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Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 18:39:50

Leaving a better world, there's an old time concept you don't hear much. Thanks for bringing it up.
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby GHung » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 18:52:41

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
GHung wrote:Predicting the behavior of hyper-complex systems is nearly impossible. Predicting trends, not so much.

This is pretty amusing, coming from the fast crash doomer crowd. The cornies and the moderates have been saying all along, that the trend toward slow growth favored by the system is likely to continue for a long time.

And month after month, year after year, the constant alarmist cries for short term crashes of the system have been proven wrong, again and again.

So why are your intuitions about feedbacks, small percentages being enough, etc. to crash the whole system to be believed any more than all the other assertions over the history of short-term-crashism (for want of a better name)?


You have a habit of putting anyone that is even a bit more doomer than you into the "fast crash crowd". It's a bad habit indicative of binary thinking. Besides, I don't like crowds.

Just think of it this way: I put 50/50 odds on fast crash vs slow crash, but a crash is unavoidable. I work on a variant of "hope for the best; prepare for the worst". Besides, my current lifestyle beats the shit out of the consumer-sitting-in-traffic, keeping-up-with-the-Jones', accumulating-faux-wealth, sitting-in-a-cubicle, happy-hour-with-the-boss, trick-or-fucking-treating life I had at one time, and didn't realise how much I hated it. What an awful way to waste a life. The American dream? How TF did this ever become normalcy?

So why are my intuitions about feedbacks, small percentages being enough, etc. to crash the whole system to be believed any more than all the other assertions over the history of short-term-crashism? People like you, O_S. Billions of them, driving blind.
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby careinke » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 03:04:06

Cog wrote:Doomers=Death cult. Lets crash the global economy and kill billions but lets not say that directly. You want to help out on over-population and a negative impact on the environment, stop eating.


But if I stop eating, I won't be able to help fix the environment that man has basically destroyed. Who else do you suggest do it? I'm looking for nonviolent ways to stop the system from getting us all killed along with taking down most of the current ecosystem.

I'm also not calling for the collapse of civilization, just the collapse of the monetary system. This collapse will hopefully curtail GHG emissions giving us a better chance of avoiding runaway global warming.

If you think the answer is to vote for trump or Hilary then enjoy your delusion.

All I'm advocating is take care of your own needs as much as possible, get out of debt, have some money, produce something, avoid banks, grow some food, buy local, trade, barter, and gift. Frankly even if it didn't cause a monetary collapse, working towards those ends is going to leave you better off with or without a collapse.

You seem to think the solution is root for your favorite political team, go deeper in debt to grow the economy, spend instead of save, and support those friendly bankers like Wells Fargo, and let the governments become more and more statist while they steal our rights. (I know that is not you 8) , so come over to the dark side :twisted: )
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby careinke » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 03:21:02

Outcast_Searcher wrote:So I think where we disagree is magnitude. Where do you come up with 5% reduction in economic activity over time (everyone won't do this at once clearly) will crash the entire system?

Why couldn't it be 20%? Or even 40% if it's somewhat gradual? People doing this will clearly be reducing their debt, BTW.

I think we can put some parameters on this. Clearly 100% will do it, by definition. 2% wont. (We had about a 2% global reduction in the 2008-9 crash, rapidly and involuntarily. It was scary and crashed the stock markets about 40%. People were worried about a possible depression. But all it caused was a deep recession, and some scaling back.) And for most people, more than perhaps 30%, or 50% at most would induce real hardship (hunger, lack of heat/cooling, transport, medical care, etc.) And people aren't going to do THAT en masse, unless they have no choice.

Do you have anything more than a gut feel that 5% would do it? (And complaining about things like "all the debt" doesn't come close to justifying 5%, without real specifics as to how/why the dominos would fall).


