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The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 12:18:16

People have definately and without any doubt confidently been predicting TEOTWAWKI since Biblical times - we have the historical records to prove it.

Personally I think it goes back many thousands of years before that, when the local shaman of the ape troop traded his mastery of lightning and other weather phenomena for more food and females. Doom has always been a good business to be in, in spite of all the competition today.

But it's not a healthy preoccupation, either. In fact, it's dangerous. The Jonestown mass suicide was an extreme symptom, Michael Ruppert eating his gun another.

The human race is in overshoot. Nature is correcting the problem, or will soon - within say, two centuries. Don't get even slightly invested in Doom in your lifetime, or you'll be severely disappointed.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 14:30:42

KaiserJeep wrote:People have definately and without any doubt confidently been predicting TEOTWAWKI since Biblical times - we have the historical records to prove it.


Sure. Anyone capable of reading a history book knows this, but the real question is, why won't people pick up that history book and learn this...prior to recycling the same bad ideas over and over again?

Is it really because this is a religious issue for peaker doomers, at its core?

https://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2007 ... -peak-oil/

kaiserjeep wrote:But it's not a healthy preoccupation, either. In fact, it's dangerous. The Jonestown mass suicide was an extreme symptom, Michael Ruppert eating his gun another.


Matt Savinar did seem to be afraid of his band of happy zealots, there at the end. When he cut the dead albatross of peak oil from around his neck, he did it fast and hard and did a wonderful expose on the religious beliefs that populated LATOC.

kaiserjeep wrote:The human race is in overshoot. Nature is correcting the problem, or will soon - within say, two centuries. Don't get even slightly invested in Doom in your lifetime, or you'll be severely disappointed.


And most folks here, and their kids, and even their kids, all get to die first rather than being anywhere near it!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 02 Jun 2017, 09:33:59

AdamB wrote:Matt Savinar did seem to be afraid of his band of happy zealots, there at the end. When he cut the dead albatross of peak oil from around his neck, he did it fast and hard and did a wonderful expose on the religious beliefs that populated LATOC.


I may be misinterpreting your snark but did Matt Savinar ever write any sort of blog post or press release explaining his exit from LATOC?

Another person who has exited the scene is Sharon Astyk. The last time she wrote anything remotely related to doom/sustainability was three years ago and she put her farm up for sale last year.

Ultimately people's actions speak louder than words. Even those here who are still beating the doomer drum so loudly, how many are feverishly prepping like so many were 10 years ago? I think...not many. People still cling to their ideologies for the sake of protecting their fragile egos but at a visceral level most of us have hit the proverbial snooze bar.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 02 Jun 2017, 19:18:22

asg70 wrote:
AdamB wrote:Matt Savinar did seem to be afraid of his band of happy zealots, there at the end. When he cut the dead albatross of peak oil from around his neck, he did it fast and hard and did a wonderful expose on the religious beliefs that populated LATOC.


I may be misinterpreting your snark but did Matt Savinar ever write any sort of blog post or press release explaining his exit from LATOC?


He did. Several versions. And then erased them all along with the 2 alternate web forums he attempted to migrate to, as LATOC 1 imploded under the weight of the neediness of its posters.

It was perhaps the most amazing expose of what peak oil leaders thought of their worshipers that I've ever seen or heard of. But Matt couldn't leave it up, and ultimately he edited the first rant (and its foul language) to something more tame but just as revealing, and then he generalized that a little more, and within about 48 hours it all vanished, and it was the opportunity he needed to shut down everythingdown.

It appeared to me that an opportunity came along he could use as an excuse to get the dead albatross from around his neck, and he took it. Rip the bandaid off fast, do the deep dive into palm reading and such. But his honesty, during that weekend....amazing AND revealing.

asg70 wrote:
Another person who has exited the scene is Sharon Astyk. The last time she wrote anything remotely related to doom/sustainability was three years ago and she put her farm up for sale last year.


