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Deluge Thread 2017

Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 10:29:53

dohboi wrote:I guess p is trying to say I shouldn't post something about a flood in the deluge thread?? Or that rain had nothing to do with the flood?? 8O

He seems to have gone back to blathering, so I'll go back to ignoring him.

Meanwhile in the real, tragic world, the number of missing is in the thousands...

https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... -emergency

It's not blathering, simple ecological science which is not taught in school. I have my theories: we are all connected in a web of life, human's are not special and so we live and die and depend on the earth like other beings. It's kind of a religion, a guide to good living, but without a priesthood. (Unless you send your money to Al Gore lol )

But I must say, dohboi you have an odd post there. As if you are addressing an audience. It seems you'd rather be on a soap box than talking to real people. I made good arguments. You are nasty when you don't get your way. Or are you an intern also, like AdamB? For an Alarmist Publication?
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 14:51:23

The stupid just never stops:

"The Trump administration is acting very rashly in part out of the desire to undo a climate measure under the Obama administration," he said. "This is an enormous mistake that is disastrous for taxpayers. The (Obama) rule would have saved billions of dollars over time."

Trump to revoke Obama-era flood risk building standards

U.S. President Donald Trump will revoke an Obama-era executive order on Tuesday that required strict building standards for government-funded projects to reduce exposure to increased flooding from sea level rise...


http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1AV1ZI
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 15:09:21

dohboi wrote:The stupid just never stops:

"The Trump administration is acting very rashly in part out of the desire to undo a climate measure under the Obama administration," he said. "This is an enormous mistake that is disastrous for taxpayers. The (Obama) rule would have saved billions of dollars over time."

Trump to revoke Obama-era flood risk building standards

U.S. President Donald Trump will revoke an Obama-era executive order on Tuesday that required strict building standards for government-funded projects to reduce exposure to increased flooding from sea level rise...


http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1AV1ZI



I believe by far the crucial influence in this decision is real-estate developers who want to keep selling that beach front and having the taxpayers pay for repairs after every flooding event or hurricane force damaging wind.
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 15:14:13

Yes, of course, pressure from that front must be enormous. Now we see what kind of politicians stand up to such pressure and do the right thing, and which ones cave to the pressure.

Meanwhile, more info on the atmospheric conditions that helped spawn the SL disaster (yes, along with bad land management, and also bad settlement patterns, bad sewage management...):

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/flood ... erra-leone

This summer, the waves moving off Africa and through the Atlantic have been unusually strong, leading to a very active early season across the Main Development Region of the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Bret, which developed east of the Lesser Antilles in June, was among the earliest Cape Verde tropical storms on record. Bret was followed in July by Don, another unusually early Cape Verde tropical storm.

The heaviest downpours in many parts of the globe have become heavier in recent decades, a trend attributed to human-produced climate change and expected to continue.

A study led by Christopher Taylor (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), published this spring in the journal Nature, finds that the Sahel’s most intense mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms) have tripled in frequency since 1982.

They argue that Saharan warming is helping to intensify convection within the MCSs through increased wind shear and changes to the Saharan air layer.
“The meridional gradient is projected to strengthen throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting that the Sahel will experience particularly marked increases in extreme rain,” the study concludes.
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 16 Aug 2017, 09:26:06

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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 16 Aug 2017, 14:38:36

Intact forests not only keep soil together, but they absorb water to prevent runoff.

Coast redwood forests are so dense that the amount of plant matter (biomass) is several times more than in a tropical rainforest. One old coast redwood has enough wood to make 20 three-bedroom houses and a giant sequoia has at least twice that amount. The General Sherman Tree has 600,000 board feet and the trunk itself weighs nearly 3,000,000 pounds, according to a webpage on the Palomar College website. About half the weight is water.

Equivalent to nine 16' X 32' residential swimming pools
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 16 Aug 2017, 18:11:12

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/16/ ... -to-nepal/

Intensifying Equatorial Rains: 3.3 Million Afflicted by Flooding in India and Bangladesh as Hundreds Lose Lives to Landslides from Sierra Leone to Nepal

... increasing severity of heavy rainfall events is just one aspect of human-forced climate change through fossil fuel burning. For as the Earth warms, both the rate of evaporation and precipitation increases. And as atmospheric moisture loading and convection increase coordinate with rising temperatures, so do the potential peak intensities of the most powerful storms.

