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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 24 Aug 2017, 14:49:20

Thanks for the clarification, T.

I generally do give more context and a link, but I don't have a subscription to the nyt either. I assumed they still have the rule that you can look at three articles per month and I was hoping someone else hadn't used theirs up already so could post more on it. Did they change to subscription only now, though?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby chilyb » Fri 25 Aug 2017, 06:36:42

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... awing.html

Even in colder northern Alaska, where permafrost in some parts of the North Slope extends more than 2,100 feet below the surface, scientists are seeing stark changes. Vladimir E. Romanovsky, a permafrost researcher at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, said that temperatures at a depth of 65 feet have risen by 3 degrees Celsius (about 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit) over decades.

Near-surface changes have been even greater. At one northern site, he said, permafrost temperatures at shallow depths have climbed from minus 8 degrees Celsius to minus 3.

“Minus 3 is not that far from zero,” Dr. Romanovsky said. If emissions and warming continue at the same rate, he said, near-surface temperatures will rise above freezing around the middle of the century.


There is plenty of debate among scientists about when and how much of Alaska’s permafrost will thaw. And there is no doubt that thawing of the full depth of permafrost would take millenniums.

But Dr. Romanovsky said that his and others’ work shows that permafrost “is not as stable as people thought.”
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 09:29:03

Cold Region Tipping Point Now Inevitable

The decline of cold regions called periglacial zones is now inevitable due to climate change, researchers say.

Periglacial zones, where there is often a layer of frozen ground known as permafrost, make up about a quarter of the Earth's land surface and are mostly found in the far north and south, and at high altitudes.

Scientists from the universities of Exeter and Helsinki and the Finnish Meteorological Institute examined natural processes caused by frost and snow which take place in these zones.
"Unfortunately, it seems that many of the frost-driven processes we studied are already at the margin of the climate in which they can exist."

Their findings suggest that – even with optimistic estimates of future carbon emissions – areas covered by periglacial zones will reduce dramatically by 2050, and they will "almost disappear" by 2100.

This would have a major impact on landscapes and biodiversity, and could trigger climate "feedbacks" – processes that can amplify or diminish the effects of climate change.

"The results suggest that profound changes can be expected in current periglacial zones regardless of climate change mitigation policies," said Dr Juha Aalto, of the University of Helsinki and the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

"Our results forecast a future tipping point in the operation of these processes, and predict fundamental changes in ground conditions and related atmospheric feedbacks," Dr Aalto added.

Even based on the optimistic RCP2.6 estimate for future carbon emissions, the researchers predict a 72% reduction in the current periglacial zone in the area of northern Europe they studied. By 2100, periglacial zones in will only exist in high mountain regions, they say.

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The predicted loss of conditions allowing cryogenic land surface processes. a, b The suitable overlapping conditions for the land surface processes (LSP) under baseline (i.e., current climate of 1981–2010) and future climate (2040–2069 RCP 4.5), respectively, while c shows the area covered by suitable climate for individual LSP at each time period and climate change scenario.

Juha Aalto et al. Statistical modelling predicts almost complete loss of major periglacial processes in Northern Europe by 2100, Nature Communications (2017).
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 13:03:51

vox_mundi wrote:
Even based on the optimistic RCP2.6 estimate for future carbon emissions, the researchers predict a 72% reduction in the current periglacial zone in the area of northern Europe they studied. By 2100, periglacial zones in will only exist in high mountain regions, they say.

Image
The predicted loss of conditions allowing cryogenic land surface processes. a, b The suitable overlapping conditions for the land surface processes (LSP) under baseline (i.e., current climate of 1981–2010) and future climate (2040–2069 RCP 4.5), respectively, while c shows the area covered by suitable climate for individual LSP at each time period and climate change scenario.

Juha Aalto et al. Statistical modelling predicts almost complete loss of major periglacial processes in Northern Europe by 2100, Nature Communications (2017).


None of the models used to predict future warming include the massive carbon and methane releases from the thawing permafrost.

When you include this feedback effect, the amount of warming we will see by 2100 goes right off the charts.

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dissident » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 16:18:12

The IPCC models also do not include ocean biochemistry feedbacks. So global emissions of CH4 from increasingly anoxic ocean regions are totally ignored. The scale of these emissions is not trivial and will progressively dominate the warming process. Thousands of years of ocean anoxia and most of the tropics too hot for humans to inhabit is the looming nightmare.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Sys1 » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 06:49:08

What puzzles me is that I suppose some kind of negative feedback exists in nature in order to prevent any runaway global warming, at least as long as the atmosphere variation is not too important.
Nevertheless, what we call civilisation is not a feedback beside for itself, but a machine that puts more and more and at an accelerated rate CO2 in the atmosphere, meaning that any natural negative feedback won't be able to stop our madness.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 13:51:32

Sys1 wrote:What puzzles me is that I suppose some kind of negative feedback exists in nature in order to prevent any runaway global warming, at least as long as the atmosphere variation is not too important.


Exactly right. Put excess CO2 in the air and the oceans and plants absorb most of it, reducing the effect. The problem is we've saturated those reservoirs.



Sys1 wrote: civilisation is ... a machine that puts more and more and at an accelerated rate CO2 in the atmosphere, meaning that any natural negative feedback won't be able to stop our madness.


Exactly right. The planet won't fix itself. We have to do it----but so far all we've done is pretend that sham climate treaties like the Kyoto Accords and the Paris Accords will fix things---but they won't.

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 14:10:13

From my understanding and perhaps others can correct me, the more CO2 you put into the atmosphere the more this greenhouse effect will override or cancel out the negative feedback mechanisms. Also, I think the methane blowholes and Arctic permafrost melting is setting up a very potent positive feedback loop with methane given that it is such a potent greenhouse gas.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 17:29:26

I look at it this way. There are two overriding principles at play:

1. The Anthropic Principle
2. Murphy's Law

We're here, so there is definitely negative feedback that has kept the system stable for us.

However, muck it up and anything goes, that's Murphy's Law in play.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 18:41:55

C02-fertilization negative feedback dynamic has been roundly ignored by the mass media and climate change community. That is literally a crime, as per the cost of intended/potential/possible GW government mandate. It should be part of the discussion.

The assumed positive feedback dynamic effects, ie albedo loss, permafrost methane release, and the rest are only one side of the coin. Not the only one. We have no idea how much CO2 has already been taken out of the atmosphere by extraordinary plant growth . . . on the land. (Though we are certain it occurred on a momentous scale . . . 17% more coverage on the earth by new plant growth since 1983, or so. See the Nature journal article I have repeatedly posted).

We have not yet considered additional CO2 uptake/plant growth in the seas/lakes by algae and pelagic plants. (Which is probably orders of magnitude more.) We have not considered future uptake. That negative feedback effect could be greater than already known. Greater than the positive climate change forcings.

We don't know. But is is ignorance and hubris to ignore these questions, to assume that forcings are only in one direction. And plays into a certain doomer mindset that is prevalent here at PO.com
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 22:28:12

jed wrote: "We're here..."

And, one might add, 'It's here':

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... a-droughts
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 12:05:14

New Climate Risk Classification Created To Account for Potential 'Existential' Threats

Image

A new study evaluating models of future climate scenarios has led to the creation of the new risk categories "catastrophic" and "unknown" to characterize the range of threats posed by rapid global warming. Researchers propose that unknown risks imply existential threats to the survival of humanity.

These categories describe two low-probability but statistically significant scenarios that could play out by century's end, in a new study by Veerabhadran Ramanathan, a distinguished professor of climate and atmospheric sciences at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego, and his former Scripps graduate student Yangyang Xu, now an assistant professor at Texas A&M University.

The risk assessment stems from the objective stated in the 2015 Paris Agreement regarding climate change that society keep average global temperatures "well below" a 2°C (3.6°F) increase from what they were before the Industrial Revolution.

Even if that objective is met, a global temperature increase of 1.5°C (2.7°F) is still categorized as "dangerous," meaning it could create substantial damage to human and natural systems. A temperature increase greater than 3°C (5.4°F) could lead to what the researchers term "catastrophic" effects, and an increase greater than 5°C (9°F) could lead to "unknown" consequences which they describe as beyond catastrophic including potentially existential threats. The specter of existential threats is raised to reflect the grave risks to human health and species extinction from warming beyond 5° C, which has not been experienced for at least the past 20 million years.