Quite a few have quietly wandered off. Websites vanished as well. The lobbying arm of peak oil, ASPO USA, has about vanished, changed its name, rewritten their mission statement to become all eco, PCI is doing about the same thing.

asg70 wrote:
Ultimately people's actions speak louder than words. Even those here who are still beating the doomer drum so loudly, how many are feverishly prepping like so many were 10 years ago? I think...not many. People still cling to their ideologies for the sake of protecting their fragile egos but at a visceral level most of us have hit the proverbial snooze bar.


Hard not to when I just bought some gasoline today at <$2.00/gal. Every peak oiler from a decade past is seeing the same thing, and it just puts the lie in the claims of peaks past.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 18:33:42

How about this Domino effect: Credit markets seize up and poof goes the modern Economies. Borrowed from a poster on the News section
"For there to be a market, there must be two prime players, buyers and sellers that are free to negotiate price. We are sitting here on the edge of a cratered economy and musing over why gas prices have not risen.

On the seller’s side, i.e. the production side, there is a rather simple process in any mining operation. The large concentrations of the easy to get at stuff are always mined first. As the operation begins to deplete those easy sources, innovators introduce new technologies to augment production. The steam engine came into its own because there was a need to pump water out of coal mines. Those engines did not put more coal in the veins that were being mined. What they did do was make some inaccessible coal accessible. At some point the veins play out or the techniques needed for extraction become cost prohibitive and production stops. Either way, at some point coal mines close.

On the buyer’s side, the sought after product must in some way increase income or enhance the standard of living for the purchaser. Oil does that for western civilization in a million ways. Oil is the single factor, the one ingredient, that if withdrawn will collapse our civilization in a matter of days. Nothing else is in place that can fuel our transports. Before alternatives could be brought on line the world wide supply chains would collapse. The resulting chaos would take down civilization.

For this simple reason, nothing about the oil market is real. Everything is contrived and controlled. Still, there is a dynamic that is playing out below the surface. It has to do with the declining ratio that exists between the energy consumed in production and the remaining net energy available for sale. We are very rapidly approaching a zero sum game. We are getting to the point that the calories invested in production are exceeding the calories produced by the process. This declining ratio is evidenced in declining profit margins. In a real market, when extraction costs rise to the point that they exceeded the product’s market price, production would simply stop.

That is not the case with oil. Unprofitable oil is being extracted the world over. The fact that it is not profitable is concealed first and foremost by a never ending line of credit that has been made available to producers. As long as the bills can be paid by borrowed money, the profit margins are irrelevant. The spice will continue to flow even at a loss. Secondly the full impact of this imbalance is being hidden to some extent by the simple fact that source of calories used in production are not identical to the calories produced by the process. Coal produced electricity will not power an F-16.

Oil production will continue and prices will continue to remain low as long as the exponential credit creation continues. When credit collapses oil production implodes"
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 20:39:45

AdamB wrote:He did. Several versions. And then erased them all along with the 2 alternate web forums he attempted to migrate to, as LATOC 1 imploded under the weight of the neediness of its posters.


I just discovered this reply. Do you happen to have a copy of Matt Savinar's farewell manifesto? I'd really like to read it.

Probably the hardest thing human beings find to do is to admit to being wrong, and in the age of the internet, seeing someone, anyone, admit to being wrong is as rare as hen's teeth. That, I think, is why these people just sort of quietly pack their bags and walk to the exit rather than making some sort of statement to address what all their mis-spent activism/commentary really means. This is really disappointing when some of these people wrote entire books on the subject (like Greer). They're writers.
They're not at a loss for words unless it's to admit to having wasted a portion of their lives fixating on an imperfect vision of the future.

I really think that explains everything. The more time and energy you invest in an endeavor the more reluctant you are to accept failure. That's why these people have sort of tried to rebrand themselves so they can shake off their old followers and pick up new ones who have no memory of their prior selves so they never have to answer any awkward chicken little style questions.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 14:07:57

"We are getting to the point that the calories invested in production are exceeding the calories produced by the process." With respect to just the drilling of new wells and the production of existing wells it is impossible for this to happen. I assume such statements are based on the unrealisticly high assumption of the amount of energy ("calories") it takes to drill, complete and produce wells. Long before the number of Btu's used to drill, complete and produce a typical oil/NG well even match the Btu's produced let alone exceed those consumed the economic analysis will kill a project.

