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Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby Quinny » Mon 29 Oct 2012, 14:46:07

Thanks Pops - still confused though because although you might be arguing about specific figures, you both seem to be on the same page.

It almost seems to be nit-picking over a small detail.
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 29 Oct 2012, 19:12:53

:)

The "nit" is about 800Gb.

Either 40 years supply at current rates or 13.

If that isn't worth investigating then I don't know what is.
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby Quinny » Tue 30 Oct 2012, 03:50:07

OK my bad reading, but both pretty damn doomerish anyway :)
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 30 Oct 2012, 07:55:17

This is really shocking news no matter what the figure is. If we are over 75% depleted we are in real trouble. We never seem to prepare for what's coming. I don't think our minds can comprehend the end of the resource. We have built a huge fossil fueled civilization that is going to hit its limits within the next couple of decades. Wouldn't it be nice if someone had a plan to deal with what is coming?
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby Quinny » Tue 30 Oct 2012, 15:25:30

That's really the point I was trying to make.

Although SOO and Pops were disagreeing over the amounts/timescales, they both seem to agree that we are damn close to depletion where we're gonna be sliding down/falling off that cliff pretty damn soon.
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby evilgenius » Wed 31 Oct 2012, 12:04:14

When I brought up Saudi Arabia I was alluding to a possible resource related future, one in which the Middle East becomes even more important than it is now in terms of world energy supplies. The numbers, at 3/4's, are really a statement of global reserves. Something that will matter going forward is not so much how much is left, but where is it? Is it concentrated in the Middle East or is it spread across many fields, the satellite fields? The answer to this question will dictate the future of war and peace for many regions throughout the world.

If Saudi Arabia tanks before Iraq can be brought into relevant steady production there will be geopolitical ramifications that nobody can foresee. Already the US is being accused of abandoning Israel by many pro-Israeli pundits. Imagine what might happen if the Saudis fell out of power and agreement had to be reached with the very unstable regime, or potential set of regimes, in Iraq. Imagine if the anti-Israeli Shia religious enclave became powerful enough to demand the US abandon Israel in order for Iraqi oil to enter market based distribution. I hate the torture and abuse of the Palestinians as much as anybody, but a world in which the US no longer determines its own policy, is forced to abandon Israel, is one which signals the beginning of an order in which the sole remaining superpower officially becomes as far removed from what it once was as the line of a peak oil graph indicates the same concerning man's ability to continue happy motoring and mcmansion housing.
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby Revi » Thu 01 Nov 2012, 08:41:43

Of course everyone is expecting shale oil to hold up the oil market for the foreseeable future as well. It may make a big difference, but it's just enhanced recovery of the oil that exists. I think it's going to extend the plateau for a while, which is fine, but eventually even that won't hold up. I just hope it lasts until I plan on retiring.

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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby Lore » Thu 01 Nov 2012, 09:23:08

Revi wrote:Of course everyone is expecting shale oil to hold up the oil market for the foreseeable future as well. It may make a big difference, but it's just enhanced recovery of the oil that exists. I think it's going to extend the plateau for a while, which is fine, but eventually even that won't hold up. I just hope it lasts until I plan on retiring.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3 ... il-by-2020


Production for shale oil is already plateauing as operators are fulfilling the last of their lease contracts. As mentioned, we will see less and less of the low hanging fruit being plumbed from those holes in the future and in a few short years the costs for recovering the remaining oil will escalate the price well beyond historical figures.

Meanwhile, conventional wells of cheaper oil will continue to deplete resulting in not only less oil, but more expensive energy added to recovering the more difficult unconventional reserves left.
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 22:52:29

shortonoil wrote:. Any Reservoir Engineer will tell you that initial estimates are almost always optimistic. They spend a lot of time tweaking and testing to get accurate projections for a field!


Found this little gem, indicating yet again that Shorty doesn't have access to said reservoir engineer. But the USGS does, and did, when they built their estimates showing that there are reasons why reserve estimates increase on average, they don't go backwards after all this "tweaking" that Shorty knows nothing about.

How many other little giveaways did you leave back there in the past when you were building your carnival act Shorty? And how many of them were found so quickly by those Royal Academy folks that they kicked your paper right out of the room? Only takes a single reservoir engineer to spot this mistake, and we know now, 5 years later, that you screwed the pooch in far more ways than one when it comes to your pretend oil field knowledge.

Shortonoil wrote:Determining reservoir status for the world (48,000 fields) is in an altogether different league. One that is probably outside the scope of conventional methodology for the level of accuracy that we are seeking here.


You aren't seeking accuracy, you are seeking an answer you can point at and pretend it is doom.

And by "different league" you must mean folks like I referenced for BahamasEd, because some of them are doing just that, churning through every field on the planet, every scientific publication of the USGS, every piece of cost information, currency differences, refinery locations and transport costs between them, demand centers and changes in everything from elasticity to accounting for fleet efficiency standards and growth in China.

