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Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby Observerbrb » Fri 19 May 2017, 18:19:29

Oil prices are hovering around 50$ per barrel. Will they hold or even trend upwards? I guess we will see it very soon.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 19 May 2017, 19:00:38

Observerbrb wrote:Oil prices are hovering around 50$ per barrel. Will they hold or even trend upwards? I guess we will see it very soon.

There is virtually no evidence on (or under) the ground that new oil, stuff we have ascertained but not yet developed can be brought to market for less than around $50-$70. So a tremendous oil shortage is certainly forthcoming if the price doesn't go up.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby creedoninmo » Fri 19 May 2017, 19:09:26

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... _MBBLD&f=W
They can produce oil for less than 50 dollars a barrel because they no longer care about a return on their investment.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 19 May 2017, 19:18:02

dissident wrote:The masturbators who dismiss any accounting for energy in oil extraction implicitly assume and assert that there will always be cheaper energy sources to extract the expensive oil (and gas). Where is there as single shred of evidence of cheaper energy sources being deployed in oil and gas extraction? You clowns can't get away with some spontaneous future transition to these mythical cheap sources since any such transition requires years of expensive infrastructure development.
The unwarranted insult in your first sentence is so egregious that any discussion of the rest of your post is pointless.
Perhaps in the future you will behave properly?
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 19 May 2017, 19:29:24

creedoninmo wrote:They can produce oil for less than 50 dollars a barrel because they no longer care about a return on their investment.

There's that to.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby BahamasEd » Fri 19 May 2017, 20:29:39

Lots of good stuff, I loved reading the last 80 or so posts, Now back to some facts.

Back in 2014, both here and at thehillsgroup.org, shortonoil predicted that the EIA annual price of WTI would be under $66 in 2016 and under $54 in 2017. (you can go to the EIA site and look up the price)

No one wants to argue about that, because the prediction has been correct. Come on, I've been posting this weekly for the last few months and NO-ONE has been posting about it. Just a 100 post of bull without much substance.

It's just a waste of time making a new chart for you all, the WTI 50 week EMA price closed at $49.10 which is 80% of the MAP price predicted by the ETP model

The ETP holds for another week, the score is

ETP wins for 135+ weeks in a row.

The prediction for next week is that the 50 week WTI EMA will be under $54.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 19 May 2017, 21:20:05

BahamasEd wrote:Back in 2014, both here and at thehillsgroup.org, shortonoil predicted that the EIA annual price of WTI would be under $66 in 2016 and under $54 in 2017. (you can go to the EIA site and look up the price)

No one wants to argue about that, because the prediction has been correct. Come on, I've been posting this weekly for the last few months and NO-ONE has been posting about it. Just a 100 post of bull without much substance.
You are looking for commentary on the price forecasting abilities of shortonoil? Ok. shortonoil was still predicting $200 oil in 2014:

shortonoil wrote:Sat 19 Jul 2014 - $200 per barrel oil by 2025 is a much more likely scenario than $120.


His predictions for low oil prices did not happen until after oil prices already started to fall. That is not very impressive IMHO. Other forecasters were already calling for low oil prices before this:

JUN 9, 2014 - It is important to be aware of several factors that have a high probability of pushing crude oil prices lower in the next couple of years.
...
Commercial hedgers are the actual producers and users of crude oil (the Exxons and BPs) who utilize the futures market as a form of insurance against adverse price moves. Commercial hedgers are considered to be the "smart money" because, after all, they are the physical crude oil market and have firsthand information about future supply and demand trends.

Commercial hedgers now have a record 445,492 net contract short position in the crude oil futures market, which indicates that their greatest concern is not an increase in crude oil prices, but a sharp decline. Commercial crude oil hedgers are aware of many of the bearish points that I am discussing in this article, which likely explains why they are heavily hedging against a coming crude oil bust.
9 Reasons Why Oil Prices May Be Headed For A Bust

And further, we have been guessing oil prices for years here at PO.com. And not just a high. High, low, close, etc. Some of the posters here have gotten eerily close for multiple years. SeaGypsy was only off by one penny for the low in 2010, and his high was within 50 cents. He was number 1 again in 2011 with his low and high predictions only $2 off. In 2012 his low guess was only off by 9 cents. That is far more impressive IMHO.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 19 May 2017, 21:37:44

marmico wrote:The only thing that is changing is the amount of energy and money spent on finding, drilling for and delivering that oil to the refinery and that has to be calculated over all the different oil fields in the world from KSA to Alberta tar sands times each ones percentage of the market.

Correct. Brandt studied 40 oil fields around the world and concluded: The net energy return ratios (NERs) examined in this study for global oilfields range from approximately 2:1 to 100:1, with a production-weighted mean of 33:1.

