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Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 06:58:39

pstarr wrote:
shortonoil wrote:Your bet seems to be more about when the monetary/ financal system will take a high dive into a shallow pool than about oil, but, Good Luck.

TheHillsInfo

That is certainly a component of my confidence/bet. Though few are able/willing to admit it, the Greatest Recession ever was sparked in large part by the 2005 conventional oil peak and half-decade of $100/barrel oil (from $40). Each year the US sent an additional $300 billion overseas in oil-payments. The world is in debt and broke. Comfortable americans have no idea how low economies everywhere have already sunk.

Pstarr,may lose his bet because sucker investors & Banks keep propping up the Oil Industry and the Govt itself will try to also because the Oil Industry is the Economy so they will continue pumping full out. Remember money can be created out of thin air. That should give nobody comfort as that will mean we will deplete our remaining legacy reserves that much faster and thus reach that much faster the denouement of the Oil Industry 8O
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 07:14:22

"Comfortable americans have no idea how low economies everywhere have already sunk."

That's for sure; the latest piece is that in Venezuela people are so weak from lack of food that they aren't even rioting. I have a friend on the Ivory Coast that I chat with; she is telling me that much of the country has already reverted to something like an African Dark Ages. Of course, Americans have Detroit, and the complete collapse of a dozen or more inter-cities that they just don't mention. When controlling perception becomes more important than controlling the real world you know we are deep doo-do.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby marmico » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 07:55:54

"Comfortable americans have no idea how low economies everywhere have already sunk."

Ya, sure. World per capita GDP has increased by 1.4% per year since 1980.

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Bring on some more laughingstock from Bozo Bunsen Burner Bedford.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 08:13:58

AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote: Though few are able/willing to admit it, the Greatest Recession ever was sparked in large part by the 2005 conventional oil peak and half-decade of $100/barrel oil (from $40).


Nah. But again, until we know which alternate universe you are in today, we can't fight your phantoms, so we'll just stick with the real reasons of the 2008 recession. But feel free to modify Wiki to stop calling it the "subprime mortgage crisis".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of ... _Recession

If you read the whole wiki piece oil prices are given credit for being if not the cause but the trigger.
Economist James D. Hamilton has argued that the increase in oil prices in the period of 2007 through 2008 was a significant cause of the recession. He evaluated several different approaches to estimating the impact of oil price shocks on the economy, including some methods that had previously shown a decline in the relationship between oil price shocks and the overall economy. All of these methods "support a common conclusion; had there been no increase in oil prices between 2007:Q3 and 2008:Q2, the US economy would not have been in a recession over the period 2007:Q4 through 2008:Q3."[224] Hamilton's own model, a time-series econometric forecast based on data up to 2003, showed that the decline in GDP could have been successfully predicted to almost its full extent given knowledge of the price of oil. The results imply that oil prices were entirely responsible for the recession.[225][226] Hamilton acknowledged that this was probably not the entire cause but maintained that it showed that oil price increases made a significant contribution to the downturn in economic growth.[227]

I know people that were in the restaurant business at the time. When gas hit $3.50 their tip income dropped by more then half and they could not sell or refinance their house because there were no buyers with enough spare cash to buy and the lending rules suddenly tightened. They lost the house and all the considerable cash they had sunk into it. :(
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 08:21:06

"Pstarr,may lose his bet because sucker investors & Banks keep propping up the Oil Industry and the Govt itself will try to also because the Oil Industry is the Economy so they will continue pumping full out."

Correct, the monies being lent are covering losses, they are not expanding the industry. When yields have fallen to the point that no matter what is pumped there will not be enough finished product produced to keep the economy rolling the printing funny money game will come to an end. For the US it now needs about $540 billion per year to keep the oil flowing. The Banks are going to contribute about $300 billion of that this year. The rest will probably come from investors like pension and hedge funds via the FED money spigot.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-2 ... ling-apart

By 2019 it will take 2 barrels of crude to produce 1 barrel of finished product. Past that point any semblance to a regular economy will be getting lost. It looks like pstarr is about a year early.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 08:26:49

"Ya, sure. World per capita GDP has increased by 1.4% per year since 1980."

