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THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: Gas demand set for first fall in 50 years

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 22 Feb 2017, 16:59:25

"Sales of sedans and other cars fell to the lowest level in six years". Which doesn't change the fact that last year 84 MILLION new ICE's hit the road. And most were not light trucks. But regardless of any improvement in fuel efficiency they still represent a significant increased component of fossil fuel consumption.
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Re: Gas demand set for first fall in 50 years

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 22 Feb 2017, 18:13:02

For <insert deity name here>'s sake, pay attention before you post. The OP was referring to natural gas, not gasoline.
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Re: Gas demand set for first fall in 50 years

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 22 Feb 2017, 18:28:00

KaiserJeep wrote:For <insert deity name here>'s sake, pay attention before you post. The OP was referring to natural gas, not gasoline.

ah, get over it already KJ. :-x :P

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Re: Gas demand set for first fall in 50 years

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 22 Feb 2017, 20:24:31

KaiserJeep wrote:For <insert deity name here>'s sake, pay attention before you post. The OP was referring to natural gas, not gasoline.


Haha, great point! I just looked for demand in subject title.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 15:14:21

From the STEO, so far we haven't seen any increase in production. My guess is flat production this year. See if I can beat them two years in row.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 73.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.4 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. This increase reverses a 2016 production decline, the first annual decline since 2005. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to rise by an average of 4.1 Bcf/d from the 2017 level.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 21:44:29

Just these past few days, construction has started on both the Rover and Leach Xpress pipelines. Combined capacity is about 4 1/2 Bcfd.
In addition, the Mariner East 2, capacity 275,000 barrels/day NGLs has begun construction, as well as another 16 inch pipeline, Mariner East 2X,, is being laid simultaneously with future capacity 250,000 bbld NGLs.

All three pipelines will be operational within a few months.

2018 should see several more large takeaways from the Appalachian Basin in service.
The Marcellus/Utica production numbers should increase significantly.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 07:00:48

coffeeguyzz wrote:Just these past few days, construction has started on both the Rover and Leach Xpress pipelines. Combined capacity is about 4 1/2 Bcfd.
In addition, the Mariner East 2, capacity 275,000 barrels/day NGLs has begun construction, as well as another 16 inch pipeline, Mariner East 2X,, is being laid simultaneously with future capacity 250,000 bbld NGLs.

All three pipelines will be operational within a few months.

2018 should see several more large takeaways from the Appalachian Basin in service.
The Marcellus/Utica production numbers should increase significantly.


All of these projects are great news for Ohio where they were doing a lot of wet gas drilling in the Utica before the price crash and though it slowed a bit in 2016 it never actually stopped or even slowed that much. My spouse has a cousin who works driving trucks in eastern Ohio and he loves the Utica projects, they have kept him working and earning a great income even as much of the rest of the sate was suffering from Kasich's incompetent leadership.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 17:47:35

Tanada

There is so much to this Appalachian Basin hydrocarbon 'story'.
Will continue to show huge impact far off into the future.

Just some of the many sub stories ...

Targeting the vast, shallower Clinton Sandstone by Enervest's has shown technical, not economic, viability.
One consequence is a few of the smaller, conventional operators are aligning in attempts to tackle this situation with eager, yet limited resources.

On a more 'out there' possibility, is the hope of capturing a great deal of oil in the Utica's oil window, which means overcoming insufficient 'drive pressure' from the reservoir. (Same general problem in the EF's shallower oil window).
An interesting outfit out of Tarreytown, NY, of all places, came up with the plans for the world's first micro, portable LNG plant.
Licensing and production was obtained by Dresser Rand, and the first unit was built and successfully tested just as DR was bought out by Siemens.
They call it LNGo.
Anyway, the Tarreytown outfit (Expansion Energy?) also came up with a waterless frac'ing procedure that uses chilled, semi liquid field gas to both frac and deliver proppant..
Never got past the conceptual stage, AFAIK, but, IF this energized type of frac fluid could be shown to work both technically and economically, the Ohio Utica would be a prime location for its implementation.
(A LNGo unit was recently shipped to a Pennsylvania outfit to capture/monetize stranded gas. No word on how it's making out).
Interesting times.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 22:53:28

coffee - Good news for sure but perhaps not the first:

