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THE Ozone Thread (merged)

Re: Nature: Dramatic Increase in Arctic Ozone Hole

Unread postby ritter » Tue 11 Oct 2011, 11:33:11

dohboi wrote:Here's another little something for you, wf:

http://www.huliq.com/10282/weather-freakish-remainder-2011-due-massive-global-warming

Weather "freakish" for remainder of 2011 due to massive global warming

The melting Arctic is a ticking time bomb for the Earth’s climate – and thanks to the world’s failure to reduce greenhouse-gas pollution, the fuse has already been lit -- with scientists also warning that a warmer Arctic will produce more dangerous and “freakish” weather worldwide in 2011 and 2012.


Glad the freakish weather will end after 2012! :-D

It is so disheartening that nothing has been done to slow this thing down. At this point, adaptation is the only strategy and it's not a very good one--sort of like hoping for a trampoline after you've driven off the cliff.

The expedition to the ESAS led by Semiletov should be returning in the next week. Perhaps we'll get some meaningful news on methane emissions shortly thereafter.
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Re: Nature: Dramatic Increase in Arctic Ozone Hole

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 11 Oct 2011, 14:58:00

How do you know that they are getting back next week? In this age, being at sea should not be a barrier to communication, in any case. (Though perhaps it still is in the metaphorical sense '-)
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Re: Nature: Dramatic Increase in Arctic Ozone Hole

Unread postby ritter » Tue 11 Oct 2011, 15:43:56

dohboi wrote:How do you know that they are getting back next week?


I hav my vays.

The article indicated a 45-day expedition, beginning September 2nd. While math is not my strongest subject, I can figure that one out (at least approximately).
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Re: Nature: Dramatic Increase in Arctic Ozone Hole

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 11 Oct 2011, 21:34:41

I missed that detail. Thanks.
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Re: Nature: Dramatic Increase in Arctic Ozone Hole

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 12 Oct 2011, 10:30:48

Hey, according to 2010 models, the Ozone were set to recover this century:


http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2 ... 3857.shtml

The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as temporally varying chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in accordance with observations for the past and expectations for the future. The ozone results are analyzed using a nonparametric additive statistical model. Comparisons are made with observations for the recent past, and the recovery of ozone


So it seems that they just play dumb and ignorant on the methane issue, this JF Lamarque wrote a paper on PT Boundary Ozone collapse and even one on methane concentration and changes, a major cause of extinction.....

Interesting, these people building doomfloaters.........just happen to see this huge wooden ark while trucking along on a bridge at Dordrecht, NL:

Huibers’s ark is quite interesting. For example, he’s been building his ark for three years at a cost of $1.6 million; he’s building it as close as possible to the exact specifications laid out in the Bible; it can hold 1,500 people; and it may even make an appearance at the 2012 Olympics. Unfortunately for the Netherlands, and especially the city of Dordrecht, which has been hard-hit by floods several times in its history, Huibers’ ominous dream of 20 years ago has become more of a reality. In the Oscar-winning documentary ‘An Inconvenient Truth,’ former U.S. Vice President Al Gore warned of the future melting of Greenland’s ice, which he said would be ‘absolutely devastating’ to the low-lying Netherlands,” added the recent report on theblaze.com.

My personal life raft would be a few weeks survival training and then head NW Canada to an area that is used to lots of rain. Sweden would be plan B.
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Re: Nature: Dramatic Increase in Arctic Ozone Hole

Unread postby dissident » Wed 12 Oct 2011, 19:30:06

Whitefang wrote:Hey, according to 2010 models, the Ozone were set to recover this century:

So it seems that they just play dumb and ignorant on the methane issue, this JF Lamarque wrote a paper on PT Boundary Ozone collapse and even one on methane concentration and changes, a major cause of extinction.....


It helps to know something about the field before attacking scientists as being clueless. The vortex interior ozone loss is due to the PSC processing with existing levels of chlorine (from CFCs). Chlorine is the primary agent of ozone loss and it is activated on polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particulates (nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) above 196 K, super-saturated ternary solutions (STS) between 188-196 K and ice for colder temperatures) through the release of Cl from reservoir species such as HCl and ClONO2 into active forms, Cl, ClO and Cl2O2 (http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/ ... 1-2010.pdf).

