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Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 02 Jan 2018, 20:46:31

We pass our self-destructive urges and responses not only to our children, but to the folks we encounter daily. It's an epidemic of fear, loathing and self-hatred.

The term “emotional plague” is not a derogatory phrase. It does not connote conscious malevolence, moral or biological degeneracy, immorality, etc. An organism whose natural mobility has been continually thwarted from birth develops artificial forms of movement. It limps or walks on crutches. In the same way, a man goes through life on the crutches of the emotional plague when the natural self-regulating life expressions are suppressed from birth. The person afflicted with the emotional plague limps characterologically. The emotional plague is a chronic biopathy of the organism. It made an inroad into human society with the first mass suppression of genital sexuality; it became an endemic disease which has been tormenting people the world over for thousands of years. There are no grounds for assuming that the emotional plague is passed on from mother to child in a hereditary way. According to our knowledge, it is implanted in the child from the first days of life. It is an endemic illness, like schizophrenia or cancer, with one notable difference, i.e., it is essentially manifested in social life. Schizophrenia and cancer are biopathies which we can look upon as the results of the ravages of the emotional plague in social life. The effects of the emotional plague can be seen in the human organism as well as in the life of society. Every so often, the emotional plague develops into an epidemic just like any other contagious disease, such as the bubonic plague or cholera. Epidemic outbreaks of the emotional plague become manifest in widespread and violent breakthroughs of sadism and criminality, on a small and large scale. One such epidemic outbreak was the Catholic Inquisition of the Middle Ages; the international fascism of the twentieth century is another.

Wilhelm Reich

http://anarchy.org.au/anarchist-texts/r ... al-plague/

Wilhelm Reich was a contemporary and associate of Freud (he was deputy director of Freud's outpatient clinic). Sadly his more outrageous constructs (the orgone box) and his radical leanings (he coined the phrase "the sexual revolution") led to his all but complete annihilation in the intellectual community. He is sadly missed. :cry:
/sarc
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby Observerbrb » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 18:45:29

Oil is now at 68 $ (Brent), 62$ (WTI), so I guess a massive plunge should be imminent according to the ETP Model.

The model's credibility will be tested this year if there is not a massive correction to the downside.

Anyway, it doesn't seem to be a price high enough for a lot of oil producing countries such as Mexico or Venezuela, or even KSA (which had its first negative GDP reading in decades). Maybe prices will spike and we could see a "wave model" with successive peaks and bottoms, and that could give us enough time to transition.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 19:03:58

Observerbrb wrote:Maybe prices will spike and we could see a "wave model" with successive peaks and bottoms, and that could give us enough time to transition.


Where do you mark the starting point where this transition should begin? TOD called conventional peak when was it...2005 or 2006? We're now reaching the decade mark after the credit crisis. Seems like BAU has been quite resilient so far.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby Observerbrb » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 19:28:32

asg70 wrote:
Observerbrb wrote:Maybe prices will spike and we could see a "wave model" with successive peaks and bottoms, and that could give us enough time to transition.


Where do you mark the starting point where this transition should begin? TOD called conventional peak when was it...2005 or 2006? We're now reaching the decade mark after the credit crisis. Seems like BAU has been quite resilient so far.


I would say that the transition has already started but it surely needs to gain more traction. We are working on solutions for our major social and environmental problems (Overpopulation, air and sea pollution, droughts, animal wildlife and fish catches, deforestation, soil degradation, transportation, energy, use of mineral resources and so on) but we will need some time to implement and develop them in a massive scale. More scientific research will be needed as well.

The skeptics' question is always: Do we have enough time to stop and reverse a systemic collapse?
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 19:38:17

Observerbrb wrote:The skeptics' question is always: Do we have enough time to stop and reverse a systemic collapse?

And that's an absolutely valid question and right on point. In fact, it's my key question over time.

But a systemic collapse does NOT imply fast-crash in our face doom. Even rapid AGW problems, ongoing pollution, resource depletion, etc. combined will take several decades minimum to build to a major crash-inducing crisis, even if we do almost nothing about the problems.