The easiest way to appreciate the dynamic is the think of the value of the Btu's involved on both sides of the equation. The cost of the Btu's used to drill a typical well is only about 5% to 10% of the total cost. When evaluating a project essentially it is done on $'s in vs $'s out. Only 10% or less of the $'s in represent the Btu's utilized to drill the project. So assume a project returns ONLY the same value of the Btu's used. Obviously the project would be a big money loser since the value of its Btu's produced fails to return 90%+ of what it cost IN TOTAL to drill the well.

I only offer a rough estimate but a project will calculate out as uneconomic when the amount of Btu's produced is less then 5 or 6 times the amount of Btu's consumed. This relation also creates a dynamic that I'm sure many here cannot accept: the big decrease in the oil price has resulted in higher EROEI to justify drilling wells today. Again think in terms of $'s and not Btu's. If a well required $15 million in revenue to justify drilling in 2014 when oil was $80+/bbl how many $50 bbls would it take today to recover the same $15 million? Obviously more bbls. But the identical well drilled in Jan 2014 would require the same number of Btu's as a well drilled in Jan 2017.

So it's really that simple: same number of Btu"s consumed and more Btu's produced = a higher EROEI. So much for the erroneous claim that EROEI was on a continuously declining trajectory.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 14:17:02

With all due respect to your knowledge Rockman, is not the heavy lending going on in those shale fracked areas a testament to the unprofitable nature of those reserves and thus by connection the marginal EROEI of many of these plays?
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 14:39:17

But I do like the falling domino image. But different then I image most see it. Mine has a number of separate domino rows running back from a confluence centered on two dominos back to back. This would be the actual moment of global peak oil. Which might be some years ahead or was within the last 2 years. And from that point another confluence separates into multiple lines of dominos going forward in time.

And at some time in the past the domino facing back fell over. And multiple lines of dominos have been falling at different rates. Some result in high oil prices and others low prices. Some declining global production and others increasing. Some timecrash into military conflicts and others into peaceful joint ventures. Where countries sit in the confusing jumble varies.

And what does the future falling dominos look like beyond that PO intersection in time? Who knows? But it might not look much different then the cluster we've been experiencing for some time.

And there you have it: the workings of a bored mind stuck on a drill site with a broken rig with nothing else to do. LOL.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 15:38:31

ROCKMAN wrote:
And there you have it: the workings of a bored mind stuck on a drill site with a broken rig with nothing else to do. LOL.

Not to pry into propitiatory information if it matters but.... What broke? How long will it take to fix it? How much will that cost? How much will that move the needle on the break even point on that well? If you can answer that is fine. If you can't answer for any reason that is also fine.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 23:26:22

asg70 wrote:
AdamB wrote:He did. Several versions. And then erased them all along with the 2 alternate web forums he attempted to migrate to, as LATOC 1 imploded under the weight of the neediness of its posters.


I just discovered this reply. Do you happen to have a copy of Matt Savinar's farewell manifesto? I'd really like to read it.


Wish I had done screen shots that night, it was classic. He changed his response at least 3 or 4 times, foul language at first, and then the juicy rant against his followers. By about the 5th edit it was more bland and he had removed the evidence of his ire, whatever happened that weekend (it was implied that as technical problems mounted in the forum, his psycho-religious groupies looking for a daddy figure took to Facebook to express their need for him, and he exploded over it) wasn't fully explained.

asg70 wrote:Probably the hardest thing human beings find to do is to admit to being wrong, and in the age of the internet, seeing someone, anyone, admit to being wrong is as rare as hen's teeth.


Oh, he didn't admit being wrong, only that he couldn't take the groupies anymore. Interestingly, on this website, he was accused of basically just being a peak oil profiteer, which looked to be true. On his original website, he often asked people to use his Amazon affiliate ID or something, so he would get some credit or something when they bought whatever he was pimping (at one point he was pimping those facial masks because of the CIA released bird flu thing, remember that conspiracy theory?).

He landed in astrology, he still uses his peak oil cultology in his resume at his astrology publishing site. Quoted on the floor of Congress he was!

