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THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 16:18:28

A major eruption of Mount Agung in [Bali] Indonesia could happen at any time. This volcano has potential to temporarily cool the global climate.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status ... 1376771072

Bali’s Mount Agung threatens to erupt for the first time in more than 50 years
https://theconversation.com/balis-mount ... ears-84356

Mount Agung in Bali at highest alert level 4. These are the alert levels for volcanoes in Indonesia. @USConGenSby @usaidindonesia
https://twitter.com/usembassyjkt/status ... 2826939392

More tremors as Mt Agung threatens to erupt
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western ... 77a2170161

thanks to sig at asif for these
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 16:28:58

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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 26 Sep 2017, 08:50:25

Thanks for those relevant papers, mbs.

Here's more:


Vulcanologists are predicting a significant volcanic eruption of Mount Agung in Indonesia in the next few days


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-19/m ... on/8959240

There is an expectation that it could be as significant for global weather as the My Pinatubo eruption in 1991. The Mt Pinatubo eruption reduced global Temperatures by about 0.1 degree for three years after which it resumed the previous climb having no long term effect.

In the Arctic the effect lasted about three years and temperatures were lowered by 0.5 degrees. If this eruption is as big as Mt Pinatubo we should expect a recovery in the Arctic Sea Ice extent, and volume over the next three years.

(But a crash in grain supply...)

thnx to dr at asif for link and text
Last edited by dohboi on Tue 26 Sep 2017, 09:15:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 26 Sep 2017, 09:09:04

dohboi wrote:Thanks for those relevant papers, mbs.

Here's more:


Vulcanologists are predicting a significant volcanic eruption of Mount Agung in Indonesia in the next few days


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-19/m ... on/8959240

There is an expectation that it could be as significant for global weather as the My Pinatubo eruption in 1991. The Mt Pinatubo eruption reduced global Temperatures by about 0.1 degree for three years after which it resumed the previous climb having no long term effect.

In the Arctic the effect lasted about three years and temperatures were lowered by 0.5 degrees. If this eruption is as big as Mt Pinatubo we should expect a recovery in the Arctic Sea Ice extent, and volume over the next three years.

(But a crash in grain supply...)

*********************

The magma chamber is big i hope its not bigger than Pinatubo..... Krakatau:?

=> "A year without summer" with 7-8 billion people on earth would be an apocalypse for sure
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 26 Sep 2017, 09:27:12

Indeed, and we may soon find out:

Bali volcano eruption could be hours away after unprecedented seismic activity


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... ount-agung
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Tue 26 Sep 2017, 09:41:24

The first chart below shows the energy created by these tremors, while the second shows the frequency of tremors, increasing dramatically since the start of September.

Image

Image

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09 ... 5000-flee/


Mount Agung in Bali is experiencing unprecedented levels of seismic activity and could erupt in a “matter of hours” if tremors continue, Indonesia’s volcanology centre has said.

More than 75,000 people have been evacuated in the last few days as Agung, the highest point of the island, has experienced hundreds of internal volcanic earthquakes.

“Instrumentally we have never recorded such high energy or seismicity from Mount Agung,”
Devy Kamil Syahbana, a seismologist from Indonesia’s centre for volcanology and geological hazard mitigation, told the Guardian.

Data showed that Mount Agung experienced 844 volcanic earthquakes on Monday, and 300 to 400 earthquakes by midday on Tuesday, he said. “We need to pay attention because these kinds of earthquakes indicate the movement of magma and increase the probability of an eruption....”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... ount-agung
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 26 Sep 2017, 15:08:48

Dejavu?
Image
http://www.volcanocafe.org/krakatoa-a-b ... -the-past/

Image

http://big-volcanic.com/agung-volcano-n ... i-volcano/


Speculating on Agung Eruption Possibilities

No eruption occurs as the magma pushing from below can’t produce enough energy to reach the surface.
An eruption occurs, but it only produces a small eruptive event or lava flow.
An eruption occurs, starting with throat clearing and potentially pushing out a new lava flow. Once the de-gassed magma is cleared from the upper conduits, the gas-rich magma starts to erupt in a much more explosive manner, creating an eruption in the range of VEI-4 to VEI-5.This eruption results in damaging and potentially deadly lahars, bothersome ashfall in areas, and a lot of destruction of property and crops. A few may be caught in pyroclastic flows if they have ignored the evacuations warnings and exclusion zones.
Not super likely, but an eruption larger than VEI-5 potentially occurs. At this point, all bets are off as to what would or could happen here.......

**************

Lets hope NO Krakatau event!
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 27 Sep 2017, 09:25:40

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EI9tS4_nl7A


Mount Tambora: The Year Without A Summer 1815/1816
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnToXezXyhE

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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 27 Sep 2017, 14:50:22

https://www.arte.tv/de/videos/059582-00 ... raenderte/

Video Arte documentation volcano Tambora

German est Francais

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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 27 Sep 2017, 16:14:15

7.02pm: White smoke spotted rising from Mount Agung crater as chances fo eruption "quite large"

A notice issued by Indonesia’s National Board for Disaster Management, said that plumes of white smoke are escaping the volcano’s crater.

The warning said: “There was white smoke observed some 50m above of peak of the crater.

