Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
creedoninmo wrote:It probably wont last as all it would take is a change in the weather or a change in consumer confidence and activity to move demand up or down and upset the apple cart. And of course turmoil in oil producing regions could cut production at any time.
I think that about 2 more years should provide the proof of whether the ETP model is accurate or not. When oil reached too high a price in 2008 the house building industry failed. Currently Venezuela and Syria have failed. What dominoes fall in the future. Maybe the dollar as world reserve currency within five years. Yes I'm a doomer.
vtsnowedin wrote: While some economies have and will continue to collapse as oil and other forms of energy get harder to come by I don't think they all will. The USA with enough domestic production to meet real needs should be one of the winners if we play our cards right.
godq3 wrote:vtsnowedin wrote: While some economies have and will continue to collapse as oil and other forms of energy get harder to come by I don't think they all will. The USA with enough domestic production to meet real needs should be one of the winners if we play our cards right.
World energy consumption rate must increase every year. It doesn't matter which specific countries do it. If world's energy consumption rate drops for longer than couple months, it's all over.
World energy consumption rate must increase every year.
farmlad wrote:Short Back to the subject of rejenerating soils I recommend listening to these experts https://vimeo.com/search?q=kcsaac My experience in rejenerating soils on my small farm in southern Michigan as well as in Paraguay has been based on their consepts. To speed up the process with more inputs like compost watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAn5YxL1PbM
Exactly. We saw the same thing with adherents of the ecat. Every time a goal post was missed Rossi just moved the goal post. And the hardcore swallowed it hook, line, and sinker. In the years ahead when oil prices fail to fall to the level of the "Maximum Affordability Price" short will just spin some BS, make a new graph, and continue to peddle his model. Wash, rinse, repeat.vtsnowedin wrote:Two years won't prove anything to the adherents, they will just move the goal posts.
shortonoil wrote:"Exactly. We saw the same thing with adherents of the ecat."
We make money with our consulting, with our research reports, and by trading. Our clients also make money by following our advice. How are your clients doing?
AND, like I said above be very cautious of long trades on petroleum and its products, the odds are not in your favor with that kind of position.
shortonoil wrote:In recent graphs we have shown how refinery yields have declined; at least since the EIA began publishing data on refinery inputs and outputs. From 2005 to 2015 they fell 32%. NOTE: Refinery yield is not the same as crack spread, they are entirely different measurements. One can not be used for the other Because 85% of a refinery's cost is the cost of the crude that they use a decline in yield must show up as an increase in their production cost. Also, because the industry is very competitive their profit margin on gross sales is very thin. These increases could not have been coming out of their profits. As demonstrated in the graph below those extra costs have been passed on to the consumer. In 1994 the cost of gasoline was 29% of the cost of the crude. Over the years that rose to a maximum of 73% in 2010 and fell to 46% in 2015 after the 2014 price crash. The consumer has been paying for the cost of declining refinery yields.
Beginning in October of 2016 US gasoline consumption began to decline. As our Maximum Affordability function indicates crude has reached the maximum price that the economy can afford to pay for it. That is also showing up in gasoline sales. Even though the gasoline/ WTI ratio has declined there is very little room for upward momentum in gasoline prices.
This is a very important point for anyone trading gasoline futures, ETFs, ETNs, or options on any of the these. There is very little room for upward movement, and a lot for downward. Trade carefully, and hedge your bets:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... us_dpg&f=a
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/we ... endixa.pdf
Please note that in the graph below 1900 is year zero. The year 2000 would be 100 (1900 +100). 2020 would be 120 etc.
click to enlarge
shortonoil wrote:The trolls are the Judas Goats; they are there to distract as the sheep are led to slaughter. The industry is now losing $2.7 trillion per year on their full life cycle production costs. If like the FED, the economy is leveraged out 50 to 1 we should be seeing the fireworks going off fairly soon. Expect to see sometime in the near future like what has already happened in Europe; bail-ins - where they simply go in, and take the money out of your account. That was just a dress rehearsal of what is to come. As a safety precaution it would be a good idea to have a month or two of income in cash, your digestive system is likely to thank you.
The oil industry is failing all around the world; just imagine what will happen when crude falls to $25:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-1 ... t-deficits
We are watching as the Titans pull each other to pieces, it is happening all across Europe and the US. There will be much, much more of this as the oil age comes to its conclusion. The battle for the remaining wealth and power will be enormous, and the best side to choose will be your own. Unfortunately, we are now living in "interesting times".
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