Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 19:01:53

Tanada wrote:Having plummeted all the way to 21st place perhaps it is obvious why I have not played in the past. I am pretty terrible at guessing and I never denied it in any serious manner.

You should NOT feel bad. Professional and serious traders of all markets rarely do better than random chance over time as far as picking winners vs. losers. This is why long term passive investing is so strongly advocated -- all the trading expenses and timing randomness is eliminated.

The talking heads who make their living making market predictions based on charts, fundamental analysis, etc. are no better.

It's entertainment. I use it as an opportunity to remind myself why I should NOT make such bets with real money.
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 4185
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 18 Nov 2017, 09:15:31

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Tanada wrote:Having plummeted all the way to 21st place perhaps it is obvious why I have not played in the past. I am pretty terrible at guessing and I never denied it in any serious manner.

You should NOT feel bad. Professional and serious traders of all markets rarely do better than random chance over time as far as picking winners vs. losers. This is why long term passive investing is so strongly advocated -- all the trading expenses and timing randomness is eliminated.

The talking heads who make their living making market predictions based on charts, fundamental analysis, etc. are no better.

It's entertainment. I use it as an opportunity to remind myself why I should NOT make such bets with real money.

Same here, I was convinced we had bottomed out at the start of the year....
Based on gut feeling and no research at all.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
User avatar
dolanbaker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3477
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 09:38:47
Location: Éire

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 11:34:59

We have a new leader as of Nov. 28th:

Image

Congrats Salinski!

Reminder: I'm not going to be the scorekeeper after this year, so if y'all are going to play this game next year, someone better start a new thread so players can start making their guesses!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3660
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Central Texas

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Revi » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 15:09:45

I have dropped to 8th! Oh well, I was a contender at one point. We'll see, but it looks like oil will hang around $60 until the new year.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6820
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Previous

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests