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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 19:45:39

pstarr wrote:You climate doomers are a sad sad sad bunch. :cry: The earth will abide. Not so man. Peak oil is killing us now.

A new study shows that corals around Japan are moving north at incredible speeds.

"One species has even moved an amazing 14 kilometers a year. This could mean that Ocean ecosystems could shift rapidly due to climate-change impacts such as warming seas."


The dat on that news blurb is January 2011, six years and two months ago. That is hardly what I would call a 'new' study. Even worse, I Binged all over the internet looking for the peer reviewed artcle 'soon to be published' and couldn't find any evidence it ever was published and peer reviewed.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 09:18:14

(Thanks for truth-checking p's rants, sub. Since pretty much every such investigation shows he's spewing bs, I quit the exercise long ago.)

Meanwhile:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -territory

Record-breaking climate change pushes world into ‘uncharted territory’

Earth is a planet in upheaval, say scientists, as the World Meteorological Organisation publishes analysis of recent heat highs and ice lows


“Even without a strong El Niño in 2017, we are seeing other remarkable changes across the planet that are challenging the limits of our understanding of the climate system. We are now in truly uncharted territory,” said David Carlson, director of the WMO’s world climate research programme.

“Earth is a planet in upheaval due to human-caused changes in the atmosphere,” said Jeffrey Kargel, a glaciologist at the University of Arizona in the US. “In general, drastically changing conditions do not help civilisation, which thrives on stability.”

The WMO report was “startling”, said Prof David Reay, an emissions expert at the University of Edinburgh: “The need for concerted action on climate change has never been so stark nor the stakes so high.”
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 11:11:51

The dat on that news blurb is January 2011, six years and two months ago. That is hardly what I would call a 'new' study. Even worse, I Binged all over the internet looking for the peer reviewed artcle 'soon to be published' and couldn't find any evidence it ever was published and peer reviewed.


I suggest you need some help with basic journal research then, I found the article in about a minute of searching:

Yamano, H, Sugihara, K, Nomura, K. 2011. Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures. Geoph Res Lett, V 38, 4, DOI: 10.1029/2010GL046474

Abstract: Rising temperatures caused by climatic warming may cause poleward range shifts and/or expansions in species distribution. Tropical reef corals (hereafter corals) are some of the world's most important species, being not only primary producers, but also habitat-forming species, and thus fundamental ecosystem modification is expected according to changes in their distribution. Although most studies of climate change effects on corals have focused on temperature-induced coral bleaching in tropical areas, poleward range shifts and/or expansions may also occur in temperate areas. We show the first large-scale evidence of the poleward range expansion of modern corals, based on 80 years of national records from the temperate areas of Japan, where century-long measurements of in situ sea-surface temperatures have shown statistically significant rises. Four major coral species categories, including two key species for reef formation in tropical areas, showed poleward range expansions since the 1930s, whereas no species demonstrated southward range shrinkage or local extinction. The speed of these expansions reached up to 14 km/year, which is far greater than that for other species. Our results, in combination with recent findings suggesting range expansions of tropical coral-reef associated organisms, strongly suggest that rapid, fundamental modifications of temperate coastal ecosystems could be in progress.


and as to it being out of date the authors published updated research on the same topic in a 2015 journal article

Takao S., Yamano H., Sugihara K., Kumagai N., Fujii M., Yamanaka Y. 2015. An improved estimation of the poleward expansion of coral habitats based on inter-annual variation of sea surface temperatures. Coral Reefs, 34, 1125-1137

Abstract. The poleward expansion of coral habitats has been observed along the Japanese coast since the 1930s. Previous modeling studies have projected a poleward expansion using decadal-mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the coldest months. However, this poleward expansion could be affected by the inter-annual variation of SST in the coldest months, which has not been considered before. In this study, the simulated pattern of poleward expansion was compared between cases where coral mortality was considered based on the inter-annual variation of SST and the decadal-mean SST in the coldest months. Modeled monthly mean SSTs for historical and future global warming simulations from the most recent climate projection model (MIROC4h) were used. The poleward expansion of corals simulated by considering mortality based on the inter-annual variation of SST in the coldest months better reproduced the observed poleward expansion speed compared to the simulations without such a consideration. Our results show the importance of considering coral mortality based on the inter-annual variation of seawater temperature to produce a more realistic poleward expansion of coral habitats
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 12:10:18

