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THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 13:54:56

.
The US Senate has tabled a set of sanctions against Russia and propose to make them federal laws
it seems to aim to cripple Russia gas exports to the EU ,
in particular arctic exploration and the building of North Stream 2
but can also be applied to any mineral extraction .

Frau Merkel is not amused
From the BBC
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40299760
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 16:20:56

Pennsylvania just released April production numbers.

New monthly record, as far as I know, was set by Cabot's T Kropa 10.
It produced over 1.3 Bcf for April, a daily flow rate of 43,375 MMcfd.
At 1.54 Bcf cum over 5 weeks, it is actually surpassed by the 1.86 Bcf produced by sister well Kropa 8, online 51 days.
The 5 wells recently turned in line on this pad have cumulatively produced over 6 Bcf in 7 weeks time.

This is simply an astonishing amount of gas.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 10:05:08

.
an all mighty political dogfight is on

Thirteen EU nations back plan for talks with Russia over pipeline
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-gaz ... 9H1O9?il=0
the subtext is kicking the Russians , showing subservience to Washington and helping Ukraine ( who make a lot of money from transit fees )

on one side is the "new Europe" countries , on the other it's Germany and France

"We had 13 delegations intervening, with all of them being supportive of the Commission's approach," Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic told Reuters by telephone after presenting the EU executive's case to member states."

"However, many EU nations have yet to take a stand.

"It is quite toxic. Many member states are quite wary of advertising their position," one diplomat told Reuters."
"Several EU diplomats said the measures proposed by the U.S. Senate have already backfired against their stated aim of bolstering European energy security.

"It's a divisive measure," one senior official said. "It's easy for the U.S. to go after Russian gas of course, they don't use it. ... We are trying to make the best of a bad thing by balancing the interest of different member states."

"Adding to tensions is the threat of new U.S. sanctions on Russia that would penalise Western firms involved in Nord Stream 2: Uniper (EONGn.DE), Wintershall (BASFn.DE), Shell (RDSa.L), OMV (OMVV.VI) and Engie (ENGIE.PA)."
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 11:47:27

As much as this political fallout is significant, it all pales when one looks at what is happening within Saudi Arabia.
Every month that their foreign reserves decline is akin to one step closer to walking off the edge of the plank.

The economic and geopolitical consequences of all this hydrocarbon stuff these past several years is truly momentous.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 12:01:57

then would someone please tell me why our constant drumbeat against Russia. The election meddling story completely dominates MSNBC and CNN. I am not even convinced it's real. FOX is no better, at best they ignore the whole damn thing.

What is the US's problem with Russia? Europe desperately needs Russian petroleum. Are we trying to start WWIII. Or just being @jerks? :-x
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby dissident » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 15:48:03

pstarr wrote:then would someone please tell me why our constant drumbeat against Russia. The election meddling story completely dominates MSNBC and CNN. I am not even convinced it's real. FOX is no better, at best they ignore the whole damn thing.

What is the US's problem with Russia? Europe desperately needs Russian petroleum. Are we trying to start WWIII. Or just being @jerks? :-x


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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 16:53:32

.
I suspect ti's to keep Europe from becoming a political rival ,
they already are an economic and financial alternative to the US .
the transatlantic stresses are becoming painful
the recent serie of Washington foreign entanglements and policies raise a lot of questions as to the limit of the alliance
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 17:02:17

Just posted this over on another thread

"
pstarr wrote:Of course it's about oil. But to admit as such, would mean committing to one of two real positions, to wit:

1) It is about the oil and we are America, we need it, we deserve it, and we will do anything for the oil. Such an honest appraisal would simplify things greatly. We would choose total oil-field domination and acquisition: replete with full field/pipeline/refinery situation protection. Drone managed. That would save the US loss of military lives and equipment expenditures.

2) It is about the oil and we are a member of the human race, specifically Europe. Such an honest appraisal would also simply things greatly. Except Europe would pay for it.


I didn't expect a response.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 20:19:04

coffeeguyzz wrote:Pennsylvania just released April production numbers.

New monthly record, as far as I know, was set by Cabot's T Kropa 10.
It produced over 1.3 Bcf for April, a daily flow rate of 43,375 MMcfd.
At 1.54 Bcf cum over 5 weeks, it is actually surpassed by the 1.86 Bcf produced by sister well Kropa 8, online 51 days.
The 5 wells recently turned in line on this pad have cumulatively produced over 6 Bcf in 7 weeks time.

This is simply an astonishing amount of gas.


Not to put too fine a point on it, and those are good shale numbers, but go check out Norphlet wells if you want to see some volume.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 16:01:15

.
More gas on the market
and a good bit of geopolitics to boot , Qatar announce a 30% increase in production

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-gulf-q ... 9P1TU?il=0
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby dissident » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 22:39:07

sparky wrote:.
More gas on the market
and a good bit of geopolitics to boot , Qatar announce a 30% increase in production

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-gulf-q ... 9P1TU?il=0


The US shenanigans with LNG "replacement" for Russian pipeline gas are a retarded joke. The US has nowhere near the capacity of 150 bcm per year of exports needed to displace Russian supplies to the EU. The US is a net natural gas importer and its suppliers can't ramp up their supply for re-export to the EU. Since Brussels parasite bureaucrats need to prove their fealty to Uncle Scam 24/7, Russia needs to transition to LNG exports to the EU. Pipelines are a double edged sword since they involve long term contracts which under current supply drop conditions implies long term losses. The LNG spot market is the most flexible option. Let EU-tards eat LNG cake and pay 50-100% more for natural gas compared to what they pay now for Russian supplies.

Gazprom is building LNG plants with access to the Baltic Sea but it should re-scope this project:

http://www.gazprom.com/about/production/projects/lng/
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 03:57:13

.
There has been some action toward this , the Yamal gas is supposed to feed three LNG trains of liquefiers
a small detail it's a joint project with China and French companies involved , in fact the Chinese loaned the money to Total and the main operator Novatek , under sanctions ,Siemens of Germany will provide the turbines
the LNG is to be delivered through the North East passage to China with a Fleet of special tankers build by the Korean Daewood operated by a Russian company
as a purely technical exercise I would be curious to see the local climate influence on the plants efficiency
the gas has to be cooled a lot ,
Qatar is doing it with ambient temperatures around 45Dg C
Yamal winter temperature is around - 45DgC

the LNG versus high pressure pipeline is usually better for the pipes but it require a peaceful and steady political environment , while LNG is way more flexible
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby dashster » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 01:28:26

Yoshua wrote:US conventional nat gas peaked in 2008. US coal peaked in 2008. Shale gas accounts for two thirds of US gas production today.


According to figures at the EIA
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050us2a.htm

marketed conventional US natural gas production peaked in in the early 1970's.
2008 had total production (potentially including shale) of 21,112,053, while the early 1970's had [21,920,642; 22,493,012; 22,531,698; 22,647,549; 21,600,522] of conventional natural gas production from 1970 to 1974.

The EIA data also shows that conventional plus shale gas production hit a monthly high in July 2015 and a yearly high in 2015. The front page currently has an article saying that the EIA is predicting that coal will go from 30.4% of 2016 US electricity production to 31.3% in 2017 and that natural gas will go from 33.8% to 31.1%. The article blames the change on rising natural gas prices. So it will be more than interesting to see if the 2015 peak can be exceeded, that is, see whether or not the shale bubble has burst as predicted by David Hughes for the Post Carbon Institute.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 10:55:08

"...conventional US natural gas production peaked in in the early 1970's." Actually that chart doesn't appear to distinguish conventional NG production from unconventional reservoirs. Granted there's been a recent boom in unconventional production the Rockman was drilling and frac'ng unconventional reservoirs in the 1970's. Others were doing so in the 1950's. But though the data isn't available the vast majority of NG production, until recently, has been from conventional reservoirs.

Given the Marcellus Shale has been the primary source of the recent NG boom tracking it might be the best predictor. According to EIA the NG rig count in the MS shale has doubled in the last year (and still increasing slowly) but is still less then half of where it peaked in 2012.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby dashster » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 11:34:32

ROCKMAN wrote:"...conventional US natural gas production peaked in in the early 1970's." Actually that chart doesn't appear to distinguish conventional NG production from unconventional reservoirs. Granted there's been a recent boom in unconventional production the Rockman was drilling and frac'ng unconventional reservoirs in the 1970's. Others were doing so in the 1950's. But though the data isn't available the vast majority of NG production, until recently, has been from conventional reservoirs.