The Central Banks are going print us all to fabulous riches! Not!
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 08:29:58

pstarr wrote:
Observerbrb wrote:Why are you still talking about volume? The drilling and extraction of oil volumes don't really matter. What it really matters is the final amount of energy that reachs Joe the Plumber.

There are several other measures more important than total volume. The oil exporters gain wealth through oil sales and oil-field employment, and then typically subsidize oil consumption among the general population. The Export Land Model demonstrates that exports decline faster than production increases,( should read DECREASES) wealth and the ability to pay for oil is redistributed away from the importers. Hence the collapse of oil prices down from $100/barrel.

Not only does ETP show that less energy reaches the consumer, it also suggests that money spent on low quality oil production has less economic value. Less money and oil to add value to the final product. Less oil to convert NGL's into plastic goodies.

pstarr : You have cut and pasted that same argument with the same flaw before verbatim.
And if a exporting country has less oil to export ,which is true if their domestic consumption is rising and production is steady or declining, then they will need to sell it at a higher price not less. Only a glut in supply from other exporting countries can force them to sell for less.
Plenty of energy is reaching the consumer and a gallon of gas has the same BTUs as it always had and takes the plumbers truck as far as it always did.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 08:33:14

"Ya, sure. World per capita GDP has increased by 1.4% per year since 1980."

By the way, where did the other $3.5 trillion that they printed last year go? Tells us that you got it, we all need a good laugh at this point.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 08:41:01

"There are several other measures more important than total volume."

According to the EIA in the US finished product delivered has been going down for the last 13 years. What's your point? That we can run the world's IC's on the hot air that comes out of Washington? It's a possibility!

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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 08:54:14

shortonoil wrote:....
.....
Well you are right about that, but you are a brave lad to take that bet on production. It takes 50% more Shale to produce a barrel of finished product than it does light sweet crude.

Again with the fifty percent loss BS Shorty ? You really are persistent if not all that clever.
But OK let's look at your statement ,false as it is, and see what that might mean using last weeks price of $53 for WTI.
Compare a well #1 of conventional oil with a ERoEI of 9 to 1 if your statement was correct the fracking well #2 it will take 50% more energy in the form of crude for each barrel so would have a ERoEI 5.7 to 1
Well #1 produces 10 barrels and uses 1 of them to produce the other 9 and well #2 produces 10 barrels and uses 1.5 of them to produce the other 8.5 . Are you following along?
So lets move on to cost per barrel to produce these crudes. Well #1 uses $53 of oil to produce 9 for a cost per barrel for a cost per barrel of $5.88/bl and well #2 uses $79.50 to produce 8.5 barrels for a cost of $9.35/ barrel.
Both the $5.88- 9 barrels and the $9.35 - 8.5 barrels have the same API and same BTUs per barrel as far as the refinery and final customers are concerned.
Now the fracking company is not going to be selling any oil for ten dollars a barrel but a difference in production costs of $3.47 is certainly not the end of the world in a $50 to $60 price world and won't be a problem until fracked oil becomes the majority of the worlds supply.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 09:05:27

shortonoil wrote:"There are several other measures more important than total volume."

According to the EIA in the US finished product delivered has been going down for the last 13 years. What's your point? That we can run the world's IC's on the hot air that comes out of Washington? It's a possibility!

TheHillsInfo

Totally wrong yet again. :razz:
From a peak in 2004 of 7.6 million barrels a day it declined due to the recession to 6.7mbpd in 2012 and has slowly risen to 7.1 mbpd in 2016.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TUPUS1&f=A
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Cog » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 09:18:30

Simple and easily obtained facts continue to elude the ETP'ers.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 09:20:23

Cog wrote:Simple and easily obtained facts continue to elude the ETP'ers.

And simpleton thinking continues to be a hallmark of the deniers
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby marmico » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 09:28:51

According to the EIA in the US finished product delivered has been going down for the last 13 years. What's your point?