A thousand years from today, on the shore of the N polar ocean, one imagines a polar bear, gingerly walking across a broken coral beach, in pursuit of seals and otters, which are living offshore on rafts of floating seaweed. None of the three species is exactly as we know them today, all are evolving rapidly due to CC. All are enjoying the respite from the predations of the human species, still in decline after the oil peak. A few rusted orange traces of oxidized steel are all that mark the landscape from the Age of Oil.

Earth Abides. Both a prediction and the title of an Apocalyptic novel I still remember decades after reading.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 12:22:19

Kind of ridiculous. There won't be any polar bears in the future, nor grizzlies for that matter. Their meat is probably pretty good. Not many people either, if any at all.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 12:34:54

Doom, doom, doom. A simplistic view of the future, and almost certainly wrong. There never has been a worldwide disaster/collapse from internal forces, and likely there never will be. The worldwide disasters and mass extinctions we read in the fossil records are independent of the animals inhabiting the Earth at the time. A giant comet/asteroid/etc. strikes the Yucatan Peninsula 65 million years ago, and cashes in the chips of all the dinosaurs, who persist only as small and largely helpless birds. Multiple mega-volcanoes erupt in the Permian Age, and 90% of the life on Earth perishes. But there is no precedent for any worldwide disaster or mass extinction caused by an animal species. Unlikely there will ever be one, either. The Earth is not in peril, only the humans that live here. Whether we continue to dominate after the overshoot human population dies back, or are replaced and dominated in turn by another species, remains to be seen. But Earth Abides.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 13:01:55

We are changing basic earth patterns faster than many species can adapt. When anything close to this much CO2 gushed into the atmosphere anything like this fast earlier in the earth's history, the ensuing heating brought on most of the great mass extinction events in the history of complex life on earth.

People saying that they know for sure that 'the earth will be just fine' if they mean by that the full complexity of complex life on earth are ignorant of the history of complex life on earth (or are trying to sell you something). The fact that this religious-like faith in 'earth abiding' comes from fiction books just seals the point.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 14:14:27

KaiserJeep wrote:The reason that we free thinking individuals...


You are apparently talking about free from logic or reason. :lol:
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 14:31:18

dohboi wrote:We are changing basic earth patterns faster than many species can adapt. When anything close to this much CO2 gushed into the atmosphere anything like this fast earlier in the earth's history, the ensuing heating brought on most of the great mass extinction events in the history of complex life on earth.

People saying that they know for sure that 'the earth will be just fine' if they mean by that the full complexity of complex life on earth are ignorant of the history of complex life on earth (or are trying to sell you something). The fact that this religious-like faith in 'earth abiding' comes from fiction books just seals the point.


The Earth is not static. Whether mankind will make any significant or lasting impact upon the environment is questionable at best, probably a long shot, possibly impossible. It is hubris to believe otherwise.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 15:04:36

No, the Earth certainly is not static. Geological change inevitably has occured due to among other factors , volcanic activity triggered by tectonic shifts presumably, Sun activity, asteroid impacts etc. And this is connected to life in the context of Mass extinction events. These events were devastating to life but eventually life did recover. It seems that as long as we remain at pretty much the same distance from the Sun and our magnetic field continues operative , some form of life will continue to exist and complex life will too if besides the mentioned conditions , organisms are utilizing photosynthesis and producing oxygen. A runaway Venus effect may be unlikely on Earth. http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/history_of_the_earth
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dissident » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 17:01:08

The word "doom" is safe space word for deniers and cornucopians. When they invoke this magic spell of a word, everything becomes hunky dory and don't worry, be happy. These idiots have been indoctrinated by their paid corporate flack gurus to think that the environment is one big toilet that will forever accommodate anything we throw into it. The thought of actually taking responsibility and real conservatism induces convulsions of cognitive dissonance.

