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The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby donstewart » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 15:07:21

Yoshua
I like the way you phrase your post, as it emphasizes the role of diesel.

A question about the refinery study in Brazil.
'The overall exergy efficiency observed is 94.4%. This result demonstrates that only a small percentage of the exergy input (~14 GW) is destroyed (~800MW).'

In layman's terms, don't these numbers indicate that the refinery is quite efficient?
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 15:23:14

Code: Select all
Year   M b IN   M b OUT   Yield%
2005   5686470   6135884   92.7
2006   5473499   6198102   88.3
2007   5383494   6204500   86.8
2008   5119100   6277893   81.5
2009   4676865   6169893   75.8
2010   4568301   6345372   72.0
2011   4484600   6422710   69.8
2012   4395128   6406693   68.6
2013   4433893   6577077   67.4
2014   4349316   6779342   64.2
2015   4269058   6870704   62.1
2016   3886527   6351231   61.2


Here is the EIA data on refinery input, and outputs from the links referenced above.

Why don't you go see them and tell them it is all wrong because VTSnowFlake said so.

They probably haven't had a good gut busting belly laugh in ages.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 15:27:55

Code: Select all
2015   4269058   6870704   62.1
2016   3886527   6351231   61.2


The last two years. Have you left yet?
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby Athabascan » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 15:38:59

shortonoil wrote:Some kind of conundrum? The EIA data shown on the graph below clearly shows a decline in refinery crude yield. Our comment was that it probably resulted from processing lower quality crude, but one email that we received made a point that casts doubt on that suggestion. Their point was that the rate of descent shown on the graph is constant for the entire 12 years, but the rate of increase of shale production wasn't.

The Etp Model clearly indicates that the energy to produce petroleum and its products must be increasing, unfortunately, it doesn't give the physical mechanism as to how that is happening. We have one exponential function, shale production increase, and one linear function, declining yields. There is more going on here than we realize, exactly what it is, is the question? That question may well determine the fate of the refining industry, and the entire petroleum industry. Questions, questions:

[click to enlarge]

.


Shortonoil,
I need to reinforce my earlier post to which I have not received a response.
Refinery Yield:
I assume the graph you have developed is showing liquid volume yield of products as a percentage of crude feedstock.
If I am interpreting the graph basis correctly, my industry experience says this is not so. There is an error in your analysis somewhere and I believe this is in the choice of EIA data set used may be wrong. As this is a forum to discuss the technical basis for the ETP, I am flagging this in good faith (my suspicion is the counting of finished gasoline volumes is undercounted as most shows up only in the refinery plus blender data and you have used the refinery only data)
I believe the exergy based analysis in the ETP is the best method to understand our energy predicament going forward, but we must be allowed to ask testing questions and expect a reasoned response. This is the only way to make the model resilient.
Best professional regards,
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 15:49:42

"The unit exergy cost determined for FCC LPG and gasoline is: 1.08 kJ/kJ while for hydrotreated diesel, which requires more processing steps, is 1.11 kJ/kJ."

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ived_Fuels

This study appears to be for purchased energy. To know the refinery yield it would be necessary to know total inputs, and outputs. Unfortunately, they never mention those numbers.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 15:57:34

Don

Thanks ! My bad. I though that "The unit exergy cost determined for FCC LPG and gasoline is: 1.08 kJ/kJ while for hydrotreated diesel, which requires more processing steps, is 1.11 kJ/kJ" meant that it they had to burn 1.11 barrels of crude to receive the energy to refine another one to a barrel of diesel.

I read the report on my phone and could not read the full report. Yes. I blame my mistake on my phone. :)

Yes , the energy efficiency seems to be very high according to the study.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby donstewart » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 16:02:31

Yoshua
I had the same reaction to the 1.08 kj/kj. Was it taking more energy to process the oil than the oil contained?

I don't have any very profound insight into the numbers.

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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 17:29:54

shortonoil wrote:
Code: Select all
Year   M b IN   M b OUT   Yield%
2005   5686470   6135884   92.7
2006   5473499   6198102   88.3
2007   5383494   6204500   86.8
2008   5119100   6277893   81.5
2009   4676865   6169893   75.8
2010   4568301   6345372   72.0
2011   4484600   6422710   69.8
2012   4395128   6406693   68.6
2013   4433893   6577077   67.4
2014   4349316   6779342   64.2
2015   4269058   6870704   62.1
2016   3886527   6351231   61.2


Here is the EIA data on refinery input, and outputs from the links referenced above.

Why don't you go see them and tell them it is all wrong because VTSnowFlake said so.

They probably haven't had a good gut busting belly laugh in ages.

For 2016 you have 3886527 input and 6351231 as output so you are trying to say that is a 61.2 percent yield. You just flunked six grade math again. If you have more output then input that would be a 163 percent yield.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby godq3 » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 17:33:31

shortonoil wrote:Why don't you go see them and tell them it is all wrong because VTSnowFlake said so.

