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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dissident » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 10:18:43

dohboi wrote:http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/fossil-leaves-suggest-global-warming-will-be-harder-fight-scientists-thought

global warming will be harder to fight than scientists thought
During documented episodes of global warmth, he says, the method reveals relatively low CO2 values, nothing like the levels of 2000 ppm or more suggested by other proxies. If these downward revisions hold, Earth may be even more sensitive to injections of CO2 than current models predict. “Temperatures are going to climb further for less carbon and we better be mindful of that,” Franks says.


Once again, the conservative initial estimates are shown to be wrong upon refinement.

To me it looks like one of the knowledge gaps is CO2 recycling in the oceans. Even the studies by Archer probably overestimate the CO2 burial flux. Warming surface oceans likely transition to a net re-emission mode from a net sequestration mode. So atmospheric CO2 levels persist for millions of years and not a few thousand. Yes, even chemical weathering is not fast enough. The notion of some giant garbage can that will take our trash to any level we want is a persistent one. And dead wrong.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 12:59:59

Great points, as usual, dis.

Have you seen any studies on when exactly (given various conditions, of course) the oceans are expected to turn from a sink to a source? I saw something recently about how the efficiency of the southern oceans as a carbon sink had recently declined, but not much else on this, as you point out, central issue.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 13:02:44

The good news is that the Paris Accords forbids the earth to warm more than 2 C---- or so TPTB claim 8)

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 13:10:22

Ahhh, but you're forgetting the 'aspirational' goal of 1.5 C!! (A limit we exceeded, at least for a while, last year, iirc.) :) :( :twisted:
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dissident » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 13:29:24

dohboi wrote:Great points, as usual, dis.

Have you seen any studies on when exactly (given various conditions, of course) the oceans are expected to turn from a sink to a source? I saw something recently about how the efficiency of the southern oceans as a carbon sink had recently declined, but not much else on this, as you point out, central issue.


http://www.smh.com.au/environment/clima ... 0ejo1.html

See the linked paper. The sink rate is falling and going to fall regardless of what we do in the short term. According to the regression model analysis, the sink rate will fall by a factor of 3 between now and 2100.

The above is a bulk analysis that extends the empirical data into an empirical model. But there is other more detailed research that indicates a change in the formation rate of marine snow (detritus rain that is the primary mode for sequestration of CO2 in the sediments) and a change in the rate of bacterial remineralization of the detritus. Basically more CO2 is released higher up in the water column and less makes it to the seabed. So the declining ocean CO2 sink has a causal mechanism and not just some black box regression model to back it up.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 13:35:29

Awesome. Thanks!

(This is the kind of thing that keeps me coming back to this often-troll-infested site!)
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 15:48:19

@ d.....not sure awesome is the most accurate way of describing that information.....
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 16:34:39

dohboi wrote:Awesome. Thanks!

(This is the kind of thing that keeps me coming back to this often-troll-infested site!)

This is a peakoil site. One of a few on the internet to even consider the terrifying catastrophe that awaits us all. These endless GW threads are mostly of interest to you, diss and kiwi. And a few of us skeptics. Invisible to the bulk of visitors. Serve mostly to drive a few hits. This stuff is tolerated. Whose's the troll?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 16:58:12

@ pstarr...actually this site covers a very wide range of topics.......and AGW is obviously absolutely caused by GHG emissions from fossil fuels....and those fossil fuels were laid down because of the changes in the planets environment and geology.

it that simple enough for you?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dissident » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 17:16:29

The peak oil subject has been thrashed to death and nothing has changed. There are plenty of threads on peak oil topics. The reason that they are less active than the environment ones is that there is nothing new to add. Killing of the environment threads will not activate the peak oil threads. It is not a zero sum game and in fact there is more exposure given to the peak oil issues by having a forum with a broader participation.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 17:24:07

kiwichick wrote:@ pstarr...actually this site covers a very wide range of topics.......and AGW is obviously absolutely caused by GHG emissions from fossil fuels....and those fossil fuels were laid down because of the changes in the planets environment and geology.

Yes, there will also be plenty of more oil to produce . . . in 60 million years. By whom?Perhaps humans, most likely cockroaches or our reptillian overlords
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 17:26:07

dissident wrote:The peak oil subject has been thrashed to death and nothing has changed

You mean peak oil hasn't happened, so it won't?

There used to be dozens of active threads on the subject. Folks didn't leave because they turned into techtopian peak-oil deniers. They left because our predicament is hopeless.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 18:44:28

@ pstarr...have you got something to back up your opinion that there is no hope?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 19:21:46

kiwichick wrote:@ pstarr...have you got something to back up your opinion that there is no hope?

Peak oil. Peak phosphorus. Peak H3. Peak gold. Peak NG. Peak. Peak top soil. Peak. Peak copper. Peak arable land. Peak humans.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 12:33:46

@ pstarr....the last peak you mention should give us hope .....if the human population peaks and then starts declining in the next 30-40 years , then the demand for non renewable resources may also start declining

in regards of peak oil and Natural Gas , the transition to renewables and storage could ramp up quickly enough to keep pace with their decline......China's recent announcement re investment in renewables , if carried though , will significantly reduce their consumption of coal and probably also put a dent in their oil consumption as well, as one example

I hope that as the situation becomes increasingly clearer to the majority of people ,changes to the BAU structure will start to happen and we can start bending the curve away from disaster

Perhaps that seems overly optimistic , but there are clear examples of rapid change that we can all point to that demonstrate that we can change given sufficient incentive
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 13:32:07

We've been near 1.1% for the populations growth rate for the last 3 to eight years, depending on your source, though with some indications of gradual decline. Hard to extrapolate that out, given so many uncertainties. Last I saw, standard projections extended peak population out past 2050 and probably higher than 10 billion, due to growth trends in Africa (despite AIDS, ebola, malaria, and various other nasty causes of death there).
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 13:43:42

dohboi wrote:We've been near 1.1% for the populations growth rate for the last 3 to eight years, depending on your source, though with some indications of gradual decline. Hard to extrapolate that out, given so many uncertainties. Last I saw, standard projections extended peak population out past 2050 and probably higher than 10 billion, due to growth trends in Africa (despite AIDS, ebola, malaria, and various other nasty causes of death there).

Got it! Runaway global warming no longer exists, we are not running out of our critical resources, and the demographic transition will usher in a world of abundance. With a bit of luck and some unobtainium we should be good for 10 billion. Why not 20?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 15:00:05

@ pstarr.....no......with luck some of us , or if we make rapid changes , possibly most of us could make it .....( or at least our children or grandchildren )

but only if we rapidly transition to a low GHG emission economy and reduce our consumption .....and realize we can't keep adding millions of extra human beings to the planet each year
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