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Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 16:42:12

dohboi wrote:Nice images.

I see much bigger and clearer openings now in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas than there were a year ago.

Is there anything else in the images that you would like to draw our attention to?

The middle of the image shows a pretty large gap where the year before, it was ice covered. I think this was what you referenced D
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 21:14:49

dbruning wrote:Twillingate Newfoundland - taken mid-morning yesterday.

From what I understand, this is where you go to see the ice flowing past, it's just this year the amount is noticeably more so the locals are talking about it.


Ah, we were in Lewisporte, up the arm from Twillingate this AM. The ice appears to run all the way up there and the harbor entrance appears choked. No rush to get the boat in right now. Brrrrr. That ice makes the wind cold.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 17 Jun 2017, 00:46:06

Clam Chowder would be perfect.

Wrap me up in me oil skins and jumpers...
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 17 Jun 2017, 05:48:29

Yes, comfort food. Fight Duff!

To separate "ice" from "bergs" to a bit what is "normal" is for the ice coming down off Labrador and Baffin to float across the Labrador Sea a couple of hundred miles North of Newfoundland. It can make a fairly impenatrable bar. It's one of the things that you have to pay attention to when planning to go to Greenland early in the season.

I'm not 100% sure but my guess is that the big wind they had up here a while ago pushed this ice South and mushed it all up against the shore instead of wher it's supposed to be.

The spring ice floes are not all that consistent or predictable. Lots of different forces going on. People don't go out into the ice sealing like they did a century ago. So we loose our popular awareness of how it works. Even so, just a few years ago the few boys who went out sealing in their 45' to 60' boats got caught and had to be rescued. One or two boats sunk. A couple of crews had to be evacuated because of lacking provisions. They finally got a cutter in there and it made a sweeping swath breaking the ice. As she cut a path the boats fell in behind her and they all came home like ducklings behind the hen.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 11:25:03

The circulation just to the Siberian side of the North Pole now has a pressure at one place in its center of 985 hPa:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 466,84.352

If it were a tropical cyclone, that would put it (barely) within the Category 2 range.

https://australiasevereweather.com/cycl ... _scale.htm
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 13:32:48

dohboi wrote:The circulation just to the Siberian side of the North Pole now has a pressure at one place in its center of 985 hPa:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 466,84.352

If it were a tropical cyclone, that would put it (barely) within the Category 2 range.

https://australiasevereweather.com/cycl ... _scale.htm


Thanks for the Great link dohboi

=> Blue Ocean Event 2017 in September I predict :cry: :arrow: :idea:

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 15:48:11

And now there's an even bigger cyclone predicted in just a few days:

ECMWF 12z op: 967 hpa bomb cyclone at +144h

GFS 12z op run: 967 hpa bomb cyclone at +126h
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 19:46:48

dohboi wrote:The circulation just to the Siberian side of the North Pole now has a pressure at one place in its center of 985 hPa:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 466,84.352

If it were a tropical cyclone, that would put it (barely) within the Category 2 range.

https://australiasevereweather.com/cycl ... _scale.htm


The low pressure over Siberia to the south of Novaya Zemlya has central pressure of 984 hPa. These are some nasty low pressure systems. The other low pressure systems seen on the dynamic map don't compare.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby chilyb » Fri 23 Jun 2017, 09:23:48

dissident wrote:
dohboi wrote:The circulation just to the Siberian side of the North Pole now has a pressure at one place in its center of 985 hPa:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 466,84.352

If it were a tropical cyclone, that would put it (barely) within the Category 2 range.

https://australiasevereweather.com/cycl ... _scale.htm


The low pressure over Siberia to the south of Novaya Zemlya has central pressure of 984 hPa. These are some nasty low pressure systems. The other low pressure systems seen on the dynamic map don't compare.


does anyone have an update on this?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 23 Jun 2017, 19:24:15

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/image ... 1.fnl.html

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/image ... 1.fnl.html

That cyclone near Iceland is probably helping to transport ice out of the Fram Strait.

If you want regular updates and commentary on Arctic sea ice conditions by mostly bright, well informed folks, check out: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.p ... #msg118099
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Fri 23 Jun 2017, 21:28:44

Check out the mini-cyclones around Antarctica:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 17,-62.934

Central pressures as low as 962 hPa.