And to me, slow as we are about responding, things like the green energy and EV movement are far from nothing, even with so pitifully little productive support from governments.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 08:55:47

Here is a reasonable scenario to the end of BAU
Yes at some point the money printing Debt frenzy will pop being the Ponzi scheme that it is. And in turbulent aftermath we will see Stagflation from a Depressed Economy but with inflation because of all the worthless currency circulating about. And the Net Energy deficiency will NOT allow modern Economies to reboot
The Big Economic Plunge is approaching
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 10:05:25

onlooker wrote:Here is a reasonable scenario to the end of BAU
Yes at some point the money printing Debt frenzy will pop being the Ponzi scheme that it is. And in turbulent aftermath we will see Stagflation from a Depressed Economy but with inflation because of all the worthless currency circulating about. And the Net Energy deficiency will NOT allow modern Economies to reboot

Except that last week twenty million barrels of finished petroleum products were supplied each day so there is no energy deficiency. And people have no trouble buying said products and paying their other bills with what you call useless currency. This hour the DOW crossed above 25,000 which means six trillion of wealth has been added to the economy sense election day 2016 and much of that is in 401Ks and other pension funds.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby marmico » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 10:21:12

Yes at some point the money printing Debt frenzy will pop being the Ponzi scheme that it is.


Having another wet dream, are you?

There is a high probability that excess reserves will be less than $1 trillion on January 1, 2021 in a $24 trillion economy when you are crapping your pants because the ETP MAP WTI price of $1.68 becomes the absurdity that it always was.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 10:40:51

A financial crisis has hit Iran after its shadow banking collapsed in a housing bubble that popped. The shadow banks actually even printed their own money, which is now worthless. Millions of Iranians who had money in the shadow banking system have now lost their savings. The Revolutionary Guard of the Islamic Republic seems to controlled and owned the shadow banks. The protesters are burning down the shadow banks and the Revolutionary Guard is beating up and shooting down the protesters.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 10:54:51

Coming to a country near you or in which you live!
The Big Economic Plunge is approaching
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 11:26:07

Outcast_Searcher wrote:But a systemic collapse does NOT imply fast-crash in our face doom.


Yes, I really think the medium of daily forum exchanges, which are tied to the 24-hour news cycle (see ongoing pointless color-commentary about goings on in Iran above) is the reason people cling to fast-crash narratives.

There's really little new to talk about on a given day if these problems unfold over the course of 2-3 decades rather than days. Doomerism is about gathering the tribe together and scanning the bushes looking for tigers. That instant fight-or-flight thing is embedded in our reptile brains such that if doom is more diffuse, more slow-motion, it's impossible to view it with the same sense of existential dread. This is exactly why those who don't tow the fast-crash party-line are deemed "cornies" because in the minds of a doomer, someone who is not walking around in a constant panic is simply not woke enough.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby GHung » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 11:36:56

This is exactly why those who don't tow the fast-crash party-line are deemed "cornies" because in the minds of a doomer, someone who is not walking around in a constant panic is simply not woke enough.


Maybe they call you guys "cornies" because you obsess more on doom than doomers do. Indeed, seems you talk doom as much or more than anyone here, and I find that quite corny. I'm thinking it's a sign you fear "doom" more than your average doomer.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby Cog » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 11:39:16

25,000 DOW
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 11:47:41

GHung wrote:I'm thinking it's a sign you fear "doom" more than your average doomer.


You can hold onto your psychological theories and I'll hold onto mine.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby GHung » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 11:52:47

asg70 wrote:
GHung wrote:I'm thinking it's a sign you fear "doom" more than your average doomer.


You can hold onto your psychological theories and I'll hold onto mine.


... and you'll still be obsessed with doom.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 11:53:26

I see we are running out of things to talk about and psychoanalyzing is down to your pessimistic no your optimistic. Okay. Guess we need to wait a few months more before things get interesting again. As according to Short, this $60 dollar oil price can be maintained for much longer and a big drop should occur soon. We shall see. Until then maybe the optimists and pessimists can meet at the juncture of Realism.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 12:04:00

Here is a reasonable scenario to the end of BAU
Yes at some point the money printing Debt frenzy will pop being the Ponzi scheme that it is. And in turbulent aftermath we will see Stagflation from a Depressed Economy but with inflation because of all the worthless currency circulating about. And the Net Energy deficiency will NOT allow modern Economies to reboot


I would expect that $62 is high enough to put the world into a recession, and it will be a recession from which it will not recover. We are now $12 over the Maximum Affordability curve, or we are too far up the energy curve; the Total Production Energy to produce petroleum is now too high to leave enough excess to power a recovery.

