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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dissident » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 10:18:43

dohboi wrote:http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/fossil-leaves-suggest-global-warming-will-be-harder-fight-scientists-thought

global warming will be harder to fight than scientists thought
During documented episodes of global warmth, he says, the method reveals relatively low CO2 values, nothing like the levels of 2000 ppm or more suggested by other proxies. If these downward revisions hold, Earth may be even more sensitive to injections of CO2 than current models predict. “Temperatures are going to climb further for less carbon and we better be mindful of that,” Franks says.


Once again, the conservative initial estimates are shown to be wrong upon refinement.

To me it looks like one of the knowledge gaps is CO2 recycling in the oceans. Even the studies by Archer probably overestimate the CO2 burial flux. Warming surface oceans likely transition to a net re-emission mode from a net sequestration mode. So atmospheric CO2 levels persist for millions of years and not a few thousand. Yes, even chemical weathering is not fast enough. The notion of some giant garbage can that will take our trash to any level we want is a persistent one. And dead wrong.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 12:59:59

Great points, as usual, dis.

Have you seen any studies on when exactly (given various conditions, of course) the oceans are expected to turn from a sink to a source? I saw something recently about how the efficiency of the southern oceans as a carbon sink had recently declined, but not much else on this, as you point out, central issue.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 13:02:44

The good news is that the Paris Accords forbids the earth to warm more than 2 C---- or so TPTB claim 8)

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 13:10:22

Ahhh, but you're forgetting the 'aspirational' goal of 1.5 C!! (A limit we exceeded, at least for a while, last year, iirc.) :) :( :twisted:
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dissident » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 13:29:24

dohboi wrote:Great points, as usual, dis.

Have you seen any studies on when exactly (given various conditions, of course) the oceans are expected to turn from a sink to a source? I saw something recently about how the efficiency of the southern oceans as a carbon sink had recently declined, but not much else on this, as you point out, central issue.


http://www.smh.com.au/environment/clima ... 0ejo1.html

See the linked paper. The sink rate is falling and going to fall regardless of what we do in the short term. According to the regression model analysis, the sink rate will fall by a factor of 3 between now and 2100.

The above is a bulk analysis that extends the empirical data into an empirical model. But there is other more detailed research that indicates a change in the formation rate of marine snow (detritus rain that is the primary mode for sequestration of CO2 in the sediments) and a change in the rate of bacterial remineralization of the detritus. Basically more CO2 is released higher up in the water column and less makes it to the seabed. So the declining ocean CO2 sink has a causal mechanism and not just some black box regression model to back it up.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 13:35:29

Awesome. Thanks!

(This is the kind of thing that keeps me coming back to this often-troll-infested site!)
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 15:48:19

@ d.....not sure awesome is the most accurate way of describing that information.....
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 16:34:39

dohboi wrote:Awesome. Thanks!

(This is the kind of thing that keeps me coming back to this often-troll-infested site!)

This is a peakoil site. One of a few on the internet to even consider the terrifying catastrophe that awaits us all. These endless GW threads are mostly of interest to you, diss and kiwi. And a few of us skeptics. Invisible to the bulk of visitors. Serve mostly to drive a few hits. This stuff is tolerated. Whose's the troll?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 16:58:12

@ pstarr...actually this site covers a very wide range of topics.......and AGW is obviously absolutely caused by GHG emissions from fossil fuels....and those fossil fuels were laid down because of the changes in the planets environment and geology.

it that simple enough for you?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dissident » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 17:16:29

The peak oil subject has been thrashed to death and nothing has changed. There are plenty of threads on peak oil topics. The reason that they are less active than the environment ones is that there is nothing new to add. Killing of the environment threads will not activate the peak oil threads. It is not a zero sum game and in fact there is more exposure given to the peak oil issues by having a forum with a broader participation.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 17:24:07

kiwichick wrote:@ pstarr...actually this site covers a very wide range of topics.......and AGW is obviously absolutely caused by GHG emissions from fossil fuels....and those fossil fuels were laid down because of the changes in the planets environment and geology.

Yes, there will also be plenty of more oil to produce . . . in 60 million years. By whom?Perhaps humans, most likely cockroaches or our reptillian overlords
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 17:26:07

dissident wrote:The peak oil subject has been thrashed to death and nothing has changed

You mean peak oil hasn't happened, so it won't?

There used to be dozens of active threads on the subject. Folks didn't leave because they turned into techtopian peak-oil deniers. They left because our predicament is hopeless.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 18:44:28

@ pstarr...have you got something to back up your opinion that there is no hope?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 19:21:46

kiwichick wrote:@ pstarr...have you got something to back up your opinion that there is no hope?