That isn't a different league compared to your claptrap short, that is on a different planet. You should try harder, and you could start by finding a reservoir engineer who can tell you about all the screwups you made in your initial assumptions. Besides the logic flaws, cherry picked data and ignorance of basic USGS pubs that you put in there.
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:20:17

Well, now that this thread has been bumped, what does 84% depletion mean? Let's assume that big consumption of oil will be about 100 years. If I take 2017 and subtract 84 years I get to 1933. Let's say we have about 16 years left of any extraction left. Car culture and the electricity grid are going to drop away and we'll end up going backwards from here. Say from 1933 backwards to around 1917. We have a lot more people nowadays, but you get the idea. We are going to be headed into very different times. Most people lived in rural places back before the first world war, grew a lot of their own food and very few had cars.
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 18:05:48

Anyway, you quoted ASPO, not Campbell. Unless Campbell has managed to grow several hundred extra arms and legs recently, he is not ASPO. Maybe someone at ASPO got out their Ouija board and conjured up 1900! The 1900 comes from changing the RF (recovery factor) from 40% of OOIP to 44%. Then of course there is the last explanation; Campbell - Laharrere made a better team than Campbell? --
Or maybe ASPO has been corrupted by the TPTB
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 18:49:16

onlooker wrote:Anyway, you quoted ASPO, not Campbell. Unless Campbell has managed to grow several hundred extra arms and legs recently, he is not ASPO.

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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 18:50:46

pstarr wrote:
onlooker wrote:Anyway, you quoted ASPO, not Campbell. Unless Campbell has managed to grow several hundred extra arms and legs recently, he is not ASPO.

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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 21:20:30

We are going to be headed into very different times.


Its called The Internet of Nothings...oops Things. Its 4th Gen Hocus Pocus.

Notice all the dipshits hooked up to the internet. They are the Nothings.
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 19:32:21

Revi - There is no such thing as an average commercial production life. And certainly not 84 years. Over 40 years I've studied thousands of reservoirs and the typical commercial life Is rarely over 40 to 50 years. But even the it includes, as an example, a reservoir that produced 26 million bbls since 1946 and still producing commercially...12 bopd from 5 wells. At that rate it hardly fits your model effort. And it's typical of fields in a trend that has produced 2.5 BILLION BBLS.
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby Revi » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 11:17:04

Rockman, thanks! Are there wells or regions that have produced continuously since the turn of the last century? It seems like Pennsylvania is fracking back into production after a long period of obscurity. I went to school in Western NY back in the 70's and I remember there were old wells that were still producing a tiny amount into a big wooden barrel. They must have started back in the boom days before 1900.
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 14:18:21

Detour: My doctor sent me to an X-Ray clinic in toney Los Gatos CA for some pictures of my arthritic joints. I drove around back and beheld this in the rear parking lot:
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..this pumpjack is tiny, about four feet tall, and rusty, with no trace of the tank it must have once labored to fill. The Los Gatos Historical Assoc. added a plaque which is not found in the photo I plucked from online. California is still a major oil producing state, but I never expected anything like this.
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 15:17:36

Revi/KJ - There are certainly some very long lived fields in the US. But typically they are very slow producers. I can point out a field in S Texas that has produced for 40+ years and could easily produce for another 100+ years. At 1/4 to 1 bopd. Very heavy oil with a gravity drainage drive. KJ: small pump jack, eh? These are 1.5' tall and sit on 3' tall metal stands to keep them out of the mud. They only pump 1 to 2 hours every day. The rest of the day the oil dribbles into the production tubing. But dozens of fields in the trend have made a total of 1+ billion bbls. The first "giant" oil field discovered in Texas in 1917, Corsicana, is similar and is still producing from 900'. It was discovered while exploring for water.
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 19:50:16

Revi wrote:Well, now that this thread has been bumped, what does 84% depletion mean?


That short doesn't know what he is talking about. Just ask any reservoir engineer to tell you about his favorite 84% recovery factor reservoir, we all have a couple dozen we tuck away to impress folks with.
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Re: Ultimately Recoverable Oil 84% Gone?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Dec 2017, 14:37:02

Revi - Just some advice: be sure you understand what "commercial production" means. A field producing 5,000 bopd but only netting a $10/month positive cash flow is a commercial oil field. And it may have recovered 40% of its in place oil. Same true for a field producing 12 bopd and has only recovered 10% of its original in place reserves. I looked at a field in west Texas that had an original proven in place reserve of 880 million bbls of oil at 2,400'. And has produced 100 million bbls but only doing 60 bopd today. In desperate need of CO2 injection but none available today.

IOW be careful when you see someone toss around terms like "commercial", "average", "typical", etc. It's easy to give false impressions.
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