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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 10 May 2017, 17:24:29

This effect is trivial in the Arctic. Any CO2 drawdown is not worthy of discussion. They make it sound like there will be a negative net greenhouse gas release. This is utter BS.


Just making that comment without reading the paper? Their contention is based on actual gas flux measurements:

CO2 Flux and Net Global Warming Potential Flux on the WSM.

Within the shallow-water gas seep field, pCO2 in the surface water was substantially less than in the surrounding area (Figs. 2 C and D and 5A) and correlates negatively with methane concentration (r2 = 0.61; SI Appendix, Fig. S4). These undersaturated pCO2 values support a CO2 influx rate of −33,300 ± 7,900 μmol·m−2·d−1 (Table 1), which is about twice that of the surrounding background area (−16,000 ± 6,000 μmol·m−2·d−1) and more than 1,900 times greater than the efflux of methane (17.3 ± 4.8 μmol·m−2·d−1). Taking into account the 25 times greater global warming potential of methane relative to CO2 for a 100-y timescale on a per unit mass basis (18), the strongly negative CO2 flux at the seep offsets the positive effect of methane expelled by a factor of 231 despite methane’s greater global warming potential. Even on a 25-y timescale, for which methane has stronger GWP of 84 (18), the cooling effect of CO2 uptake is 69 times greater than methane’s warming effect. Our comparisons consider only the dissolved phase gas fluxes. However, hydroacoustic imaging (Fig. 1C) and bubble modeling (SI Appendix, Fig. S8A) suggest minimal direct bubble transport to the atmosphere. Furthermore, a recent study from the ESAS suggesting that turbulence-driven diffusive methane flux (not ebullition) is the primary transport mechanism for sea−air methane flux (17) supports our assessment that bubble transport of methane to the atmosphere is not important at this setting
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Squilliam » Wed 10 May 2017, 18:11:33

Why is it so bad to offer counter arguments? If people don't do that then it can lead people to spiral down into an irrational despair. If the only 'accurate' or 'acceptable' news is negative news then how can it not lead to an irrational belief that everything is going to fall apart RIGHT NOW?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 10 May 2017, 18:15:55

dissident wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Stimulation of CO Uptake over Shallow-Water Methane Seeps. At least two processes could be responsible for the reduced concentrations of CO2 observed over the shallow-water methane seeps: (i) Methane bubbles ascending from the seafloor dissolve methane, strip CO2 from the water column, and transport this CO2 to the sea−air interface and release it to the atmosphere (12), or (ii) a physical and/or biological mechanism stimulates photosynthesis, and thus CO2 drawdown, above the seep area.

where have we heard that before?


This effect is trivial in the Arctic. Any CO2 drawdown is not worthy of discussion. They make it sound like there will be a negative net greenhouse gas release. This is utter BS.

Any C02 drawdown is very worthy of discussion, in particular increasing photosynthetic uptake. While there is no evidence of a runaway postive-feedback climate loop (contrary to the OP and endless discussion), we do know that CO2 fertilization and global greening has already changed global ecology. As per Gaia's Rule :) 8)
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 11 May 2017, 00:17:16

further on the study quoted above:

... In these limited zones, the atmospheric benefit from CO2 sequestration is about 230 times greater than the warming effect from methane emissions.

But whether the findings apply to ocean seeps in other parts of the world is still a big question. Svalbard is in many ways a bellwether. Some methane seeps occur because the hydrates there are barely stable, and can be upset by slight changes in temperature and pressure.

Globally, methane hydrate reservoirs may hold as much as one-third the carbon content of all fossil fuels. And with similar seeps along continental margins worldwide, there has been growing concern that methane emissions will dramatically increase as oceans warm.

But Pohlman says one can’t count on the methane fertilizing effect being the same everywhere.

Even in his study area, it’s apt to change with the seasons. He notes that his team’s data were collected in the constant sunlight of Arctic summer. During the dark polar night, photosynthesis would drop to nearly nothing, and methane emissions wouldn’t be offset by declining CO2.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 18 May 2017, 11:51:55

https://thinkprogress.org/alaskas-vicio ... f7aec95fc7

The ‘ancient carbon’ of Alaska’s tundras is being released, starting a vicious warming cycle
“This is ancient carbon, thousands and millions of years old.” It’s being released “much earlier than we thought.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Thu 18 May 2017, 12:00:50

Has it occurred to you yet, that all the carbon on the planet is millions of years old? Actually billions but I won't quibble about that.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 18 May 2017, 12:02:19

Cog wrote:Has it occurred to you yet, that all the carbon on the planet is millions of years old? Actually billions but I won't quibble about that.

