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CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby potterpaul » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 22:22:27

HV,

Really excellent post. Thanks.

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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 23:46:00

Seconded! Hvacman is a source of insight of a kind getting rarer and rarer around here lately.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 00:18:09

The fact that officials were trying to reassure everyone that everything was fine right up until they declared the evacuations should leave everyone a bit...worried who live downstream from a dam (or who eve drive over a bridge...)
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 05:56:52

To re-focus on drought:
Image
...very different from the five previous years.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby hvacman » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 16:08:03

Update on the Oroville dam statistics as of 12:42 PM PST:

The real-time data for Oroville dam shows releases of 100,000 cfs through the damaged main spillway and 118,000 cfs total river release, which means they got the hydro plant back up and running (it can divert 18,000 cfs). Lake level now down to 887.53 feet (down 14 feet from the top 901' elevation). The DWR says their goal is to get it down to and hold it at 50 feet below the top, as this level coincides with the level of the damaged base of the emergency spillway, relieving all hydraulic pressure from the spillway structure's face and reducing the potential for catastrophic failure.

I don't think they have the ability to release flows through the main spillway at lower elevations, as the base of the main spillway control gates appear to be about 50 feet below the emergency spillway crest. That leaves just the hydro plant to further draw down the reservoir, at a much slower pace. It would appear the original engineers never foresaw the possibility that future operators might really want to rapidly draw down the reservoir deeper than that. Hmmmm.....

Here is a link to the real-time data:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/quer ... 2017+12:42
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 16:19:23

KaiserJeep wrote:To re-focus on drought:
...very different from the five previous years.

And very different from the dire warnings of the GW-peakers.

I recollect I offered two-to-one odds on a $1000 debt that the Great California Drought would be over by March. Another huge storm heading for Northern and Southern California. To late for you fence sitters :-D :P
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby yportne » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 20:16:03

We are promised a big rain beginning Friday. We need it. Many of the Ventura area reservoirs are still way below normal. And one might wonder - Is Southern CA destined to eventually lose some of its Northern California water?
-- I am sure that we will have flash flood warnings this weekend, especially in the burn areas.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby hvacman » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 11:42:09

pstarr wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:To re-focus on drought:
...very different from the five previous years.

And very different from the dire warnings of the GW-peakers.

I recollect I offered two-to-one odds on a $1000 debt that the Great California Drought would be over by March. Another huge storm heading for Northern and Southern California. To late for you fence sitters :-D :P


Below is a link to the annual storage graphs for Shasta Lake going back to 1990. This is probably representative of how most northern California reservoir storage levels have fluctuated. Note the drought and wet cycles. The past 10 years, we've had two multi-year drought cycles with a single 3-year wet cycle in between. We are currently have a very-wet year, but if the recent-past cycles are an ongoing trend, this wet cycle will be short and we'll have another drought by 2020.

Compounding the cyclical drought problem is that this wet year has essentially "broken" Oroville dam and reservoir, the state's second largest water storage reservoir at 3.5 million acre-feet. Until permanent solutions are both engineered and constructed for the primary and auxiliary spillway failures, to ensure proper flood control, the reservoir levels will have be kept very low and not allowed to get anywhere near the primary flood-control spillway gates at 50 feet below the top. But the top 50 feet of the reservoir is where about 30% of its storage lies. That is about 1 million acre feet. Gone - likely for several years. I can guarantee you that 180,000 local evacuees (the extended family of my daughter-in-law being among them) will not tolerate the reservoir being re-filled again to normal levels until every, every, every detail is sweated, tested, re-tested, and re-tested again. The wheels of government move slowly. This will take time. We may not be in-drought by all kinds of measurements, but this summer, Lake Oroville will be short 1 million acre feet AGAIN come summer, and perhaps for several years. To those who depend on its water, the drought will continue unabated.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/jspplot/jspPlo ... =10000&coo
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby hvacman » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 12:57:30

A great article on how everything OTHER than Oroville is doing with this winter's water.

