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Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

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Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 10:19:42

Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020, according to new report

A boom in the popularity of solar panels and electric cars could spark irreversible changes in the energy sector within three years.

By 2020, the global demand for coal and oil could peak and start to decline, according to a new report published this week by researchers at the Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London, and independent think-tank the Carbon Tracker Initiative.

The power and road transport sectors account for approximately half of fossil fuel consumption, so growth in the solar panel and electric vehicle markets can have a major impact on demand. The findings of this report could have serious implications for businesses and governments that supply these fossil fuels, say its authors.
“Electric vehicles and solar power are game-changers that the fossil fuel industry consistently underestimates."

Expect the Unexpected: The Disruptive Power of Low-Carbon Technology, warns that fossil fuels may lose 10 per cent of market share to solar panels and electric vehicles within a single decade. In the past, a similar 10 per cent loss of power market share caused the collapse of the US coal mining industry.

Similarly, Europe's five major utilities lost more than €100 billion in value from 2008 to 2013 because they were unprepared for an 8 per cent growth in renewable power, of which solar panels played a big part.

According to the report, growth in electric vehicles alone could lead to two million barrels of oil per day (mbd) being displaced by 2025 - the same volume that caused a major oil price collapse in 2014-15. The report finds 16mbd of oil demand displaced by 2040 and 25mbd by 2050.

Emerging technology, such as printable solar panels, could mean the scenarios used in the study in fact still underestimate growth in the renewables sector.

... The report assumes that electric vehicles will be cheaper than conventional internal combustion engines by 2020.

The report finds that electric vehicles could have a fifth of the road transport market by 2030 and, with additional growth in hydrogen cars and oil/electric hybrids, conventional vehicles could account for less than half the market. By 2050 electric vehicles could grow to 1.7 billion (69 per cent of the market) while conventional vehicles would make up just 12 per cent.

The report is accompanied by an interactive dashboard so readers can delve into the results.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 14 Feb 2017, 10:24:06

Peak demand is going to be fantastic for peak oil, because it will cause it. Finally. And with luck, it will be the LAST one, and we can all stop worrying about, focusing on each of our personal transitions into our electrically powered future. Already here for some of us, but coming soon to everyone else!
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 00:20:56

"A boom in the popularity of solar panels and electric cars could spark irreversible changes in the energy sector within three years." Just so f*cking bizarre: it's as if such folks can't grasp 3rd grade arithmetic: in 2016 more the 82 million new ICE vehicles were added to the existing fleet of 1.2 BILLION fossil fuel powered vehicles. That compares to less then 2 million EV's purchased purchased in 2016.

So last year 84+ billion new ICE's vs <2 million EV's were purchased. And that hints of a reversal of the energy sector in just 3 years? And according to the IEA 82%+ of global energy is derived from fossil fuels and 3.6% from renewables with hydro accounting for the majority. And in 3 years we will at least see solid evidence of that split start to reverse?

I truly can't imagine the level of naïveté/stupidity that allows any mentally sound adult to accept such a prediction.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 12:40:39

ROCKMAN wrote:I truly can't imagine the level of naïveté/stupidity that allows any mentally sound adult to accept such a prediction.


You don't get to work much with economists then I take it? Hey, lets give them some credit, only a few fell for peak oil and ended up with egg on their face, but there were plenty more around who didn't fall for it, and at least deserve a look see into their work to see what other things they can prognosticate better than astrologists, accountants, bloggers, beat cops and violin players.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 12:50:14

ROCKMAN wrote:"A boom in the popularity of solar panels and electric cars could spark irreversible changes in the energy sector within three years." Just so f*cking bizarre: it's as if such folks can't grasp 3rd grade arithmetic: in 2016 more the 82 million new ICE vehicles were added to the existing fleet of 1.2 BILLION fossil fuel powered vehicles. That compares to less then 2 million EV's purchased purchased in 2016.

So last year 84+ billion new ICE's vs <2 million EV's were purchased. And that hints of a reversal of the energy sector in just 3 years? And according to the IEA 82%+ of global energy is derived from fossil fuels and 3.6% from renewables with hydro accounting for the majority. And in 3 years we will at least see solid evidence of that split start to reverse?

I truly can't imagine the level of naïveté/stupidity that allows any mentally sound adult to accept such a prediction.


I would agree almost completely with this assessment! 2020 is less than 3 years away.....how on earth we can stop the growth in oil consumption considering population growth and the undeveloped worlds oil requirements is beyond me.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 12:52:35

Most folks have a reading comprehension problem. Read the article...ACTUALLY read it....how many times do they use the word "could".
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 13:12:11

vox is actually quite intelligent. Real nice guy/gal.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 15:52:06

Flyguy- "how on earth we can stop the growth in oil consumption". And that's the simple point I've been trying to beat into folks all hyped up over EV's. With respect to consumption alternative energy vehicles ARE NOT IMPROVING the situation. They are actually losing ground at a rate of about 50 to 1. As you point out as the population increases and/or becomes more affluent it demands more motorized transportation. And today about 98% of that group is opting for ICE's. Even when/if the day comes they go 50% EV we would still be adding around 40 million new ICE's every year.

And we're obviously a long way off going from <2% to 50%.
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 15:58:58

AirlinePilot wrote:Most folks have a reading comprehension problem. Read the article...ACTUALLY read it....how many times do they use the word "could".


It is unfortunate that peak oilers didn't present all their claims of oil production as "could" every time they claimed the world was going to end. Sort of funny, these folks are putting the correct conditional in there, but others don't.

Predictions of the future should always include could. But can you see how fast you would have been banned for being a cornocopian if you dared do that here, a decade or so ago?

'Well, oil production COULD decrease, but what do violin players, beat cops and unemployed lawyers know about this anyway..." KA POW! how dare you question the authoritarian nature of violin players, beat cops and unemployed lawyers! Cornucopian!
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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 16:06:46

ROCKMAN wrote:Flyguy- "how on earth we can stop the growth in oil consumption". And that's the simple point I've been trying to beat into folks all hyped up over EV's. With respect to consumption alternative energy vehicles ARE NOT IMPROVING the situation. They are actually losing ground at a rate of about 50 to 1. As you point out as the population increases and/or becomes more affluent it demands more motorized transportation. And today about 98% of that group is opting for ICE's. Even when/if the day comes they go 50% EV we would still be adding around 40 million new ICE's every year.

And we're obviously a long way off going from <2% to 50%.


And why might the impact of EVs be blunted Rockman? The success of your industry of course. So thank you mucho for slowing down the transition to a better, more CO2 free world, but how much longer can your guys keep it up? Years? Decades?

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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Feb 2017, 17:44:49

Adam - "So thank you mucho for slowing down the transition to a better, more CO2 free world". Buddfy, you still don't seem to be understanding the numbers. "We" ain't SLOWING DOWN the transition. "We" are significantly ACCELERATING away from a transition. Again a f*cking INCREASE of 82+ million ICE's last year compared to an increased of less the 2 million EV's. That means "we" are causing a very significant loss of ground at a significant rate.

And of course "we" ain't the oil patch. "We" are the consumers that are CHOOSING to buy motor vehicles that burn fossil fuels. The oil patch doesn't even sell the ICE's so we don't spend even a penny talking consumers into buying them.

Go talk to Mother Ford if you need to bitch at someone. LOL
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