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Saudi Aramco IPO

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (ARAMCO) pt 3

Unread postby Peak_Yeast » Thu 18 Jan 2018, 20:01:55

@Rockdoc: Where do you see your profit coming from when purchasing these shares?
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Re: THE Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (ARAMCO) pt 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 18 Jan 2018, 20:43:12

@Rockdoc: Where do you see your profit coming from when purchasing these shares?


You would be buying it believing at some point the share price would rise due to a host of possibilities, higher prices, improved recoveries, continued demonstration of replacement of proved producing reserves. As well at some point they might offer up more shares on the market which you would hope the new higher price would increase share demand better than any dilution. The possibility that they would offer a dividend (which other companies that could be peers do..eg Exxon Mobil or Shell) at some point would be quite attractive.
Unlike IPOs in the tech industry where it is often hard to get your arms around the value of what they are selling is once you are sure what Aramco's reserves are and their free cash flow valuation is much easier.
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Re: THE Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (ARAMCO) pt 3

Unread postby GASMON » Fri 19 Jan 2018, 05:26:09

Good luck to you Rockdoc, a bit of a gamble seeing what is going on right now in KSA - billionaires hung upside down and all that !!

https://www.dailysabah.com/mideast/2017 ... lal-report

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/why-sau ... ntary.html

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In Search Of Investors, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Is Comin

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 22:16:30

Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, will be leaving his kingdom next month for a three-week charm tour. His agenda hasn’t yet been revealed, but sources say MbS (as he’s known) will start his tour March 7 in London, then head to New York, Washington, San Francisco and maybe even Texas. It was supposed to be his father, King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, 82, visiting the United States, as agreed in a phone call between him and President Donald Trump last September. But the monarch has allowed himself to be sidelined, to underscore that his 33-year-old crown prince is the one running the show. Prince Mohammed is handsome, charismatic and sports a luxurious beard. He’s imposing, like his 6’4” grandfather, Ibn Saud, the founding King. The last time the prince came to the U.S., in


In Search Of Investors, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Is Coming To America
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Saudi Aramco CEO Promises IPO And No End To The Age Of Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 13:46:15


The IPO of Saudi Aramco is “proceeding very well,” CEO Amin Nasser told the crowd at the CERAWeek conference here in Houston today. He didn’t elaborate much, saying that the ultimate decision to take the plunge would lay with the Saudi government — namely Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. A domestic listing on Riyadh’s Tadawul exchange would be the easiest avenue, though sources close to the Saudis say there’s a real desire for shares to trade in New York, London or Hong Kong. Nasser insisted that the world is far from seeing Peak Oil demand. “Oil will maintain its key role in the global energy mix for the forseeable future,” he said, given that 99% of all vehicles on the road remain powered by internal combustion engines. To meet that need, said Nasser, the industry must invest $20 trillion in oilfield capex over the


Saudi Aramco CEO Promises IPO And No End To The Age Of Oil
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Cog » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 15:40:25

I'll be staking a position in the Saudi IPO when it comes about. Not a huge one but sizable. People seem to forget that Saudi Arabia spokesmen can control rises and falls in this new stock offering at a whim. I intend to take advantage of that.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 17:06:54

I too will be looking to buy some Aramco. I do believe, however, that the IPO will be fully subscribed by insiders so when it breaks on the market it will run higher so fast that the chances of getting a good price are seriously diminished. What usually happens is the initial enthusiasm lasts for a day or two and then the stock drops back to the IPO price or close to it. That is what I'm looking for and will buy in then.
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Saudi Oil Minister Says Aramco IPO Could Be Delayed to 2019

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 17:08:41


Saudi Arabia’s energy minister hinted the initial public offering of the state oil company Aramco could be delayed until 2019, pushing back a central plank of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plan to modernize the economy. Khalid Al-Falih also said the IPO, potentially the largest ever, would be “anchored” by a listing on Saudi Arabia’s local exchange and any international listing would be announced in due course, if at all. “Between December 31st and January 1st there is no value lost for the kingdom,” Al-Falih said in an interview in London. “So, I don’t see this artificial deadline that you refer to as being significant.” Until recently, Saudi officials insisted the IPO was “on track, on time” for 2018, but two months into the year that deadline is looking harder to meet. Still, Al-Falih, who also serves as Aramco’s chairman, insisted the company


Saudi Oil Minister Says Aramco IPO Could Be Delayed to 2019
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 21:18:30

Finally some details to counter all the bullshit regarding the value of a potential Aramco IPO. Might be a tad difficult to follow if one isn't familiar with huge foreign stock transactions, From

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/canad ... 8-article/

Reuters - "Saudi Arabia is increasingly looking to just float oil giant Saudi Aramco locally as plans for an initial public offering (IPO) on an international exchange such as London or New York hang in the balance, sources close to the process said.The kingdom is counting on being awarded emerging market status by index complier MSCI in June to help Saudi Aramco attract Western funds, in addition to cornerstone investors from China, Japan and South Korea, the sources said. "I would guess it is about evens that there will be no international IPO," said a high-level source familiar with the preparations, saying they were proving to be a disappointment.

