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The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 06:34:07

Re: NY Mag: Good accessible review.

On a minor note I think he under states the danger of financial issues. His analysis is interesting but seems to miss the complexity risks. Can the financial system sustain itself in the face of negative GDP for more than a few years? What happens if/when the current financial system starts to unwind. Will it be slow and orderly or a sudden phffft?

More interestingly is to read this article while observing yourself as a movie critic watching a 1950ish B grade horror movie. The brilliant young researcher realizes the horror about to be unleashed and, like Cassandra, spreads the news.

How many thousands of people, like you and I, have read that article? Individually we understand the threat. But is the cure any less terrifying? We have no mechanisim for coping with this dilemma and making a rational decision. We are deer in the headlights of truth.

In this fairly nice summary of portending catastrophes he omits over population as both a cause and a force multiplier. Is that a forbidden subject, an over sight, or some denial of the truth by the author?

I have no answers.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 09:08:40

onlooker wrote:Well this seems like best thread to deposit this quite pessimistic
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... umans.html


Nice doomer porn that A) disproves the notion that the MSM doesn't cover doom and B) that AGW is a more serious doom than peak-oil.

The omission of overpopulation as a root-cause is par for the course. I have read plenty of MSM articles on population over the years, but they're the exception and not the rule.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 10:19:18

These small incremental steps move us ever closer to when the flood gates open and our global society stares straight over the precipice of over population, climate change, resource constraints. Sprinkle a few consequences and there we are.

And then what?
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 10:22:36

Musical chairs to the death!

8O :-D
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 11:32:10

Newfie wrote:Musical chairs to the death!

8O :-D


Then the really interesting things happen which makes us humans. But don't hold your breath or you will turn blue.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 14:02:28

Newf wrote: "How many thousands of people, like you and I, have read that article? "

The comment section for the article itself has nearly 1000 remarks, and it seem to be widely shared and commented on in social media, so I'm guessing it is quite a few more than just a few thousand.

"We have no mechanism..."

I may be misunderstanding your intent here, but 'we' do have some mechanism for 'coping,' however horribly flawed it may seem...Paris Accords. If they could have been strengthened and built on, and say a President Bernie Sanders and perhaps a few other somewhat enlightened world leaders had arisen and showed some true leadership, and pointed the way toward rapidly crashing carbon emissions while protecting many/most of the most vulnerable...

OK, we probably still wouldn't be able to avoid 2 C increase, but perhaps shaved a bit off of the very worst of the horrors that now pretty inevitably face us. But that's not quite how it went down, was it.

I hope more and more major publications lay out these worst case scenarios. I think a majority of the country is realizing that not wanting to consider or imagine the (for them) political 'worst case scenario' of a Trump presidency is helping them to realize that hiding under the bed doesn't make the boogie men go away. So they may now be willing to stare into the face of other horrors that are now upon us.

Consider this recent advice from Eric Holthaus:

My advice for climate journalists going forward:

1. Don't hold back. Readers can take it. (As long as it's rigorously grounded in the science, of course.)
2. The weird shit that climate change could cause—the tail risks, the megastorms, the blinking out of entire ecosystems—is compelling.
3. Climate journalists should find those stories—things scientists wouldn't bother with b/c they're unlikely—& report the hell out of them.
4. AND THEN (this is the most important part) you plant the seed of possibility at the end & invite the reader to become part of the story.

Because that's the reality: We are all part of this story. This is our story, we are shaping it every day.

http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholt ... -july-17th
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 14:33:18

dohboi wrote: 'we' do have some mechanism for 'coping,' however horribly flawed it may seem...Paris Accords. If they could have been strengthened and built on, and say a President Bernie Sanders and perhaps a few other somewhat enlightened world leaders had arisen and showed some true leadership, and pointed the way toward rapidly crashing carbon emissions while protecting many/most of the most vulnerable...


?????