BTW, roc-tard, you still haven't offered a single reference of a physics paper that invokes consensus as an argument to back up any physical process and associated models. No such paper exists, since no such paper would make it past peer review. Lindzen should have stuck to his original line and he would have been totally correct. Trying to claim that scientists operate as a Borg Collective is patent absurdity.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 17:54:20

Actually, the constant refrain of "consensus" is the tune played by all the AGW fanboys at PO.com. The "consensus" of all the IPCC members is the biggie, according to them - even though anybody can join the organization online simply by paying dues. The evidence of this is nearby, in the PO.com archives, a lot of it used in a vain attempt to persuade ME that doom follows the burning of FF's.

Well, it might - I allow for that possibility, as unlikely as it might be. A proper and "Scientific" approach to any difficult subject demands that an attitude of skepticism be maintained. The unfortunate fact that we are still on the upslope of a 15,000 year warming trend since the Pleistocene Glacial doesn't help, it means that any confirmed evidence of simple warming must be discounted, and one has to establish an EXTRA warming above the natural warming, to prove a point about AGW.

Then there was that unfortunate fact that both Al Gore and Barack Obama believed in AGW, at least enough to campaign on the issue. Neither did anything substantive to change the AGW-caused warming if such exists - and now under the Trump administration, one has to be disproving AGW to get government R&D money, rather than endorsing the existing fanboy opinion as in the past. Perhaps people will actually start to understand now that more than anything else, the prolonged AGW controversy is political in nature.

Beyond that, the reason that the AGW fanboys are always going to lose, is that they want to shut down our electrical grid and stop burning fuel in vehicles. In other words, they want to kill more than three quarters of the humans on Earth. This is why the rest of us regard them as a lunatic fringe group.

Having said that, I am a believer in doom. The doom I believe in is the one looming in the coming century when we actually run short of coal and oil to burn, and have to make do with feeble replacement energy sources. Because AGW rises to the level of a serious but survivable condition in the worst case, with considerable evidence that says we are well below worst case temperature increases due to negative feedback mechanisms in the global climate. But barring the discovery of new and unprecedented energy sources, the oil peak, followed by the coal peak, is a form of doom difficult to avoid.

These difficulties are also political in nature. The First World countries all have to close their borders, and allow their populations to shrink for at least two centuries. No immigration, legal or otherwise. The Third World has to die back to a sustainable level, without any interference. As many as 1 billion humans MAY be able to live on our planet sustainable fashion, or as few as 125 million.

But we cannot interfere with the correction of human overshoot, or everybody everywhere on Earth dies. YES, I feel horror at the thought. We also need to hedge our bet and populate space, along with however many food species that we need, when we use computers to manage these new artificial homes and produce food within them, using the free and (for practical purposes) unlimited power available outside the atmosphere.

If anybody has better ideas than mine, I'm all ears. But whining about AGW and carbon emissions and scolding people who buy SUVs and pickup trucks is simply not working.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 18:08:56

BTW, roc-tard, you still haven't offered a single reference of a physics paper that invokes consensus as an argument to back up any physical process and associated models. No such paper exists, since no such paper would make it past peer review. Lindzen should have stuck to his original line and he would have been totally correct. Trying to claim that scientists operate as a Borg Collective is patent absurdity.


That was on another thread which I addressed. Apparently you truly are as illiterate as I suspected. Here is what was posted:
post1352818.html#p1352818
You lost the argument, roc-tard. You have not provided a single citation dealing with the physics that backs up your claim. You cited a bunch of fluff aimed at policy people (many of whom do not even have any science background) and now you make public quotes. When some media drone asks about the certainty of climate science use of the term "consensus" is an accurate empirical observation of the published literature.


this is what you said precisely
The term "scientific consensus" is one used in politics and internet fora. I have never seen this term circulated at conferences and in scientific journal articles.


to which I responded by posting a number of "scientific journal articles" that clearly use that term and now you pivot to somehow change what you originally said.

the quotes are from actual climate scientists, not from media persons. Those scientists believe there is a consensus and they seemingly have no problem speaking about it.

But that does not imply that those publications were produced by some grand "criminal" enterprise as you are insinuating.


exactly where did I "imply" that. I never did. What I am saying is your contention that the term consensus has never appeared in a scientific journal or has been used at a conference is complete and utter nonsense.