Saudi Arabia is planning to list up to 5 percent of Saudi Aramco in an initial public offering that could value it at up to $2 trillion and make it the world's biggest oil company by market capitalisation. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said last week that Aramco was too important to risk listing in the United States because of litigation concerns, such as existing lawsuits against rival oil companies for their role in climate change."

And the likely reason for not doing the IPO on a London or US exchange: "While London is preferred over New York, the requirement by both for greater disclosure of sensitive information on Aramco than the Hong Kong exchange is viewed as a drawback by some Saudi officials and advisers, the sources said."

Yep, nothing like investing big $'s in the stock of a company that can keep details of its operations a secret. LOL
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 22:11:17

And the likely reason for not doing the IPO on a London or US exchange: "While London is preferred over New York, the requirement by both for greater disclosure of sensitive information on Aramco than the Hong Kong exchange is viewed as a drawback by some Saudi officials and advisers, the sources said."

Yep, nothing like investing big $'s in the stock of a company that can keep details of its operations a secret. LOL


In the end all the "saudi officals and advisors" have little to do with a decision. It will be made by the crown prince, if he wants a listing in the UK to happen it will, if he doesn't it won't. Personally, I think this is a lot of interviews with "insiders" who actually know zip about what is going on. There is no way the Saudis haven't understood the requirements for disclosure both in New York and London....it is the only reason they put together extensive audited financial accounts for Aramco and had GCA and D&M audit their reserves independently. If they were worried about disclosure then why would they have gone down that road in the first place? It's not like the listing rules are somehow secret or have changed recently.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Cog » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 07:04:15

The crown prince is meeting with Trump shortly. I'm thinking the topic will come up.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 27 May 2018, 15:48:10

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ye ... commander/

Yemeni Army has database of ‘Saudi economic targets’ – commander
By News Desk - 27/05/2018

A major commander in the Yemeni Armed Forces was interviewed by the Tasnim News Agency on Sunday; he would discuss a number of topics, including the ongoing war and Saudi Arabia’s participation.

Colonel Aziz Rashid told Tasnim that his forces have an entire database of Saudi economic targets, which could come under attack at any moment from their missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV).....
*****************
To proof he is correct his missile force needs a >big hit< the whole world feels.

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KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:00:26

The WSJ is reporting that Saudi Arabia is not going to go through with its plan to sell shares in Aramco and its oil assets

doubts-grow-aramco-ipo-will-ever-happen-

The sale has already been postposed several times. The reason its looking like the whole things is going to be cancelled is that Saudi is unwilling to disclose information about the condition of their oil assets and oil reserves, apparently because they don't want the world to know how close to depletion Ghawar and their other legacy oil fields are in.

This is consistent with news reports that KSA is telling Trump its impossible for them to raise their production to bring down oil prices.

IF KSA production can't be raised any higher, then that is big red flag.

It suggests KSA has peaked

If KSA is now backing out of their planned IPO because they don't want show anyone else their books...

It suggests KSA oilfields are in trouble, and production is at or near the peak.

I repeat---its looks like this is it. It looks like KSA IS AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK RIGHT NOW.

Cheers!
Last edited by Plantagenet on Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:14:45, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Pops » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:09:53

I think this is where I came in...
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby jawagord » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:10:38

When has KSA ever produced 12 mmBBL/D?
https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arab ... production
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:15:56

Plantagenet wrote:The WSJ is reporting that Saudi Arabia is not going to go through with its plan to sell shares in Aramco and its oil assets

doubts-grow-aramco-ipo-will-ever-happen-

The sale has already been postposed several times. The reason its looking like the whole things is going to be cancelled is that Saudi is unwilling to disclose information about the condition of their oil assets and oil reserves, apparently because they don't want the world to know how close to depletion Ghawar and their other legacy oil fields are in.

That's one possible reason.

Another is that the Saudis now (in view of recent months of price action and relative global supply / demand factors) believe the odds are good that average oil prices will be persistently high in coming decades (say well above $100), and that they'd rather take some risk and have all that income for themselves.

And they can mitigate quite a bit of risk by selling lots of oil futures over a variety of expiration timeframes if/when the price spikes "high enough". They have plenty of credit. If they sell "high" and the price goes higher, then they're getting much more cash flow from what they sell short term. If they sell "high" and the price pulls back a lot, they can take big profits on that pullback.

It's kind of like one of those "you have to have money to make money" scenarios, to me. Of course, they shouldn't overdo it.

...

One thing about the global oil outlook -- just wait a month or three, and it will change, apparently.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:24:52, edited 1 time in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:20:58

jawagord wrote:When has KSA ever produced 12 mmBBL/D?
https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arab ... production


Just five days ago KSA said they could raise their production by 2 million bbls/day to 12 million barrels/day.

saudi-king-said-will-boost-oil-output-if-needed-

Now they are saying forget about that--- they can't do it. And whats more, forget about the IPO they've been preparing too. They're not going to do that either. They don't want anybody else to see the books or check those claims about oil reserves, don't you know, because their claims might be specious and they might get sued for lying about their oil reserves.

Saudi lying about their oil reserves? Why, perish the thought! 8) :lol: :) :-D :!:

Cheers!
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:42:35

The sale has already been postposed several times. The reason its looking like the whole things is going to be cancelled is that Saudi is unwilling to disclose information about the condition of their oil assets and oil reserves, apparently because they don't want the world to know how close to depletion Ghawar and their other legacy oil fields are in.


Please quote from the article where it says that. Aramco had external third party audits done on their reserves by Gaffney & Cline and DeGolyer MacNaughton. The statement from G&C was that the reserves were in line with what Aramco had been saying all along. Those reports would have been filed with the normal documents leading up to an IPO and would become public once the IPO was completed.

and what does Aramco have to say?

Officials with Aramco, which is short for Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the country's energy ministry or government did not immediately respond to request for comment.


-and if there was a potential problem with their reserves then why would Aramco go and get two third party independent audits done? Why would they bother trying to do an IPO when they fully understand the disclosure requirements of the two main international exchanges they were looking to list on? That makes absolutely no sense at all.

This is consistent with news reports that KSA is telling Trump its impossible for them to raise their production to bring down oil prices. 


Yeah, right. Please show us where that news report is. Saudi Arabia is part of OPEC and they cannot independently decide to raise production and still maintain any control of the organization (they have been largely the ones reigning in production from other members). If the Saudis independently opened up the taps so would other OPEC members and then the market would be a complete mess. SA already agreed to raise production by 1 MMbpd at the OPEC meeting in May. Trump is almost certainly making it all up when he states the Saudis agreed to his request to raise production by 2 MMbbls/d...it is more likely they talked in generalities about keeping the market stable and replacing production lost to sanctions when necessary (which would be more in keeping with the ways of negotiation in the Arab world). I am sure the Saudis are happy with oil prices are currently, demand is still high and their market share has not been eroded.
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:50:38

The sale has already been postposed several times.


Please quote from the article where it says that.


No problemo. Here is a direct quote from the WSJ article addressing your question:

"First proposed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in January 2016, the IPO was originally meant to be done last year. It has been pushed back several times and was most recently slated for next year."

Cheers!
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 18:03:39

The highest production KSA ever attained was 10.3 million bbls/day back in April 2015.

Apparently they can't get it back up again. The NY Times is reporting that most experts believe they would have a hard time just getting production back up to that level, and getting production up to 11 or 12 million bbls/day is well night impossible without a massive drilling program, which isn't happening.

nytimes: oil-saudi-arabia


And if KSA can't exceed their peak production from April 2015, then Saudi has peaked.

-----------------------------------------------------------

At the same time this is going the WSJ publishes a blockbuster article saying KSA isn''t going through with their much ballyhooed sale of Aramco because they fear doing full disclosure on the nature of their oil reserves.

I quote from the WSJ article below:

Saudi officials and people close to the process say the company and the country simply aren’t ready for an IPO that could raise $100 billion but also bring unprecedented scrutiny to the kingdom’s crown jewel.

“Everyone is almost certain it is not going to happen,” said a senior executive at Aramco, speaking of the IPO.

Aramco executives and outside advisers have become more vocal in recent months about telling Prince Mohammed about the problems with listing the company, government officials said.

Saudi officials say they have determined that listing on a large stock exchange in New York, London or Hong Kong would carry too many legal risks, exposing Aramco to shareholder lawsuits


Cheers!
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