The Paris Accords actually approve INCREASES in global CO2 emissions. There are essentially NO restrictions on increasing CO2 emissions from countries like China and India.

Thats disasterous------the Paris Accords call for ever increasing CO2 emissions. That is the exact opposite of what we need.

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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 15:54:25

"we have no mechanism for coping...."

"we" is you and I and all the rest. These are things that need to be absorbed individually, within our personal emotional state.

We have religion to help us cope with our personal death and the death of loved ones. This doesn't extend to the death of humanity, in total or large parts there of, no matter if we act to reduce the carnage or not. That's new to us, individually.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 18:14:30

Newfie wrote: This doesn't extend to the death of humanity, in total or large parts there of, no matter if we act to reduce the carnage or not. That's new to us, individually.


It is new to us collectively as well. We have had several generations of the same trend, extract resources, grow, increase resiliency, make leaps and bounds of technological progress. Systemic growth on all fronts; population, technology, standard of living, longevity, consumption, etc. etc. All we have collectively known for multiple generations is genuine growth.

This is now peaking and contraction will follow. When overshoot is being corrected there is this decoupling from resiliency and growth. During the correction it is contraction that builds resiliency. It is depopulation that builds resiliency. These associations are unfamiliar and will
have to be culturally assimilated. It will get even harder. Conflict, war, social chaos, famine, disease also help to build resiliency. This wont be easy except that cultural values will start to shift to accommodate these unfamiliar associations.

Just consider that the new normal will be a highly volatile biosphere where sea levels rise, crops fail, increased mortality due to high temperatures. When this becomes normal the culture begins to value something it never valued before, something that it always took for granted..... a stable biosphere, a stable society, a stable climate, This will eclipse the pursuit of individual wealth. Safety and security are powerful values that a culture will prioritize when volatility becomes the new normal. In volatile times, if you are holding a baby in your arms and project on to him or her all your wishes and dreams then stability and security becomes the highest ideal especially if most of his siblings perished before him.

Positive feedbacks will reinforce this as volatility slowly starts to moderate.

I alluded to this several weeks ago on another thread with the following

In overshoot nature is merciful to the species by being merciless to the individuals


The interesting part is that the individuals martyred for the resiliency of the species will perish with humility.

Very very very very very little entitlement will be found among the mind sets of the generations moving through this process.

Less humans but better humans. More noble.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 18:24:27

I will single out Onlooker here for the moment for he often makes the most earnest plea for more compasssion, for more nobility in our dealings with our planet and with eachother.

This nobility is currently in short supply. How could it be otherwise when we are satiated with consumption and entitlements to our individual wants and needs. There is no nobility reinforced in our current set of cultural values. There is indolence and narcissism.

Everything Onlooker you wish for in your fellow man is within us, it is a recessive gene that will one day be expressed, nobility will return in abundance. when we are ravaged by the consequences of human overshoot.

The hell is what we will leave behind. The hell of living indolent meaningless lives chasing crap and never feeling any meaningful joy.

Hail to the Overshoot Predator. The cleansing will soon commence.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 18 Jul 2017, 01:08:46

Nice article in NY Magazine. I think this is healthy to face reality and not live the lie.

I like that the article was mostly comprehensive that the threats are multiple and, for the most part, simultaneous.

The lukewarm optimism at the end is kind of a let down; reality cannot be taken in all at once.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 18 Jul 2017, 10:19:06

jedrider wrote:Nice article in NY Magazine. I think this is healthy to face reality and not live the lie.

I like that the article was mostly comprehensive that the threats are multiple and, for the most part, simultaneous.

The lukewarm optimism at the end is kind of a let down; reality cannot be taken in all at once.


These more realistic articles that don't mince words will become more common as consequences approach the short term time horizon. We can see the difference to just 5 years ago when all these warnings felt and seemed just beyond the mid term. We begin to notice that the time horizon is shortening, the warnings are becoming more sincere since they are moving within the time horizon we are familiar with. Humans fail at systemic mitigation because anything beyond the mid term time horizon of 5-10 years becomes too abstract when comparing this to immediate needs.