Yangyang Xu et al. Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2017)

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 12:17:48

In 2006 Al Gore said that "we have ten years to avoid a major catastrophe that could send our entire climate's system into a tail spin of epic destruction extreme weather floods, droughts epidemics and killer heat waves beyond anything we have ever experienced - a catastrophe of our own making."

Yet here is it in 2017, the Great California Drought is over, and my little orchard just gifted me with 3 gallons of gorgeous sweet apple juice, which I froze and put up in my new chest freezer. I will enjoy the bounty this coming winter, predicted to be another in a long eons-old state of happy normalcy.

So much for the hysteria. We should take such predictions of doom with a grain of salt.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 13:09:47

I wonder if it has to do with the idea of reaching a point of no return.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 13:17:15

ralfy wrote:I wonder if it has to do with the idea of reaching a point of no return.

So if this is truly the point of no reason, then i welcome it. Feels good to be a recovered climate doomer :) Give it a try ralfy.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 13:37:00

Pete; you're apparently unclear on the concept of climate inertia among other things (... or just willfully ignorant)

Postponing meaningful mitigation action until the shit hits the fan comes with considerable risk, because many changes in climate are not reversible on human timescales. Once you notice the trouble, it’s only the beginning, because of the inertia in the various systems (energy system, carbon cycle and climate system). The conundrum is thus that those who caused the problem are in the best position to solve it, but since the full consequences will not materialize until much later, they have the least incentive to do so.

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https://www.climateinteractive.org/tool ... entum-sim/

... In 2006, globally averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere reached … 381.2 parts per million (ppm) ... carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere reached 412.63 ppm on Arpil 26, 2017

In the 10 years since Gore spoke CO2 has gone up over 30 ppm. That, by itself, locked us into an additional 0.3 C that won't go away any time soon; and an additional 950 new Coal fired Power Plants and 200 Million ICE cars and trucks have been added to the planet.

You're misinterpretation of global greening/C02-fertilization negative feedback dynamic isn't going to change that. Keep wearing those rose colored glasses
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pstarr wrote:... So if this is truly the point of no reason, then i welcome it. Feels good to be a recovered climate doomer :)

I think pete's gone rockhound on us

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 13:42:23

Pete; you're apparently unclear on the concept of climate inertia among other things (... or just willfully ignorant)

Postponing meaningful mitigation action until the shit hits the fan comes with considerable risk, because many changes in climate are not reversible on human timescales.

Global Greening has its own inertia, a negative feedback loop.

So Vox, the fan-shit hitting event is hardly in the ballpark. It's more or less a bunt lol
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 14:49:30

vox, thanks for the links and commentary.

I do think the first graph is still a bit optimistic, since we are already seeing many consequences that should be catergorized as dangerous, even at about 1 degree C.

(And I recommend just ignoring the trolls, which sadly pete has now become.)
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 15:11:20

I am afraid pessimistic has become the new realistic when it comes to climate change. From below linked article:

19 ways climate change is now feeding itself


http://transitionvoice.com/2013/08/19-w ... ng-itself/
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 15:21:34

pstarr wrote:In 2006 Al Gore said that "we have ten years to avoid a major catastrophe that could send our entire climate's system into a tail spin of epic destruction extreme weather floods, droughts epidemics and killer heat waves beyond anything we have ever experienced - a catastrophe of our own making."

Yet here is it in 2017, the Great California Drought is over, and my little orchard just gifted me with 3 gallons of gorgeous sweet apple juice, which I froze and put up in my new chest freezer. I will enjoy the bounty this coming winter, predicted to be another in a long eons-old state of happy normalcy.

So much for the hysteria. We should take such predictions of doom with a grain of salt.


Enjoy your apples will you can get 'em.

Gore was prophetic? I didn't know. Yeah, California burning up and the floods all over. Next, you will comment on Guy McPherson, I suppose. Well, please don't!
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