane record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.

the hurricane model also projects that the lifetime maximum intensity of Atlantic hurricanes will increase by about 5% during the 21st century
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 00:55:46

I get it, you're obsessed with the Atlantic.

Did you know that there are actually other places in the world where cyclones exist?

And that when assessing the global effects of a global phenomena, it is necessary to look at more than just one part of the globe?

Think about that for a few months or however long it takes for it to penetrate the old cerebellum...then get back to me...or don't...doesn't really matter

Ciao! :)
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby jawagord » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 07:05:38

dohboi wrote:I get it, you're obsessed with the Atlantic.

Did you know that there are actually other places in the world where cyclones exist?

And that when assessing the global effects of a global phenomena, it is necessary to look at more than just one part of the globe?

Think about that for a few months or however long it takes for it to penetrate the old cerebellum...then get back to me...or don't...doesn't really matter

Ciao! :)


Not obsessed with the Atlantic, the article says it is mostly about the Atlantic. The Cyclone predictions are from models again, which gets us back to observation vs GIGO models.

From your link:

The main focus of this web page is on Atlantic hurricane activity and global warming. However, an important question concerns whether global warming has or will substantially affect tropical cyclone activity in other basins.

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates will likely increase in the future due to anthropogenic warming rates will likely increase in the future due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content.Models project an increase on the order of 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario.

Tropical cyclone intensities globally will likely increase on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 08:38:37

Oh never mind. You've made it abundantly clear that you are only interested in data that confirms your position, however narrowly you have to look to find it.

I won't try to bother you with logic or reason any more, since you are obviously oblivious to such things.

Ciao! :)
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 13 Jun 2018, 08:13:14

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05324-5

observed tracking speeds have declined by up to 30% for some locations

When cyclones moves slower, it allows much more rain to fall on a particular location, just ask Houston! :?

More here:

“ … the weight of the evidence suggests that the thirty-year-old prediction of more intense and wetter tropical cyclones is coming to pass … ”

“The average location where the storms are reaching their peak intensity is also slowly migrating poleward … “

“ .. the coming decades are likely to bring hurricanes that intensify more rapidly … Rapid intensification, especially in the last 24 hours before landfall, leaves people less time to prepare for a hurricane’s impacts. And even people who know a storm is coming may not be ready for how much more intense the storm is when it arrives.”

“ … slower-moving hurricanes (those with a slower tracking speed as a whole) are being observed. (A slower storm will take longer to pass any given location along its track, and consequently will tend to do more damage.)

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05324-5

http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/g ... hurricanes
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 13 Jun 2018, 14:29:24

https://robertscribbler.com/

Handy overview from RS......

Recent research by Stephan Rahmstorf and others shows that hurricanes are growing stronger due to human-caused climate change. Unfortunately, this is not the only destruction-enhancing impact. Due to changes in atmospheric circulation, the forward speed of hurricanes is also slowing down. Which makes their destructive effects last longer over a given region.


According to new research published by Nature and written by James Kossin, the forward speed of hurricanes in the tropics is slowing down. This slow-down is driven by a weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation. Such weakening has been identified by climate studies for decades and is associated with a warming climate.

As the Earth warms, the Hadley Cell expands and slows, the poles warm faster than the lower latitudes generating more blocking patterns in the middle latitudes, and the Walker Cell also slows down. The net effect is that steering currents for hurricanes are weaker, which reduces their forward speed.


Since storms are already increasing in intensity due to warming ocean surfaces, rainfall rates and wind speeds are on the rise. However, these much more powerful storms are becoming brutally slow. The net effect is a pretty terrible combination for cities and regions facing the climate change enhanced storms of today and tomorrow.
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