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THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 03 Dec 2017, 20:56:04

Subjectivist wrote:
A shale gas superstar utters the unmentionable: “sweet spot exhaustion”

November 27, 20177:43 AM Terry Etam



Interesting in that anyone considers it unmentionable. Folks were discussing it within a given resource play decades ago...the same people who were developing those sweet spots locally before anyone else in the country even knew (not that they do now) what source rock production even was.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sun 03 Dec 2017, 21:00:36

Here's another nugget from Range's senior VP:

“With the growth profile that maybe a lot of people have, they think the core goes on forever. They think technology can make tier-one acreage core acreage, but it can’t,” Farquharson said. “Because if it could … there would be a lot of rigs running in the Barnett (Shale).”
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 03 Dec 2017, 21:11:07

GoghGoner wrote:Here's another nugget from Range's senior VP:

“With the growth profile that maybe a lot of people have, they think the core goes on forever. They think technology can make tier-one acreage core acreage, but it can’t,” Farquharson said. “Because if it could … there would be a lot of rigs running in the Barnett (Shale).”


Or the Fayetteville. Or Indiana County, PA. It is worthy of note that while some chuckleheads think that this type of resource evaluation is unmentionable, the EIA build exactly this type of gradation into their models more than a few years ago, and also built their initial geologically based prototype in as well. Hard to do resource to reserve conversion calculations without including some fundamental geology. Just ask David Hughes. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 02:03:48

Couple of quick observations ...

The very next day after EQT announced the spectacular 24 Hr IP from the Scotts Run well at 72 MMcf ... their stock price dropped 7%.
Although only the sellers could say why they sold, the consensus was when the vast potential of the Utica (which the SR targeted) was recognized, the abundance of gas would make its value less.

I do not know how much understating the Range VP was attempting, but he is correct that there is only so much top tier acreage.
However, it is a vast size, as well as multi layered.

The 3 counties mentioned should also include the 1,100+ sq. miles of Bradford county as well as parts of Lycoming, Wyoming, and Sullivan as they are also highly productive. Bradford is "Chesapeake country" and they have done little drilling these past 2 years.
However, their McGavin 6 well, located just over the line in Lycoming, has produced 3.25 Billion cubic feet in 64 days, the most productive unconventional well of all time.

The northeast PA Marcellus has upper and lower target zones as the formation is over 300' thick in much of that area.
No mention was made of the Marcellus in West Virginia, nor the Utica in all 3 states (Ohio, PA, and WV).
The Upper Devonian trends of Middlesex, Rhinestreet, Genesee, Geneseo, and Burket have barely been drilled, yet 2017 and 2016 results are extremely bullish.
In a few weeks, just east of Montreal (yes, Canada), more drilling of the Utica will resume as the production of 10 years ago was halted by a moratorium.
Big, big trend the Utica.

Lottsa gas in the Appalachian Basin ... lots.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 02:39:56

...quick edit on the McGavin well ... should be Wyoming county, not Lycoming
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 03:44:06

The Utica shale has been very good to Ohio. Back in 2012 our liberal Republican Governor tried to change the rules so that the state government could more or less triple the tax rates they get paid by the development of the Utica once people had poured a lot of money into making it pay off. That is why he lost the eastern half of the state to Trump in the primary race last year.
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