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Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 17:41:58

Sys1 wrote:
Climate change is a minor environmental threat


Yeah, try saying that to people handling Category 5 hurricanes in caraibes, moosons in India and Bangladesh, heat waves in north Africa and India last summer (more than 50°C, people dying of heat in India clothes factories)
And wait until global warming will kill humans crops necessary to feed all those billions folks living in cities.
As soon as north and south Earth ice pole melt to water, global warming will go exponential and will shift from what you call "minor environmental threat" to "ELE", aka extinction level event.

No reputable science would blame global warming on several back-to-back hurricanes in one year. Nor would they attribute the hurricane lapse (Harvey is the first major hurricane to make landfall in almost 12 years) to the end of global warming.

The earth is a much more complex system then the climate physicists care to believe. They don't understand how a trees branches out into a complex fractal and steals co2 from the atmosphere. Few really a clue about the planet earth. I am tired of their incomplete models.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 18:35:10

pstarr wrote:Climate change is a minor environmental threat, a media distraction that allows us to put off the hard decisions. We must become conservatives all of us. Conserve what we have. Reuse plastic bags or we won't have any plastic bags in the future. Turn down the thermostat or we will freeze in the next years. Goes for left and right. Stop the eco-vacations and plant a tree.

Our obsession with climate change gives folks a break. It's a gift. Most folks who (claim to) worry about it really believes we have 50 years of grace, that we can keep debating the issue and discussing solutions. Meanwhile exponential resource depletion marches on. So we don't have 50 years of grace. But not because of abrupt climate change.


There is a lot of truth in your statements actually. In many ways climate change is just hanging in the air as this potential chaos decade after decade effectively taking a lot of people off the hook in facing the already stampeding elephant in the room which is the parasitic way our species has already plundered more than 50% of our planets terrestrial surface. plundered our resource base, plundered the habitat of countless flora and fauna. Climate change continues to get all the attention. Why? Because it is still off there in the future, still drawing our attention off there into the future, distracting us from devastation in real time right here and now.

There are parameters more relevant than climate change if you really want to see the impact of human overshoot.

Just one example:

http://www.iucnredlist.org/

Image

Figure 1. RLIs for reef-forming corals, birds, mammals, and amphibians. Coral species are moving towards increased extinction risk most rapidly, while amphibians are, on average, the most threatened group. An RLI value of 1.0 equates to all species qualifying as Least Concern (i.e., not expected to become Extinct in the near future). An RLI value of 0 equates to all species having gone Extinct. A constant RLI value over time indicates that the overall extinction risk for the group is constant. If the rate of biodiversity loss were reducing, the RLI would show an upward trend.

I declare that Pstarr has won this debate for now..... maybe this will change in the next five years but for now climate change is mostly a distraction.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 19:16:43

Ibon wrote:
pstarr wrote:Climate change is a minor environmental threat, a media distraction


I have to respectfully disagree. Climate change is causing sea level rise that is already impacting coastal cities, as well as creating droughts and killer heat waves. What will happen as we see 10-15 feet of sea level rise and much hotter temperatures?

You don't have to look too far down the road to see that low lying areas in many of the world's great coastal cities will have to be abandoned and parts of many of the worlds great agricultural areas will be either under water or dealing with drought in decades.

And thats just for starters.

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 19:37:10

While what Pstarr and Ibon are saying are true and I appreciate the expertise of Ibon on ecological matters, I must also question how our species can ignore what can only be described as an existential threat. Because, how can our species or any other higher life form adapt to conditions similar to what existed and occurred 250 million years ago during the Great Dying ie. The greatest ELE ever on Earth. I pose this question because I do not have a sufficient climate science background to even attempt to answer it. I think humanity will have to abandon FF sooner rather than later, that is just my personal opinion,I have arrived at. And then deal with the aftermath of that.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 21:34:51

Ibon wrote:I declare that Pstarr has won this debate for now..... maybe this will change in the next five years but for now climate change is mostly a distraction.

