Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 22:12:12

User avatar
dohboi
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15814
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 08 Dec 2016, 11:23:46

Here is the NOAA presentation of Dec 5th that points to current La Nina conditions and a prediction for continued weak La Nina in early 2017. Contrary to other models suggesting ENSO neutral conditions.

Much of this has to do with datasets used (buoy versus satellites or combinations) and corrections made from what I can tell.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5058
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 17:01:04

New El Nino on the horizon?

Dr. Philip Klotzbach is tweeting that the latest forecast from NOAA indicates a 35% likelihood of a new El Niño by fall and a 50% chance of neutral conditions:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 6404532224
User avatar
dohboi
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15814
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 18:58:03

Maybe that El Papa you guys were talking about a wile back will happen after all?

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/sh03500i.html
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3900
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 19:04:16

The most up to date NOAA prediction (Jan 7, 2017) is indicating likely La Nina through to Feb/March and then neutral through September. They also note there is equally as likely chance of going back to La Nina as going into El Nino (at least that is what their predictive plot seems to be showing).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
This is updated monthly.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5058
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Wed 08 Feb 2017, 10:15:57

I think the el-nino and la nina events have been strongly evidenced to be geological, i.e. varying heat from the mantle thru a thin ocean floor.
peakoilwhen
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 49
Joined: Wed 08 Feb 2017, 07:53:15

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 18:12:37

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2017/ ... es/520146/
"An unusual bout of heavy rains powered by El Niño conditions have drenched parts of Peru with 10 times more rainfall than normal," El Niño conditions or the actual El Niño ?
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6889
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 20:54:58

onlooker wrote:https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2017/03/peru-suffers-worst-flooding-in-decades/520146/
"An unusual bout of heavy rains powered by El Niño conditions have drenched parts of Peru with 10 times more rainfall than normal," El Niño conditions or the actual El Niño ?


The official current forecast says conditions are neutral.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/index.shtml
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3900
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 21:17:46

Well, Peru has it's own weird thing with El Nino, apparently. Too late and drunk to get into it now. More later. Maybe.
User avatar
dohboi
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15814
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Azothius » Sun 26 Mar 2017, 15:38:03

"coastal El Nino" - heavy rains/mudslides destroy 800 Peruvian villages

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/mudslide-buries-peruvian-village-leaving-claim-46374234

Peru — Mar 25, 2017
Mudslide buries Peruvian village, leaving little to claim

In January, the residents of Barbablanca began noticing steady, unusual rains, and in early March, the downpours became worrying. For two weeks, it rained for more than six hours a day. The residents decided that if rainfall worsened and a mudslide seemed imminent, they would flee up the mountain to higher ground.

The rains pummeling Peru, brought about by a warming of Pacific Ocean waters that climatologists are calling a "coastal El Nino," have left 85 dead, crippled the nation's infrastructure, ruined thousands of fields of crops and destroyed 800 villages, most much like Barbablanca.


Peru is expected to spend at least $3.75 million in repairing bridges and roads, according to the Central Bank, but the economic toll is still accumulating. Another two weeks of rain are forecast and the state meteorological agency expects the ocean warming causing the storms to continue through April.

"This really is the worst disaster for the people of northern Peru in decades," said Michele Detomaso, head of the IFRC team in Peru. "Its severity - and the speed with which waters came in - surpassed the capacities of the population to cope."




https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-03-21/several-cities-peru-are-underwater-and-coastal-el-ni-o-isnt-done-yet


Several cities in Peru are underwater, and the 'coastal El Niño' isn't done yet

Peru - March 21, 2017
The precipitation has been caused by what scientists call a “coastal El Niño,” a localized version of the hemispherewide condition. Unusually warm waters just off the Andean nation’s Pacific shore — up to 50 degrees warmer than normal — have triggered the rains in the world’s second-highest mountain range.

The extreme runoff has, in turn, caused devastating problems, above all in Peru’s northern regions, particularly Piura, near the frontier with Ecuador. Downtown areas of several cities, including Piura, and Trujillo, which is Peru’s second-largest urban center, have been underwater for days now.

Meanwhile, up to half a million people have been severely affected. They include some of Peru’s poorest, who made the fatal mistake of squatting on land beside gulches and canyons that open from the Andes onto the coastal plane.

Ironically, in the capital, Lima, the problem ended up being too little water, rather than too much. SEDAPAL, the local water authority, saw its treatment plants overwhelmed by unprecedented volumes of water, heavy with sediment, debris and trash.

As a result, water supplies in this city of 10 million people were cut almost entirely, without notice, from Thursday evening to Monday afternoon. That prompted long queues in the 80-degree heat as municipal water trucks stopped at street corners to fill buckets, bottles and even plastic bathtubs for locals. There were some reports of scuffles and fights in some of the worst-affected neighborhoods.

There has also been a rush on bottled water in supermarkets while the prices of some food staples have soared, with roads into Lima and other major population centers along the coast having been cut off.
Azothius
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri 24 Jul 2015, 14:21:59

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 26 Mar 2017, 16:22:34

We are getting tastes now of potential impacts of climate change. Not pleasant.
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6889
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby WildRose » Fri 19 May 2017, 12:59:18

It looks like we are back into an El Nino cycle this summer. Who knows how long it will last? It's going to create unusual weather-forecasting circumstances, as we have never before, at least in our records, gone back into an El Nino cycle so soon after a very strong El Nino (2015-2016). The ocean temperatures didn't get a chance to cool down after that El Nino, and the heat in the ocean now combined with the heating that will occur over the next year is what will produce unusual weather patterns.

So, as we head into summer the drivers of our weather pattern will interact with each other in a way that we have not observed as long as reliable records of global temperatures have been kept.

In a typical seasonal forecast, we use a technique called the “analogue method”, where we look back through history to find years that had global patterns that were similar to our current pattern and study the weather that was associated with those patterns. This can give us very useful information on how the upcoming months might play out.

However, in a year this atypical, the forecast process is even more challenging as we seek to determine how the different pieces of the puzzle will fit together and interact with each other.


https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/ ... ths/82391/
User avatar
WildRose
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1865
Joined: Wed 21 Jun 2006, 02:00:00

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 19 May 2017, 13:24:50

I wonder how they are discerning El Nino from the extra warmth now present?
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6889
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby WildRose » Fri 19 May 2017, 17:14:01

onlooker wrote:I wonder how they are discerning El Nino from the extra warmth now present?


Good question, onlooker. I wonder if that's one of the "different pieces of the puzzle" that they're referring to? They just seem to acknowledge that there's "a lot of lingering warmth" from the previous El Nino cycle and that it's never happened like this before, and that it will affect global temperatures.
User avatar
WildRose
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1865
Joined: Wed 21 Jun 2006, 02:00:00

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 19 May 2017, 21:49:17

Maybe the El Papa really has begun, but it will take a decade or longer to confirm that.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3900
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 19 May 2017, 22:23:31

Good points.

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/05/17/ ... ent-115180

This was the hottest April in recorded history...

Flies in the kitchen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CDLCr0fxOQ
User avatar
dohboi
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15814
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Previous

Return to Environment

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: dohboi and 9 guests