Given the Marcellus Shale has been the primary source of the recent NG boom tracking it might be the best predictor. According to EIA the NG rig count in the MS shale has doubled in the last year (and still increasing slowly) but is still less then half of where it peaked in 2012.


If we assume that fracking gas wasn't as significant back then, then the higher numbers in the 1970's included a higher percentage of conventional natural gas so that would be the peak. If we don't assume that, I don't know what would make conventional natural gas high in the 1970's, then decline, only to hit a peak in 2008 (if a true claim). Why would they find and/or produce more conventional natural gas three decades later?
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 16:21:55

Didn't say production of NG from conventional reservoirs didn't peak some years ago...just don't have data to establish an exact date. But did point out that much of the current production is coming from the unconventional Marcellus Shale formation.

Just not exactly sure of the distinction. Many of the MS wells have been more economical ventures then many of the conventional completions over the last few decades. Especially those completed offshore in the GOM. As pointed out many times when the Rockman's new company began about 8 years ago we spent $240 million (just our share) drilling deep conventional reservoirs in S Louisiana. And the NG prices fell below $5/MCF about 5 years ago and we have a drilled such well a well in the last 5 years. Meanwhile the MS has been picking up the slack nationally at the lower price.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 13:38:58

And finally the dumb ass politicians in PA are going to charge NG producers a severance tax...maybe. Unlike Texas and many other states PA has never collected a severance tax from companies that produce oil/NG. Several years ago the Rockman calculated the ST the state would have collected just that one year if it had the same rate as Texas: $370 million. BTW Louisiana charges almost 3X as much ST on oil as Texas:

"One of the top natural gas-producing states in the country, Pennsylvania's Senate-passed plan, which must still be approved by the state's GOP-majority House of Representatives, would increase drillers' costs in the state by imposing a severance tax of 2 cents per thousand cubic feet on natural gas production to generate an estimated $80 million this year for the state." But Texas collects at a rate almost 4X greater: 7.5% of market value of gas produced. And Louisiana: 16.3¢ per MCF regardless of how low NG prices go.

And the argument that companies won't drill as much in PA if it imposed a ST is obviously BS: look at the number of wells drilled in Texas and Louisiana.

But they are going to tax consumers much heavier:

"In addition, the proposal would levy a 5.7-percent natural gas gross receipts tax on home heating bills expected to yield approximately $400 million."

Texas has collected many tens of $BILLIONS in ST over the years. And PA = ZERO
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 14:19:21

Another indication of the UK's potential energy vulnerability:

July 26 (Reuters) - The extension of an outage at Norway's Kollsnes gas processing plant on Wednesday lifted British gas prices on expectations of tighter supply over the next few months.

More at

http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/1 ... ish_Prices
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 08:57:48

ROCKMAN wrote:baha - Nothing wrong with being optimistic about coal consumption declining to a very minimal level...many decades down the road. But not next year or even next decade. And that decline will be delayed if the price of NG/LNG increases 3X to levels seen not that many years ago. Consumers, especially those in developing economies, will demand the lowest cost energy. Likewise renewables could SLOWLY reduce coal consumption.

As long as the world is consuming near record levels of coal TODAY such optimism seems borderline delusional. Not trying to hurt anyone's feelings but as you imply the numbers can't be ignored.


Any idea how long the recent glut of Natural Gas is going to last? When I bought my first house back in 2004 I was slammed with a cold winter and natural gas prices over $11/ccf. I invested money in a super efficient super modern furnace and a year later the price of natural gas was plummeting. By the end of 2006 prices were back at the long term average and then they fell even further. Thus my furnace investment that would have saved me roughly a thousand dollars per year was suddenly saving me less than two hundred compared to the old unit.

The reason so many thousands of gas burning electric plants have been built is mostly economic, directly from the cost of the fuel and indirectly from the ease of permitting a gas burner compared to a coal burner.

Take away the permitting obstacles and bring the price of natural gas above the 2000 price on a long term consistent basis and there is zero economic incentive to not build new coal burners. Thus IMO the decline in coal burning is fully dependent on Natural Gas remaining cheap on the BTU basis.
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