Holmgren explains where he derives this number starting on page 14 of the pdf
https://holmgren.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Crash-on-demand.pdf

Sorry but I can't seem to copy and paste from it. You might want to read the whole document, it is only 27 pages and an easy read.
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby radon1 » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 05:12:59

Please, don't crash the global economic system. Please. Do whatever, may be even burn some furniture, but please don't crash the global economic system.

onlooker wrote:I think you have us confused with some other people. We are trying to avert the premature death of billions.
Cheers


May I ask you on behalf of myself and billions to spare us your attempts at aversion of whatnot in respect of us, and better focus on taking care of yourself?

And if you'd really like to get a taste of your crash paradise, then why wouldn't you start from yourself. Go to the forest to settle there, cut all (I empasise - ALL) ties with the global economic system, including no tools, no electricity, no housing - nothing, and lead us by example from out there.
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 05:54:54

So Radon, you just wish to continue on the Mass Extinction path. How thoughtful, of future generations.
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby GHung » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 10:04:44

Radon1 said;
And if you'd really like to get a taste of your crash paradise, then why wouldn't you start from yourself. Go to the forest to settle there, cut all (I empasise - ALL) ties with the global economic system, including no tools, no electricity, no housing - nothing, and lead us by example from out there.


Typical silly hyperbolic absolutist response. That's why we're screwed; attitudes like this. If western economies could cut their consumption and waste streams by a third, it would go a long way towards mitigating the consequences of our gluttonous behavior, and we would still have some of the highest standards of living on the planet. The problem is that developed economies are locked into current rates of consumption and a lot of essentially useless intermediaries would be,,, useless; have to find another way to live. The Big Trap we've set for our society.

Meanwhile, I've managed to cut our consumption by at least a third and life has never been better. Maybe we'll drive down to Atlanta today to see the Chihuly exhibit, just to recover some of that deferred consumption and enjoy a beautiful day in the city, maybe do a little shopping. I need a new flour sifter and the ones at Walmart are crappy. Besides, I haven't been anywhere much for a long while. Burn it while you can, eh? I figure the round trip will only add about 300 pounds of greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere, and we'll be doing our part for the economy.
Last edited by GHung on Sat 22 Oct 2016, 10:08:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 10:08:29

Carinke,

I think the hornets nest you stepped onto has to do with understanding that our current system will kill more billions than almost any alternative. I believe that many if not most people find it quite literally IMPOSSIBLE to understand how this can be so. Yet it is. You are a disturbing messenger.

There is a smaller subset who don't find it in their portfolio to look that far forward. Their vision of responsibility is limited to their lifetime if not the here and now. Cog is of this ilk, perhaps due to religious beliefs. Surely many fall into that catagory. Yet even Ibon also has some elements of this when he says our kids will adapt to the world they find.

I'm not criticizing anyone. The more I contemplate the situation we find ourselves in the more hopeless and depressed I get. Staying busy and doing what I can is a partial tonic. Contemplating this thread yesterday I was reminded by some religious music of the power of God and leaving things to his hand.

Hundreds of years ago most Western folks were serfs, little better than slaves, they had precious little control. Perhaps the whole God meme developed in part to relieve the depression.

As an atheist God gives me no relief. Yet I recognize the power and to some extent the wisdom of letting go.

It a cumumdrum for sure. God save us all.
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 14:56:45

Good insights here, Newf. Well articulated.

(except it's conundrum, not cumumdrum, although that has a certain magical charm to it, actually!)
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby Cog » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 16:14:51

I hole-hardedly agree, but allow me to play doubles advocate here for a moment. For all intensive purposes I think you are wrong. In an age where false morals are a diamond dozen, true virtues are a blessing in the skies. We often put our false morality on a petal stool like a bunch of pre-Madonnas, but you all seem to be taking something very valuable for granite. So I ask of you to mustard up all the strength you can because it is a doggy dog world out there.

Although there is some merit to what you are saying it seems like you have a huge ship on your shoulder. In your argument you seem to throw everything in but the kids Nsync, and even though you are having a feel day with this I am here to bring you back into reality. I have a sick sense when it comes to these types of things. It is almost spooky, because I cannot turn a blonde eye to these glaring flaws in your rhetoric. I have zero taller ants when it comes to people spouting out hate in the name of moral righteousness. You just need to remember what comes around is all around, and when supply and command fails you will be the first to go.

