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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Tue 06 Mar 2018, 06:11:50

@onlooker.
>we would all be interested
o rly? show me how interested u are in my agw views. By recalling them. I posted a few hundred times on this forum from about 2008-2011, and said everything i wanted to say.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby chilyb » Tue 06 Mar 2018, 13:06:29

peakoilwhen wrote:@onlooker.
>we would all be interested
o rly? show me how interested u are in my agw views. By recalling them. I posted a few hundred times on this forum from about 2008-2011, and said everything i wanted to say.


I do not recall, nor am I even remotely interested!
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 06 Mar 2018, 14:12:23

peakoilwhen wrote:@onlooker.
>we would all be interested
o rly? show me how interested u are in my agw views. By recalling them. I posted a few hundred times on this forum from about 2008-2011, and said everything i wanted to say.

As you can see, I only joined in 2013. Suffice to say I am only interested in knowing whether you believe in AGW or not?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 06 Mar 2018, 15:45:30

....

In an attempt to get back to our tragic topic...

“Parts of northern Alaska were 43°F warmer than normal yesterday.
This isn’t even that unusual anymore.
Without sea ice to insulate the Arctic, a state-change is underway. The Arctic is a fundamentally different place now.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 8737873920
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Right on topic....

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 09 Mar 2018, 13:28:47

To add to the attempt,

Thanks to Cid, Jennifer F interview with Nick B.

http://envisionation.co.uk/index.php/ni ... er-francis

The jet stream is responsible for what kind of weather we experience and it’s behaviour is changing. Dr Jennifer Francis, a research professor at Rutgers University's Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, explains how a combination of factors are going to drastically impact agricultural systems in Europe and Eurasia.

It is easy to look at the fires in southern Europe and think that “global warming” is a regional problem often on someone else doorstep. This misconception could not be further from the truth because the “global” bit refers only to global mean temperature. As scientists start to look at what is happening around the world, it becomes very clear that the interconnected global system is changing for all.

Nick Breeze: How would you describe the role of the jet stream in our weather system?

Jennifer Francis: The jet stream is what controls all of our weather. Whether it is cold, warm, wet, dry, the recent research is starting to explain in more detail how climate change in general is influencing the jet stream in the neighbourhood of Europe.

There are a lot of pieces to this puzzle and they differ whether we are talking about winter or summer. We are learning that the effects of climate change on the jet stream in the neighbourhood of Europe and Eurasia in general really depends on other we are talking about winter or summer and different areas but the overriding connection is that we expect to see weather patterns become more persistent.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 09 Mar 2018, 16:54:46

Cid_Yama wrote:This movement has pushed the cold out and to lower latitudes. Soon there will be little cold to push out. But until then, expect highly energetic weather systems in the mid latitudes.


It's warm up there alrighty! FYI the land and ocean above the Arctic circle get no sun for six months of the year, it will always get mind numbingly cold there even if it is warmer. Unusual Weather due to Jet stream blocking patterns have been around forever it's not something new.

Yukon Arctic ultra-race under fire as Italian competitor awaits amputation of hands and feet.
Roberto Zanda was one of only three competitors left on the 480 km course in February when he made a fateful decision to abandon his sled.

This year’s edition of the 480 kilometre slog, across frozen rivers, up and down mountain steeps and along fir tree-lined dogsled tracks, in February, was among the coldest on record, with temperatures touching -50 degrees Celsius.


http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/yuk ... s-and-feet

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/l ... ows/blocks
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latest,recent Jim White on abrupt CC

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 11 Mar 2018, 09:45:22

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lgh3Obf4LeA

Kinda long intro but still worth a watch.........

Gepubliceerd op 6 feb. 2018

Jim White from the University of Colorado, on climate change, January 2018. Human activities are summarized in this recent lecture.

