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The Real Peak oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby aldente » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 05:08:11

are you making fun of us, MD ?
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby JV153 » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 05:27:27

aldente wrote:are you making fun of us, MD ?


You don't think there's some literal hysteresis involved, do you ?
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby MD » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 06:21:22

aldente wrote:are you making fun of us, MD ?


sometimes, yes.

mostly making fun of myself.

often said that respect is learned and earned.

the same can be said for humility, but the lesson plan can be much more difficult...
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby Revi » Thu 09 Feb 2017, 21:11:17

The real peak oil is going to a lot less fun than we imagined. There isn't going to be any heroic back to the land movement, nor is there going to be some way out of it. It's gonna suck!

And it might be here sooner than we think!
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 09 Feb 2017, 22:35:47

Revi - "The real peak oil is going...". Howdy, buddy, been a while. PSo I'll take this opportunity to bust your balls. LOL. Just repeating a point I've made many times before: the " real peak oil" world is all around you now. One does not have to imagine what a post global PO looks like...you've been experiencing it for years now. Really.

On what ever that relatively unimportant date is reached oil might be $50/bbl or $100/bbl. In fact, even though it may be many years before we have proof we may be at GPO today. Yes, tossing out the POD once again. When you look at all the positives of the dynamic (lots of production, low prices, high oil inventories, growing economies, relatively stable Middle East, little drilling activity etc) and negatives of the dynamics (declining consumption, inventory shortages, embargos, record high oil prices, booming drilling activity, Middle East instability/wars, etc) think back: we've been experiencing the POD at least since the 70's. Yes: we've been deal with all the aspects of the peak oiooiol dynamic for at least the last 4 decades.

What conditions do you envision in the future that we haven't already experienced...perhaps multiple times to varying degrees? Really: give a specific situation we haven't yet experienced.

Not really directed at you so much, Revi. Just the folks that are infatuated with the date of global PO as if it will produce a world radically different then what we've lived thru for the last 40+ years.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 10 Feb 2017, 01:44:07

ROCKMAN wrote:Just the folks that are infatuated with the date of global PO as if it will produce a world radically different then what we've lived thru for the last 40+ years.


I have followed the Peak Oil idea for nearly 20 years. Looking back at that time, even though I knew there would still be plenty of oil being produced on the "downward slope" after Peak Oil, I was more concerned about the psychological effect of a 'Peak Oil Date' having on the general public. And by psychological effect I mean panic, which would turn a difficult situation into a disastrous one. *

I quickly realised that I would never be able to predict when a panic situation would hit. It was just too hard to predict what would be the trigger and its timing [several candidates were around the political situation in the Middle East, eg the House of Saud being over-thrown, or a Saudi vs Iran conflict that closed the Straits of Hormuz].

BUT what I also realise is that a declining oil supply would put more pressure on the system leading to a 'lighter trigger'. Thus a Peak Oil Date would have been an important indication that trouble was near. HOWEVER, through discussions here I was made to realise that we will only see a PO Date in the rear mirror (and then we will probably argue over different dates until the internet system fails).

So, while I would still like to know the PO Date, I realise that as it would be a lagging indicator it is not helpful for planning purposes. :cry:


* An example of this was in my late teens in the UK when there was a summer of 'sugar shortages'. It was near impossible to find sugar in the shops. I learned later that the companies were producing just as much sugar as before, but a pattern of panic and hoarding meant a sudden 'shortage in the shops'. Or it is like consumers' response to an oil crisis of keeping their tanks filled rather than just filling up when empty.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby sparky » Fri 10 Feb 2017, 08:33:29

.
There ain't be any panic or light coming from above .
we are talking of a seismic shift , the very ground on which you stand is slipping away
Rockman is right , it's happening everyday since the 1973 Yom kippur war ,
that was the end of the Santa Claus era , plenty ,cheap and all the sky is blue forever

....Oh boy was it a come down
then the warning got wasted because people got used to it and there is always tomorrow
well tomorrow is now , peak oil could be in ten years or yesterday , who care ,!
we live in the age of "what is the oil price this morning"
is it a way to run an economy ?
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 10 Feb 2017, 10:44:34

Edwin - so true about the panic mode folks will shift to when there's no need. Just like your sugar panic example: in the late 70's when there was the so called "Arab oil embargo". There was no shortage of gasoline production in the US. I still recall one foolish reporter flying offshore looking for tankers circling while waiting for gasoline prices to get higher. Just fueled the panic (pun intended).

The gasoline in the distribution system did disappear overnight. But long after many news stories about companies hoarding fuel the truth came out: all that gasoline " disappeared into the fuel tanks of tens of millions of vehicles. Instead of typically waiting until tanks levels got low folks kept topping off before the reached half full. Thus fuel station inventories disappeared quickly. It took weeks for the refineries to replenish those supplies.

Long after the panic the facts came out. But just like your sugar panic it was too late to make a difference.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 10 Feb 2017, 15:15:19

Revi wrote:The real peak oil is going to a lot less fun than we imagined.


And how do we know when THAT will happen, versus all the phony ones we've been through?

[quote='Revi"]
There isn't going to be any heroic back to the land movement, nor is there going to be some way out of it. It's gonna suck! [/quote]

They said that about all the phony ones as well. And yet...here you still are driving around your EV and lounging on bucolic islands off the coast of Maine during the summer, just as the wife EVs to work, collects free fuel for her EV and travels to the Atlantic seaboard during the summer to appreciate the non-suckiness of our post peak world.

Plus, we got all these great prices to road trip on!

Revi wrote:And it might be here sooner than we think!