Now that the events are closing in articles and studies will increasingly be taken seriously.

This is encouraging, kind of tragic as well, but mostly encouraging for the many of us who have stood by on the sidelines for decades frustrated at the inaction. Soon we move into far more volatile times, both physically in our biosphere and socially in how we respond.

Departing from mediocrity is a reason to celebrate even if this affects your survival and standard of living.

Better to live a noble life cut short then spending 80 years in a domestic cage.

I can only welcome the volatility.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 18 Jul 2017, 11:35:07

...as volatility slowly starts to moderate.


There is nothing whatsoever in the science to support this contention. Volatility will continue to increase well beyond the timeframe of conditions capable of supporting human life on this planet.

What we experienced throughout the Holocene was an aberration, not the norm. One that allowed us to thrive, but is over, never to return.

Neither the paleo-record nor projections based on the various sciences would suggest any such moderation but rather quite the opposite.

Like those poor people in the swimming hole this weekend, mankind is just floating there enjoying the sun in a place of apparent safety, only to instantly be dead, due to an abrupt change to conditions not conducive to survival.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 18 Jul 2017, 12:13:19

Cid_Yama wrote:
...as volatility slowly starts to moderate.


There is nothing whatsoever in the science to support this contention. Volatility will continue to increase well beyond the timeframe of conditions capable of supporting human life on this planet.


The upcoming volatility is a big unknown. At some point CO2 emissions will be radically reduced due to the corrections of human overshoot. At that point how many further generations will still be persevering through highly volatile climate conditions and how soon this will moderate?

100, 500, 1000, 10,000 years?

The answer to that is probably not in the fossil record.

Your suggestion that it will never moderate and that we will be extinct sounds less like science and more like a wrathful god condemning our species to burn with eternal fire for all our naughty behavior!

Do not underestimate our species resiliency nor that of our biosphere to moderate.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 18 Jul 2017, 16:13:35

Ibon wrote:
Cid_Yama wrote: Volatility will continue to increase well beyond the timeframe of conditions capable of supporting human life on this planet.


The upcoming volatility is a big unknown. At some point CO2 emissions will be radically reduced due to the corrections of human overshoot. At that point how many further generations will still be persevering through highly volatile climate conditions and how soon this will moderate?

100, 500, 1000, 10,000 years?

The answer to that is probably not in the fossil record.

Your suggestion that it will never moderate and that we will be extinct sounds less like science and more like a wrathful god condemning our species to burn with eternal fire for all our naughty behavior!


This is a job for atmospheric chemistry!

Methane has very short life in the atmosphere. It is consumed by various chemical reactions and turns into other things, including CO2 in about 11 years. So any transient increases in atmospheric methane, whether caused by human fossil fuel use or by releases from warming permafrost, are completely consumed very quickly, allowing the atmosphere to fall back to a more moderate level of CH4 that is in balance with natural terrestrial methane production.

CO2, in contrast, survives for a longer time in the atmosphere, with estimates ranging from 700-1000 years. This means if human FF use were to stop and human CO2 emissions were to end in about a thousand years the atmosphere would drop back to some moderate level of CO2 concentration that would balance with natural terrestrial CO2 production.

Image

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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 18 Jul 2017, 17:13:48

Plantagenet wrote:
Ibon wrote:


This is a job for atmospheric chemistry!

Methane has very short life in the atmosphere. It is consumed by various chemical reactions and turns into other things, including CO2 in about 11 years. So any transient increases in atmospheric methane, whether caused by human fossil fuel use or by releases from warming permafrost, are completely consumed very quickly, allowing the atmosphere to fall back to a more moderate level of CH4 that is in balance with natural terrestrial methane production.

