Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
coffeeguyzz wrote:This successful areal expansion of the Utica is one of the more unheralded stories in this Shale World today, IMHO.
AdamB wrote:coffeeguyzz wrote:This successful areal expansion of the Utica is one of the more unheralded stories in this Shale World today, IMHO.
Shell was discussing their success in the Utica in NE Pennsylvania at the national AAPG conference, in 2015 I believe. They made the statement during their presentation session that the main gas play in the Appalachian basin will, ultimately, not be the Marcellus.
This seemed to be backed up the local experts right about the time Shell was discussing this.
http://wvutoday.wvu.edu/n/2015/07/14/ut ... -wvu-study
coffeeguyzz wrote:The past several months have seen numerous Marcellus wells come online flowing 15/20/25 MMcfd for a few months, but nothing can compare with the few successful Deep Utica wells in SWPA.
The casing pressure on some have approached or exceeded 10,000 psi.
coffeeguyzz wrote:Only a few, the Scotts Run being most noteworthy, have maintained long-term (10 month +/-) high flow rate, but the production is extremely high.
The SR flowed 29 MMcfd for 9 months, has cumulative over 11 Bcf in 15 months online, all with a lateral 3,200' long.
This calendar year, both the Deep Utica potential and the Upper Devonian formations will have several wells drilled and should provide more clarity on future prospects.
Dry natural gas production is estimated to have averaged 72.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2016, a decline of 1.8 Bcf/d (2.4%) from 2015, which would be the first time annual average natural gas production has fallen since 2005. Forecast dry natural gas production increases by an average of 1.4 Bcf/d in 2017 and by 2.8 Bcf/d in 2018.
GoghGoner wrote:The latest numbers from the STEO. EIA was forecasting a 0.7% rise in 2016 at this time last year -- they were only off by 3.1% (that is a bit of sarcasm).
Monthly additions from one average rig represent EIA’s estimate of an average rig’s
contribution to production of oil and natural gas from new wells.
The estimation of new well production per rig uses several months of recent historical data on total production from new wells for each field divided by the region's monthly rig count, lagged by two months.
So the quick time line 2 to 4 months. But if the well has to be frac'd...forget that. You might have to wait a month to several months just for the frac crew to show up. And then 2 to 4 weeks to frac depending on the job. It can take a week just to set up the frac plumbing. So a frac'd shale well: 4 to 6 months.
Why Cheap Natural Gas Is HistoryNatural gas prices averaged a little more than $2.50 per mmBtu (million British Thermal Units) in 2016. Those days are over. Prices will average at least $3.50 to $4.00 in 2017.
Prices have more than doubled since March 2016 but gas is still under-valued. Supply is tight because demand and exports have grown and shale gas production has declined. In April of last year, I wrote that natural gas prices should double and they did. Henry Hub spot prices increased 2 1/2 times from $1.49 to $3.70 per mmBtu and NYMEX futures prices doubled from $1.64 to $3.30.
Nevertheless, gas prices are still too low. Storage was at record high levels throughout 2016 reaching 4.1 Bcf (billion cubic feet) and 84% of working capacity in mid-December. Storage has fallen 1.1 Bcf in the last month to 61% of capacity. That is below the 5-year average.
EIA SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOKHenry Hub Spot Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
2015 2016 2017 2018
2.72 2.60 3.67 3.85
kublikhan wrote: Why Cheap Natural Gas Is History
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