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/articl ... ne.0144141


40 oil fields? Gee. Wow. The last time I built a global oil model it used approx 28,000, not including the US. Any chance Brandt might get around to using the the other 99.8%?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Fri 19 May 2017, 21:41:42

Seems you boys are beating this horse to death.
Impressive...now if you want to see impressive...watch Bob Baker show you it here in a clip from The Price is Right

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V_96_ITeIFo

Now we have one on the opposite side of the coin

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BMCFRElyaCc

Now, fellas, that is a whole lot more entertaining and worthwhile than hearing the consent bickering about that silly bet. Maybe Sea gypsy should go on The Price is Right!
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 19 May 2017, 21:41:53

creedoninmo wrote:Thanks for the great post Don. In the peak oil community, there is certainly a lot of chatter.


What peak oil community? Websites like this one? It might be about the only one left, and the percentage of ETP salesmen to posters is pretty high. You mistaking salesmen for chatter?

creedoninmo wrote:
In central Missouri the local university is cutting 12 percent. Our local City has rising expenses and flat revenue. I read last week that Ford is cutting it's work force by 10 percent. Retail is slowing down. Collapse is occurring exactly at the rate it should and no faster. Remember as Short has said oil price follows the economy, it doesn't lead.


Not according to pstarr. He claims every economic crisis, geopolitical event and solar flare was PRECEDED by a jump in oil price. Low oil prices then stimulating the economy, not harming it.

Any reason you think it makes sense, to claim that something that doesn't happen, now suddenly will?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 19 May 2017, 21:53:34

creedoninmo wrote:https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPM0F_YPY_NUS_MBBLD&f=W
They can produce oil for less than 50 dollars a barrel because they no longer care about a return on their investment.


So that economic understanding you claimed, apparently doesn't exist. Another characteristic of ETP salesmen I might add.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 19 May 2017, 22:00:28

BahamasEd wrote:No one wants to argue about that, because the prediction has been correct.


It doesn't make predictions. It just extrapolates along a curve, and you are apparently assuming correlation and causation.

There is no need to argue about this, in some short period of time (far shorter than the length of time it took for the US and the world to invalidate bell shaped curves) it won't be predicted anything.

So just wait a little. And then someone else will need to make up some other curve that purports to predict stuff, and it will require a far more convoluted manipulation and combination of random facts to create, and all the zealots will drop the current bad idea and go after the newest one like white on rice. They are predictable, if nothing else.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby creedoninmo » Sat 20 May 2017, 05:31:48

Adam B wrote: Not according to pstarr. He claims every economic crisis, geopolitical event and solar flare was PRECEDED by a jump in oil price. Low oil prices then stimulating the economy, not harming it.
A jump in oil prices will cause an economic crises; a fall in oil prices will cause production to go off line; but this is so simple that it shouldn't have to be said. On a well run website trolls are deleted. This website obviously has some problems.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby creedoninmo » Sat 20 May 2017, 06:44:19

Thanks Kublikhan for your post and links; So we should be following the smart money the commercial hedgers. Large crude speculators are dumb, commercial hedgers are smart.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Sat 20 May 2017, 07:05:37

So when is this tremendous oil shortage supposed to get off the ground?
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby creedoninmo » Sat 20 May 2017, 07:12:25

Since 2008 the downward momentum in oil price has apparently been occurring in waves and we are due for another wave down. Which wave will take us out. Wild guess 2022. Maybe we will see the first signs of oil shortages with the next wave down in oil price.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Sat 20 May 2017, 08:00:41

Cog wrote:So when is this tremendous oil shortage supposed to get off the ground?


When is peak oil supposed to happen?

Answer that, then you will have some idea when the production cliff occurs.

Assuming a 10 year error in the notional peak, it would estimate the production crash to happen before 2030 but likely not in the next 10 years. So you cornies are all safe and secure, for now.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby creedoninmo » Sat 20 May 2017, 08:13:19

Oil production follows the economy; it does not lead.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 20 May 2017, 08:27:04

creed - "Since 2008 the downward momentum in oil price has apparently been occurring in waves". From late 2008 oil prices increased from $30/bbl to $90/bbl in 2014. In fact, adjusted for inflation, the price of oil has consistently INCREASED in waves since 1998 when oil sold for less the $20/bbl. Yes, there have been price retreats over the last 20 years. But the over all trend has been oil prices increasing at a high rate that has never been experienced since the late 1970's. Very easy to see the general trend:

https://www.google.com/search?sclient=t ... C4#imgrc=_
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby creedoninmo » Sat 20 May 2017, 09:29:08

Rockman: The price dynamics before and after 2008 were different. The waves that I see are since 2008.
To Kublikhan: If the commercial enterprises are shorting oil, than obviously the crude oil speculators which to some extent are you and I, are being scammed, apparently out of ignorance. Obviously it means that the oil companies are in the know, which I have debated in my mind forever.
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