...the Sahel’s most intense mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms) have tripled in frequency since 1982...

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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 21 Aug 2017, 06:22:28

http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-new ... kDqJN.html

Floods affect 16 million in Nepal, Bangladesh and India: Red Cross
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 30 Aug 2017, 15:40:10

Remember that there are horrific floods happening elsewhere in the world besides TX/LA:

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CONTRIBUTED TO MASSIVE FLOODS IN SOUTH ASIA

While most Americans are fixated on Hurricane Harvey, which continues to break rainfall records since making landfall along the coast on Friday, an even deadlier disaster is unfolding in South Asia. Across Nepal, Bangladesh, and India, an exceptionally strong monsoon season has left almost 1,200 dead and displaced or affected tens of millions more. Heavy rains led to unprecedented landslides and floods—as much as a third of Bangladesh is under water—leaving communities cut off as they face food and fresh water shortages and disease threats that will remain long after the water recedes.


https://psmag.com/environment/how-clima ... south-asia
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 31 Aug 2017, 21:37:40



Oxfam reports that two thirds of Bangladesh is currently under water.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-31/i ... ns/8858858
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 00:17:12

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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 13:31:17

Floods caused by a tropical depression in Vietnam killed 37 people, one of the highest death tolls recorded in the country from flooding, the disaster prevention agency said on Thursday.


Forty people were missing and 21 others were injured after rains caused landslides and flooding, mostly in northern and central Vietnam.
“Our entire village had sleepless nights…it’s impossible to fight against this water, it’s the strongest in years,” Ngo Thi Su, a resident in northwestern Hoa Binh province, was quoted as saying by state-run Vietnam Television (VTV).


http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/floods–landslides-in-vietnam-kill-37-people–thousands-evacuated-9303314

How many 'worst ever's are needed for some people to see that something fundamentally has changed in the climate!
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 17:29:32

FEMA seriously behind on revising floodplain maps

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has delayed decisions on flood zone determinations — in some cases by two years or more — and currently has more than 240 mapping projects on hold, the department's inspector general warned in a report dated Sept. 27.

As a result, only 42 percent of FEMA’s flood risk database is currently up to date, meaning more than half of the country’s flood map miles need to be revised, the review found. The agency’s stated goal is to have 80 percent of its flood maps current.


Ummmm, should their goal at least be 100%??

http://thehill.com/video/354564-in-afte ... vulnerable
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 21:04:23

As of yesterday's thunderstorm all day Toledo has set a new record for November rainfall and it is only the 19th of the month. Much worse we have river flood warnings in at least this county and the surrounding counties on all sides including over the border in Michigan.
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 09:52:46

Thanks for the update. I've been seeing horrific pictures of catastrophic flooding around the area of Athens, Greece.

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/11/15/ ... or-greece/
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 12:34:57

This is rather a PITA for me as I go about my business.

TOLEDO, Ohio (WTVG) - Multiple roads are still closed this morning in Hancock, Sandusky and Putnam and Paulding Counties because of flooding from over the weekend.

In Paulding, ODOT reports that SR 500 is closed between Stateline Road and CR 33 near Benton Township. In Harrison Township, SR 500 is closed between SR 613 and CR 61. Near Hedges, SR 613 is closed between SR 637 and CR 137.

In Putnam County, SR 634 is closed between SR 613 and SR 15, and again between SR 114 and SR 613. Also, SR 114 is closed between SR 224 and SR 694.

In Sandusky County, near Woodville, SR 105 is closed between US 23 and SR 582.

ODOT has no timetable for when these roads will reopen.


Northwest Ohio Flooding

There are now 8 counties in my surrounding area that still have flood warnings, my local one crested overnight and is receding so our county got taken off the list. Unfortunately rain is forecast for tomorrow and anything we get over a few mm will push us back up into flood stage.
Flooding List

For those who have never visited NW Ohio or SE Michigan, this whole area was first iron flat by the last glaciation 20,000 years ago and then sat under the level of Lake Erie until the Niagara River formed about 8,000 ybp and provided a lower level drainage route. As a result you can drive roughly 50 miles north to south and 30 miles from the western shore of Lake Erie to the west and the land is truly flat. If it were not for the patches of woods growing randomly you could see all the way to the horizon without a bump of a hill anywhere within eyesight. The largest hill anywhere around this area is the Toledo Metropolitan Landfill which you can spot from over 5 miles distance as the only bump on the landscape. As a consequence the area was very much the definition of swamp wetland when European settlers arrived in the 1690's and my county has a grid network of 3 meter deep constructed drainage ditches through the solid clay soil. Right now if I or anyone else had the misfortune of losing control and sliding into a ditch the odds are very high it would be fully submerged in the muddy flood water and not visible for a day or more until things drain to the natural creeks and rivers that flow from here into Lake Erie.