SPATCO Energy Solutions, one of Galileo Technologies distributors in North America, announced the sale of the first North American Galileo Cryobox® Nano LNG-Station, to Terra Energy Group. Scheduled to be operational in early 2015, the Cryobox® will capture natural gas that would otherwise be flared off from the oil and gas fields in North Dakota, converting the well-head gas into more than 8,000 gallons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per day. Recognized worldwide as a major breakthrough in LNG production technology, the Cryobox® is a small scale, transportable LNG production plant capable of converting pipeline or well-head natural gas into LNG. The Galileo Cryobox® can be installed wherever LNG is needed. In addition to deployment in oil and gas fields, applications for this Nano LNG-Station include marine bunkering, rail, mining, heavy duty trucking and power generation.

Lots of stranded NG in the New Albany Shale in KY also.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 14:08:53

And good news for US NG producers hoping that increased exports will start seeing prices rebound:

Cheniere Energy, Inc. subsidiary Midship Pipeline Co., LLC, has proposed building a 200-mile 36-inch interstate natural gas pipeline linking the emerging STACK and SCOOP resource plays in Oklahoma's Anadarko Basin to Gulf Coast and Southeast markets, Cheniere announced Friday. "We are pleased to help facilitate a market solution to STACK and SCOOP producers as they continue to make exciting progress in this important resource basin," said Cheniere President and CEO Jack Fusco in a written statement. "Not only will the Midship Project help meet the Anadarko Basin's need for additional natural gas takeaway and serve demand along the Gulf Coast, it also demonstrates the uniquely integrated market solution Cheniere can provide by leveraging our LNG platform along the entire value chain."

Anything that helps to reduce domestic supply and increase the price of NG is greatly appreciated.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 18:08:06

Rock

One of the efforts by Aubrey McClendon over the decades was to try and stimulate end user applications for natgas as he recognized unconventional drilling/frac'ing would introduce unfathomable amounts into the marketplace.
Organizations in Pennsylvania and Ohio are doing the same with power plant matters, GTL projects, big boosting in the transport sector, etc.

Of the many issues, as you know, is the amount that will continue to be produced as associated gas and the low cost, high output wells from the Appalachian Basin which will continue for many, many decades.

If there were any way to get the environmental ideologues onboard for gas production/consumption ( pipe dream, there), many developmental issues could be resolved quickly. There was a time, somewhat recently, that natgas was "green".

The sheer amount of natgas available in this country is one of the larger, minimally recognized topics of the day.
Developed and consumed in a benign way could be enormously uplifting for all Americans.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 19:01:14

coffee - Despite the rhetoric (such as our green Euro cousins opposing Arctic drilling but the EU Commission just voting overwhelming to NOT BAN Arctic drilling) I'm confident our green Yankee cousins will not stand in the way of NG development...another source of GHG despite being "greener" then coal.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 20:33:48

Rock

One or two winters out, it's possible for a huge shift to occur regarding New England electricity production.
An almost perfect storm is brewing that was largely avoided this winter due to warmer temperatures.
Even with that, short term (10/30 minute intervals) spot wholesale juice price spiked between $200 to almost $500 MWh at the wholesale level.
Normal pricing runs about 30 bucks.
Coal was recruited for about 8% source. Huge Brayton Point coal burner shutting down in a few weeks and two up in New Hampshire are for sale. No takers.
Even the huge nuclear plant in Connecticut is reeling from poor economics and is looking for gumbint subsidies to stay afloat (like NY just did).

No question they desperately need gas pipelines, and - when that realization is on full display during future wintertime blackouts/brownouts a la South Australia, a paradigm shift embracing natgas may occur.

