[Tanada]

An update on the "King is dead!" idea being pushed back in 2014:

From the Financial Times this week:

"Australian thermal coal, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has hit $100 a tonne, cementing its status as the best performing commodity of the year. A 25,000 tonne cargo of high grade material for November delivery changed hands on GlobalCoal, a physical trading platform, for $100 a tonne on Tuesday. The deal means benchmark prices in Asia have now doubled since June, a move that has wrong-footed analysts and traders as China has moved to curb its domestic output of the fuel.

Thermal coal is used to generate electricity in power stations and traders have been forced to scramble to find cargoes. This year’s rally has ended a five-year bear market that saw prices fall to around $40 a tonne."

It would appear the "King Coal is dead" gang are current being chased by coal zombies. LOL.

Early in 2016 the central planners of China attempted to avoid a glut by closing many small mines and reducing hours worked at several of the larger ones. Then in late August or early September they realized they had reduced production too much and were looking at a shortfall in supply for the winter months when usage is highest. They immediately increased hours for workers at the giant state owned mines but it was clear this would not be enough so they started buying international coal for delivery before winter to prevent a shortfall.

Ta Da Government planners once again prove their usefulness at predicting the future.
http://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/la ... 953650.htm

At a press conference held by China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on October 13, NDRC spokesman Zhao Chenxin stated that the NDRC together with relevant government departments have taken effective measures to stabilize coal supply and curb rapid rises in coal prices. For instance, at the beginning of September, they launched their second-level response, increasing overall Chinese daily coal output by 300,000 mt; in late September, they launched their first-level response, raising daily coal output by 500,000 mt. Meanwhile, they have further plans to relieve the shortage of coal supply: for example, some approved coal mines will be able to increase their number of working days in the fourth quarter of this year. On October 10, coal stocks at major power plants amounted to 59.88 million mt, up 9.18 million mt or 18.1 percent compared to the end of August, while coal stocks at Qinghuangdao port totaled 3.6 million mt, up 0.98 million mt or 37.4 percent compared to the end of August. This indicates that the measures taken by the NDRC and relevant government departments have shown some impact.

The NDRC spokesman also mentioned that the supply shortage and rises in coal prices were not only due to production cuts, but also due to some other elements.

First, China consumed more coal in thermal power generation as high temperatures and lack of rain continued in most regions from July on. Meanwhile, overall Chinese hydropower generation has declined sharply; for instance, hydropower generation increased by four percent year on year in January-June, while decreasing by 12.8 percent year on year in September. At the same time, household electricity consumption rose sharply due to high temperatures. In July, August and the first 20 days of September, thermal power generation increased by 4.8 percent, 7.3 percent and 12.9 percent year on year, respectively.

Secondly, illegal production and low quality coal production have been effectively curbed, which reduced coal supply to the market.

Thirdly, rainy weather has negatively affected coal transportation in some regions, while the new road traffic management regulations in China have also impacted coal transportation.

In addition, Mr. Zhao also said that, since the period for building up coal inventory for winter usage is approaching, the NDRC and relevant departments will remain in close touch with coal producers and downstream users, in efforts to stabilize coal supply and coal prices in the coming period.

[diemos]

Everything that can be dug up and burned, will be dug up and burned.

The only open question is when and at what price point.

[KaiserJeep]

Indeed, because normal people don't give a hoot about AGW and FF exhaustion. Bring up either topic in casual conversation, and the most likely result is a blank stare.

Earlier this week I speculated that those who even were aware of these as "issues" were perhaps 100,000 out of the total 7.4+ billion humans. In case you missed that conversation, that 100,000 is actually 0.000000135135...% of 7.4+ billion humans.

Those remaining humans who never even argue about AGW Climate Change, and FF exhaustion are 99.999994864865% of the total.

There are of course no official stats for those that never will in there entire lives even get to consider such "issues" as you AGW fanboys concern yourselves with darned near constantly. So if you think that my 100,000 figure is off, propose another.

Because what I think, is we are going first to run out of oil, natural gas, and eventually coal to burn, and that's when most people will first hear about these topics.

[Tanada]

Everything that can be dug up and burned, will be dug up and burned.

The only open question is when and at what price point.