Peak oil. Peak phosphorus. Peak H3. Peak gold. Peak NG. Peak. Peak top soil. Peak. Peak copper. Peak arable land. Peak humans.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 12:33:46

@ pstarr....the last peak you mention should give us hope .....if the human population peaks and then starts declining in the next 30-40 years , then the demand for non renewable resources may also start declining

in regards of peak oil and Natural Gas , the transition to renewables and storage could ramp up quickly enough to keep pace with their decline......China's recent announcement re investment in renewables , if carried though , will significantly reduce their consumption of coal and probably also put a dent in their oil consumption as well, as one example

I hope that as the situation becomes increasingly clearer to the majority of people ,changes to the BAU structure will start to happen and we can start bending the curve away from disaster

Perhaps that seems overly optimistic , but there are clear examples of rapid change that we can all point to that demonstrate that we can change given sufficient incentive
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 13:32:07

We've been near 1.1% for the populations growth rate for the last 3 to eight years, depending on your source, though with some indications of gradual decline. Hard to extrapolate that out, given so many uncertainties. Last I saw, standard projections extended peak population out past 2050 and probably higher than 10 billion, due to growth trends in Africa (despite AIDS, ebola, malaria, and various other nasty causes of death there).
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 13:43:42

dohboi wrote:We've been near 1.1% for the populations growth rate for the last 3 to eight years, depending on your source, though with some indications of gradual decline. Hard to extrapolate that out, given so many uncertainties. Last I saw, standard projections extended peak population out past 2050 and probably higher than 10 billion, due to growth trends in Africa (despite AIDS, ebola, malaria, and various other nasty causes of death there).

Got it! Runaway global warming no longer exists, we are not running out of our critical resources, and the demographic transition will usher in a world of abundance. With a bit of luck and some unobtainium we should be good for 10 billion. Why not 20?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 08 Jan 2017, 15:00:05

@ pstarr.....no......with luck some of us , or if we make rapid changes , possibly most of us could make it .....( or at least our children or grandchildren )

but only if we rapidly transition to a low GHG emission economy and reduce our consumption .....and realize we can't keep adding millions of extra human beings to the planet each year
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 20 Jan 2017, 03:35:20

Record number of Americans now view global warming as “very worrying”

https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus ... 7250485248

And yet, somehow we elected Trumplethinskin 8O
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 18

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 20 Jan 2017, 05:49:34

Polls are horribly unreliable on every politically charged issue because most people will give the answer of the party they identify with no matter what they think personally. Add in that the way a poll is structured has a significant impact on the way another 10 percent or so of the population answers by giving two or three leading questions before asking the 'key' question to sway that percentage of the population that isn't axiomatically using their party of choice stance and you can get any poll to show a 'majority' agree with statement X.

You can do the same manipulation with Abortion or Gun Control or Renewable energy Subsidies simply by how you work the questions. Abortion is a clear and concise neutral word but if I ask you, 'Are you pro-Choice or Anti-Choice?" clearly the answer I am hoping for is you are 'pro-choice', which sounds ever so much nicer than 'pro-abortion'. By the same manipulation if I replace the words so I am asking are you 'pro-life' or 'anti-life' clearly I am hoping you are going to say 'pro-life'.

So you want the poll to say most Americans think President Trump is a Chump, Climate Change Is Real. You start the poll with a boilerplate statement that goes something like this, '97 percent of climate scientists say humans are causing global warming and it is dangerous, especially to the minority poor and children who will be most impacted. Do you think climate change is a threat?' Or you can be a bit more subtle and spread the statements out into a series of lesser statements so the conclusion is the same but the presentation is a bit less heavy handed.

This is exactly why polls about President Trump were so far wrong, the Media hates the man so every poll they took started from the POV that all right thinking people were against him. In a country as evenly divided as the USA that sways enough of that squishy 10 percent who just say what they say to get along and the skewed result looks like a landslide. It is the same effect in reverse with President Obama, the media love the guy so when they ask people if the country was heading the right direction under his leadership the result was 65 percent say NO or Heck No!, but when they ask if people approve of the President personally they say "Oh yes of course' no matter how they actually feel about him. People don't want to be called racists for not liking the First Black President, so when a poll is taken they lie in the face of the poll takers. It is the Bradley effect, not at all unknown, but if the media is dishonest they ignore the effect and just report the numbers that say what they wish were true.

The reality is, most Americans Do Not Believe Global Warming is A Threat. You can tell because their lifestyle is 180 degrees away from what a true believer would act. They buy trucks and SUV's for personal transport, fly cross country for vacations, have their A/C set to 70 or less in the summer and their heat set to 75 or higher in the winter. The examples are as endless as the number of ways Americans profligately waste fossil fuel energy.
https://ballotpedia.org/Bradley_effect
The Bradley effect, sometimes called the Wilder effect, is a concept that attempts to explain discrepancies between voter opinion polls and outcomes in elections where white candidates campaign against minority candidates. Adherents of the Bradley effect believe that some voters will tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a minority candidate but will vote against the minority candidate on Election Day. It was named for Tom Bradley, an African-American candidate who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial race despite having a lead in the polls going into the election.

A related concept is social desirability bias, which describes the tendency of individuals to "report inaccurately on sensitive topics in order to present themselves in the best possible light." According to New York University professor Patrick Egan, "Anyone who studies survey research will tell you one of the biggest problems we encounter is this notion of social desirability bias." Some researchers and pollsters theorize that a number of white voters may give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation.

Some analysts have dismissed the Bradley effect theory; others have argued that it has played a diminishing role in recent elections. One analysis of 180 Senate and gubernatorial elections between 1989 and 2006 suggested that "before 1996, the median gap [in public polling data and actual vote share] for black candidates was 3.1 percentage points, while for subsequent years it was -0.3 percentage points."
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