On one hand it is clear that vtsnowedin is right, and you are wrong about refinery yields, and on the other hand oil price isn't going up despite OPEC cuts, and US oil stocks are rising. I'm confused. Wait and see is the only option for me.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby Cog » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 17:52:57

You are confused because you didn't notice the rise in oil price the day that OPEC announced the cuts. An inconvenient truth for the ETP doom cult.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 18:20:59

Cog wrote:You are confused because you didn't notice the rise in oil price the day that OPEC announced the cuts. An inconvenient truth for the ETP doom cult.

That was a knee jerk reaction, not evidence of a long term trend
“None are so blind as those who do not wish to see"
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 18:36:24

onlooker wrote:
Cog wrote:You are confused because you didn't notice the rise in oil price the day that OPEC announced the cuts. An inconvenient truth for the ETP doom cult.

That was a knee jerk reaction, not evidence of a long term trend

Or a consequence of global oil peak. Perhaps the rest of the oil producing regions are in decline. Hum? And our wonderful wahabist allies over in Saudi Arabia are actually pumping full out, because they are lying cheats? Is that possible? Maybe The Donald had point?
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 18:50:41

Pstarr, I am very sure Short and his group will be vindicated on this site. I do not see the oil price yearly average topping the maximum affordability curve in any year henceforth
“None are so blind as those who do not wish to see"
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 20:06:57

"On one hand it is clear that vtsnowedin is right, and you are wrong about refinery yields, and on the other hand oil price isn't going up despite OPEC cuts, and US oil stocks are rising. I'm confused. Wait and see is the only option for me."

It is amazing how you idiots can deny the numbers when they are right in front of you? A elementary school child could plot those EIA numbers. There can be absolutely no doubt about their validity. I would also suggest that there is no one here is that is so stupid that they can not see that. There can also now be no doubt that there is an agenda working here, and that it is not in our best interests! Trying to convince people that up is down, and black is white is diabolical, at best. That makes it all one very nasty piece of work.

We are a dying civilization, and our days are very numbered. The worms and the maggots have eaten away its foundation. The roof has already given way, and we are now waiting for the walls to crumble around us. Lottery around while it all descends upon us is the last thing that we should be doing.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby BahamasEd » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 20:41:53

OK, no problem

From 2011 to 2015 oil prices was about $100 per barrel and the big oil companies where losing money.

At the current $50 to $55 price they are not finding any new oil and are just covering there pumping costs.

And at this current price the refiners are not able to sell all of the product they are producing, so the current end item price must be too high.

So the Producers want higher prices and the End Users wants lower prices.

So the end user can't afford prices above the MAP price and the producers can afford a price below the MAP.

That basically validates the ETP model.

We are so ******
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby Revi » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 21:06:32

Do you see the price of crude going over $54 in the near future? I wonder if we have hit the high price for the year already, and there is only downward pressure from here?

I also wonder when you see the availability of oil getting tougher for the average person in the US?

I know it's tougher for some, but for the average consumer it seems like they can barely afford it now.

Wondering when you see that ending?
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby Revi » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 21:09:54

First, I would like to say that I appreciate you explaining the Etp model in this forum.

I think it would be better not to call anyone names because it makes it hard to ask questions when there is a risk of being called names. The name of this thread is The Etp Model, Q & A.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby creedoninmo » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 21:28:14

If short is correct that the big money is pushing up the price of oil, it is amazing to me that they can't seem to get it above the 54 dollar level. My guess would be that if they did keep it above the 54 dollar a barrel level for very long something in the world economy would break. In a way they have found the highest sustainable level they can keep
it at. There are a lot of things lining up for an economic downturn at the end of 2017 in my mind.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 17 Feb 2017, 04:16:28

creedoninmo wrote:If short is correct that the big money is pushing up the price of oil, it is amazing to me that they can't seem to get it above the 54 dollar level. My guess would be that if they did keep it above the 54 dollar a barrel level for very long something in the world economy would break. In a way they have found the highest sustainable level they can keep
it at. There are a lot of things lining up for an economic downturn at the end of 2017 in my mind.

I don't find the present price surprising at all. It has risen from $40 a year ago up to the $53 range and has held there for three months with supply slightly in surplus for the whole year. So you have a stable supply and a stable demand so why would you not expect to have a stable price where the demand /supply curves as drawn by Samuelson economics cross?
It probably wont last as all it would take is a change in the weather or a change in consumer confidence and activity to move demand up or down and upset the apple cart. And of course turmoil in oil producing regions could cut production at any time.
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Re: The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Unread postby donstewart » Fri 17 Feb 2017, 11:02:24

implications of ETP Model; Peak Debt
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-1 ... o-unravels

As discussed previously. The notion of decoupling GDP (which measures money income) from the ability to do physical work (which can be approximated by net energy from oil, as per the ETP model) has not been demonstrated.

A quote from Mobus and Kalton's Principles of Systems Science, page 39:
'Harold Morowitz provided the detailed vision of exactly how energy flow produced the increases in organization and later explained how new levels of organization (complexity) emerged from lower levels (Morowitz, 1968).

So we are now getting a hard lesson in how shrinking energy flows result in the loss of complexity. And all those bonds are not going to be worth very much, and the soaring stock market will crash and the fight for the scraps of real productivity may be pretty vicious.

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