You are a retard laughingstock. You dumped the $59.99 ETP on special for $28 for the free RefineryYield bullshit.

And then you make your Bozo Bunsen Burner Bedford statement:

By 2026 world crude production will have to be 195 million barrels per day to supply the presently used quantity of finished products of 95 million barrels per day.

What a laughingstock.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 09:33:37

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-2 ... r-recovery

It is not only long, it is infinite. What is it about the Laws of Physics that is giving people such a hard time? Is the world beginning to believe that reality is coming from Twitter? After 4 years one might start to think that someone would notice that things are not working like they thought that they should? With an average concentration span of now 12 seconds that would explain it!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-2 ... ssets-2017

The CBs conjure up another $trillion, nothing to see here (literally) move along. When the world's banks have to use pretend money everything must be getting better, and better? It is like the pretend quotes that we see here. They pretend that the EIA is telling jokes, and that no one can read their data. It is known that the human brain is shrinking; maybe it is shrinking faster for some than others?

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby marmico » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 09:51:15

The CBs conjure up another $trillion, nothing to see here (literally) move along.

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has conjured nothing for almost 3 years. Stick to your new found refinery bullshit, retard laughingstock. If anything, the FED is conjuring less.

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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 10:07:54

onlooker wrote:Pstarr,may lose his bet because sucker investors & Banks keep propping up the Oil Industry and the Govt itself will try to also because the Oil Industry is the Economy so they will continue pumping full out. Remember money can be created out of thin air. That should give nobody comfort as that will mean we will deplete our remaining legacy reserves that much faster and thus reach that much faster the denouement of the Oil Industry 8O

I don't think so. The investors can't handle $60 oil now. Certainly not the consumer.

Peak oil is regional, England and Argentina still don't produce their tight shale, promised for a decade. Their infrastructure and economy will not allow it (neither has the regional collection system in place). England/Argentina are poor. The US is now poor. We just don't know yet (check out Tesla's valuation as a measure of our true wealth). Long before I heard of ETP (though I know totally get it :) sort of) I became aware of really simple economics, not the investor-class version but basic law of supply and demand
My point is that the demand>supply economic equation is broken. RM's Peak Oil Dynamic and price oscillations destroys exploration, development, and production efforts and cause regional collapses. All over the world the cost-basement of production is bumping up against the price-ceiling of consumption.

It's come home. We will never match our tight-shale production peak, while all our legacy fields are in decline. Some precipitously like the North Slope. Don't forget its inflection point, like shale.
Last edited by pstarr on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 10:18:36, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 10:16:46

Notice that Shorties and Pstarr's last posts have nothing to do with the discussion immediately above. Can't deal with being called out so try to change the subject and turn the page. Same old B^!! $#^! different page and or different thread.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 11:00:38

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-2 ... faith-opec

Here we go again! OPEC has just not been able to deliver declining inventories and they won't. The price of oil would now have to fall to $42/ barrel for the refineries to be able to recover their raw material cost, or the price of finished product would have to increase. Presently that would be $1.97 for gasoline versus its present $1.64. With the present massive inventory of finished products that does not seem likely. Without the hedge funds 1 billion barrels of futures contracts, to prop it up, oil will head back down; that is unless the Saudis can come up with another dog and pony show to sell to the hedges. Then again, the banks might fund the hedges to keep the shale fiasco alive. They have better than $300 billion at stake, and $42 oil would show up in short order as loses on their books. The end of the oil age will be entertaining, if one can keep from losing too much sleep over it.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 11:14:20

I don't think so. The investors can't handle $60 oil now. Certainly not the consumer.


You are certainly correct about that! $60 oil, and we would see refiners and distributors folding up like cardboard suit cases. But, like I said previously, the industry needs 2.5 mb/d/yr more just to stay even; just to compensate for declining yields. Even at $50 we could see one more big push, the banks have over $300 billion riding on this. You are betting on who is going to blink first: risky!
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