CO2, in contrast, survives for a longer time in the atmosphere, with estimates ranging from 700-1000 years. This means if human FF use were to stop and human CO2 emissions were to end in about a thousand years the atmosphere would drop back to some moderate level of CO2 concentration that would balance with natural terrestrial CO2 production.

Image

Cheers!


Thanks Plant. We'll see if there are any other comments regarding this. If your info is accurate then we are looking at 10-15 generations of humans living with some degree of volatility with a likelihood of seeing that moderate after 5-6 generations following a drastic reduction in CO2 emissions.

None of us will be around but our progeny might be. Our genetic lineage indicates that at some point in our past as a species we were down to just a few tens of thousands and our gene pool went through a bottleneck and we are all descendants of that bottle neck.

I don't see this as a debate as much as an exploration of likely or less likely scenarios.

There will be vast areas of abandoned human landscapes at some point ahead. Monuments of our hubris that will be preserved for those dozen or so generations that will persevere through these volatile times. Wilderness reclaiming the crumbling glass, cement and steel as some form of human society continues.

Humans carrying on in some not yet imaginable reality, anything from technology preserved to tribal primitive cultures.

We may also go extinct. This is a possibility that needs to be internalized by anyone willing to stare our dilemma squarely in the face.

I think this will be an epic chapter in human history but not the final one. Just my two cents. That we will drop down to a fraction of our current population seems unavoidable and also necessary to build resiliency if our species is to survive.

The other big question here is if we do persevere and survive as a species through this volatility will our culture take any long lasting lessons from this correction? Will we incorporate any sense of reverence and sacredness in how we move about our mother planet having gone through and witnessed the volatility of correction? This remains part of a narrative I do hold on to, this is my own bias, in my own way this may be where I still hold on to some idea of our species progressing or evolving, not in the classic sense in terms of technology and mastery of the material world but more in finding a balance with this power to manipulate our environment and having an ethical and moral set of principals that builds in limits to the extant that we control our physical external world. We will have failed monuments for hundreds of years to remind us of this. And this process is multi -generational. And the volatility we are looking at will be severe, biblical and threatening to our species existence.

It would seem to be the right set of ingredients for some form of long lasting set of principals to become established. This part is existential and therefore falls for me under the category of religion or spiritual well being.

We will pay dearly for our hubris but we need to experience this as a portal to a more enlightened place. I do confess my bias in remaining stubborn to this vision of our species future. I don't see this vision so much as a coping mechanism but rather as a message to mentor to those who will follow.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 18 Jul 2017, 18:12:58

At some point CO2 emissions will be radically reduced due to the corrections of human overshoot. ...and how soon this will moderate?

100, 500, 1000, 10,000 years?



Greenhouse gases will heat up planet 'forever'
Global warming is forever, some of the world's top climate scientists have concluded. Their research shows that carbon dioxide emitted from today's homes, cars and factories will continue to heat up the planet for hundreds of thousands of years.

It comes as a shock because most governments, and even many scientists, have assumed that carbon dioxide emissions would work their way out of the atmosphere in about a century, enabling it to clean itself fairly rapidly once the world switched to clean sources of energy.

But one of the main researchers – Professor David Archer of Chicago University – warns that "the climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, far longer than the age of human civilisation so far. Ultimate recovery takes place on timescales of hundreds of thousands of years, a geologic longevity typically associated in public perceptions with nuclear waste."

Carbon dioxide mainly leaves the atmosphere by being soaked up by the oceans, but Professor Archer says that "the pervasive notion in the climate science community and in the public at large" that this happens relatively quickly is no longer valid. He and other leading scientists spell out why in a paper to be published in the journal Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences.

"The ocean is getting fed up with absorbing our CO2," he says. The surface waters, about 100 metres deep, which used to sop up the gas quite fast, are now getting saturated with it – turning acid in the process – and so decreasing their uptake. They need to be replaced with fresh water from deep down, but this overturning circulation "takes centuries or a millennium". And global warming is expected to slow this down: the hotter the surface layer becomes, the longer the replenishment takes.

