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World On Brink Of Sixth Great Extinction pt. 2

Re: World On Brink Of Sixth Great Extinction pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 19:17:19

Yes it seems experts and scientists from many different branches are more and more interested in so called "tipping points" as they presage radical non linear change in complex systems. So researchers and others are focused on trying to predict these events as they can equally apply to the natural and non natural world. I found a reference to an article which should interest any of you who would like to further examine this subject:
Title:
Complex systems: Foreseeing tipping points
Authors:
Scheffer, MartenAffiliation:
AA(Marten Scheffer is in the Environmental Sciences Group, Wageningen University, 6700 Wageningen, the Netherlands.marten.scheffer@wur.nl)Publication:
Nature, Volume 467, Issue 7314, pp. 411-412 (2010). (Nature Homepage)Publication Date:
09/2010Origin:
NATUREAbstract Copyright:
(c) 2010: NatureDOI:
10.1038/467411aBibliographic Code:
2010Natur.467..411S
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Re: World On Brink Of Sixth Great Extinction pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 19:42:45

Predicting "Tipping Points" seems even less likely than a - wait for it - working climate model that actually predicts future temperatures. It is about as arrogant a declaration as I have ever heard to suggest that one can model a regional ecology, with millions of interacting and interdependant plant and animal species, when we cannot even predict the future temperatures in that region.
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Re: World On Brink Of Sixth Great Extinction pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 19:57:12

Kaiser, I remind you that in science, a model is a representation of an idea, an object or even a process or a system that is used to describe and explain phenomena that cannot be experienced directly. Models are central to what scientists do, both in their research as well as when communicating their explanations. As for the ability to predict tippinig points in Nature or otherwise, some exciting work appears to be ongoing utilizing generic markers that are equally valid for all complex systems as they approach tipping points.

http://news.northeastern.edu/2016/02/re ... x-systems/
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A Sixth Extinction—fair warning or fake news?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 14:50:45



A new National Academy of Sciences study concludes the planet is facing a real threat of “biological annihilation.” The scientists who carried out the research call the decimation of the world’s large mam- mals a “global epidemic” and say the rate of decline is accelerating. Up to 50 percent of all individual ani- mals have been lost in recent decades. Two-fifths of the 177 mammal species sur- veyed lost more than 80 percent of their range or geographic distribution between 1900 and 2016. The release of this study coincides with news that the world’s population has reached an all-time high of 7.6 billion. In Asia, the world’s most populous continent, three-fourths of the mammal species sur- veyed have lost 80 percent of their range in the last century or so. The fact that animal and human popu- lations are moving in opposite directions


A Sixth Extinction—fair warning or fake news?
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Re: A Sixth Extinction—fair warning or fake news?

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 18:03:25

There is no terrestrial ecologist on the planet who view this topic as fake news, none that are even vacillating on the question of accelerated extinctions caused by humans being a real time reality.
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