Either that or full on, region wide Walden Pond ...
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 09:22:08

coffee - Did you see my post a while back pointing out the increasing connection between the eastern grid and the Canadian grid? I pointed it out to our friend Revi. The critical aspect was the potential sale of a significant chunk of TransCanada renewable energy that's connected to the eastern grind: solar, wind and hydro. Interesting that TransCanada is selling these assets to help finance its acquisition of the Columbia Pipeline Group which primarily hauls NG. I suggested to Revi it might make sense for a NY utility of even the state govt to buy those assets to provide not only lower EVENTUAL prices but for security.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 10:54:48

Rock
I'll go back and read the post.
Regarding supply from Canada, the governor of Maine is attempting to get natgas into his state via Canadian pipelines and bypass New England entirely.
Their paper mills are suffering with high electric pricing and several have already closed.
(A big pulp plant in Ticonderoga, NY is staying open with a virtual pipeline of trucked in LNG).

In addition to counting on an enormous offshore wind source in the future, the NE gubmint folks are hoping on hydro sourced juice to be transmitted down to Massachusetts.
Here's where it really gets funny ...
The power transmission lines needed will be huge and traverse the entirety of New Hampshire.
NH folks already get 100% of their required juice from the Seabrooke nuclear plant and do not want the unsightly towers despoiling their forests just so their southern Masshole neighbors can watch TV on cold winter evenings.
Big, big opposition exists and is growing.
The 600 Mw Pilgrim nuclear plant was to close last year, but was given incentives to stay open for one more three year refueling cycle.
That ends after two more winters.

The numbers are pretty clear and increasingly precarious as time goes on.
The incredible efficiencies of the Combined Cycle Gas Turbines are just blowing away all new competing power sources, which is why Ohio and Pennsylvania are in the process of building a couple of dozen massive new plants.

The coming couple of winters in New England may prove very instructive to the vast population of people who have little awareness in these matters and rely upon their elected 'leaders' to act in the collective"s best interest.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 13:56:24

coffee - Exactly why despite a desperate need for an electric grid coordinating czar like our Texas ERCOT the local politics would never allow such an entity. Along with your examples: why not pipelines from PA to Maine? Obvious answer there: NY bans frac'ng but buys as much NG from PA frac'd Marcellus wells as possible but lately trying to prevent some new interstate pipelines thru their state. Of course the folks in NH might like to see a pipeline laid to them...but not crossing to Maine. And then there's Georgia being all for new pipelines coming south to them but not passing thru the state to the FL market. A market that could afford to outcompete Georgia consumers on prices. Imagine the possibility: Marcellus/Utica NG shipped from the US to a Canadian company that resells it to a Maine utility. From: hellenicshippingnews.com:

"U.S. piped gas to Canada has also been strong at about 2.5 Bcf/d, and should increase as Rover and Nexus pipelines running Marcellus/Utica shale up through southeastern Michigan into the Dawn hub in Ontario, come online, both expected in-service by the end of this year. So, ultimately by 2020, considering LNG exports to the world, piped gas to Canada, piped gas to Mexico, the U.S. will have the capacity to export over 40% of its current natural gas production...For U.S. gas producers, being able to export to the world is as vital as new domestic pipelines that can send gas to higher hub price points…the idea being to reach higher value markets."

The interesting sidebar: U.S. will have the capacity to export over 40% of its current natural gas production. A while ago some were touting the increased export of US NG as an indication of how much "abundant reserves" we have. In reality it's just a function of US consumers losing market share more then excess producion. A very different dynamic that ties in with your down-the-road-view of the situation. So again we NG producers support any effort to open up new markets that would allow us to increase the price of the NG we sell.

As always nothing personal...just business.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 15:04:05

In the volatile oil and gas industry, it has been a few years since the overall outlook has been this encouraging.

Signs lately give industry followers reasons to be optimistic. Prices are trending upward, federal approval has come for several projects and the administration of President Donald Trump was barely in office when it backed two long-stalled, controversial pipeline projects: Keystone XL and Dakota Access.

