[Xenophobe]

Oil consumption will continue to decline in the US. The lives of more and more people in the US will become more and more sucky.

Selah.

I used to burn through a gallon of gasoline a day commuting. Now I burn through none. I also got a raise last year. Either one of those events mean I have more disposable income. Both of them together means ITS PARTY TIME!!

So no...for people who understand basic economics, using less gasoline does not mean life has to become sucky.

[AirlinePilot]

I used to burn through a gallon of gasoline a day commuting. Now I burn through none. I also got a raise last year. Either one of those events mean I have more disposable income. Both of them together means ITS PARTY TIME!!

So no...for people who understand basic economics, using less gasoline does not mean life has to become sucky.

Unfortunately you don't understand economics shortonbrains.

If you got a raise last year it better have been something significant, if not, than you haven't kept pace with your declining dollar in the less or more "sucky" department.

[Xenophobe]

If you got a raise last year it better have been something significant, if not, than you haven't kept pace with your declining dollar in the less or more "sucky" department.

Well, not to put too fine a point on it, but yes, my real income has handily bested inflation over the past couple of decades. And I certainly expect it to continue, my skill set took a turn for the better in 2006 and has been quite in demand since then. And I expect those skills will continue to be in demand, so sure, I expect to continue to best the CPI.

[diemos]

Well, not to put too fine a point on it, but yes, my real income has handily bested inflation over the past couple of decades.

Congratulations on being one of the fortunate ones.

Your experience however is not typical of the population at large.

[sparky]

.@ peaky-jelly
It is conceivable that a sudden unexpected breakthrough would make Peak oil moot
the first though to come across would be a successful tabletop cold fusion or such
( I am perfectly aware of the Fleishmann and Pons sad , misbegotten stuff up )

Still should , as unlikely as it is now a magic pumpkin appears ,
it would have to be an plentiful energy pumpkin , like the dream of the early pioneers of the atom who foresaw energy so cheap that it would be wasteful to meter it for billing

What would happen then !
with unlimited free power , all raw materials can be recycled at trivial cost or extracted no matter how low the grade ,manufactured things would be cheap , food could be synthesized
everybody would live in plenty in billions people cities
most people would be engaging in fulfilling life choices while a massive public service would cater to all possible need and function
unfortunately the stars would be still out of reach until a better propulsion system can be found rather than the chemical rocket propulsion

So far so good

with all brakes removed the population would
-1 explode , destroying all wildlife to provide for the masses of city entertainment addicted morons
-2 wither , following the well known law that free educated women don't breed that well

[Subjectivist]

.@ peaky-jelly
It is conceivable that a sudden unexpected breakthrough would make Peak oil moot
the first though to come across would be a successful tabletop cold fusion or such
( I am perfectly aware of the Fleishmann and Pons sad , misbegotten stuff up )

Still should , as unlikely as it is now a magic pumpkin appears ,
it would have to be an plentiful energy pumpkin , like the dream of the early pioneers of the atom who foresaw energy so cheap that it would be wasteful to meter it for billing

What would happen then !
with unlimited free power , all raw materials can be recycled at trivial cost or extracted no matter how low the grade ,manufactured things would be cheap , food could be synthesized
everybody would live in plenty in billions people cities
most people would be engaging in fulfilling life choices while a massive public service would cater to all possible need and function
unfortunately the stars would be still out of reach until a better propulsion system can be found rather than the chemical rocket propulsion

So far so good

with all brakes removed the population would
-1 explode , destroying all wildlife to provide for the masses of city entertainment addicted morons
-2 wither , following the well known law that free educated women don't breed that well

I have seen this argumnt made often but I think it is a half truth at best. American women were just as educated as en yet the birth rate remained high right up until cheap easy birth control became common place. Take away that birth control, or make it expensive enough to limit use, and IMO the birth rate would go back up considerably.

[AdamB]

Oil consumption will continue to decline in the US. The lives of more and more people in the US will become more and more sucky.

Selah.

I used to burn through a gallon of gasoline a day commuting. Now I burn through none. I also got a raise last year. Either one of those events mean I have more disposable income. Both of them together means ITS PARTY TIME!!

So no...for people who understand basic economics, using less gasoline does not mean life has to become sucky.

No surprise you got perma banned. 2010? You would have been right there at the beginning of the end of the peak oil meme, and daring to mention that life goes on quite fine using less gasoline? Good for you, but the Hummer avatar probably doesn't help that angle. Nowadays we've got EVs and whatnot, proving you completely correct.

[onlooker]

Nowadays we've got EVs and whatnot, proving you completely correct.------
Nowadays, you have an Oil Industry and Economy wobbling and reeling and a Renewable/EV Industry that has barely made inroads to replace FF. proving that the PEAK OIL DYNAMIC is alive and well

[asg70]

PEAK OIL DYNAMIC is alive and well

Sure, if you ascribe to correlation = causation the way die-hard peakers do.

[ROCKMAN]

Looker - I don't recall seeing this thread before. But an easy answer. Obviously a few years back we had not reached PO. And what was this pre-PO period like? $100+/bbl oil, huge wealth transfer from oil consumers to producers, $trillions of US tax dollars and thousands of our military lives spent on wars in regions that were of no importance to the US other then oil production, etc. And go back even further...30+ years. When we had the entire world driven into a deep recession after the oil price shock of the late 70's. And go back further to the 1930's when oil shortages (natural and political) played a contributing part in a global military conflict that took about 70 million lives.

And all this happening decades and possibly as much as a century before we reach global PO. As others just pointed how much worse conditions could the POD deliver when we actually reach GPO?

[AdamB]

Nowadays we've got EVs and whatnot, proving you completely correct.------
Nowadays, you have an Oil Industry and Economy wobbling and reeling and a Renewable/EV Industry that has barely made inroads to replace FF. proving that the PEAK OIL DYNAMIC is alive and well

Yes..low unemployment, a decent stock market, housing values increasing, yup...sounds like a wobbly market. Or maybe you just read data from another dimension like pstarr does.

If you want to see doom, you can find it everywhere. Sort of like God...hence peak oil / doomer schemes being a religion. I recommend science and stuff, but that is just me.

[Plantagenet]

If you want to see doom, you can find it everywhere. Sort of like God...hence peak oil / doomer schemes being a religion. I recommend science and stuff, but that is just me.

Actually, concerns about peak oil, environmental collapse, global warming, etc all originated with scientists, and are based on scientific analyses of the earth and its environment.

Some of the most prominent scientists on the planet, including Stephen Hawking, James Lovelock, and James Hansen, are very concerned about potential problems that pose dangers to our planet and to humankind.

Cheers!


James Hansen, scientist.

[tita]

Rockman - "And go back further to the 1930's when oil shortages (natural and political) played a contributing part in a global military conflict that took about 70 million lives."

Oil shortages in the 1930's?? Are you joking? This period is considered as an oil-glut era, with inventories at their highest (due to the crisis), and the discovery of major oil fields in Texas, and later in the middle east.

Oil was a strategic resource in WWII, and the control of supply played a huge part in the conflict. Some says that the oil campaign of the US and the lack of huge oil resource of Germany/Japan was decisive in the victory of the allies. Maybe that's what you wanted to say... but it happened in the 1940's. And it's related to the fact that the war machine was oil dependant.

[KingM]

I don't know if it will never happen, but I've been here since 2005, and things seem pretty much the same as they always were, if not more so. China's economy is SIX times bigger than it was in 2005. I remember someone mocking another poster some time around 2007 or 2008 when he bought a new car. Oil would soon be so scarce that the car would just sit in his garage.

I was moderately doomerish. I bought some gold when it was about 500/ounce. Not a bad return, although it hasn't budged much lately. I also kept kicking into retirement accounts, and these are worth a lot more than they were 12 years ago.