Ever read his book? He attempted to sell it at one point, but it is out there for free now, as a testament as to why you don't ask an unemployed ambulance chaser questions about science. Or math. Or anything that isn't conning people into buying solar ovens so Amazon will give you a cut.

asg70 wrote:
That, I think, is why these people just sort of quietly pack their bags and walk to the exit rather than making some sort of statement to address what all their mis-spent activism/commentary really means. This is really disappointing when some of these people wrote entire books on the subject (like Greer). They're writers.
They're not at a loss for words unless it's to admit to having wasted a portion of their lives fixating on an imperfect vision of the future.

I really think that explains everything. The more time and energy you invest in an endeavor the more reluctant you are to accept failure. That's why these people have sort of tried to rebrand themselves so they can shake off their old followers and pick up new ones who have no memory of their prior selves so they never have to answer any awkward chicken little style questions.


The number of peak oil websites where absolutely ridiculous claims were made, are pretty much gone. You are right, having to face their own ignorance at a later date isn't something they are intellectually capable of handling. Probably a common characteristic even outside of the peak oil world, but you see it stamped all over this topic on the web.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 23:41:47

Looker - "...is not the heavy lending going on in those shale fracked areas a testament to the unprofitable nature of those reserves..." Since when does borrowing money to expand a business AUTOMATICALLY indicate that venture isn't profitable? Right now all the big shale players are still in business, still servicing debt, still paying salaries (at least to the employees they didn't lay off) and still paying dividends to shareholders. Exactly how does that equate to those companies not being profitable?

Of course many smaller companies did file Chapter 11 bankruptcy because the decline in oil prices rendered them unable to service debt and carry on operating. And according to some of our "armchair" experts the industry has borrowed $1 to $2 TRILLION. Yet at last count the amount of debt dismissed by the court is less the $100 Billion. But how many would have carried on operating profitably if oil were still $90/bbl?
IOW if developing the shales were losing money for most companies why were there many bankruptcies filed when oil was $90/bbl? Borrowing capex per se didn't make most of those companies unprofitable and push them into bankruptcy... $45/bbl oil did.

As far as EROEI is matters not if a company was using borrowed money or its own cash flow to drill. Once the EROEI fell to around 5 or 6 the economic analysis killed a prospect. I get the impression that you think companies make riskier investments or accept lower rates of return if the capex were borrowed. I don't know what businesses you worked in but I've been in the petroleum industry for more then 40 years. And not only has every company I've worked with was more frugal with borrowed money then free cash flowed but typically required a higher ROR investing borrowed capex to offset the interest payments. And much to long to explain but many of the financial institutions lending monies (especially to small pubcos) actually have significant control over how that money is spent. Many times I made presentations to such money lenders which provided credit lines to a company I represented. If they didn't like the project the would not FUND it. To fund a project is a very specific process. My company might have a $50 million line of credit but in many cases I couldn't borrow $2 million to drill a well unless the lender agreed to fund it. Where a lot of bond players got burned is when they essentially gave some companies blank checks. They did so because they were greedy and wanted those high interest rates.

Now that you have me thinking about it in 40+ years of doing and reviewing economic analysis of drilling projects I don't recall once the subject coming up in the decision making process. Typically such financial matters are handled by the CFO and his staff with not much communication with the geologic and engineering departments. Back in the 70's bust a very poorly run company I worked for had a $100 million balloon note come due and didn't have $1 to pay. And none of the geology and engineering staff had a clue. We kept evaluating projects as if we had money. LOL.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 00:02:10

vt - No big secret: one of the mud pumps seized up. They thought it was a bearing and were still breaking it down when I left. The contractor said he would just drill with one pump. I told him that was OK but my engineer would be sending him an email notifying him that he would be off our insurance if he did. Really pissed him off because he was going to have to eat the day rate.

About 30 years ago thought I was about to have a very bad night when a driller lost a pump, didn't tell the company man and kept drilling. And then took a kick and the young night pusher over reacted and f*cked up the other pump. Stood there next to the escape capsule waiting to see if we were going to get dumped into the Gulf at 0200. Such memories stay with you. LOL.