So it looks like the new normal is for low pressure systems with extreme circulation amplitudes to develop. These storm systems must have been occurring regularly in the past, but I wonder if the had such low central pressures. Nothing constrains the extra thermal energy that is now accumulating in the atmosphere and oceans from manifesting itself in more extreme circulation patterns.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 23 Jun 2017, 21:41:21

Wow. Weird. Thanks.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 24 Jun 2017, 05:49:38

Image
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 24 Jun 2017, 11:32:44

dissident wrote:Check out the mini-cyclones around Antarctica:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 17,-62.934

Central pressures as low as 962 hPa.

So it looks like the new normal is for low pressure systems with extreme circulation amplitudes to develop. These storm systems must have been occurring regularly in the past, but I wonder if the had such low central pressures. Nothing constrains the extra thermal energy that is now accumulating in the atmosphere and oceans from manifesting itself in more extreme circulation patterns.

Are those the "rolling forties" I've heard buffer Antarctica somewhat from swift change? I don't know. I've never seen them in an image, only heard they exist. Those could be further out from land, or this close as far as I know. If so, they've been around a long time. I wonder, along with you, whether their character is changing.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 24 Jun 2017, 15:34:51

Roaring Fourties
Furious Fifties
Screaming Sixties

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roaring_Forties
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Sat 24 Jun 2017, 20:27:47

evilgenius wrote:
dissident wrote:Check out the mini-cyclones around Antarctica:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 17,-62.934

Central pressures as low as 962 hPa.

So it looks like the new normal is for low pressure systems with extreme circulation amplitudes to develop. These storm systems must have been occurring regularly in the past, but I wonder if the had such low central pressures. Nothing constrains the extra thermal energy that is now accumulating in the atmosphere and oceans from manifesting itself in more extreme circulation patterns.

Are those the "rolling forties" I've heard buffer Antarctica somewhat from swift change? I don't know. I've never seen them in an image, only heard they exist. Those could be further out from land, or this close as far as I know. If so, they've been around a long time. I wonder, along with you, whether their character is changing.


These are closer to the south pole (around 60 S) than the roaring 40s. The roaring 40s are the result of lack of land mass drag on the westerly winds and do not seem to be populated by many intense low pressure eddies. The ring of mini-cyclones is likely related to the strong temperature gradient moving from the ice free ocean to the Antarctic ice fields (sea and land). I can see this gradient getting steeper under global warming: the cold ice zone stays about the same in terms of temperature, but the ice free ocean zone and middle latitudes get warmer.
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Paul B. on sea ice and methane monster

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 13:58:22

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ovq2El0mvE

Paul B. on the high arctic......

What happens next?

After the first blue ocean event that is.......

What happens afterwards to the ice. Does it vanish for longer and longer durations until it is gone year round? Do we reach a state with 6 months of ice in winter and open water all summer? Does something else happen?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGGL7LT0r3w

Vast amounts of methane exists within ocean floor sediments on the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf, in the form of methane hydrates & free methane gas. Up to recently, gas release to the shallow water column (50 meters deep) & atmosphere has been slow, with the subsea permafrost acting as a million corks on a million champagne bottles to contain the methane. Now, rapid thawing of the permafrost has released 10% of the corks, allowing rapid ongoing increases in methane release.


New Shakova paper! june this year peachy fresh......

http://robinwestenra.blogspot.nl/2017/0 ... letoc.html

The rates of subsea permafrost degradation and occurrence of gas-migration pathways are key factors controlling the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) methane (CH4) emissions, yet these factors still require assessment. It is thought that after inundation, permafrost-degradation rates would decrease over time and submerged thaw-lake taliks would freeze; therefore, no CH4 release would occur for millennia. Here we present results of the first comprehensive scientific re-drilling to show that subsea permafrost in the near-shore zone of the ESAS has a downward movement of the ice-bonded permafrost table of ∼14 cm year−1 over the past 31–32 years. Our data reveal polygonal thermokarst patterns on the seafloor and gas-migration associated with submerged taliks, ice scouring and pockmarks. Knowing the rate and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation is a prerequisite to meaningful predictions of near-future CH4 release in the Arctic.


Prerequisite to meaningful predictions of near-future CH4 release in the Arctic.

