Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Miocene Anthropocene Future

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 15:34:42

Cid_Yama wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
Cid_Yama wrote:
The Permian-Triassic boundary is where we are headed.


We're currently putting about 3 ppm of of CO2 into the atmosphere each year. At current rates it will take another 300-500 years to get to the CO2 levels seen at the P-T extinction event.


But we are not talking just CO2, nor linear change. Which makes your comment rather clueless and irrelevant at best.


Let's include my whole quote shall we. You just deleted my comment and ignored it, repeating the same nonsense.

CO2 and other GHGs contributing to rapid warming, and Abrupt Climate Changes in global systems which we are already in the midst of.

Also, the Sun was much dimmer at the time of the PTB. Far less GHGs are needed to get the same effect.

And NOT just GHGs and warming but dramatic abrupt changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation as well as precipitation tracks and rates. And the rate of changes, far surpassing anything before seen in the paleo record. The whole climate system and biosphere are in upheaval. And this is just the beginning.

Yes, you are correct in that I am clueless as to how you are agreeing with me.

This is happening now, not 300 to 500 years from now. And with the changes that are already taking place, the PTB might prove to be a piker compared to what the planet is about to experience. There are no corollaries with the rate of change we are seeing, in the history of the planet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siWCXOypJh4
Last edited by Cid_Yama on Fri 28 Apr 2017, 16:09:24, edited 1 time in total.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
User avatar
Cid_Yama
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6715
Joined: Sun 27 May 2007, 02:00:00
Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 16:07:08

Cid_Yama wrote:Yes, you are correct in that I am clueless as to how you are agreeing with me.


OK. Can't argue with that.

We agree again.

Cheers! :)
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 19749
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 16:30:00

Plant, you are no fun anymore since you changed sides.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRMuzjyoMRg
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
User avatar
Cid_Yama
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6715
Joined: Sun 27 May 2007, 02:00:00
Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 16:41:01

Cid_Yama wrote:Plant, you are no fun anymore since you changed sides.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRMuzjyoMRg


I never changed sides.

We just used to argue because you thought Obama was going to stop the seas from rising and save the world from global warming, and I never did.

Image
Tell you what---I declare a truce between us.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 19749
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 16:52:01

...because you thought Obama was going to stop the seas from rising and save the world from global warming


No, I never did. Obama was a sellout from day one. Being anti-corporate and anti-globalization did not make me a Liberal (Liberals are almost as pro-corporate as Conservatives), just a Progressive. But ok.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
User avatar
Cid_Yama
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6715
Joined: Sun 27 May 2007, 02:00:00
Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 18:17:46

If we could all avoid having every single discussion devolve into political wrangling...

The emphasis should not just be on the Miocene (or whatever) period we are heading to.

It should also be on the rate at which we are getting there.

We are changing the planet faster than any period in the geological record since complex life began.

That rate of change versus the relatively slow shifts of the past is the difference between someone lobbing you a softball and having a cannonball blasted at you from a a few inches from your chest.
User avatar
dohboi
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15845
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 18:27:49

"We are changing the planet faster than any period in the geological record since complex life began."

Does that include when the asteroid hit the earth? Or when the Reptillian Masters arrived? yikes
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25046
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 21:39:10

Although you might assume a more rapid and dramatic change due to asteroid impact, the sulfate loading was only about 100 times that of Pinatubo followed by a rapid recovery at the K-T boundary.

We use one-dimensional (1D) atmospheric models coupled to a sulfate aerosol model to investigate climate forcing and short-term response to stratospheric sulfate aerosols produced by the reaction of S-bearing gases and water vapor released in the Chicxulub impact event. A 1D radiation model is used to assess the climate forcing due to the impact-related loading of S-bearing gases. The model suggests that a climate forcing 100 times larger than that from the Pinatubo volcanic eruption is associated with the Chicxulub impact event for at least 2 years after the impact.

Overall, although the climate perturbation to the forcing appears to be relatively large, the geologic record shows no sign of a significant long-term climatic shift across the K/T boundary, which is indicative of a fast post-impact climatic recovery.

link

Not even in the same ballpark as today. 2 years of cooling. Long enough to wipe out a good percentage of cold-blooded creatures, but no real long term affect on climate.

