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Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 16:42:12

dohboi wrote:Nice images.

I see much bigger and clearer openings now in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas than there were a year ago.

Is there anything else in the images that you would like to draw our attention to?

The middle of the image shows a pretty large gap where the year before, it was ice covered. I think this was what you referenced D
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 21:14:49

dbruning wrote:Twillingate Newfoundland - taken mid-morning yesterday.

From what I understand, this is where you go to see the ice flowing past, it's just this year the amount is noticeably more so the locals are talking about it.


Ah, we were in Lewisporte, up the arm from Twillingate this AM. The ice appears to run all the way up there and the harbor entrance appears choked. No rush to get the boat in right now. Brrrrr. That ice makes the wind cold.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 17 Jun 2017, 00:46:06

Clam Chowder would be perfect.

Wrap me up in me oil skins and jumpers...
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 17 Jun 2017, 05:48:29

Yes, comfort food. Fight Duff!

To separate "ice" from "bergs" to a bit what is "normal" is for the ice coming down off Labrador and Baffin to float across the Labrador Sea a couple of hundred miles North of Newfoundland. It can make a fairly impenatrable bar. It's one of the things that you have to pay attention to when planning to go to Greenland early in the season.

I'm not 100% sure but my guess is that the big wind they had up here a while ago pushed this ice South and mushed it all up against the shore instead of wher it's supposed to be.

The spring ice floes are not all that consistent or predictable. Lots of different forces going on. People don't go out into the ice sealing like they did a century ago. So we loose our popular awareness of how it works. Even so, just a few years ago the few boys who went out sealing in their 45' to 60' boats got caught and had to be rescued. One or two boats sunk. A couple of crews had to be evacuated because of lacking provisions. They finally got a cutter in there and it made a sweeping swath breaking the ice. As she cut a path the boats fell in behind her and they all came home like ducklings behind the hen.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 11:25:03

The circulation just to the Siberian side of the North Pole now has a pressure at one place in its center of 985 hPa:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 466,84.352

If it were a tropical cyclone, that would put it (barely) within the Category 2 range.

https://australiasevereweather.com/cycl ... _scale.htm
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 13:32:48

dohboi wrote:The circulation just to the Siberian side of the North Pole now has a pressure at one place in its center of 985 hPa:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 466,84.352

If it were a tropical cyclone, that would put it (barely) within the Category 2 range.

https://australiasevereweather.com/cycl ... _scale.htm


Thanks for the Great link dohboi

=> Blue Ocean Event 2017 in September I predict :cry: :arrow: :idea:

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 15:48:11

And now there's an even bigger cyclone predicted in just a few days:

ECMWF 12z op: 967 hpa bomb cyclone at +144h

GFS 12z op run: 967 hpa bomb cyclone at +126h
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 19:46:48

dohboi wrote:The circulation just to the Siberian side of the North Pole now has a pressure at one place in its center of 985 hPa:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 466,84.352

If it were a tropical cyclone, that would put it (barely) within the Category 2 range.

https://australiasevereweather.com/cycl ... _scale.htm


The low pressure over Siberia to the south of Novaya Zemlya has central pressure of 984 hPa. These are some nasty low pressure systems. The other low pressure systems seen on the dynamic map don't compare.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby chilyb » Fri 23 Jun 2017, 09:23:48

dissident wrote:
dohboi wrote:The circulation just to the Siberian side of the North Pole now has a pressure at one place in its center of 985 hPa:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 466,84.352

If it were a tropical cyclone, that would put it (barely) within the Category 2 range.

https://australiasevereweather.com/cycl ... _scale.htm


The low pressure over Siberia to the south of Novaya Zemlya has central pressure of 984 hPa. These are some nasty low pressure systems. The other low pressure systems seen on the dynamic map don't compare.


does anyone have an update on this?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 23 Jun 2017, 19:24:15

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/image ... 1.fnl.html

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/image ... 1.fnl.html

That cyclone near Iceland is probably helping to transport ice out of the Fram Strait.

If you want regular updates and commentary on Arctic sea ice conditions by mostly bright, well informed folks, check out: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.p ... #msg118099
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Fri 23 Jun 2017, 21:28:44

Check out the mini-cyclones around Antarctica:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 17,-62.934

Central pressures as low as 962 hPa.

So it looks like the new normal is for low pressure systems with extreme circulation amplitudes to develop. These storm systems must have been occurring regularly in the past, but I wonder if the had such low central pressures. Nothing constrains the extra thermal energy that is now accumulating in the atmosphere and oceans from manifesting itself in more extreme circulation patterns.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 23 Jun 2017, 21:41:21

Wow. Weird. Thanks.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 24 Jun 2017, 05:49:38

Image
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 24 Jun 2017, 11:32:44

dissident wrote:Check out the mini-cyclones around Antarctica:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 17,-62.934

Central pressures as low as 962 hPa.

So it looks like the new normal is for low pressure systems with extreme circulation amplitudes to develop. These storm systems must have been occurring regularly in the past, but I wonder if the had such low central pressures. Nothing constrains the extra thermal energy that is now accumulating in the atmosphere and oceans from manifesting itself in more extreme circulation patterns.

Are those the "rolling forties" I've heard buffer Antarctica somewhat from swift change? I don't know. I've never seen them in an image, only heard they exist. Those could be further out from land, or this close as far as I know. If so, they've been around a long time. I wonder, along with you, whether their character is changing.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 24 Jun 2017, 15:34:51

Roaring Fourties
Furious Fifties
Screaming Sixties

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roaring_Forties
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Sat 24 Jun 2017, 20:27:47

evilgenius wrote:
dissident wrote:Check out the mini-cyclones around Antarctica:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 17,-62.934

Central pressures as low as 962 hPa.

So it looks like the new normal is for low pressure systems with extreme circulation amplitudes to develop. These storm systems must have been occurring regularly in the past, but I wonder if the had such low central pressures. Nothing constrains the extra thermal energy that is now accumulating in the atmosphere and oceans from manifesting itself in more extreme circulation patterns.

Are those the "rolling forties" I've heard buffer Antarctica somewhat from swift change? I don't know. I've never seen them in an image, only heard they exist. Those could be further out from land, or this close as far as I know. If so, they've been around a long time. I wonder, along with you, whether their character is changing.


These are closer to the south pole (around 60 S) than the roaring 40s. The roaring 40s are the result of lack of land mass drag on the westerly winds and do not seem to be populated by many intense low pressure eddies. The ring of mini-cyclones is likely related to the strong temperature gradient moving from the ice free ocean to the Antarctic ice fields (sea and land). I can see this gradient getting steeper under global warming: the cold ice zone stays about the same in terms of temperature, but the ice free ocean zone and middle latitudes get warmer.
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