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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 15:08:54

Wow, I hadn't heard about that. Thanks, T. And stay safe!

Now on the 'sometimes pigs can fly' file:

Florida: the state’s climate-change-denier-in-chief governor puts money for sea level rise in his new budget

Governor Scott funding request to address sea level rise seen as turnaround for administration

Some longtime critics of Gov. Rick Scott said they saw progress this week on the issue of climate change in his 2018-19 state budget request.

Scott's $87.4 billion request includes $3.6 million for the Department of Environmental Protection to assist local governments in sea level rise planning and coastal "resilience" projects. ...


https://www.politico.com/states/florida ... ion-118725

thnx to sig at asif for text and link
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 17:36:30

Another weekly installment of this excellent series:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTSzYz54q9g

Much about deluges. It struck me watching all these video clips how much soil was being washed away.

This jibes with recent research on paleo-climate in the Iberian Peninsula (and elsewhere)...as it gets hotter we get more extreme storms, as shown from data from the PETM:


Hydrological implications of rapid global warming


Researchers studying a rapid global warming event, around 56 million years ago, have shown evidence of major changes in the intensity of rainfall and flood events. The findings indicate some of the likely implications should current trends of rising carbon dioxide and global warming continue…

The rapid global warming event, ~56 million years ago, known as the “Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum” or PETM has provided such insights.

The team developed detailed records of the PETM event from a sequence of marine sedimentary rocks, now exposed on the coast of the Basque country of northwest Spain.

Before, during and after the PETM, these sediments were laid down on the sea floor at the edge of the Atlantic Ocean, at depths of ~1000m, on the boundary between the continents and the open ocean. The sediments are made up of microscopic calcium carbonate shells and fine-grained clay and silt sediment that is washed in from the nearby European continent.

Remarkably, the new records show that the sediment delivery from land to this deep ocean location increased four-fold during the PETM event. The team associate this with major changes in the patterns of rainfall on land, with warming causing more extreme rainfall events, with floods and the associated erosion and transport of sediments into the oceans.

“There are stunning records of the PETM event in northern Spain” says lead author Dr Tom Dunkley Jones, “including records of ancient land environments that experienced major changes in response to increased rainfall intensity at the start the start of the event. Now we have a direct link to the deep ocean, where some of the material eroded from land finally ends up.”

Dr Stephen Grimes of Plymouth University, who initiated the research project, highlighted the climate changes that must have caused this increase in sediment erosion and transport — “We have climate model simulations of the effect of warming on rainfall during the PETM event, and they show some changes in the average amounts of rainfall, but the largest change is how this rainfall is packaged up — it’s concentrated in more rapid, extreme events — larger and bigger storms.”

This fits with what the team see in the rate of sediment accumulation in the deep sea — large flood events transporting more sediment, and moving it further.

Professor Melanie Leng, of the British Geological Survey and University of Nottingham, and co-author on the study is concerned about what this represents for the future, “From records of the PETM, like this one, it has become very clear that global warming causes major changes in the patterns and intensity of rainfall events. These changes are so large that we see evidence of them in the geological record, as a many-fold increase in the mass of sediments transported from land to the oceans. This has the potential for profound impacts on shallow marine ecosystems, and that is exactly what we see at the PETM.”

Although the world warmed by more than 4ºC during the PETM, and this happened very rapidly for a period of natural climate change (between five and ten thousand years), it was slower than what is being observed in 21st Century warming.

“We’re now facing the potential for a warming of 2ºC or more in less than two centuries,” said Dr Dunkley Jones, “this is more than an order of magnitude faster than warming at the start of the PETM. The geological record shows that when the planet warms this much and this fast, there will be major changes in floods, erosion and sediment transport.”


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 111336.htm
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Re: Deluge Thread 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 13:00:36

To flip from global events in one week, how about long term trends in one location?

The math here is so simple, a four-year-old child would be able to understand it...

(go find me a four year old, I can't make head or tale of this stuff! :lol: :lol: :lol: )

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... tatistics/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2rX-1rTuhE
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