No! It's your Kudzu Ape, the Overshoot Predator that won this debate. At least style-wise. He is much more poetic than my bad humor lol
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby GHung » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 22:08:23

Climate change is a minor environmental threat, a media distraction??

Sorry. I can't put ocean acidification and coral reef bleaching on that shelf, especially considering decades of overfishing and how many humans rely on the seas as their primary protein source. Indeed, we are putting all of our critical ecosystems into over-exploitation stress at the same time they are increasingly undergoing climate stress, and I doubt the consequences will be non-synergistic. Consequences are likely to be greater than the sum of the stress factors.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 00:44:31

pstarr wrote:Our obsession with climate change gives folks a break. It's a gift. Most folks who (claim to) worry about it really believes we have 50 years of grace
...
Few know or care that peak oil is playing now.


These key statements very clearly explain why it is you want to marginalize AGW. It's all wrapped up in a sense that it's stealing mindshare away from peak-oil, your most favored doom. This is not me strawmanning. This is exactly what you're telling us. You're not shying away from it. It's right there. It's not about the science. It's about emotion (your personal frustration that you cannot control what people talk about).

Listen, Pstarr, why is it that you can concede to other dooms, like the population bomb or soil depletion or fresh water without downplaying them? The only difference is that there's more press coverage of AGW than these others (especially population which we all know is a third-rail topic).

It's brazenly anti-intellectual to go about trying to debunk or discredit science just because you don't like the fact people are talking about it more than some adjacent topic.

How popular the topic is should have nothing to do with whether the science is real or not.

Really, this is bias personified. I have a hard time believing that you truly are an AGW denier at your core. I don't think even you are that dumb. I think you are sort of shaping your rhetoric purely for a given effect, even if you have to be intellectually dishonest with yourself to do it. It's sort of the approach of a flip-flopping propagandist who will contradict himself if necessary to gain the desired effect in influencing public opinion one way or another.

If you've always behaved this way it would explain why the public shunned you during your activist days. Being an agent provocateur with no underlying personal integrity is not that different from being a troll.

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 05:35:06

Plantagenet wrote:
Ibon wrote:
pstarr wrote:Climate change is a minor environmental threat, a media distraction


I have to respectfully disagree. Climate change is causing sea level rise that is already impacting coastal cities, as well as creating droughts and killer heat waves. What will happen as we see 10-15 feet of sea level rise and much hotter temperatures?

Image
Cheers!


The image of a flooded metropolis targets humanity. The salt marsh or mangrove bay just outside of metropolitan areas simply shift and extend inland with the rising sea level having minimal impact. Here again we see how climate change disproportionately affects kudzu apes. It is a major environmental threat to humanity.. Less of a threat to the complexity of natural ecosystems with some exceptions like coral reefs.

If climate change rises sea levels, displaces humans, curtails agriculture production in marginal areas etc. we will witness the beginning of the depopulation of our species on the planet. What happens when human landscapes and our crop land and pastureland recede? Nature recolonizes quickly this former human habitat.

The media attention of climate change has everything to do with how it will potentially imperil homo sapiens. Which it will disproportionately. There is something profoundly disingenuous when you see the media discuss climate change as imperiling our planet. What the media is really indirectly telling you, what many folks are actually indirectly stating is that climate change is a potential threat to our rapacious parasitic dominance on our mother earth. If climate change will weaken kudzu apes dominant position on the planet then we have to consider that from the perspective of the rest of life on the planet this may not be a bad deal.