ESAS CH4 will affect ozone only when there are much higher concentrations than the current 1.8 ppmv. CH4 decomposes into CO2 and H2O in the stratosphere through both photolysis and reactions with OH. Only H2O can play a role under the right temperature conditions when the total PSC volume can be increased. Ozone cares primarily about chlorine and sulfate aerosols (these affect ozone at typical stratospheric temperatures and are the seeds for PSCs at low temperature). So geo-engineering schemes that plan to pump over 10 million tons of SO2 into the stratosphere every year will really act to destroy the ozone layer.

The conditions in the winter of 2010/2011 in the Arctic were a strong polar vortex with cold interior temperatures. This had two distinct effects on ozone loss:

1) Dynamical isolation of the polar vortex interior from mixing of mid-latitude air into the polar region. This is the same effect as with the Antarctic ozone hole. The reason why the Antarctic ozone hole has been a regular feature is that the Antarctic polar vortex is climatologically more intense than the Arctic vortex due to differences in the Rossby wave driving in the two hemispheres: there is less land mass in the southern hemisphere so the both the amplitude and spectrum of these waves is different.

2) Polar stratospheric cloud formation due to cold temperatures. The Arctic vortex is typically more disturbed and the amount of dynamical heating (think adiabatic descent of air parcels) is too high for all but some NAT formation. STS and ice are more effective surfaces for heterogenous chlorine chemistry.

The Montreal Protocol has been effective at reducing total chlorine in the stratosphere. There is already evidence of global total ozone recovery and as the chlorine keeps dropping so will the ozone continue to increase. This does not preclude PSC mediated ozone loss developing at high latitudes even when the total ozone column in mid-latitudes will be higher than in 1960. The chemistry climate models predict an ozone recovery together with sporadic PSC induced reductions of ozone at polar latitudes primarily in the southern hemisphere.

What is silly about all the chatter about ESAS CH4 is that there is no evidence of any significant increase in the last year. Read all the posts about 3.5 Gt/year emissions last year which were claimed. The widely accepted and confirmed by observations CH4 source figure is 600 Mt/year. Where is the evidence for a six-fold increase? Given the 10+ year lifetime of CH4 it should have worked itself from the ESAS to New York, London and Tokyo after less than half a year and to Cape Town by now. There is nothing to indicate any such trend from the global CH4 (and other trace gases) monitoring network.
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Re: Nature: Dramatic Increase in Arctic Ozone Hole

Unread postby ritter » Thu 13 Oct 2011, 10:59:24

dissident wrote:What is silly about all the chatter about ESAS CH4 is that there is no evidence of any significant increase in the last year. Read all the posts about 3.5 Gt/year emissions last year which were claimed.


So Igor Semiletov and Natalia Shakhova are just making shit up? I get your point that methane aught to be showing up elsewhere, but I think it's pretty silly to assume you know more about it than these two.

http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/people/nshakhov
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/people/igorsm
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Re: Nature: Dramatic Increase in Arctic Ozone Hole

Unread postby dissident » Fri 14 Oct 2011, 07:44:23

ritter wrote:
dissident wrote:What is silly about all the chatter about ESAS CH4 is that there is no evidence of any significant increase in the last year. Read all the posts about 3.5 Gt/year emissions last year which were claimed.


So Igor Semiletov and Natalia Shakhova are just making shit up?


Strawman argument. The 3.5 Gt/year figure was an extrapolation of the peak CH4 outgassing, measured during the 2008 research, ship cruise over the 220,000 km^2 of the ESAS which they consider to be experiencing seabed permafrost loss. This silly upper bound has not been published in any peer reviewed article and was found by net weenies in a slide from a presentation given in November 2010.

ritter wrote:I get your point that methane aught to be showing up elsewhere, but I think it's pretty silly to assume you know more about it than these two.

http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/people/nshakhov
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/people/igorsm


Jesus H. Christ, can't you even find a single *instrument* observation from middle latitudes to confirm your CH4 doom religion.
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Re: Nature: Dramatic Increase in Arctic Ozone Hole

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 14 Oct 2011, 08:29:53

That is incorrect. Leifer's procedures for estimating the non gradual releases from the ESAS have been detailed in two different peer reviewed papers.