We all said that last time too! And then it either A) happened and all we got stuck with were low prices or B) hasn't happened yet even though it has been claimed and we have yet another sine wave cycle of euphoria and cheap road tripping, followed by a price cycle, followed by yet more peaks, and then more people joining the EVers of the world!

Ultimately, this ends only one way Revi. Your idea of everyone EVing around just like you. Which is a good thing, in my book.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 10 Feb 2017, 21:14:52

Some points to consider include the downward trend for discoveries across several decades and a plateau for oil production per capita, and both in light of a global capitalist economy that requires the opposite.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 10 Feb 2017, 22:42:56

Ralfy - For Dog's sake stop f*cking up the conversation with relevant facts. You're spoiling the high jinks. (Damn...now there's an old term).
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 11 Feb 2017, 22:14:23

ralfy wrote:Some points to consider include the downward trend for discoveries across several decades and a plateau for oil production per capita, and both in light of a global capitalist economy that requires the opposite.


Some other things to consider are that lack of discoveries didn't stop in creasing supply and corresponding price crash when resources not considered by peakers as significant turned out to be just that, and this occured in a very capitalist economy because mostly free markets whupped it up on NOC managed oil volumes.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby Revi » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 09:22:56

I'm glad my comments got a robust discussion going. I don't think anyone will even care about the peak. Nobody I talk to seems to even know anything about oil at all. It's just there. I think the hardest thing is to convince the fish that they are swimming in water. Nobody cares!
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby eugene » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 10:26:13

I got in a panic 1970 or so expecting things to happen quickly. (severe PTSD played a role I know now). My anxiety/paranoia drove my family nuts. I don't get in a bind re predictions but it makes sense to me energy will be an increasing issue due to expense, extraction difficulty, etc. I am not one to place my hopes on what I think of as miracle solutions like renewables. Not that I blow them off just don't see them replacing oil. Nor do I place great hopes on usage declines with a global population increase of 1.5 million a week. Much of what I read appears, to me, hopes/dreams of an easy solution with happiness into the infinite future.

The Middle East is not stable nor will it be with us constantly meddling there. And I know, it's not us, it's the other guys with Russia being our favorite villain. And now with instability personified at the controls, the whole world is increasingly unstable.

So my read is we are in a corner with energy, climate change, an ungodly massive military we're just itching to use, increasing unemployment, declining US social support system, a press that is constantly fear mongering, etc, etc. And I simply don't see a way out. Doomer? Yep! Way it is for me.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 16 Feb 2017, 11:13:36

Revi wrote:I'm glad my comments got a robust discussion going. I don't think anyone will even care about the peak.


For those who think it has already happened more than a decade ago, and were rewarded with lower prices and somehow even more abundance, they probably don't. Other than having "won" a debating point that the experts from back then got it right.

Revi wrote: Nobody I talk to seems to even know anything about oil at all.


You live in Maine. There isn't any, so why should they know anything about it? Now maple syrup...ask them questions about that! But leave the oil to the experts.

Revi wrote: It's just there. I think the hardest thing is to convince the fish that they are swimming in water. Nobody cares!


Why should they? If, as some claim, peak oil happened a decade ago, look at how well the consequences played out! Don't know about you, but $2.00/gal gasoline looks mighty fine compared to the $4/gal during the peak oil days of yesteryear.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby Revi » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 09:09:29

We are here in the center of things, and we have lots of oil and it's cheap right now. Meanwhile out on the periphery thing are getting bad for a lot of people. Brazil and Venezuela are in a deep recession, the Eurozone is in a funk and even Asia is slowing down a bit. We are going to feel it eventually. I really don't know when it will be, but homeless people are feeling it now.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby Cog » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 09:22:39

Venezuela is suffering because they are a failed communist state.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 09:23:26

Revi wrote:We are here in the center of things,

:-D :lol:
Naah Vermont is the center of things. 3300 miles to London, 5000 miles to Rio, 6600 to Tokyo, 2500 miles to L.A. 179 miles to Ottawa, and 256 miles to NY.NY.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 11:57:09

Revi - "...and we have lots of oil and it's cheap right now." Adjusted for inflation the current price of $50/bbl is higher then at any time between 1986 and 2005. And the current price is twice the average price it was between 1946 and 1974. IOW during the last 70 years sold for $50/bll or more during just 22 years. Or about 70% of the time oil sold for less then the current price.

Oil at $50/bbl is CHEAPER then it was a few years ago. But by historic standards it is not CHEAP.

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Infl ... _Chart.asp

Also, "we" don't have lots of oil. Some of us have lots of oil we can afford to buy. But there are also billions on the planet that cannot afford to buy much (if any) oil at $50/bbl.
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Re: The Real Peak oil

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 16:09:23

ROCKMAN wrote:Not really directed at you so much, Revi. Just the folks that are infatuated with the date of global PO as if it will produce a world radically different then what we've lived thru for the last 40+ years.


If you believe peak-oil to be a non-event, why do you continue to engage in the discussion? Why would anyone?

ROCKMAN wrote:here are also billions on the planet that cannot afford to buy much (if any) oil at $50/bbl.


Seems like this demographic were in tough shape even in the 90s when we were swimming in oil. (You know, the people who cook their meals with cow dung stoves and have no running water and routinely die of dysentery.) So how is this salient? You seem to be trying to pump up SOME sense of negative consequences here, but it's not that compelling.

That's just how it is. "Cheap" is a relative term. No matter how cheap and ubiquitous something becomes, there's always somebody somewhere who can't afford it. It doesn't mean we're in a shortage of said resources. So pointing to ever poorer groups of people in some 3rd world hell-hole doesn't paint the picture of the end of suburbia that peak-oil once promised us.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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