You couple this with peak oil and all the other feedbacks, what Ghung refers to as a thousand cuts, and then you slowly recognize that those thousand cuts, those incisions, those blades of consequences, are targeting one species in particular. Unfortunately collateral damage in the rise of extinctions of other species cannot be avoided but the status of critically endangered species is not a future threat but an already profound reality largely ignored by the media. And it has nothing to do with climate change. Ever wonder at this glaring difference between the media's attention on climate change as a mere threat when the already devastating loss of biodiversity barely raises an eyebrow any more? Could it have something to do perhaps with the fact that climate change will disproportionately affect one species in particular? Which leads to the question that deserves highlighting

Could one then conclude that concern of climate change is simply the extension of the hubris that sees our place on the planet and our current life styles as sacrosanct? If you have the courage to recognize this then you have to conclude that concern for climate change is double speak for not wanting to alter in any way kudzu apes rapacious dominance on the planet.

Now that it is upon us let us take a moment to appreciate and embrace climate change as one of the corrective measures to lessen the lethal parasitic grip one species, homo sapiens, has on our mother earth. Let us embrace climate change as the ultimate change in the trajectory of our species away from severe overshoot and moving toward correction.

Many will read these words and interpret misanthropic sentiments. This could not be further from the truth. The collapse of the linear trend of 200 years of exponential growth of kudzu apes on the planet is exactly what will long term save our species, increase our species resiliency, and enable kudzu apes to redefine ourselves away from being a rogue parasite and once again become and integrated member of the community of life on our mother earth. That means that 75% of our numbers will disappear in the next couple of generations. For me the harrowing reality of what this means is equally balanced with the healing that will take place as flora and fauna will reclaim stolen habitat.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 07:05:48

Further to my last post there is quite an eloquent way to understand human overshoot when you consider that the last 200 years can be regarded as the Great Biotic Exchange. This occurred when the biomass of natural ecosystems was exchanged for the biomass of humans and their slave species; livestock and crops that feed us. The sum total of biomass remains pretty much constant but human agency simply replaced the rich tapestry of biodiversity around the planet with more mono culture humans and more of our mono culture slave crops and livestock.

Forces that disproportionately target Homo sapiens will slow down, brake and swing the pendulum of this Great Biotic Exchange back in the other direction. This represents the correction of human overshoot.

My hypothesis is that climate change will be a contributing force to slow down this Great Biotic Exchange and start to reverse it.

This Great Biotic Exchange is nearing its apex. It's peak so to speak. Peak Kudzu Ape is upon us.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 07:46:38

It is truly so intriguing to have the perspective that Ibon has in that he is seeing this epic period in the history of humanity from the lens of all life not just our species. One can take this view to say we are no more deserving of continuing than any other species. Can we forgo our parasitic dominance for the sake of a rich healthy planet that most of us inherited when we were born but in the brief time of our lives have managed to degrade and make less prolific via the extinction process. Because for every Ibon they"'re are at least 1000 persons who don't seem to value, nature, other species or even our own very much. They are just concerned with themselves and their immediate progeny. Or am I wrong about that. No we will not voluntarily do it but I do believe the natural course of events will knock us off the high self made perch we created
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 09:40:56

Overshoot underlies all our problems.

Humanities inability to project and plan accordingly renders us paralyzed.

We can argue all day about exactly how we are going down, but the underlying issues never change, short of meteor hit or Yellowstone blowing.

I believe that underlying truth is something we all broadly agree in.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 10:54:36

onlooker wrote:It is truly so intriguing to have the perspective that Ibon has in that he is seeing this epic period in the history of humanity from the lens of all life not just our species. One can take this view to say we are no more deserving of continuing than any other species. Can we forgo our parasitic dominance for the sake of a rich healthy planet that most of us inherited when we were born but in the brief time of our lives have managed to degrade and make less prolific via the extinction process. Because for every Ibon they"'re are at least 1000 persons who don't seem to value, nature, other species or even our own very much. They are just concerned with themselves and their immediate progeny. Or am I wrong about that. No we will not voluntarily do it but I do believe the natural course of events will knock us off the high self made perch we created

Ibon posts are truly epic, in the sense that he sees the grand sweep of ecology and our tragically short reign. No grand intersteller empire for us :cry:

Ibon also reminded me of a conversation I had with Kaiser Jeep quite a while ago, during the California Drought. He was all for draining the Sacramento River for agriculture, environmental laws be damned. In particular he pointed to the need to remove protection for a fish. I pointed out that the delta smelt was an 'indicator species' a marker for general environmental health. It's extinction means nothing in itself. But for us it would be tragic . . . and not for romantic reasons. It's demise indicates the conditions for its survival are lost. The same conditions we depend on for clean algae-toxin free water.