Geochemical and geophysical evidence of methane release over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf

Multibeam sonar mapping of Siberian seeps: Evaluating trends in
methane flux from shallow sub-sea permafrost


And it's not an upper bound, it is the estimate for the non gradual annual release of methane from the ESAS.

You don't know what you are talking about.
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Re: Nature: Dramatic Increase in Arctic Ozone Hole

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 14 Oct 2011, 08:39:11

Scientists from the Universities of Sheffield and Cambridge have discovered that Mother Nature caused a massive ozone depletion event, some 251 million years ago, during the greatest mass extinction event of all time.

The research, which has been published in the June edition of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, shows that toxic chemicals released by volcanoes led to a thinning of the ozone layer, millions of years before humans even existed.

New mathematical models developed by the scientists suggest a massive episode of volcanism in Siberia, which coincided with the mass extinction, seriously depleted the ozone shield that protects life on Earth from harmful ultraviolet-B radiation. The eruptions injected halogen gases into the atmosphere, and produced potent ozone-destroying chemicals as the hot ascending lava cooked Siberian rocks and underground salt and minerals.

The calculations also help explain fossil finds reported a few years ago of unusual mutated plant pollen in rocks, which dated back to around the time of the mass extinction, and had previously puzzled scientists. These mutations are consistent with damage to plants by extreme UV-radiation.

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Re: Nature: Dramatic Increase in Arctic Ozone Hole

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 15 Oct 2011, 03:00:06

Dear Dissident,

Thanks for the insight in the process of Ozone depletion.
Scientists working on this issue and GW in general are not dumb but just play dumb
and ignorant by saying that it is a very complex issue brought by a strong vortex and cold air.
This northern collapse never happened before in current Holocene/antropocene, CFK influence is understood, same for gradual increase of GHG.
A huge methane increase is a possible explanation, and a very likely one now that these dramatic increases have been measured.
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Re: THE Ozone Thread

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 06 Oct 2014, 09:07:25

Some good news on the Ozone layer, at long last!

Nearly 30 years after the protections of the Montreal Protocol were put into place, there's more evidence that the international agreement to protect Earth's ozone layer is working, according to a new scientific report released today at the United Nations headquarters in New York.

The abundances of most ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere have dropped since the previous assessment, in 2010, and Earth's protective ozone layer may be showing some signs of recovery, according to the "Assessment for Decision-Makers," part of a larger report to be released early next year.

"There are telltale signs of ozone recovery in the upper part of the stratosphere," says A.R. Ravishankara, who is a NOAA emeritus scientist, professor at Colorado State University, and a co-chair of the panel that prepared the new report. The new report also emphasizes the complex connections between ozone layer recovery and climate change, he said. For example, some of the replacements for ozone-depleting substances are safe for the ozone layer but cause climate warming.

The report is the latest in a series produced every four years by the international scientific community, led by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and co-sponsored by NOAA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Commission. Decision-makers rely on these scientific updates and have used them to strengthen protection of the ozone layer, banning or restricting the use of ozone-depleting substances, for example.


More details at the link,
http://cires.colorado.edu/news/press/2014/ozone.html
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Re: THE Ozone Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 15:11:07

The ozone hole is an annual thin spot that forms in the stratospheric ozone layer over Antarctica in mid-September and October. When it comes to the ozone hole, chlorine is the enemy. The chlorine comes from chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs, for short), which were widely used in early refrigeration and cooling systems. Under most atmospheric conditions, when CFCs begin to degrade, the chlorine they contain first gets incorporated into variety of smaller molecules that do not directly harm the ozone layer.
The large-scale transformation of relatively harmless forms of chlorine into an army of ozone-destroying assassins only takes place in one environment: on the surface of droplets and crystals in an unusual kind of cloud. Made of a mixture of water and nitric or sulfuric acid, these polar stratospheric clouds only form where temperatures drop to at least −78 °C (−108 °F).
Such conditions are periodically met over the Arctic and other high latitude locations, but the only place where such deep cold persists over a wide area is in the stratosphere over Antarctica in the winter and early spring.



http://phys.org/news/2016-11-ways-ozone ... imate.html
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Re: THE Ozone Thread (merged)

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 18:04:49

can't see the arctic getting to - 78 degrees this winter!!!!!!
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Re: THE Ozone Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 18:58:19

kiwichick wrote:can't see the arctic getting to - 78 degrees this winter!!!!!!


You have to keep in mind, temperatures at 50,000-100,000 feet are always a lot lower than surface temperatures.

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Re: THE Ozone Thread (merged)

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 22:05:37

@ T .... fair enough.......still those current surface temps are extremely weird ....lets hope they are just a one off.....like the 2012 Arctic sea ice melt was a one off ??
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The Unreal Effects of Ozone Layer Depletion

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 23:08:27


Ozone layer depletion is probably at the top of the list of events that have the potential to wipe humanity out from the earth’s surface. It is the prime cause of increasing global temperature – which at this rate does not augur well for humankind. But, thankfully, concerted efforts over the years from scientists, researchers, activists, and concerned citizens have seen governments around the world commit to controlling global warming through cutting down on greenhouse gas emissions which in itself is an excellent achievement that has slowed down the impact of an increasingly warm planet. But, even with all these gains made so far, we’re still in the woods – the devastating impact of global warming is becoming an increasing reality. With the reckless abandon of how millions of tons of other greenhouse gases such as Carbon dioxide, Nitrous Oxide, and


The Unreal Effects of Ozone Layer Depletion
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Re: The Unreal Effects of Ozone Layer Depletion

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 03 Dec 2017, 16:29:54



This piece begins like this:

Ozone layer depletion is probably at the top of the list of events that have the potential to wipe humanity out from the earth’s surface. It is the prime cause of increasing global temperature – which at this rate does not augur well for humankind.

First, while reduced ozone can cause risk from UV like increased skin cancer risk, cataract risk, etc. that's not likely to wipe out humanity compared to risks like AGW.

Second, the hole in the ozone doesn't contribute significantly to AGW.

I note this piece doesn't cite this nonsense.

A quick google search gave plenty of good citations, confirming that these statements are nonsense.

For example:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/u ... %E2%80%99t

The ozone hole did not cause global warming
Because the ozone layer normally blocks ultraviolet (UV) light, an ozone hole allows more UV light than usual to reach the surface. However, the additional energy added to the Earth system from the ozone hole is so small that it couldn’t be responsible for the warming trend that’s been occurring.

How small? Well, the vast majority of sunlight is the light we can see—visible light with wavelengths of 400-700 nanometers. UV light is only about 8 percent of all sunlight to begin with, and the ozone layer and oxygen (both of which absorb UV) only permit a fraction of that to reach the surface. The additional amount of UV that the Antarctic ozone hole allows to reach the surface for a month or so each year is a small fraction of an already small amount of sunlight—too small to explain global warming.

That doesn’t mean the ozone hole isn’t important, however. UV light can cause sunburns, cataracts, genetic mutations, and cancer. It can damage land and ocean-based marine life, including the tiny phytoplankton that form the base of the ocean food web.
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That Antarctic ozone hole the world thought it was fixing? T

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 11:15:12


This is a problem the world thought it had fixed. Scientists discovered in the 1980s that chlorofluorocarbons — used for refrigeration and in aerosol sprays — were creating a hole in the stratospheric ozone layer far above Antarctica, which could have devastating consequences for life on Earth. (Ozone absorbs much of the sun's cancer-causing and DNA-altering ultraviolet rays, keeping them from reaching the planet's surface.) So the world's nations came together in Montreal and agreed in 1987 to ban specific chemicals that damage atmospheric ozone. In the years since, the ozone hole has been slowly healing. But now a team of scientists says it has discovered that ozone levels at lower altitudes have decreased — and not over Antarctica, but between the 60-degree latitudes, where the vast majority of the world's population lives. It is only one study, and it's not definitive,


That Antarctic ozone hole the world thought it was fixing? There may be a glitch
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