That is pretty weak, so no meaningfull predictions yet?
What about the release that has been going on for years now?
About those above 2000 ppb measurements, observations by sailors....bubble bubble....
At least some more info on happenings at the ESAS, past and present.

http://envisionation.co.uk

http://envisionation.co.uk/index.php/ni ... ed-decline

Interview by Nick Breeze with Shakova last April.

Shakhova explains that during the period between ice ages, called an interglacial period, the permafrost starts to thin due to the warming. It has been pointed out that in previous interglacials, the temperatures were even higher than they are now but the methane hydrates were not released from the ESAS.

Dr. Shakhova: Despite the fact that in the Eamian (the interglacial period that occurred 130,000 - 115,000 years ago) the temperatures reached higher numbers but the duration of this optimum period was shorter (about 2 thousand years) and was followed by cooling; in the Holocene, there is still no cooling after more than 5 thousand years of warming.

For subsea permafrost, it was long thought that because the duration of warming is more important than surface temperatures themselves, in order to start thawing, it must first reach an equilibrium with the surrounding environment. For that reason, it only matters that the temperature of the surrounding environment reaches the level at which permafrost thaws; after that, it makes no difference if the temperature reaches +5ºC, or +7ºC; once thawed, it is no longer permafrost. We also demonstrated in our latest paper, that there are more intricate mechanisms of permafrost disintegration, not known before, that allow gas migration pathways to form well before the whole permafrost body is thawed through.

What is important is that it is above the thaw point and how long this warming lasted. This is what effects the permafrost more effectively than the temperature itself


Dr. Shakhova: As we showed in our articles, in the ESAS, in some places, subsea permafrost is reaching the thaw point. In other areas it could have reached this point already. And what can happen then? The most important consequence could be in terms of growing methane emissions… a linear trend becomes exponential.

This edge between it being linear and becoming exponential is very fine and lays between frozen and thawed states of subsea permafrost. This is what we call the turning point. To me, I cannot take the responsibility in saying there is a right point between the linear and exponential yet, but following the logic of our investigation and all the evidence that we accumulated so far, it makes me think that we are very near this point. And in this particular point, each year matters.

This is the big difference between being on the linear trend where hundreds and thousands of years matter, and being on the exponential where each year matters.

Shakhova and Semiletov currently estimate that of the 2,000,000 sq km’s that comprise the ESAS, 200,000 sq km’s (10%) are what they would call hotspots, areas where methane emissions are observed as being far greater than in the lower background area.


Emissions that are occurring right now are the result of a combined effect of natural and anthropogenic warming and they will be accelerated until warming is turned to cooling. Even after it happens, there is no mechanism to stop permafrost disintegration in the ESAS besides shelf exposure above the sea level that would serve to freeze the gas migration paths so that they integrate with the permafrost. Before that, the amount of methane that is releasing will increase while the supply lasts.

As gas within the sedimentary basins of the ESAS have been accumulating for a million years with no way to be released earlier, the supply for currently occurring emissions is tremendous. Because the shelf area is very shallow (mean depth is less than 50 metres), a fraction of these emissions will reach the atmosphere. The problem is that this fraction would be enough to alter the climate on our planet drastically.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 14:06:58

http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2017/ ... l?spref=fb
North Pole sea ice is record thin and incapable of resisting ocean currents
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PB on ice

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 09:34:36

To get back at Beckwith on thin ice:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL_o3Mw-aYM&t=457s

He shows the trends pretty clear, online and with good visual info.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TDCSl4S-Pg

Paul against that Guy......

That we will solve this minor issue by Geo engineering.

In this rant, I weigh in to the building fracas between climatologist Paul Beckwith and biologist Guy McPherson, as they debate how long the human race has left on this planet.
Here is a link to Paul Beckwith's latest rant:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaEe2...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y12_fKHDxhI

In this two-part rant, I dive more deeply into the tragicomic spat brewing between my two Humptydumptytribe heroes, apocaloptimist Paul Beckwith and doom n' gloomer Guy McPherson. From there, I go onto the wider subject of one area that Paul and Guy can agree on: if you are getting something out of their work, you might want to consider ponying up a few bucks to support them
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 10:12:21

Geo engineering seems to me a long shot but if/when things really start to unravel well we might as well try something
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