Thanks for playing.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
User avatar
Cid_Yama
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6715
Joined: Sun 27 May 2007, 02:00:00
Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 22:32:15

And before you mention the Toba super-volcano, That also has been found to be equivalent to about 100 Pinatubo's, and also resolved quickly with no long term impact on the climate.

The simulated temperature changes in those areas that were inhabited by humans suggest thermal discomfort, but not a real challenge for survival. Precipitation is reduced in all regions during the first two years but recovers quickly thereafter. Some catchments in these regions (Ganges/Brahmaputra, Nile), experience an over-compensation in precipitation during the third to fifth post-eruption years which is also reflected in anomalously strong river runoffs. Change in vegetation composition may have created the biggest pressure on humans, who had to adapt to more open space with fewer trees and more grasses for some decades especially in the African regions. The strongest environmental impacts of the YTT eruption are simulated under interglacial background conditions suggesting that the climate effects of the YTT eruption did not impact humans on a major scale and for a period long enough to have dramatic consequences for their survival.

link


The largest supervolcano eruption of the past 2.5 million years was a series of explosions of Mount Toba on the Indonesian island of Sumatra about 75,000 years ago. Researchers say Toba spewed out a staggering 700 cubic miles (2,800 cubic kilometers) of magma, equivalent in mass to more than 19 million Empire State Buildings. By comparison, the infamous blast from the volcanic Indonesian island of Krakatoa in 1883, one of the largest eruptions in recorded history, released about 3 cubic miles (12 cubic km) of magma.

About the same time the eruption took place, the number of modern humans apparently dropped cataclysmically, as shown by genetic research. People today evolved from the few thousand survivors of whatever befell humans in Africa at the time. The giant plume of ash from Toba stretched from the South China Sea to the Arabian Sea, and in the past investigators proposed the resulting volcanic winter might have caused this die-off. [Countdown: History’s Most Destructive Volcanoes]

However, recently scientists have suggested that Toba did not sway the course of human history as much as previously thought. For instance, prehistoric artifacts discovered in India and dating from after the eruption hinted that people coped fairly well with any effects of the eruption.

Now researchers have found that the evidence shows Toba didn’t actually cause a volcanic winter in East Africa where humans dwelled.

“We have been able to show that the largest volcanic eruption of the last two million years did not significantly alter the climate of East Africa,” said researcher Christine Lane, a geologist at the University of Oxford.

When the researchers investigated algae and other organic matter from the layer that contained the ash from Toba, they saw no evidence of a significant temperature drop in East Africa. Apparently, “the environment very quickly recovered from any atmospheric disturbance that may have occurred,” Lane said.

As for what might explain the near-extinction humanity apparently once experienced, perhaps another kind of catastrophe, such as disease, hit the species. It may also be possible that such a disaster never happened in the first place — genetic research suggests modern humans descend from a single population of a few thousand survivors of a calamity, but another possible explanation is that modern humans descend from a few groups that left Africa at different times.

link

Sorry Newfie, that takes asteroid impact and super-volcano off your list of things to hope for, to save us from abrupt climate change. (although either might delay things awhile.)
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
User avatar
Cid_Yama
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6715
Joined: Sun 27 May 2007, 02:00:00
Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 29 Apr 2017, 11:17:01

dohboi wrote:
The emphasis should not just be on the Miocene (or whatever) period we are heading to.

It should also be on the rate at which we are getting there.


Please read thread before posting-----there are multiple posts on this very topic above.

My estimate was 300-500 years based just on an extrapolation of current rates of CO2 emissions, while Cid's estimate took into account solar variance etc. and was much much faster.

So----What is your estimate of the rate we are getting there?

Cheers!
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 19749
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 29 Apr 2017, 12:37:39

Somehow I'm not getting through.

I'm saying it's not about 'getting there' so much as how fast we are changing.

Our 'rate' is already 'there.'
User avatar
dohboi
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15845
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 29 Apr 2017, 18:03:02

dohboi wrote:
I'm saying it's not about 'getting there' so much as how fast we are changing.

