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Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 14:32:52

Some links people might find interesting:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/11/scie ... fires.html

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/c ... -wildfires

Global Warming-Fueled Wildfires Increasing

In terms of acreage burned, the worldwide total may be dropping because of better firefighting, but in North America and Siberia "fires have grown quite a bit due to warming...

"Globally we are seeing more fires, bigger fires, more severe fires..."

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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 14:37:57

We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years.

Great refutation of how this assertion in Rockdoc's link does NOT translate to less fires but simply less areas effectively burned D.
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 14:55:55

Great refutation of how this assertion in Rockdoc's link does NOT translate to less fires but simply less areas effectively burned D.


not sure why I bother posting papers when nobody bothers to read them. The authors are pointing to a measured decrease globally in both number of fires and area burned as is shown in the graphs I posted.

And if you feel comfortable saying the NY times and Weather.com can refute a peer reviewed paper in an article written about a year prior to the paper being published then you have invented time travel....congratulations. :roll:
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 15:03:08

http://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change ... a-19465490
Science suggests that over the past few decades, the number of wildfires has indeed increased, especially in the western United States. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), every state in the western US has experienced an increase in the average annual number of large wildfires over past decades.

Extensive studies have found that large forest fires in the western US have been occurring nearly five times more often since the 1970s and 80s. Such fires are burning more than six times the land area as before, and lasting almost five times longer.


According to Funk, not only US forests are endangered by increasing wildfires - the trend has been that wildfires are burning more area around the world.

"In recent years, there have been big fires in Siberia and various other places around the world where we typically don't see large-scale wildfires," he said.

Projections by the UCS suggest that wildfires could get four, five and even six times as bad as they currently are within this century.
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 15:33:41

I don't see an actual publication but simply a "science suggests" without anything to back it up. And indeed it is wrong.
Previously I've posted a graph that shows for the US "the number of wildfires' has not increased and that is data from the site that is the keeper of all the US fire information. That is backed up by the recent paper I just posted.

And the information from the recent paper I pointed to is a publication by NASA. Perhaps NASA isn't always right but they aren't going to publish something that isn't backed up by the data.

For North America (both graphs of which I have posted in the past) this study indicates that from 1998 - 2015 burned area in NA decreased by 0.37 %/year and fire number decreased by 1.44%/year. For the world fire number decreased by 1% and burned area by 1.35%/year.

So if you can reference an actual recent paper that disagrees with the simple observation made by NASA and published this week.....both fire area and fire numbers have decreased globally over at least the last 18 years then that is great, I'm all ears and eyes. But newspaper articles that have the tendency to play fast and loose with opinion versus fact versus speculation are hardly something to consider.
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 15:50:55

Well okay then from NASA
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2315/stud ... e-frequent
Study: Fire seasons getting longer, more frequent

It is important to note that although the study shows many environments have become more prone to fires,
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 17:39:11

Strawman argument....that NASA article you linked to from 2015 speaks only to the length of fire season, not how many fires there were nor how large an area was burned. The latest NASA study, however does:

ttps://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/201 ... obal-fires

“Climate change has increased fire risk in many regions, but satellite burned area data show that human activity has effectively counterbalanced that climate risk, especially across the global tropics,” Morton said. “We’ve seen a substantial global decline over the satellite record, and the loss of fire has some really important implications for the Earth system.”
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 18:00:14

Rockdoc, I concede that yours points are on point. But it is not comforting to know less trees are around to burn and ignite even as my link points to extra heat and dryness under these conditions. Land is drying and more vulnerable to desertification. But I am straying from topic
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 18:23:59

Fire fighters will continue their heroic efforts to control these horrific fires. To the extent they are successful, the rd's of the world will continue to opine than, hey, it's not so bad, not as many acres burned as we thought would.

They should all be required to spend the rest of their days doing the hard and dangerous work of fighting these things.
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 18:48:07

Land is drying and more vulnerable to desertification.


the point of the NASA paper is that man's activity is actually reducing the risk for fires globally. That is quite significant.

And for people who have spent their entire sheltered lives in North America it is important to realize that less area burned and less fires is not necessarily a good thing in places like East Africa where the annual fires are what allows for fire succession species to repopulate each year including the grasses that nomadic herds require.
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 09 Jul 2017, 11:15:59

Nearly 2,000 firefighters battling out-of-control wildfires in B.C.

Province in state of emergency as more than 7,000 people are forced from their homes


"A state of emergency remains in effect for all of B.C., giving the government special authority to respond to the fires. Such a state hasn't been declared province-wide since the summer of 2003, when 2,500 fires broke out."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.4196204
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 13:25:20

More on the BC fire here:

10,000 evacuees and counting: How B.C.'s wildfire fight took a turn for the worse

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.4197265

And the latest on the numerous CA wildfires…

http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents

(Thanks to Suz at rs's blog for these)
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 16 Jul 2017, 12:26:02

"Echoes of Fort McMurray — Massive Wildfire Forces the Emptying of Another Canadian City"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/07/16/ ... dian-city/
A little more than a year after a massive wildfire forced the full evacuation of Fort McMurray in Alberta, another set of extreme wildfires in British Columbia is again forcing major population centers to empty. In the region of Williams Lake and Cariboo City, 17,400 people have been forced to flee as a wildfire is threatening the major highway exiting the area. As the fire expands, another 27,000 in the broader province may also be asked to leave. This mass evacuation has been enough to empty large urban centers — turning them into ghost towns as fires rage through the surrounding countryside.
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby WildRose » Sun 16 Jul 2017, 17:18:40

Dash CAM video of escape from Williams Lake, BC wildfire, hope I never have to do this!

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/vi ... 9661139001

Status as of today: 37,000 evacuated so far:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3602352/b-c-w ... -by-fires/

dohboi, thanks for all your information. I haven't been keeping up with this as well as I usually would (my mom's had a couple of hospitalizations, so I've been pretty busy).

Nasty fires. We're getting dry in Alberta now. We started out the spring nice and green, but have only had half of our usual rainfall this season and things look quite warm and dry the next couple weeks, so we better be careful as things get drier, especially with the crazy winds that seem to be such a constant factor these days. Lots of damaging windstorms this year.
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 16 Jul 2017, 18:17:41

Thanks, Rose.
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 16 Jul 2017, 20:09:26

Fire season is usually over in Alaska by this time of year, but not this year. Its hot and dry and dozens of fires are burning.

We've got a BIG fire up up above the Arctic Circle on the Old Crow River area, partly in Alaska and partly in Canada, that is sending smoke all across northern Canada and central and eastern Alaska.

old-crow-residents-nervous-about-nearby-fires-

Cheers!

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---President Obama, 4/25/16
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Re: Wildfires/Forestfires 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 00:23:00

Thanks for letting us know what's happening on the ground there, P.

Meanwhile, it sounds like there's some action now in norther cal...

http://www.willitsnews.com/general-news ... ubdivision

Pete, are you in this area? I know we've had our differences, but I do want you to stay safe!

Meanwhile, any info you're able to pass our way would be much appreciated.
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