So came home. I didn't need to be there anyway. On weekends I might swing by and have a cup with my consultant just to be sociable. And let them know I might drop by anytime. LOL.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 11:45:14

onlooker wrote:With all due respect to your knowledge Rockman, is not the heavy lending going on in those shale fracked areas a testament to the unprofitable nature of those reserves and thus by connection the marginal EROEI of many of these plays?


So...they have been unprofitable since tight oil / shale gas production began in the 19th century, and since hydraulic fracturing started in the late 40's, and only NOW you've noticed they are unprofitable? Or should I say, someone else claimed to notice and you repeat it because you don't know how to refute, or don't want to.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 11:48:01

asg70 wrote:
AdamB wrote:He did. Several versions. And then erased them all along with the 2 alternate web forums he attempted to migrate to, as LATOC 1 imploded under the weight of the neediness of its posters.


I just discovered this reply. Do you happen to have a copy of Matt Savinar's farewell manifesto? I'd really like to read it.


In case you were interested in Matt's original drivel, I found this online copy of his book, back when he was trying to get famous.

http://www.wermac.org/pdf/oilage4.pdf
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 12:15:40

AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:With all due respect to your knowledge Rockman, is not the heavy lending going on in those shale fracked areas a testament to the unprofitable nature of those reserves and thus by connection the marginal EROEI of many of these plays?


So oil producers, which make many $billions in profits over time collectively, have no idea what they're doing, and piling into fracking to make giant losses in the fullness of time? And the global oil glut, built on the back of the extra crude production from American oil fracking doesn't exist? Because of course, it couldn't, due to all the losses?

So do you really think you know more about economics than a large proportion of the oil industry -- when you repeatedly show that you know almost nothing about economics?

And of course, you know for a fact, that oil prices will never rise (making existing resources more profitable), even as global demand continues to rise each and every year the world isn't in a deep recession?

It's beyond dubious. What color is the sky in your world?
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 13:26:05

AdamB wrote:
asg70 wrote:
AdamB wrote:He did. Several versions. And then erased them all along with the 2 alternate web forums he attempted to migrate to, as LATOC 1 imploded under the weight of the neediness of its posters.

I just discovered this reply. Do you happen to have a copy of Matt Savinar's farewell manifesto? I'd really like to read it.

In case you were interested in Matt's original drivel, I found this online copy of his book, back when he was trying to get famous.
http://www.wermac.org/pdf/oilage4.pdf


lifeaftertheoilcrash.net is on the archive.org wayback but so far I've been unable to access the forum through there, but I now have an itch I can't scratch as far as dredging up any public statements Matt made on his way out of the scene.

I also wonder how angry he might get if he were approached about this today.

BTW, this is the soundtrack that must have been going underneath the doom-blogosophere when oil prices tanked, shale took over, the economy recovered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imamcajBEJs
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 13:31:51

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:With all due respect to your knowledge Rockman, is not the heavy lending going on in those shale fracked areas a testament to the unprofitable nature of those reserves and thus by connection the marginal EROEI of many of these plays?


So oil producers, which make many $billions in profits over time collectively, have no idea what they're doing, and piling into fracking to make giant losses in the fullness of time? And the global oil glut, built on the back of the extra crude production from American oil fracking doesn't exist? Because of course, it couldn't, due to all the losses?
The oil producers know exactly what they are doing. They are bilking you, your retirement/pension, CD's, everything and your children's future and whatever it is you hold dear.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:So do you really think you know more about economics than a large proportion of the oil industry -- when you repeatedly show that you know almost nothing about economics?
The oil industry know all about economics . . . the kind that make them money and will leave you in the poor house. They even figured out how to put a President in office.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And of course, you know for a fact, that oil prices will never rise (making existing resources more profitable), even as global demand continues to rise each and every year the world isn't in a deep recession?

It's beyond dubious. What color is the sky in your world?

global demand has not risen in a decade. Only US demand. We are forfeiting our own future
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 14:42:30

pstarr wrote:global demand has not risen in a decade.


Someone really should log every time you say something that is patently wrong.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/20 ... 200563ec03
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 15:13:45

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:global demand has not risen in a decade.


Someone really should log every time you say something that is patently wrong.

Have at it :) I'm all for it, constructive make work. It seems its all you have time for? And if it take you off the keyboard for a while. A long while lol
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