“The chances of the eruption are quite large. But it can not be ascertained when it will erupt with certainty..."


http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/859 ... nings-live
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 04:10:39

Another day, another volcano....

BBC wrote:An erupting volcano in Vanuatu has sparked an unprecedented evacuation of an entire island.

All 11,000 residents of Ambae have been told to leave and will be moved to other islands in the Pacific state.

The Manaro Voui volcano, which has been rumbling for days, began spewing ash in a "moderate eruption" over the weekend.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41423856
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 29 Sep 2017, 12:19:03

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-4 ... ng-erupted

The last time Mount Agung erupted
Indonesia has warned that the active volcano on the tourist island of Bali is entering a "critical phase", amid fears of an imminent eruption.
More than 75,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.
Mount Agung last erupted in 1963, and people had just minutes to flee.
The BBC found survivors of that eruption at a shelter, reliving their past experience.
29 Sep 2017
From the section Asia
*****************
Lets hope it is maximal this category ...
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 03 Oct 2017, 10:43:30

Large Volcanic Eruptions in Tropics can Trigger El Nino Events

Enormous eruptions trigger El Niño events by pumping millions of tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, which form a sulfuric acid cloud, reflecting solar radiation and reducing the average global surface temperature, according to the study co-authored by Alan Robock, a distinguished professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.

The study, published online today in Nature Communications, used sophisticated climate model simulations to show that El Niño tends to peak during the year after large volcanic eruptions like the one at Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991.

Cooling in tropical Africa after volcanic eruptions weakens the West African monsoon, and drives westerly wind anomalies near the equator over the western Pacific, the study says. The anomalies are amplified by air-sea interactions in the Pacific, favoring an El Niño-like response.

Climate model simulations show that Pinatubo-like eruptions tend to shorten La Niñas, lengthen El Niños and lead to unusual warming during neutral periods, the study says.

If there's a big volcanic eruption tomorrow, Robock said he could make predictions for seasonal temperatures, precipitation and the appearance of El Niño next winter. "If you're a farmer and you're in a part of the world where El Niño or the lack of one determines how much rainfall you will get, you could make plans ahead of time for what crops to grow, based on the prediction for precipitation," he said.

Image

Myriam Khodri et al, Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa, Nature Communications (2017).
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 03 Oct 2017, 11:19:29

vox - And we've already gone over how the strength of El Nino strongly influences hurricane development and strength. As I said before: a very complex dynamic that requires a COMPLETE global system analysis to understand and not just focusing on individual components. Which is what many models do.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 23:27:06

https://www.skepticalscience.com/Climat ... Agung.html


Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung


...an eruption comparable in magnitude to the 1963 Mount Agung eruption occurring during a La Niña would lead to significantly more cooling than if ENSO neutral conditions coincided with it (Figure 1). Similarly, such an eruption would cool significantly less if it happened during an El Niño. The CESM on average suggests almost 0.3°C cooling for an eruption during a La Niña and less than 0.1°C during an El Niño.

The model also suggests that for an eruption of this strength, global temperature should return to pre-eruption levels within about 5 years, irrespective of which ENSO state prevails during the eruption (Figure 1)...

...This example also shows that global [atmospheric] temperature, albeit popular, is not the most robust quantity to measure changes in Earth’s climate. Even absent a strong external forcing, global temperature can vary substantially from year to year, making it difficult to separate the signal from the noise in case of a volcanic eruption or increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Instead, scientists propose to look at quantities such as global sea level or ocean heat content to take the pulse of our planet15. Those quantities integrate the response of the climate system over very large volumes, thus beating down the noise relative to the signal.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 13:26:54

Yellowstone supervolcano may blow sooner than thought — and could wipe out life on the planet

Scientists working in and around Yellowstone National Park say that the supervolcano sitting under the tourist attraction may blow sooner than thought, an eruption that could wipe out life on the planet.

According to National Geographic, the researchers, from Arizona State University, analyzed minerals in fossilized ash from the most recent mega-eruption and found changes in temperature and composition that had only taken a few decades. Until now, the magazine reported, geologists had thought it would take centuries for the supervolcano to make the transition. ...


https://amp.usatoday.com/story/757337001/

And some of the latest from Agung here, though if anyone has better sources at hand, please do share:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4547829/b ... el-latest/
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 11:47:26

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Öræfajökull observed from space

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 13:55:09

Öræfajökull is another one to keep an eye on, but volcanic activity is nothing out of the ordinary in Iceland.


Image

http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/natur ... rom_space/
The European Space Agency (ESA) satellite called SENITEL -1 has been photographing the surface of Öræfajökull from space and in the images, developments are clearly visible.

According to a short report on the Facebook page of the volcano and natural hazard department of the University of Iceland the images show that there were no cracks in the cauldera in Öræfajökull at the end of October.

However, on November 8th there were clear changes and obvious cracks in the middle of the cauldera. These cracks are even larger in images taken yesterday, November 20th.

Image showing the icecap cracking due to the volcanic activity below.
Image
Last edited by dolanbaker on Tue 21 Nov 2017, 14:11:13, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 14:05:13

Wow, thanks for the update, dol. Hadn't heard of that one.
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Re: THE Volcano Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 14:17:39

This is a useful site to watch volcanic activity in Iceland http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volc ... arthquakes
This type of activity is so common that it is combined with the weather.
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