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Saudi America Will Overtake Saudi Arabia As Top producer

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Saudi America Will Overtake Saudi Arabia As Top producer

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 04:04:06

ROCKMAN wrote:"By 2025 or so, with many mainstream makers in the fray, hopefully EV sales will be in the many million range." Millions...not tens of millions then? Let's make a. Completely absurd prediction: half the new vehicles sold in 2025 will be EV's (which will be powered by electricity produced by burning fossil fuels more then any other source) and the rest ICE's. So in 8 years there will be about 50 million new ICE's rolling down the road emitting GHG into the atmosphere. And 50 million EV's the majority of which will be powered by ff sourced electricity based on the current projrction of renewable energy growth. So where exactly is the good news? Yes, better then 100 million new ICE's. But still not good news by any measure for the sake of the climate.

And that's based upon an impossible projection.
To take your impossible example one step further each of those 50 million EVs will consume some 4000 to 5000 KWHs of electricity which is equal to a modest houses consumption. Do we have capacity in the grid for 50 million more houses or plans to build it? And that is just the first 50 million cars with another 220 million to go.
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Re: Saudi America Will Overtake Saudi Arabia As Top producer

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 15:48:52

vt - And now that you mention it let's go to another extreme. Such as the 1.2 billion vehicles on the road today are eventually replaced by EV's. But wait: one more not very likely extreme assumption: not only do many in the future generations NOT own a private vehicle but half of the current owners give up "happy motoring". So even with those rediculous assumptions we eventually end up with 600 million EV's sucking on that big electricity tit some time in the future. Or about 12X as much as in your model.

But now that I think of it, no problem: we do have plenty of coal left to burn. LOL.
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