“That groaning sound you’re hearing throughout the Central Valley isn’t the dams – it’s the levees,” said Jeffrey Mount, the former director of the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences. “We’re stressing them pretty well right now. And, just as you’d expect, issues are starting to crop up.”


http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article132779679.html

And a great article on who are the real stakeholders for Oroville's water - and the political and economic pressures brought onto the state DWR - that brought the dam to its current dire situation.

The revelations in a May 26, 2006, filing from the state Department of Water Resources to federal officials underscored how state officials rejected calls 11 years ago from three environmental groups to require that concrete be used to armor the emergency spillway at the nation’s tallest dam.

The department went on to say in its document to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that its geology division had closely evaluated the emergency spillway at Oroville, the tallest dam in the United States. Environmentalists’ concerns that the spillway — a 1,730-foot concrete lip along the reservoir’s edge, with only a tree-lined, earthen hillside below — could fail, triggering a catastrophe, were overblown, department officials said at the time.


http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/13/o ... -in-place/

Even as residents slowly return to their homes, the finger pointing has begun.....
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 13:01:13

Try this hvac: Image
(right click mouse button to select the entire image)

We have greater storage, earlier in the rain season, than any time since cdec has been tracking the data.

I have been calling this drought over since the rainy season broke on Oct. 8. Because I understand he media (grew up the newspaper industry) and its doughboys in any corrupt government. They just like drumming up hysterical BS. Keeps the funding and ad revenues higher and higher
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 13:40:23

Pete, the image is a broken link.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 13:44:39

KaiserJeep wrote:Pete, the image is a broken link.

Worked a minute ago. The California Nevada River Forecast Center must be overwhelmed with hits. Or its underwater lol

It's back. Try refreshing the page.

Oroville is even in better shape.
Image
(right click mouse button to select the entire image)

I doubt California has seen this much water in a hundred years
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 13:56:08

It still doesn't work, there is no image, only the symbol for an image, nothing to select.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 14:01:45

just do this:

to to STORAGE at the top of the chart. (The STORAGE link is also a chart header)

-- at the bottom, type in '3000' in the 'span' box. Select 'get custom plot'
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby hvacman » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 14:35:13

Sorry, I didn't check my link. Try this attachment: 10,000 days of Shasta Lake storage. As pete noted, you may need to use the scroll bars to see it all.

I
Attachments
shasta lake storage 10000 days.png
shasta lake storage 10000 days.png (72.98 KiB) Viewed 743 times
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 05:38:35

Northern California (incl #LakeOroville) is >1 month ahead of the previous rainiest rainy season on record. 221% of normal. Stunning pace."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 0238632960


That's an incredible departure for a multi-station index!! I knew it had been wet but I didn't realize how extreme the pace was - 50% more season-to-date than the previous record wettest year.


Thanks to Sigmetnow and KevinOConnor at neven's site for link and text.

Also, lost of good pictures and discussion here: https://www.metabunk.org/oroville-dam-s ... ure.t8381/
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 14:36:42

Doh, you had the foresight to not accept my wager. Smart guy/gal :)
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby Cog » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 16:01:52

@hvacman

You mentioned up thread that the power plant is running water through the penstock. That is inaccurate. The power plant is not running water through it at this time. All the water that is going into the river is coming through the primary spillway.
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Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared Pt 5

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 20:25:23

California is now experiencing its worst storm yet — with the potential to reshape its history.

https://psmag.com/california-braces-for ... 38774515e8


Don Pedro Controlled Spillway Gate has been opened.
#DonPedroSpill
First time since 1997.
(Back then, the water from the spillway caused flooding in Modesto.)
Brief video at the link: https://twitter.com/turlockid/status/833818231894794244

"Yes, that's a waterfall behind the house. Anderson dam spillway in full force now."

https://mobile.twitter.com/lenramirez/s ... 3190505472

(Thanks to sigmetnow at neven's site for these links and text)
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