That is the opposite of the claim spouted by paid corporate whore Lindzen.


YOu haven't provided any evidence that Lindzen said anything of the kind. Your interpretation of the quote that KaiserJeep posted is complete nonsense. It is clear you need a course in remedial english.


so let's sum up, your lack of skill with the english language has firstly caused you to misinterpret the quote that Kaiser Jeep posted from Lindzen suggesting he thinks there is some sort of cabal out there doing science by consensus, which of course he never said. Next you incorrectly make some crazy interpretation of what I said, when in fact I was just pointing out that your claim the term scientific consensus had never appeared in a scientific journal article is complete and utter nonsense as demonstrated by the list of papers that use that term in the article title. But apparently you couldn't even remember what it was you said in your original post as you went off on some strange tangent after the fact regarding articles dealing with physics.

But then again given you had such a hard time finding a scientific article that pstarr referenced (which I found in less than a minute) I am not surprised you haven't come across the term "consensus" used in an article published in a scientific journal. :roll:
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 21:35:08

Somehow, this got lost in all these bloviations.

http://www.sciencealert.com/scientists- ... ate-change

"...it might already be too late to avoid a temperature rise of up to 7.36 degrees Celsius (13.25 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100."
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dissident » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 17:35:04

dohboi wrote:Somehow, this got lost in all these bloviations.

http://www.sciencealert.com/scientists- ... ate-change

"...it might already be too late to avoid a temperature rise of up to 7.36 degrees Celsius (13.25 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100."


One of the researchers behind the new study, Andrew Ganopolski from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, admits that scientists don't always agree on the level of global warming that we can expect.

"In our field of science, you cannot be definite by 100 percent," he told The Independent. "There are always uncertainties and we discuss this in the paper. If we have more and more results of this sort, then we have more reasons to be concerned."


Goose-stepping, hive mind conformity.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby Synapsid » Thu 23 Mar 2017, 16:32:20

Hi KaiserJeep,

I'm puzzled by your saying that we're still on the upslope of a 15 000-year warming after the last Pleistocene glacial. Where does that picture come from?

The pattern we see in previous interglacials is a rapid increase in temperature after a glacial ends, followed by increases in the concentrations of CO2 and methane, and then a long cooling, with ups and downs, and a gradual decrease in CO2 and methane, that leads into the next glacial. This pattern occupies something like 10 000 to 20 000 years; interglacials differ from one another.

The current interglacial started out pretty much as above but the declines in CO2 and methane slowed about 9000 and 5000 years ago, respectively. By the late 18th Century the CO2 level bottomed out but was higher than expected, and began to climb, and then about 1970 it really took off and is still rising. Warming has gone all yee-haw now but I don't see it as part of a 15 000-year warming. Help?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 23 Mar 2017, 22:36:44

Subjectivist wrote:
pstarr wrote:You climate doomers are a sad sad sad bunch. :cry: The earth will abide. Not so man. Peak oil is killing us now.

A new study shows that corals around Japan are moving north at incredible speeds.

"One species has even moved an amazing 14 kilometers a year. This could mean that Ocean ecosystems could shift rapidly due to climate-change impacts such as warming seas."


The dat on that news blurb is January 2011, six years and two months ago. That is hardly what I would call a 'new' study. Even worse, I Binged all over the internet looking for the peer reviewed artcle 'soon to be published' and couldn't find any evidence it ever was published and peer reviewed.

It may not be new, but it's good science.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38, L04601: 'Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures'

[8] Four species categories of the nine selected showed
poleward range expansion since the 1930s, whereas the other five remained stable (Figure 2), indicating no southward range shrinkage or local extinction

IE, net expansion north in the face of increasing CO2 emissions.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 23 Mar 2017, 23:11:29

It may not be new, but it's good science.


keep up with the game...I redeemed you up thread quite aways.

your welcome. :wink:
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 24 Mar 2017, 00:39:35

syn wrote:

"Hi KaiserJeep,

I'm puzzled by your saying..."

We're all pretty much puzzled by just about everything kj writes... :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby kiwichick » Fri 24 Mar 2017, 07:09:47

"puzzled" is putting it kindly!!
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