Image

Since reaching the 2012 energy half way point it has been coal and NG that supplied the additional energy needed to power what has been portrayed as recoveries. They both have apparently peaked so there is no longer a source to supplement petroleum's falling ERoEI. That transfer of energy to the petroleum sector was facilitated by central printing, and debt formation. With nothing remaining to transfer, the economy is now operating with a deficiency of about 2.1 quad BTU per year, or $500 billion. That will appear as defaults as it works through the system. A slow down in the monetary/financial system could result in a complete breakdown of the system; a plunge in petroleum prices to the $40's level or below, or both.

Once it becomes generally recognized that central bank manipulation of the monetary system is no longer having an effect on the economy, the dwindling faith in the possibility of greater forward earnings will be lost. The bond and equity markets are likely to go into free fall. As historically energy deficiencies have manifested rapidly in the economy we are likely to see the impact in 2018. It is now up to the central banks to find another rabbit to pull from their magical hat. It is, however, likely that we have hit Peak Rabbit!
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 12:56:06

The problem with all the mathematical models is the same, and the problem cannot be overcome, ignored, or even well understood by most people.

Human psychology is not subject to modelling. It's just that simple. There is no calculus of human behavior. Any scenario of rapid collapse must include the reaction from the humans who experience the effects. Unlike the people reading my words, most humans have not allocated any time to thinking about collapse scenarios, resource shortages, economic or financial collapse, or other doomish topics. When it happens - if it ever happens - they will be utterly and completely surprised, because unlike you they have not spent days/weeks/years wallowing in delicious anticipation of collapse, they will be surprised and they are going to panic and act foolishly and with random effect.

The elements of collapse have been in place for literally centuries. Noticed any symptoms or leading indicators? Probably not, most of you are "fast crash" afficianadoes, predisposed to believe in that scenario, even though nothing like that has ever happened in recorded history. I'm not a fast crasher, in fact I have thought deeply about it and I think "the crash" started 200+ years ago, has been deepening and worsening all that time, and you never noticed, any more than your Grandfather did.

Malthus, Hubbert, Carson, and Forrester were all correct in their own ways. They each understood a portion of the crash scenario, and published the same. Are you acquainted with their work?

An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798, by Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus

Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, 1956, by M. King Hubbert

Silent Spring, 1962, Rachel Carson

World Dynamics, 1971, Jay Forrester

The world is a train wreck, in ultra slow motion, that began 200+ years ago, has been gathering momentum, and will continue to crash for centuries to come. Don't hold your breath, because the crash will last another 1-2 centuries before most people notice that it's happening.

By the way, as disasters go, that's still going to be the fastest crash ever, more than twice as fast as the 1100 years of chaos caused by the Chicxulub asteroid that struck the Earth 65 million years ago and cashed in the chips for the dinosaurs.

Yup, that's fast. It really is, the fastest crash ever.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby aspera » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 13:17:43

Ghung wrote: "...because you obsess more on doom than doomers do..."

Does seem common among some folks. Most doomers I respect are doers, busy provisioning, only occasionally having time for blogs like this one. Other folks seem to dwell here a great deal more, all around the seasons, taking pot-shots. Maybe that is their form of prepping? If so, sort of reminds me of the adage that only a fool warms himself before a picture of a fire.

Also reminds me of a Zen story: Two monks on a spiritual journey, forbidden from talking or touching anyone, come across a woman struggling to cross a stream. The older monk asks the woman if she's like help and then carries her across. The rest of the day the younger monk is seething, expecting the other monk to explain himself and beg forgiveness. We the younger confronts the older at the end of the day, the old monk says, "I carried her for 2 minutes; you carried her all day."

It's -9 F wind chill here. But time to go brush the snow off the PV panels and check if anything still lives in the cold-frames (doubt it, glad the root cellar is stocked, tiny though it be).
Plant a garden. Soon.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 8

Unread postby GHung » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 13:23:08

KJ wrote; "....most of you are "fast crash" afficianadoes, predisposed to believe in that scenario, even though nothing like that has ever happened in recorded history.


Really? 1929-1945? Global economic collapse exacerbated by a major dust belt event and millions of humans dead and the biggest world war in history which likely would have turned out very differently had nuclear weapons been developed earlier? It was the only time in US history that the national debt rose to levels not seen until recently, repayable only with rapid post-war growth fueled by expanding use of oil allowing the rebuilding of entire countries which had been devastated....

Maybe your definition of fast crash differs from mine. Maybe you think we'll get lucky again next time. At the end of WWII, one nation had a couple of nuclear weapons. We now know of 9 nations that, together, have tens-of-thousands of much more powerful nukes. We are now more reliant on oil than we've ever been and have roughly 4 times as many humans to feed as in 1930.
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