???
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Thu 18 May 2017, 12:03:55

onlooker wrote:
Cog wrote:Has it occurred to you yet, that all the carbon on the planet is millions of years old? Actually billions but I won't quibble about that.

???


You seems distressed by the carbon cycle. How can I help?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 18 May 2017, 12:13:49

Cog, the carbon cycle is very different from releasing massive amounts of carbon practically at once. The more climate erudite posters here will confirm this
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 19 May 2017, 00:13:56

Good point (as usual), ol.

We are re-introducing massive amounts of carbon that had been safely sequestered outside of the natural carbon cycle, back into circulation. And it is, of course, wreaking havoc with pretty much all systems on the planet. There's no way to get that across to some folks, apparently, though.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby ozcad » Fri 19 May 2017, 10:21:45

Ek-chew-elly Cog is right. Nearly all of Earth's carbon was built in our precursor supernova.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 19 May 2017, 12:42:46

Did we get derailed here? We are talking about the dangerous amount of carbon in the atmosphere primarily.

Yes, the total amount of carbon is probably pretty fixed otherwise unless we get struck by an asteroid.

The beautiful thing about the carbon cycle is that it is a giant complex loop of an essential critical ingredient that functions largely as a thermostat AND as the raw material for life.

Probably Water and Carbon are the two most interesting materials of our biosphere, both associated with climate as well as the basic building blocks of life.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 19 May 2017, 14:20:46

We have liberated hundreds of billions of once-safely-sequestered carbon back into the biosphere, atmosphere and ocean.

The portion is the poison.

That much of almost anything would be disruptive.

That much of what is mostly emerging as CO2 and methane, both greenhouse gasses, means it is essentially a planet-destroying event--quickly moving the planet outside of ranges within which most species alive today evolved in, including the species homo sapiens (so called).

And speaking of homo not generally being particularly 'sapiens'...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-39971667

China claims breakthrough in mining 'flammable ice'

What could possibly go wrong??!!
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 19 May 2017, 15:20:40

ozcad wrote:Ek-chew-elly Cog is right. Nearly all of Earth's carbon was built in our precursor supernova.

Yes. But the actual amount of carbon that exists isn't the key issue. As is often stated, it's the net liberated carbon that matters. All the gold was produced by supernovas too. The sequestered carbon is no more of an issue for AGW than undiscovered gold, IF it remains sequestered.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 19 May 2017, 17:29:22

For those carbon challenged individuals consider your lungs. They have these small fine cilia that move in coordination to keep your lungs clean. Think of free carbon like dust in the air. With normal levels of particulates in the air your lungs are designed perfectly to sequester this dust with the cilia and mucous. Now when a cigarette smoker smokes a pack a day he overloads his lungs with particles and his cilia can no longer function. They become overwhelmed with free dirt particles beyond which they can clean up. Particles build up, you get smokers cough and cancer and die.

This is a good analogy for CO2 (free carbon) in our atmosphere. All those sinks that normally sequester this carbon like algae in the seas and forests on land are not enough to keep that amount of free carbon in balance due to the chain smoking equivalent of our industrial civilization and the CO2 builds up, the planet warms up and we get the equivalent of a smokers cough or cancer, but on a systemic level. This analogy is maybe weak in the sense that our atmosphere is not getting sick, it is just no longer holding the free carbon in an equilibrium and it is now rising. Our planet is just doing its thing heating up and melting ice caps because of the global warming that this causes. What will get sick are all those species that live within the normal temperature ranges that you find when the free carbon levels are held in relative equilibrium. The fossil record shows historical variations.

The fossil record has no accurate equivalent of what industrial civilization is doing. Industrial civilization is like the chain smoker that used to smoke only a pack a day 100 years ago and is now smoking 5 packs a day and will continue to do so for the next hundred years. Smoking cigarettes is a tough addiction but curable. Industrial civilization is also a tough addiction for consumer crazed kudzu apes and the cure is also not easy.

