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Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Squilliam » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 15:06:53

For 1 million years life on earth has adapted itself to going into and out of ice ages over approximately 100,000-year cycles. We come out of ice ages in about 10,000 years, with CO2 rising 100 ppm in that time. That is a rate of increase of about 0.01 ppm/year. If we use this as a typical rate to which nature has adapted, and has done so already for at least 10 cycles, then we can determine how much faster than this we are now moving. The idea is that if we limit CO2 rise to this rate, we expect nature will adapt; the further away we move from this base rate the more difficulty nature will have adapting.


Image

The rapid industrialization sparked by WWII marked a rapid increase near 1950 that has continued, unabated, yielding a rate now more than 100 times the base rate.

This is comparable to the effect of running into a parked car, and if left unchecked, we may soon be running into a brick wall.


https://www.skepticalscience.com/SkS_An ... Kills.html

Surely the rate of change counts as chaos? Adaptation has limits when the rate of change is quite high. Try adapting to crashing into a brick wall at high speed... not nice.

Alternatively this clip is a perfect analogy for the climate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f92xD4oYx_c

Adapt to this mother nature... :cry:
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 15:10:12

True Squil, regardless of the wholesale change, the rate of change is in and of itself destabilizing to natural ecosystems
“the Hell is what we will leave behind" Ibon
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 15:22:52

As I demonstrate to my class, if I move a pen slowly toward my head, it poses little risk, since I have plenty of time to move.

If it were to be shot point blank out of a gun into my skull, not so much. (I don't actually demonstrate this part! :-D )

The only difference is rate of change.

We are firing the bullet.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 16:15:41

[Climate Chaos is] pushing some companies to Amazon’s cloud

From New Jersey to Japan, massive storms and earthquakes in recent years have instantly wiped out technical infrastructures, leaving businesses unable to retrieve critical data. Amazon Chief Technology Officer Werner Vogels told CNBC on Tuesday that companies are turning to the cloud to make sure their data is backed up and always accessible.

Speaking in an interview from the AWS Summit in San Francisco, Vogels said that banks and telecommunications companies in the Philippines have been swarming into AWS facilities in Singapore of late, “given the massive typhoons that have hit the country time after time.”


http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/18/amazon-c ... shift.html

...

and then there's

...

Image

Grounded iceberg near Ferryland, Newfoundland - see http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39632047
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 16:42:21

While the total numbers of hurricanes had not increased, the season has. It used to be June to October in the North Atlantic, now it goes into November officially. But since May now has as many storms as does November, that May - Nov will likely soon be the new official hurricane season.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 20:20:44

A few years ago I spent a couple of weeks in Renews, just down the coast from Ferryland. Ferry land is the original location picked by Lord Baltimore for his new world enclave. His second try worked out better, it's now known as simply Baltimore.

From a tourist page....
Ferryland is where George Calvert, better known as Lord Baltimore, founded the Colony of Avalon in 1621. Today, you can peer over the shoulders of working archaeologists as they uncover the foundations of houses and a cobblestone street built in the 17th century. And you can view some of the thousands of discovered artifacts at the interpretation centre.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 20:23:51

Hey, Newfie. Thanks for the history.

And I feel I may have to apologize. Someone from Newfoundland on another blog just noted that 'newf' usually refers to the dog breed. I had no idea, and did not intend to equate you with a dog (though they are quite magnificent, actually). Hope you weren't assuming that it was anything other than just my usual ignorance and laziness.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 20:32:02

No offense taken.

My other half is "Piney"

Piney (me Fat'er)
Southern New Jersey term for locals with a long history of living in the area-the "originals" some say. Direct decendants of the orginals families that settled the area. Many Piney have made a living off of the land by farming and hunting or off the water by claming, fishing. Some have been boat builders and wood carvers. Many have participated in the local blue grass music scene. Part of a rich historical tradition not understood or respected by some arrogant newcommers. I was a "city slicker" 40 years ago but those of us who respected the locals assimilated better. Pineys have plenty of reasons to be proud.

newfie (me Mutter)
Newfoundlander. (Newfoundland Canada). One of the proudest race of people in the planet. Former fishermen, but since the government shut down the fishery industry, they are still all unemployed, except for the few who run small businesses/stores or those who move away.

They are noted by their notoriously thick accent, such can be heard in expressions such as "ey by! (hey boy / You dont say!)" or "whataya at? (What are you at / What are you doing atthis moment?)"

There is also a breed of jokes called Newfie jokes which poke fun at this breed of human, but ironically enough, Newfies are the creators of such jokes.

In insult, these people have been compared to "red necks"
Jeez, yer a newfie!!

God, he must a freakin Newfie, no one can ride a moose that fast!
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 21:03:36

:-D :-D :-D

Sounds like you are a rather lucky ol' dog, after all! :)
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 00:30:50

Tanada wrote:
My biggest issue with this thread is that most people confuse WEATHER with CLIMATE. Until you have a 30 to 50 year average you do not have climate. Do you really think climate in 2017 is chaotic compared to 1986? Or even a stronger case, more chaotic than 1966? Remember you are not comparing two years, you are comparing the 30-50 year average from 30 to 50 years ago with the 30-50 year average as seen THIS YEAR.

Weather has been pretty sporadic the last 5-10 years, but I fondly recall the 1970's when the weather was pretty unusual as well. A year or a decade of unusual weather is interesting, but it is not climate.


I think an even bigger issue is waiting for it to happen, and then declaring that steps should be taken to deal with it when it's too late.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 13:25:08

Global warming accounts for tripling of extreme West African Sahel storms

The UK-based Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) has led an international team of scientists who reveal global warming is responsible for a tripling in the frequency of extreme West African Sahel storms observed in just the last 35 years.

Professor Taylor and the fellow scientists' findings—published in the journal Nature—note that further strengthening of intense storms in the Sahel known as Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) will increase the risk of more frequent and severe flooding and disease due to poor sanitation in West African cities. The findings will also this week be presented at the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union at its meeting in Vienna, Austria.

The Sahelian storms are some of the most explosive storms in the world, containing clouds that can grow to a height of 16km above the ground. In 2009 a downpour of 263mm over several hours forced 150,000 residents of Ouagadougou, in Burkina Faso, to leave their homes. The study, which has analysed trends from 35 years of satellite observations across Africa, provides unique insight into how some of the most violent storms in the world are responding to rising global temperatures.
"A total of 77 flood events have been recorded in Burkina Faso during the 31 year period from 1986 to 2016. The floods dynamic has increased in the Burkina from a frequency of 11 major events over 10 years (1.1 flood event/year) between1986 to 2005 to a frequency of 55 over 11 years (5 flood events/year) from 2006 to 2016.

"The damages are generally more important in the urban area where runoff is very important and watercourses are limited. The 2009 flood (1 September), focused in Ouagadougou, caused heavy damage in the capital. More than 50 percent of the city's territory, including the main hospital of the city, was flooded.

"In total eight people died, more than 250 houses and 670 classrooms were destroyed, the main water purification plants for the city were out of use and nearly 150,000 people were affected within and around Ouagadougou."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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