The talk title is "Why Is Everything Melting So Fast??" and was given at the Weather and Climate Summit, Breckenridge, Colorado, USA on Tues-Thurs 16-18 Jan 2018. Dr. Jim White is the Director, Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado. Talk slides http://www.stormcenter.com/wxcsummit/...

Categorie
Wetenschap en technologie
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Stop doing....just sit and chill.......hihi

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 11 Mar 2018, 12:30:02

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3l9wI1Gvds&t=231s

Just some opinions at the table over a glas of wine.......
What to do now, our predicament, to be aware that we are beings on the way to our death.
Gives a view on who they are, why they do what they do....teach.

Gepubliceerd op 13 nov. 2017

http://www.guymcpherson.com
http://www.onlyloveremains.org

Conversation took place November 7, 2017
A conversation took place in Toronto with Paul Beckwith and Martin Halliwell.



Gepubliceerd op 13 nov. 2017

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDZ-SBnyxKY

Lecture at McMaster University, in Hamilton Ontario, Canada.

Short clip from Mad Max: Fury Road, Warner Brothers.
Music by Josh Kramer and Green Zebra
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 11 Mar 2018, 15:31:57

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIpALTYGQX4

Never thought I'd see rambling Hambone and Guy in one place, real time.....there it is.

Gepubliceerd op 12 nov. 2017


Hambone Littletail
Guy McPherson
Paul Jay
Michael Mann
Bill Maher


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1JYaDSDAEk

Gepubliceerd op 29 sep. 2016


Documentary about a rising movement to take on the climate crisis and fight the fossil fuel industry. Join the movement at http://350.org

CC-BY 350.org YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsIfo...

DIVESTMENT
http://gofossilfree.org
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 11 Mar 2018, 16:50:38

jawagord wrote:
Cid_Yama wrote:This movement has pushed the cold out and to lower latitudes. Soon there will be little cold to push out. But until then, expect highly energetic weather systems in the mid latitudes.


It's warm up there alrighty! FYI the land and ocean above the Arctic circle get no sun for six months of the year, it will always get mind numbingly cold there even if it is warmer. Unusual Weather due to Jet stream blocking patterns have been around forever it's not something new.

Yukon Arctic ultra-race under fire as Italian competitor awaits amputation of hands and feet.
Roberto Zanda was one of only three competitors left on the 480 km course in February when he made a fateful decision to abandon his sled.

This year’s edition of the 480 kilometre slog, across frozen rivers, up and down mountain steeps and along fir tree-lined dogsled tracks, in February, was among the coldest on record, with temperatures touching -50 degrees Celsius.


http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/yuk ... s-and-feet

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/l ... ows/blocks


Weather vs climate
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby jawagord » Sun 11 Mar 2018, 18:40:05

Newfie wrote:
jawagord wrote:
Cid_Yama wrote:This movement has pushed the cold out and to lower latitudes. Soon there will be little cold to push out. But until then, expect highly energetic weather systems in the mid latitudes.


It's warm up there alrighty! FYI the land and ocean above the Arctic circle get no sun for six months of the year, it will always get mind numbingly cold there even if it is warmer. Unusual Weather due to Jet stream blocking patterns have been around forever it's not something new.

Yukon Arctic ultra-race under fire as Italian competitor awaits amputation of hands and feet.
Roberto Zanda was one of only three competitors left on the 480 km course in February when he made a fateful decision to abandon his sled.

This year’s edition of the 480 kilometre slog, across frozen rivers, up and down mountain steeps and along fir tree-lined dogsled tracks, in February, was among the coldest on record, with temperatures touching -50 degrees Celsius.


http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/yuk ... s-and-feet

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/l ... ows/blocks


Weather vs climate


Only when it's Cold Weather, warm weather is Climate Change, right Newf? [smilie=3some.gif]
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 11 Mar 2018, 19:19:23

No!
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One more video......abrupt change new normal

Unread postby Whitefang » Tue 13 Mar 2018, 07:04:07

One last YouTube, this time James White, Anthony Barnosky and Richard Alley


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJshFfEKj80

Gepubliceerd op 7 dec. 2017

Documentary,2017,
Follow ClimateState on facebook for climate research National Research Council: Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: .

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Mr White....

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 09:46:07

Jim White states that there are only 3 or 4 sites that monitor methane in the arcticand that NOA is even reducing the handfull of locations in their monitoring program.......at around 41 minutes on the above YouTube video.

Possibly the most important event of the last 250 million years, since the great dying, and our human response is to cover it up?
If this turn out the most lethal extinction event it would be the most important issue since complex life started, over half a billion years ago, or even since life evolved billions of years ago.

Why do the scientists not simply use methanetracker? Not accurate or reliable data?

I think they do know what will happen the next few years, storms/heat/moisture along atmospheric huge rivers North on both Atlantic and Pacific during fall/winter and early spring.
That would stall weather with two cold poles when snow on land is present, Eurasia and Canadian Schield with GIS. Immense rain and snow on borders of warm and cold.

Well, maybe not, summer ice free will increase all greenhouse gasses as well, might have the same effect, more heat pumped in directly by the sun, only the GIS as as stable area of ice, the new cold pole during summer. Will not take decades before winter ice is history as well.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dissident » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 14:48:28

No it is not just 3 or 4 ground stations. They have satellite observations of the whole polar cap as well. Any enormous release of CH4 will be detectable at all ground stations in a matter of days and basically instantly in the satellite data.

This hiding CH4 tin foil hat retardation has to stop. Global warming proponents should not need to discredit themselves with inane speculation. Leave that to the deniers.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby chilyb » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 11:45:53

Hi dissident,

dissident wrote:No it is not just 3 or 4 ground stations. They have satellite observations of the whole polar cap as well. Any enormous release of CH4 will be detectable at all ground stations in a matter of days and basically instantly in the satellite data.

This hiding CH4 tin foil hat retardation has to stop. Global warming proponents should not need to discredit themselves with inane speculation. Leave that to the deniers.


I haven't watched the exact video that Whitefang posted with Jim White, but I have watched a couple other of his talks. Are you implying that Jim White is wearing a "CH4-hiding tin foil retardation hat?" (loosely quoted!) Or is that just my extrapolation based on connecting your comment above with what Whitefang said?

Jim White states that there are only 3 or 4 sites that monitor methane in the arcticand that NOA is even reducing the handfull of locations in their monitoring program.......at around 41 minutes on the above YouTube video.


I often read your comments on climate related issues, particularly regarding atmospheric chemistry, and I am interested to gain some more insight into your thoughts on this. Thanks!
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Missing Methane linky

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 14:24:54

Old paper from 2001, methane does rise up and falls apart.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 7701800211

We compare the noctilucent cloud time series, which indicate a strong upward trend in the 1964–1986 period, with changes expected of atmospheric water vapor at the mean height of the clouds (83 km). At this height, both methane-induced changes and 11-year solar-UV induced changes are expected to be the main forcings. Using the data available for surface methane and for solar Lyman-alpha fluxes, we estimate the water vapor changes due to methane oxidation, and to Lyman-α induced photodissociation of water vapor.


https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/me ... atmosphere

This graphic shows how methane, a greenhouse gas, boosts the abundance of water at the top of Earth's atmosphere. This water freezes around "meteor smoke" to form icy noctilucent clouds, or NLCs.


https://globalnews.ca/news/1265355/rare ... nasa-says/

TORONTO – Bright, shining, almost translucent clouds that were first spotted in 1885 are becoming more frequent and appearing at lower latitudes, new research from NASA has concluded.
The clouds, called noctilucent clouds, have historically been relegated to the poles. But during the 20th century, the clouds were wandering further south, between the 40th and 50th parallel.

READ MORE: ‘Tis the season for stunning night sky clouds

Last year, NASA reported that the start to noctilucent cloud season was far earlier than ever recorded.


http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2018/01/ ... rophe.html

On January 1, 2018, methane levels as high as 2764 ppb (parts per billion) were recorded. The solid magenta-colored areas near Greenland indicate that this very high reading was likely caused by methane hydrate destabilization in the sediments on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.


Magenta colored alarm on the arctic, up to 2700 ppb, indeed we have more measurements and it looks like a 2000 ppb concentration at 469 mbar from pole down to around 30 degrees NL.
Higest cencentrations the further North you go, maybe the polar bears are passing gas by the Gton for having a new diet, munching human leftovers instead of hunting seal....
Or those thousands of scientists on grounded stations are indulging in chilly con carne......
We have pics, testimony of sailors, measurements indication the source, sound evidence of permafrost that has started to leak. As predicted.

Either the Metop data is bogus and people seeing the not so rare anymore noctilucent clouds have a problem with the eyes, maybe they are all hallucinating?

The whole thing atarted with that estimated 3.5 Gton a year emission, a release enough to trigger abrupt climate change......Shakova presentation for Department of Defense, 2010?

Now that we are def. in a period of abrupt change, it seems plausible that methane is one of the key drivers behind it. Part of the arctic amplification including that wacky jet stream.
I'd love to check it all out for myself, I live at around 52 degrees NL but lots of light pollution and other masking stuff in the air so I do not think to get a clear view on those magic clouds.

I have to fall back on Metop data, methane tracker should do the trick as well.

https://robertscribbler.com/tag/methane-tracker/

August 4-7 saw a large and growing pulse of methane emerging from the Yedoma region of Russia and the Siberian Arctic over the past week. By Wednesday, about 30 percent of the Yedoma region was covered in methane readings exceeding 1950 parts per billion, according to measurements published through the online resource — Methane Tracker.

This pulse emerged in conjuction with late summer fires and heatwaves scorching this massive region of permafrost above or near the Arctic Circle. Yedoma includes a broad expanse of permafrost ranging from Siberia to a shallow sea known as the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. In total, this region is estimated to hold 500 gigatons of carbon locked in, now thawing, tundra.

The region has come under increased scrutiny and study during recent years as temperatures throughout the Arctic and especially in this area have rapidly risen due to human warming. While global temperatures have increased by an average of around .2 degrees Celsius per decade, temperatures in Yedoma have increased by more than twice that rate at a whopping .5 degrees Celsius per decade. As a result, most of the tundra, both land and shallow sea, is subjected to increasing heat forcing and is at greater risk of releasing large volumes of carbon into the atmosphere.

The geographic region of Yedoma and its related loess layers are indicated on the map below. Note the large off-shore region extending into the East Siberian Arctic Shelf:
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 09:34:51

Not directly connected to the immediate discussion going on here, but part of the larger issue of exacerbating feedbacks and methane connections... increased snowfall may well accelerate breakdown of permafrost and release of methane and CO2. i.e. positive feedback. Two examples below.

Example 1
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 204625.htm

How permafrost thawing affects vegetation, carbon cycle
Study focuses on Toolik Lake area of Alaska's North Slope

Date: March 2, 2016
Source: University of Delaware
Summary:

Scientists are exploring how the thawing of permafrost affects vegetation and the carbon cycle in the Toolik Lake area of Alaska's North Slope.

Climate models predict 25-50 percent more precipitation in the Arctic region by the end of the century, mostly as fall and winter snow. However, extra snow can also mean extra moisture during warmer seasons like spring and summer.

Snow fence experiment

During fieldwork, the scientists used an existing snow fence that had been in place for 18 years to explore what changes in average snow accumulation might mean for the Toolik Lake area.

Typical winter snowfall depth in the area is about one foot. The snow fence, which stands approximately 9 feet high by 200 feet long, was built perpendicular to the wind direction so that snowdrifts would form behind the fence. This allowed the researchers to mimic various snowfall accumulations for the region, from below normal to average to much higher levels of winter precipitation.