Make my words, when you get down to brass stacks it doesn't take rocket appliances to get two birds stoned at once. It's clear who makes the pants in this relationship, and sometimes you just have to swallow your prize and accept the facts. You might have to come to this conclusion through denial and error but I swear on my mother's mating name that when you put the petal to the medal you will pass with flying carpets like it’s a peach of cake.
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 16:53:40

Cog wrote:I hole-hardedly agree, but allow me to play doubles advocate here for a moment. For all intensive purposes I think you are wrong. In an age where false morals are a diamond dozen, true virtues are a blessing in the skies. We often put our false morality on a petal stool like a bunch of pre-Madonnas, but you all seem to be taking something very valuable for granite. So I ask of you to mustard up all the strength you can because it is a doggy dog world out there.

Although there is some merit to what you are saying it seems like you have a huge ship on your shoulder. In your argument you seem to throw everything in but the kids Nsync, and even though you are having a feel day with this I am here to bring you back into reality. I have a sick sense when it comes to these types of things. It is almost spooky, because I cannot turn a blonde eye to these glaring flaws in your rhetoric. I have zero taller ants when it comes to people spouting out hate in the name of moral righteousness. You just need to remember what comes around is all around, and when supply and command fails you will be the first to go.

Make my words, when you get down to brass stacks it doesn't take rocket appliances to get two birds stoned at once. It's clear who makes the pants in this relationship, and sometimes you just have to swallow your prize and accept the facts. You might have to come to this conclusion through denial and error but I swear on my mother's mating name that when you put the petal to the medal you will pass with flying carpets like it’s a peach of cake.

Excellent, Cog. You cheered me up. Thanks.
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 17:15:37

Hawkcreek wrote:
Cog wrote:I hole-hardedly agree, but allow me to play doubles advocate here for a moment. For all intensive purposes I think you are wrong. In an age where false morals are a diamond dozen, true virtues are a blessing in the skies.

...

You might have to come to this conclusion through denial and error but I swear on my mother's mating name that when you put the petal to the medal you will pass with flying carpets like it’s a peach of cake.

Excellent, Cog. You cheered me up. Thanks.

Without context, I couldn't tell whether he was emulating Dubyah, or a frightening proportion of internet posters (who apparently never had their papers graded by, say, people with a better command of English than many modern editors of various big city or national newspapers).

But Kudos, Cog. Hilarious.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 18:55:38

1+ even it was aimed at all to frequent gaffs (it's all the iPhones fault anyway)!
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby careinke » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 21:06:53

COG well done, butt eye stink thee fraze is "peace of pi".
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby radon1 » Sun 23 Oct 2016, 03:40:17

GHung wrote:
Typical silly hyperbolic absolutist response.


Check your recent link to Greer's report for more silly responses.
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby GHung » Sun 23 Oct 2016, 12:00:59

radon said; 'Check your recent link to Greer's report for more silly responses."

What? Try to make sense, radon. I know it's hard for you, but try.
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 05 Dec 2016, 11:31:03

In the hearts and minds of the people, in the competition between business as usual and lets crash the global economic system it sure seems BAU is winning out as attested to by this story.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns- ... story.html
Global Trumpism seen harming efforts to reduce climate pollution
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 05 Dec 2016, 11:38:36

The one 'hope' some of us have is that tRump will prove so totally venal and incompetent that he will trigger a total collapse of the world economy.

Of course, the will greatly harm many people, and will probably be accompanied by various military actions that will harm more.

But if it ends up greatly diminishing the capacity of global industrial civilization (= planetary death machine), perhaps it would be worth it?
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Re: Let's Crash the Global Economic System!

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 05 Dec 2016, 11:52:38

But if it ends up greatly diminishing the capacity of global industrial civilization (= planetary death machine), perhaps it would be worth it?

Absolutely, D. I totally agree. I go back to a phrase that was uttered "You can have Industrial Civilization or you can have a living Earth but you cannot have both. End quote
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