In Ohio, evidence of positive movement in the industry soon will be visible as miles of steel pipe begin to ship from the Republic Short Line rail yard in Massillon. The pipe, some sitting at the former locations for Republic Steel and Massillon Stainless facilities for nearly two years, will head to construction sites as part of the 713-mile Rover Pipeline that recently received final federal approval.

Rover's twin 42-inch pipelines will cross southwestern Stark County (Pike, Bethlehem and Sugar Creek townships) and parts of Tuscarawas and Carroll counties as it delivers up to 3.25 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day from the Utica and Marcellus shales to destinations in the Great Lakes, Midwest, Gulf Coast and Canada.

The lack of infrastructure to transport gas to out-of-state markets has been one of the biggest challenges facing Ohio's oil and gas industry.

The other challenge, of course, has been the commodity's price. The good news: Spot market prices have reached their highest levels since 2014. The still-worrisome news: Those prices remain far below peaks reached nearly a decade ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

"There is a more optimistic mood now because we just came through a real trough and hopefully we're going to see some moderate, continued increases," Mark Jordan, president of Knox Energy, an oil and gas producer based in central Ohio, said at the Ohio Oil and Gas Association's recent winter conference.

Companies continue to invest in the eastern Ohio region that is home to the oil and gas rich Utica shale rock layer thousands of feet beneath the surface.

Rex Energy has said it plans to spend up to $80 million on drilling and hydraulic fracturing of wells this year. As much as 20 percent of that money will be invested in its Utica shale holdings in Carroll County.

The company plans to complete 26 wells and begin production from 23 wells during 2017. On the flipside, Rex has said it doesn't plan to spend any money on new drilling in the Utica Shale in 2018.

So how soon until we see higher levels of drilling activity? Experts coming to Canton hope to help answer that question at the next Utica Upstream seminar. Produced in part by the Canton Regional Chamber of Commerce, the daylong session is scheduled for April 5.

We've said repeatedly there will be fits and starts with Utica shale development. People and businesses, inside and outside the industry, must take a long view.

"It's great to see excitement in here," Shawn Bennett, executive vice president of the Ohio Oil and Gas Association, said at the group's conference. "Last year was very solemn. People were worried, very worried."

We join the industry in embracing the encouraging signs of late.

The Repository, Canton


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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 15:47:07

sub - I've heard there's some questioning going on: "Why do those folks in Ohio have some of our Canadian NG under their land?" LOL.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 21:34:55

ROCKMAN wrote:sub - I've heard there's some questioning going on: "Why do those folks in Ohio have some of our Canadian NG under their land?" LOL.



Molon labe....Canadians. Ohio squirrel hunters dare you!
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 10:33:34

Interesting dynamic developing with respect to LNG exports from Canada. And a potential impact on US NG prices and supplies that might not seem initially obvious. First:

"Canadian natural gas supply currently exceeds domestic consumption. Canada’s natural gas markets are heavily integrated with those of the United States and Canada exports its surplus natural gas to the U.S. while importing smaller amounts from the U.S. into Central Canada in return. While some companies have proposed exporting natural gas to overseas markets by liquefying it (LNG), any projects that are actually built are not likely to be operational until towards the end of the decade.".

Second, towards those overseas Canadian LNG exports. IOW how long before those damn Asian buyers get their hands on our US NG that happens sit under Canada:

Reuters - Transcanada Corp has secured shippers' commitment for a pipeline associated with Malaysian state-owned oil company Petronas' pending Pacific NorthWest liquefied natural gas terminal in western Canada and will seek early construction, the company said on Monday.

Government construction approval will allow the company to start building most of the North Montney Mainline before Petroliam Nasional Bhd, or Petronas, decides whether to commit to the project, TransCanada said in a statement.

North Montney was to connect producers to TransCanada's proposed Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Project to provide gas to Pacific NorthWest, as well as to existing systems for the western market, according to the company. The Canadian government has green-lit the $27.25 billion LNG project in northern British Columbia.
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