Snow blanket means longer growing season for plants

As they reviewed the data, the researchers discovered that in areas with increased winter precipitation, the ground didn't freeze as deeply because the snow acted like a blanket, keeping the ground warmer than normal.

Their findings showed that higher snow accumulations resulted in increased soil temperatures and a deeper thawing of the permafrost, which, in turn, resulted in increased microbial activity, increased melting depth and more water content in the soil that led to increased production of methane and more plant growth.

In areas with reduced snow accumulation, however, the soil acted as a methane sink because of enhanced activity of methane-oxidizing bacteria.

When the snow melted, scientists noted a longer growing season for plants and shrubs. In areas with higher snow, the soil also collapsed when the ice that was occupying the soil's pore space melted, causing depressions in the ground.

"It affected more than just the amount of methane produced, it changed the landscape and the types of plants that grew there. We started seeing woody plants -- dwarf trees like birch and other shrubs -- instead of just moss, lichens and grass."


Example 2
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.10 ... 091004/pdf

Abstract
The dramatic shrinkage of Arctic sea ice is one of the starkest symptoms of global warming, withpotentially severe and far-reaching impacts on arctic marine and terrestrial ecology (Postet al 2013 Science 341 519–24) and northern hemisphere climate (Screen et al 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 084006).

In their recent article, Alexeev et al (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 074022) highlight another,
and unexpected, consequence of Arctic sea ice retreat: the thinning of lake ice in northern Alaska. This is attributed to early winter‘ocean effect’snowfall which insulates lake surfaces and inhibits the formation of deep lake ice. Lake ice thinning has important consequences for Arctic lake hydrology, biology and permafrost degradation......

....they show that impacts from an open Arctic Ocean in autumn are both direct, through
increased air temperature and precipitation, and indirect, through inhibiting bedfast ice formation in lakes leading to localised permafrost degradation and talik formation


Thanks for links and text to gerontocrat at asif.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 20:50:58

dohboi wrote:....part of the larger issue of exacerbating feedbacks and methane connections... increased snowfall may well accelerate breakdown of permafrost and release of methane and CO2. i.e. positive feedback. ....
Example 1
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 204625.htm

How permafrost thawing affects vegetation, carbon cycle
Study focuses on Toolik Lake area of Alaska's North Slope

Date: March 2, 2016
Source: University of Delaware
Summary:

]Scientists are exploring how the thawing of permafrost affects vegetation and the carbon cycle in the Toolik Lake area of Alaska's North Slope.

Climate models predict 25-50 percent more precipitation in the Arctic region by the end of the century, mostly as fall and winter snow. However, extra snow can also mean extra moisture during warmer seasons like spring and summer.


Good find, Doh.

In addition to more snowfall, another important factor is that trees, brush and other vegetation is spreading into areas farther north, effectively colonizing and transforming huge areas of Arctic tundra here in northern Alaska as the climate warms. The new vegetation effectively acts as a natural snow fence, protecting snow from the wind and resulting in thicker winter snowpack and warmer tundra soils year round.

More vegetation is another feedback effect that is warming the soil, and thawing permafrost, leading to the release of ever more CO2, which warms the climate etc.

NASA: alaska-tundra-carbon-emissions
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 21:44:01

dohboi wrote:....

In an attempt to get back to our tragic topic...

“Parts of northern Alaska were 43°F warmer than normal yesterday.
This isn’t even that unusual anymore.
Without sea ice to insulate the Arctic, a state-change is underway. The Arctic is a fundamentally different place now.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 8737873920


Time to crank up the same kind of adaptability we once cranked up when the ice sheets began melting (and obviously they aren't done yet!) and get with the program! We got through the last ..what was it....5 - 10C? increase? So screw getting ready for like the next 2C, lets just be a little conservative just in case and prep for 4C!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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