So what's going to change now, that didn't change back then? Twelve more years will be 2029. Even those of us who were more moderate were sure that there would be big, monumental changes by then. I'm not sure I see it anymore. Seems like a more likely event is BAU.

[GHung]

.....So what's going to change now, that didn't change back then? Twelve more years will be 2029. Even those of us who were more moderate were sure that there would be big, monumental changes by then. I'm not sure I see it anymore. Seems like a more likely event is BAU.

BAU is not an event. In the US, it looks like this:



Of course, like frogs in pots, most folks aren't paying much attention to increasing liabilities. Even our wonderful Republicans, so-called 'deficit hawks', continue to put partisan 'optics' above their fiscal responsibilities, and can-kicking on all fronts (BAU) will proceed until it can't. Then, economic implosion, increasing social divisions and delusion, along with even more political impotence, will be BAU at whatever point you may find yourself..

Enjoy!

[Tanada]

I don't know if it will never happen, but I've been here since 2005, and things seem pretty much the same as they always were, if not more so. China's economy is SIX times bigger than it was in 2005. I remember someone mocking another poster some time around 2007 or 2008 when he bought a new car. Oil would soon be so scarce that the car would just sit in his garage.

I was moderately doomerish. I bought some gold when it was about 500/ounce. Not a bad return, although it hasn't budged much lately. I also kept kicking into retirement accounts, and these are worth a lot more than they were 12 years ago.

So what's going to change now, that didn't change back then? Twelve more years will be 2029. Even those of us who were more moderate were sure that there would be big, monumental changes by then. I'm not sure I see it anymore. Seems like a more likely event is BAU.

As one of those who has mostly been in the Moderate wing of resource depletion beliefs I can agree with much of what you wrote. On the other hand having participated here nearly daily since April 2005 I can see that many things have changed a lot in oil production and consumption over the last 12.5 years. As you pointed out yourself China is now the worlds top oil importing nation because their economy expanded by leaps and bounds over the last 20 years. It really started booming when they got permanent most favored trading nation status with laws that encouraged US manufacturers to move our industrial capacity to China in wholesale fashion.

Right now India is in the first couple years of going through the same kind of growth pattern and from all reports this time the government has decided they want growth at any cost because they feel they are being left behind by China and that scares the daylights out of them. The impression I have gotten, which is just my impression so it may be totally wrong, is that India used to count on the USA as the 'world policeman' to protect them from any incursions by China. This trust has been completely lost over the last decade and at the same time the people of India see the people of China living at a much higher standard of living than they were just a decade ago, let alone in 1997. The combination of fear above and pressure from below has set India on a growth at all costs pathway much like the one which overtook China starting in 1998 with Permanent Normal Trade Relation status. As a result India is imitating the path China took, they are developing their internal coal mine capacity rapidly and building new electric power stations as quickly as they can integrate them into the system.

There are even a few hints that hydroelectricity projects which have been stalled for decades in the far north of India may soon regain the political support needed to proceed. India in the north has a lot of mountains with streams and rivers that could provide a lot of hydroelectricity. These projects were stalled by NIMBY local populations that saw the process as hurting them for the benefit of some nameless bureaucracy running the power grid and the protestors managed to delay or even get cancelled many projects in the north. Now India is committed to growth for the sake of standard of living and national defense and this changes the kind of deals the politicians are willing to offer local protestors to get them to accept the new dam infrastructure and distribution construction.

So in conclusion, the rapid expansion of India will put additional demand by over a Billion new consumers into the mix of world resources, so world demand is going to keep going up. The rate of increase in world supply will be hard pressed to go up by as much as it has in the last decade for another decade into the future. Because of the nature of Shale bed oil it looks unlikely that resources will be able to double yet again from where it was in 2015. That makes it very questionable that we could see a world peak much higher than 100 MM/bbl/d though i used to think the same thing about 90 MM/bbl/d before the "shale miracle" took place.