I guess we can continue to carry on the analogy and speculate what is the equivalent of cancer for our industrial civilization? Go ask the Overshoot Predator, I am tired of typing
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dissident » Fri 19 May 2017, 18:30:42

Carbon sinks are nonlinear functions of the carbon burden in the atmosphere and oceans. This aspect is very poorly known and I have seen professionals assume fixed relaxation times for atmospheric CO2, which is equivalent to the assumption that the sinks always expand together with the CO2 burden. In fact, the opposite is true. The primary global CO2 sink, the oceans, are warming and transitioning from a net CO2 sink to a net CO2 source. On land, deforestation and drought stress are acting similarly: regions that used to be net CO2 sinks can become net CO2 sources.

So the atmosphere and oceans are not a vast toilet where humanity can dispose of its waste. It comes back, and with heavy interest increasing every year on the "debt" burden.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 20 May 2017, 08:35:43

dissident wrote:Carbon sinks are nonlinear functions of the carbon burden in the atmosphere and oceans. This aspect is very poorly known and I have seen professionals assume fixed relaxation times for atmospheric CO2, which is equivalent to the assumption that the sinks always expand together with the CO2 burden. In fact, the opposite is true. The primary global CO2 sink, the oceans, are warming and transitioning from a net CO2 sink to a net CO2 source. On land, deforestation and drought stress are acting similarly: regions that used to be net CO2 sinks can become net CO2 sources.

So the atmosphere and oceans are not a vast toilet where humanity can dispose of its waste. It comes back, and with heavy interest increasing every year on the "debt" burden.



Good points dissident. There are different audiences here. My post was intentionally meant to use an analogy specifically for those carbon challenged individuals who are confusing total carbon from free carbon. Believe me, there are still a lot of folks out there who haven't even gotten to first base on this topic. Your points about the carbon sinks not being linear are one of those important variables and represent a still unknown factor in how this will effect CO2 rise if continued deforestation and warming oceans decrease carbon sequestration. For those carbon challenged individuals who are just trying to wrap their heads around this topic, once you add complexity like non linear carbon sequestration into the discussion what ends up happening is that these folks shut down. The goal would be that your comments would increase concern but unfortunately we very often see this washing of the hands on the topic when dozens of varables start being added to the dynamics, everything from methane hydrates, positive feedbacks from melting permafrost, black carbon, ocean acidification etc. etc. etc.

Instead of increasing concern what I think often happens is that there is a reflex that simply goes something like this....." this topic is far too complex to model and make any accurate predictions....better to just let time resolve this instead of trying to accurately predict"...

I have to confess a bit of this position..

And then you consider that even when you get politicians and economists on board you have this embedded 7.5 billion with all their needs and wants and the inertia of their accumulated daily energy requirements. When you start considering this on top of all the complexities of the science you then become very quickly overwhelmed I am certainly overwhelmed!

The overwhelming nature of the complexity on top of the challenge of social adaptation and replacing fossil fuels with alternatives makes folks desperate, desperate to hold on to some vague hope that we don't quite have the science right and that there is still resiliency in our biosphere that will prevent a runway global warming from happening.

I am not coming to any specific conclusions with these comments other than what I often state which is that these inflection points we often hope for where our society will change course are actually in front of our face all along. We will continue exactly on the course we are on until these external feedbacks, these environmental feedbacks, start exerting enough pressure to force and coerce some form of last minute or too late adaptation.

In this regard I always end up seeing climate change as one of these agents that correct human overshoot. That we will drag into extinction countless other species is a testament of our hubris but frankly I see no other outcome.

It is very despairing.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 29 May 2017, 10:19:22

Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 71930/full

Abstract:

New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well-mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide.

Methane's RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750–2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m−2 to 0.61 W m−2) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value.

We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO2 and N2O; for N2O forcing, the CO2 overlap can be as important as the CH4 overlap. The 1750–2011 CO2 RF is within 1% of IPCC's value but is about 10% higher when CO2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario.


(my emphasis; thnx to nicibiene at ASIF for this)
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 29 May 2017, 16:32:26

Lovely, with tens of thousands of leaky pipelines and homes using old fashion pilot lights that don't work all that efficiently at preventing leaks. I have lived in apartments where the stove pilot lights frequently went out, allowing the methane to mix with the air and blow outside any time a door or window was opened.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby kiwichick » Mon 29 May 2017, 20:15:45

Yeah thanks D.......especially relevant to New Zealand ......as approximately half of our total GHG emissions are from our agricultural sector.

Our Ag scientists are working on it ......but obviously this new information just makes their work more difficult and more urgent!!
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