The minuscule delta smelt, a silvery-blue fish that smells like cucumbers, took on outsize importance this weekend when Donald Trump speculated that it may be responsible for drought-stricken Fresno, California’s water woes. The three-inch fish, found only in the San Francisco ...
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 14:17:03

Ib wrote:

"Forces that disproportionately target Homo sapiens will slow down, brake and swing the pendulum of this Great Biotic Exchange back in the other direction. This represents the correction of human overshoot. "

Indeed, it is important to note that human flesh, and that of our livestock..., are the largest pools of uniform food on the planet now by far. The species that most effectively evolve to take advantage of these food sources will win, particularly after collapse makes institutions like CDC inoperable.

This is another thing that people who are absolutely sure that some enclave of humans somewhere will somehow manage to survive...maybe they will, but they will be faced with multiple and populous species specialized in eating their bodies, and the bodies of their support animals and plants.

Oh, and it's nice to see pete make an actually valuable contribution to one of the threads on this forum for once. I hope that's a trend that continues. :)
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 15:02:02

dohboi wrote:Ib wrote:

"Forces that disproportionately target Homo sapiens will slow down, brake and swing the pendulum of this Great Biotic Exchange back in the other direction. This represents the correction of human overshoot. "

Indeed, it is important to note that human flesh, and that of our livestock..., are the largest pools of uniform food on the planet now by far. The species that most effectively evolve to take advantage of these food sources will win, particularly after collapse makes institutions like CDC inoperable.

This is another thing that people who are absolutely sure that some enclave of humans somewhere will somehow manage to survive...maybe they will, but they will be faced with multiple and populous species specialized in eating their bodies, and the bodies of their support animals and plants.

Oh, and it's nice to see pete make an actually valuable contribution to one of the threads on this forum for once. I hope that's a trend that continues. :)

Actually my so-called 'valuable contribution' happens to be off-topic, it's only relevance to describe how ecologic systems are way more complex and robust than climate physicists might comprehend. I still think so-called climate chaos (aka runaway global-moaning ) is b#llshit, a meme for attention-starved vegans and drama-queens. But thanks anyway :)

And I really like your doomsday-carnivore-eat-the-humans thing. But we don't need any specially evolved post-doom species to accomplish it though. Garden variety wolves, bears, dogs, pumas (and even wolverines) will take care of recycling us. Every country has something or somebody who wants our carcasses.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 16:12:01

I was thinking more on the microbial side of things, but yeah, there are plenty of those around as well.

http://www.newsweek.com/buruli-ulcer-au ... -us-669684
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 25 Sep 2017, 15:44:36

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No comment...... :!:
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 25 Sep 2017, 16:24:36

M_B_S wrote:Image

No comment...... :!:


It's waaaay cooler on the west coast. :)
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 25 Sep 2017, 19:23:49

Yep. This is the new normal. PStarr will keep denying as is his wont.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 25 Sep 2017, 23:28:46

asg70 wrote:Yep. This is the new normal. PStarr will keep denying as is his wont.

Quit your damn complaining. While you type away in you air conditioned suburban box, i sit cool calm and collected out here in the cool coastal california fog.

Moved here to get away from the hea. And whiny eastcoast yabbers . . . like yourself.

We're mellow lol
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 27 Sep 2017, 04:38:22

Its much colder here in Germany than @ US east coast...

Maybe Europe has a problem with its heat pump:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace ... cc75b7f6f4

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