Indeed, the forthcoming paper will add, research shows that even this renewing process will not be enough to remove all the vast amounts of carbon dioxide that humanity is now adding to the atmosphere. Much of it will have to wait hundreds of thousands of years before being removed by another, infinitely slower, process: the natural weathering of rocks, which incorporates the gas into other substances. And the more pollution that is emitted now, the worse this will become.

link


Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide
The models presented here give a broadly coherent picture of the fate of fossil fuel CO2 released into the atmosphere. Equilibration with the ocean will absorb most of it on a timescale of 2 to 20 centuries. Even if this equilibration were allowed to run to completion, a substantial fraction of the CO2, 20–40%, would remain in the atmosphere awaiting slower chemical reactions with CaCO3 and igneous rocks. The remaining CO2 is abundant enough to continue to have a substantial impact on climate for thousands of years. The changes in climate amplify themselves somewhat by driving CO2 out of the warmer ocean. The CO2 invasion has acidified the ocean, the pH of which is largely restored by excess dissolution of CaCO3 from the sea floor and on land and, ultimately, by silicate weathering on land. The recovery of ocean pH restores the ocean’s buffer capacity to absorb CO2, tending to pull CO2 toward lower concentrations over the next 10,000 years. The land biosphere has its greatest impact within the first few centuries, which is when CO2 peaks. Nowhere in these model results or in the published literature is there any reason to conclude that the effects of CO2 release will be substantially confined to just a few centuries. In contrast, generally accepted modern understanding of the global carbon cycle indicates that climate effects of CO2 releases to the atmosphere will persist for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years into the future.

link

Not within human timeframes.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 18 Jul 2017, 18:34:16

Cid_Yama wrote:Greenhouse gases will heat up planet 'forever'

– Professor David Archer of Chicago University – warns that "The ocean is getting fed up with absorbing our CO2,"


This is anthropomorphism of the worse sort. Oceans don't have emotions---they don't get "fed up" about anything. And contrary to Prof. Archer's theory, the Ocean isn't going to throw a hissy fit and stop absorbing CO2.

The reason that the ocean will continue to absorb CO2 is that CO2 dissolved into the ocean combines with Calcium in solution to create CaCO3---i.e. the shells of tiny foraminifera and other marine creatures. These creatures die quickly, and their shells sink to the bottom of the ocean, removing CO2 from the surface waters so that more atmospheric CO2 can be absorbed. Yes, this process can't quickly remove all the CO2 from the air, but Archer is wrong to suggest that the ocean will get "fed up" and this process will stop.

Cheers!

Image
CO2 absorbed into the ocean is used to build the shells of marine critters like foraminifera. This removes the CO2 from the water, allowing the ocean to absorb more atmospheric CO2.

Cheers!

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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 18 Jul 2017, 18:47:02

I gave you the actual paper, read it.

http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/repr ... v_tail.pdf

Like most deniers, you first ridicule something said by one of the scientists, then pretend like that is the only scientist involved. You don't read the paper, thus haven't a clue what they are talking about, then make up your own theory about what you think they are talking about, then pretend that disproves what the paper says.

I thought you were beyond that.

Start over, read the paper, then make an informed criticism if you have one.
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Re: The Extinction Of Humanity pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 18 Jul 2017, 19:13:04

Plantagenet wrote:CO2 absorbed into the ocean is used to build the shells of marine critters like foraminifera. This removes the CO2 from the water, allowing the ocean to absorb more atmospheric CO2.

Cheers!

Not if the oceans are tragically acidic due to the additional CO2 uptake and increased carbolic acid load. Then those unfortunate marine critters and their fragile shells melt . . . and the CO2 has nowhere to go. It gets even more tragic because this process creates a positive-reinforced loop of critter death resulting in a buildup of additional anaerobic-induced methane

Sadly(:lol
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