[dcoyne78]

How high do you think Shale (LTO) output will go? It's around 5 Mb/d now, do you expect it to go to 10 Mb/d? I think maybe 7.5 Mb/d is possible, but I doubt it will be more than that.

That is likely to happen by 2025 (peak shale (or LTO) output), decline may be quite rapid once production moves to tier 2 leases as all the tier one acres get fully drilled. A ramp up in other nations will simply reduce the overall World LTO decline rate and it is questionable how much non-US LTO will be a major factor.

I am a little less optimistic than you, I think for C+C+NGL (which BP uses for output data) the peak will be about 92 Mboe/d between 2025 and 2030. Now if one uses volume rather than energy as a measure (like the IEA) and count a barrel of NGL (with 70% of the energy of a barrel of crude) as being equal to a barrel of crude, we might see 100 Mb/d of C+C+NGL, but it would only be about 96 Mboe/d (86 Mb/d of C+C and 14 Mb/d of NGL).

So comparing our estimates for peak output, mine is 4 Mboe/d lower than yours (about 4% lower).

[Plantagenet]

How high do you think Shale (LTO) output will go? It's around 5 Mb/d now, do you expect it to go to 10 Mb/d? I think maybe 7.5 Mb/d is possible, but I doubt it will be more than that.

That is likely to happen by 2025 (peak shale (or LTO) output)

Thats a reasonable estimate but we'll probably get there long before 2025. US LTO is supposed to go up by almost a million bbls/day just next year. At that rate we'll get to 7.5 Mb/d and peak shale LTO production by 2020-21.

decline may be quite rapid once production moves to tier 2 leases as all the tier one acres get fully drilled. A ramp up in other nations will simply reduce the overall World LTO decline rate and it is questionable how much non-US LTO will be a major factor.

'

Yes.

Thats exactly the point I've been making in another thread about "Peak Permian". The "sweet spots" get drilled first, making it harder and harder to grow production in TOS as time goes on.

Cheers!

[Tanada]

How high do you think Shale (LTO) output will go? It's around 5 Mb/d now, do you expect it to go to 10 Mb/d? I think maybe 7.5 Mb/d is possible, but I doubt it will be more than that.

That is likely to happen by 2025 (peak shale (or LTO) output), decline may be quite rapid once production moves to tier 2 leases as all the tier one acres get fully drilled. A ramp up in other nations will simply reduce the overall World LTO decline rate and it is questionable how much non-US LTO will be a major factor.

I am a little less optimistic than you, I think for C+C+NGL (which BP uses for output data) the peak will be about 92 Mboe/d between 2025 and 2030. Now if one uses volume rather than energy as a measure (like the IEA) and count a barrel of NGL (with 70% of the energy of a barrel of crude) as being equal to a barrel of crude, we might see 100 Mb/d of C+C+NGL, but it would only be about 96 Mboe/d (86 Mb/d of C+C and 14 Mb/d of NGL).

So comparing our estimates for peak output, mine is 4 Mboe/d lower than yours (about 4% lower).

I think the USA may get as high as 8 MM/bbl/d of LTO by 2022, at which time I expect us to be past the bulk of sweet spots and well into drilling the less desirable locations. However there is also the LTO exploration going on in Argentina and elsewhere, plus the potential of at minimum cross border exploitation of LTO in northern Mexico along the Texas and New Mexico border lands.

In addition to LTO the Utah tar sands are just now going into production and if prices climb back to the $80/bbl band those operations in Utah will increase a great deal. Add in the Alberta sands and a few other scattered developments and I can see humanity achieving 100 MM/bbl/d before we cross the peak and go into terminal decline of petroleum resources.

[ROCKMAN]

tita - "Oil shortages in the 1930's?? Are you joking? This period is considered as an oil-glut era," Not in Germany or Japan. Might want to check history books a tad. In particular the US oil embargo on Japan. Many historians feel that gave the Japanese military the leverage to push the govt to agree to attack Pearl Harbor.