Our 'rate' is already 'there.'


You are 100% right that climate is changing much more rapidly now then during most past geologic periods. However, the climate has changed at even higher rates in the past during a few extreme events.

The transition into the Younger Dryas cold period took less than 10 years, for a rate of about -1°C per year.

The transition out of the Younger Dryas and back to warm conditions took less than 20 years, and would've had a slightly lower rate.

The K-T boundary, recording the impact of a giant bolide, changed global climate in about ca. 1 day, an almost inconceivably high rate of climate change.

The current anthropogenic global warming, for comparison, began with the widespread combustion of fossil fuels and the release of CO2 ca. 175 years ago, but probably really didn't get going until the end of the Little Ice Age ca. 115 years ago. Currently climate is changing at a rate of about 0.2° C per decade.

Image
The current rate of climate change is a little less than 0.2°C per decade---much more rapidly then climate had been changing prior to Greenhouse Warming, but about 50 times slower then the natural rate of climate change seen during the Younger Dryas event.

Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 19749
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 30 Apr 2017, 00:35:36

User avatar
dohboi
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15845
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Revi » Tue 02 May 2017, 09:01:03

We are going to pass the 2 degrees, and head to around 4 or 5 degrees, and that's the best case scenario. I said this to my sister, and she thought I was being too pessimistic. I told her that that was the best case. She really wanted me to tell her that it was all going to be okay.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6636
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby sparky » Tue 02 May 2017, 09:55:37

.
@ Revi
"....We are going to pass the 2 degrees...." ?????
last year the rise above the reference point was 0.773 degrees Celsius ,

That's the unit used in international science papers , the USA is the only country still using Fahrenheit
( well there is the Bahamas and Belize also )
User avatar
sparky
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3221
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dissident » Thu 04 May 2017, 08:36:31

sparky wrote:.
@ Revi
"....We are going to pass the 2 degrees...." ?????
last year the rise above the reference point was 0.773 degrees Celsius ,

That's the unit used in international science papers , the USA is the only country still using Fahrenheit
( well there is the Bahamas and Belize also )


It is rather clear that Celsius is the unit used in these threads since no science paper uses Fahrenheit. Also, the warming since 1850 is about 1.4 C

Image
User avatar
dissident
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4770
Joined: Sat 08 Apr 2006, 02:00:00

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby sparky » Thu 04 May 2017, 09:06:29

.
If you want to quote a source , I suggest you go to the original
https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temp ... UT4-gl.dat
any reference to 1850 is somewhat spurious , beside some very real concern on the data , by scientist agreement
the global temperature reference is the means of the years 1951~1980
User avatar
sparky
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3221
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 04 May 2017, 09:30:47

It is, indeed, too bad that there are so many reference points. But the default in most discussions is more like dis's than sparky's. And that's the one that makes most sense to use. We want to know how much we've changed the climate since we first started putting substantial quantities of climate changing GHGs into the atmosphere. Including years up to 1980 for such purposes is rather ridiculous (though perfectly legitimate, of course, for other purposes).
User avatar
dohboi
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15845
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 19 May 2017, 11:14:58

Image

http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/pubman/item/e ... 11_neu.pdf

Middle Miocene Climate Evolution:
The Role of Large-Scale Ocean Circulation
and Ocean Gateways

by M. Krapp

"Bis zum Ende der Welt" S. 7 :!:
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2800
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Revi » Fri 19 May 2017, 12:25:39

I said we are going to blow by the 2 Degrees C that is touted as something we want to avoid. I don't exactly know when, but we are at 1.4 now, and headed there at the very least. Kevin Anderson said probably 5 years ago that we need an 80% reduction in CO2 causing gasses in order to keep under 2 degrees. Do you see that happening?

We are at 407 at least right now. That means that all the ice that wasn't here at the beginning of the Pleistocene will be gone. Greenland only accumulates snow at between 600 and 1200 meters. That means that when it all melts Greenland can't possibly get it's glaciers back, because whatever rock is underneath all that glacier isn't taller than 600 meters.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6636
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Previous

Return to Environment

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests