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Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 11:02:47

Not that it's really important but it just hit me that the screen name "shortonoil" seems a bit off on its timing given that less than a year ago the world was producing more oil then every before in history.


They were trying to make up for the 53% decline in price over the last three years. Everyone is pumping every barrel that they can produce. When the price goes down by half it takes twice as much product to generate the same amount of revenue. It certainly makes one wonder how many producers must now be over pumping their fields to stay alive, and how many billions of barrels will ultimately be lost forever as a result. The end game will not be played with the same set of rules that have been used in the past. When day to day survival becomes the issue what will happen tomorrow suddenly does not seem very important.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby Cog » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 11:30:05

Why do you possibly think that the price of oil is going down from where it is?
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 12:50:14

ROCKMAN wrote:Not that it's really important but it just hit me that the screen name "shortonoil" seems a bit off on its timing given that less than a year ago the world was producing more oil then every before in history.

Just a mild chuckle to start the well off. LOL.

But the American consumer is starved for essential energy, doesn't see half the oil produced. It's burned up and wasted down 10,000-ft boreholes, 100-car oil trains, gigantic offshore platforms, endless tar-sand monster truck miles, 1,000 mile pipelines.

So new home starts (the bulwark of our economy) are at a record low. It also is massively dependent on oil energy. It competes with oil production . . . for oil . . . and for the steel and cement. So too . . . the easy wood (like oil) is gone. The low-hanging fruit has been gobbled up. We must manufacture OSB with . . . more oil. More oil to deliver it all. We can sleep outside but we must have our oil, it feeds us. We become parasitized by the oil business. It's draining out that life blood.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 13:06:42

Why do you possibly think that the price of oil is going down from where it is?


Because that is what it did at $100, 90, 80, 70, 60, 50: See a pattern yet?

As oil loses its ability to power economic activity, its value goes down. It is the same reason why at 70 years old you can't run as fast as you did at 20. It is one of those annoying and inevitable facts of life. Everything degrades with time, and that includes you, and oil's value to the economy .

If you were planning on living forever; you sure have a surprise coming!
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 13:55:15

shortonoil wrote:
Not that it's really important but it just hit me that the screen name "shortonoil" seems a bit off on its timing given that less than a year ago the world was producing more oil then every before in history.


They were trying to make up for the 53% decline in price over the last three years.


You obviously know nothing about even the most basic principles of reservoir dynamics or management. Can I recommend some actual experts that I met at a modeling conference that have you beat not only on modeling but reservoir dynamics and management? Of course, they were real live petroleum engineering types, and when I began telling them what people in Vienna VA know about oil and how they use regression equations to sell reports to gullible folks, I managed to generate more than a little uproarious laughter.

So your report and equations made a pretty good ice breaker in the respect of being a wonderful joke to those who do this for a living.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 13:58:01

Cog wrote:Why do you possibly think that the price of oil is going down from where it is?


It is what the regression equation he built (which he himself says can't predict anything) says.

For those who model for a living, they are already laughing their heads off at the idea. For the gullible, we'll just have to wait until price goes back up, and then the slow learners can do the same thing. And Short will make up something else perhaps, a n-th polynomial perhaps? :lol:
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 14:01:23

pstarr wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:Not that it's really important but it just hit me that the screen name "shortonoil" seems a bit off on its timing given that less than a year ago the world was producing more oil then every before in history.

Just a mild chuckle to start the well off. LOL.

But the American consumer is starved for essential energy, doesn't see half the oil produced.


Please reference any example where the American consumer can't buy as much natural gas, crude oil, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel or kerosene that they can afford.

That isn't starved for energy, that is the ability to buy as much as they'd like, JUST LIKE YOU.

And better yet, we can all do this now at real prices reminiscent of the early 1970's, and this only applies to people like you who can't be bothered to move on to other fuels to power your transport. Not a surprise, there isn't anything near as much in saving the planet as being a spectator at forest clear cutting events, or happily celebrating the death of sea mammals.

How boring....not emitting CO2..where is the fun in that! Someone give me a Budweiser!
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 14:05:04

shortonoil wrote:
Why do you possibly think that the price of oil is going down from where it is?


Because that is what it did at $100, 90, 80, 70, 60, 50: See a pattern yet?


And as you have pointed out at this website, regression of that trend and extrapolating it is meaningless. Oh wait! That was BEFORE you wanted to sell it! Silly me, don't let reality get in the way of your carnival barking.

How about you apply the same (non) thinking to the price going up back when peak oil happened?

And then explain why using your trend extrapolation didn't allow Simmons to win his price bet?
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 14:19:27

pstarr wrote:So new home starts (the bulwark of our economy) are at a record low. It also is massively dependent on oil energy. It competes with oil production . . .


Once perma-doomers get started on a rant (you can always tell by the ellipses) they just can't stop. They're like wind-up dolls or Beavis when he drinks too much coffee.

Image

Back in the real-world, BAU continues apace whether you like it or not.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 15:23:12

Once perma-doomers get started on a rant (you can always tell by the ellipses) they just can't stop.


Once pig Latin speaking troglodytes start posting stupid pictures that don't mean anything to anyone, they can't stop.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 15:26:55

shortonoil wrote:
Once perma-doomers get started on a rant (you can always tell by the ellipses) they just can't stop.


Once pig Latin speaking troglodytes start posting stupid pictures that don't mean anything to anyone, they can't stop.

It's an idiot tactic to push other intelligent posts off the page.

The idiots all pay lip service to global warming but should consider their own contribution. A simple graphic (as opposed to text) uses several orders-of-magnitude more server and network load . . . thus CO2 emmissions. Hypocrites all.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 15:30:50

pstarr wrote:It's an idiot tactic to push other intelligent posts off the page.


You're free to go start your own monolithic cult (I mean forum) if you can't abide dissent.

pstarr wrote:Hypocrites all.


Oh, really? Where's your EV?
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 15:39:39

So you have an EV? That's great. Hope it works for you.

I would be glad to discuss appropriate technology, my personal/family ecological footprint and professional credibility in the appropriate thread.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 15:51:03

And as you have pointed out at this website, regression of that trend and extrapolating it is meaningless.


So what you are saying is that you don't see a pattern in those numbers!

Not very bright are we?

To be more explicit the price of oil has to go down because of the accumulation of entropy in the petroleum production system. Entropy is the reason that an iron bolt left in the weather will always rust, but never un-rust. It is the reason that a boulder will always roll down hill, but never up. It is a fundamental property of matter that affects all processes, including oil production. It is measurable and calculative. It tells us what the "state" of the petroleum production system is at any point in time.

Of course for someone who can not determine whether six numbers are getting bigger or smaller that may be a little overwhelming. Pickup Sticks would probably be better suited to your skill level.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 16:12:07

You're free to go start your own monolithic cult (I mean forum) if you can't abide dissent.


So now a stupid picture is a form of dissent? Well thank you, we all thought that it was just a stupid picture probably posted by a stupid person. Stupid persons have a tendency to do things like that, it is one way of determining if they are stupid. Of course in this case it must presumed that we have identified Einstein’s lost brother.

Some DNA testing could confirm it; of course your nearest living relative may also turn out to be a salamander.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby dashster » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 16:23:06

Not that it's really important but it just hit me that the screen name "shortonoil" seems a bit off on its timing given that less than a year ago the world was producing more oil then every before in history.


To me, "shortonoil" implies a decline in price, not a shortage of oil. At least in the stock market, when you are short on something, you expect prices to fall.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 16:25:28

shortonoil wrote:
And as you have pointed out at this website, regression of that trend and extrapolating it is meaningless.


So what you are saying is that you don't see a pattern in those numbers!

Not very bright are we?
. . .
Of course for someone who can not determine whether six numbers are getting bigger or smaller that may be a little overwhelming. Pickup Sticks would probably be better suited to your skill level.

You crack me up :-D But perhaps they really don't get it? I know, hard to believe :shock: So I have a analogy I call upon when working with 'special' children. It's a metaphor for collapsing net energy:
    you are lost in the desert and find an oasis. There must be water under the dry sand, so you dig and sweat and sweat some more, but the sand keeps collapsing . . . just as you see a few drops of the precious liquid. Do you dig frantically or enjoy your last minutes gazing at the distant palms and thinking beautiful thoughts?
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 17:17:34

To me, "shortonoil" implies a decline in price


Thanks for a flicker of intelligence, and a moment of sanity.

Both of which are hard to find in a place were so many still want to believe in perpetual motion machines, and Santa Clause.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 17:36:55

shortonoil wrote:
To me, "shortonoil" implies a decline in price


Thanks for a flicker of intelligence, and a moment of sanity.

Both of which are hard to find in a place were so many still want to believe in perpetual motion machines, and Santa Clause.

Says the self proclaimed expert who can't spell "Santa Claus".

But please, keep telling us how much more intelligent you are than those you are arguing with, who deal with real world realities like economics, or actual facts and figures (without major distortion) about oil production and reserves.

Have you ever considered a career in comedy?
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 18:27:13

shortonoil wrote:Stupid persons have a tendency to do things like that


No, stupid is when you can't admit to being wrong. Adam keeps dredging up your flip-flop from 10+ years ago and you not having the humility to admit having changed your views 180' is part and parcel of why people have a hard time believing your doomerism is anything but a feather in the wind.

In other words, high oil price = doom. Low oil price = doom.

If the reason you constructed ETP was to keep the idea of doom alive during an indefinite regime of low oil prices, then it paints a portrait of deep-seated bias. Start with a conclusion (doom) and try to build a narrative that just so conveniently revolves around the current situation. Situation changes, brush it under the rug and construct a new one.

shortonoil wrote:Some DNA testing could confirm it; of course your nearest living relative may also turn out to be a salamander.


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