You are singing my tune. The thing that separated humans from the other primates is our ability to control fire. You can teach a Chimpanzee or Bonobo to use matches and lighters, but attempts to teach them how to build a fire by traditional methods have failed.

People like cooked food and warmth, those two factors alone mean you could knock us back technologically to zero and the few talented individuals who can make a fire with sticks or flint and iron would be very popular until they taught the majority how to do it. Those same people would burn wood, paper, furniture, coal or whatever else they could lay their hands on even if they were back to hand labor growing crops to feed themselves.

[GHung]

People like cooked food and warmth, those two factors alone mean you could knock us back technologically to zero and the few talented individuals who can make a fire with sticks or flint and iron would be very popular until they taught the majority how to do it.

I would go as far as to say that many human groups, especially those whose ancestry is from higher latitudes, are adapted to require fire. I doubt they could thrive at all without burning stuff, at least for keeping warm and cooking. Even though we've substituted electric resistance heat for many of our needs, electric heat and cooking methods are little more than fire without the flame, and most of our electricity still comes from burning stuff, even solar power.

[KaiserJeep]

I wonder even if the original premise of the article is valid any longer. Japan and Germany have both increased their dependency upon coal after backing down from nuclear power. Maybe King Coal is alive and thriving.

[ROCKMAN]

Demand and prices for coal will fluctuate over time just as with oil and NG. "Japan and Germany have both increased their dependency upon coal after backing down from nuclear power." I'm rather confident as oil and NG become less abundant/more expensive the world will increasingly turn towards the only remaining significant volume of fossil fuel...coal. The only factor that could reduce that demand would be a significant increase in alt energy. OTOH if/when vehicles switch to EV's in significant numbers the demand for electricity will have to be met by the alts and coal to some degree.

[sparky]

.
Some article are pure advocacy presenting themselves as debate ,
a cursory reading can tell you if it's even worth bothering to read
as diemos write , we will burn everything we can get
coal might be dying , but gas , crude , peat , hydro , nuclear will probably die before it does
as for "renewables " the only one is wood
....did we not do that before ?

Ghung ..nice try but fire was first used by the proto-humans in Africa ,
my very own definition of homo sapiens is the fire thing ,
as the ancients would say ... Prometheus gift

[ROCKMAN]

Australian coking coal prices have shot to $230 a tonne


One factor may be what I read long ago: major coal consumers sometimes stock pile several years of consumption when prices are low. But when those reserves deplete they are stuck with market price. Perhaps a large number of coal burners ran down at the same time. From
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/new ... 246390.ece

"The big surprise has been in coking, or metallurgical, coal used by steel-makers. From July 1, Australian coking coal prices have shot up two-and-half to 5 times to $230 a tonne, surprisingly at a time when the world steel industry is passing through one of the worst phases with China cutting down 100 million tonnes capacity. According to ICMW, Indian steel plants have booked coking coal for the October-December quarter at $200 a tonne, as against $93/tonne in the July-September quarter. Though India is world’s fourth largest coal producer, it has very limited coking coal reserves.

Supply constraint - According to Deepak Kannan, Managing Editor (Asia Thermal Coal) of Platts, the primary driver of this spike is China, which is world’s leading producer and consumer of both thermal and coking coal. Earlier this year, Beijing decided to cut the annual working days in mines to 270 days from 330. This had no significant impact on global prices till June as India stepped up production significantly and cut imports.

India is still flush with coal and there has been no supply disruptions from Indonesia, yet thermal coal prices started to skyrocket from July on Chinese buying and supply disruptions in Australia and South Africa. At least two major Australian miners recently declared force majeure.

Outlook - But the surge in thermal coal prices may not last. First, in September, Beijing ordered its new mines to step up production . This will increase China’s domestic supplies by nearly 30 million tonnes a month from November. Also, China completed the winter booking and has a 12-million-tonne stockpile at ports that is sufficient for 20 days. Kannan expects pressure to build on thermal coal prices from next month.

The outlook is not so clear for coking coal, though. Edwin Yeo, Managing Editor (Steel Raw Materials) of Platts, doesn’t foresee a meltdown in the short term. According to him, the coking coal shortage is acute and some steel-makers in China have had to shut down their blast furnaces. Steel-makers avoid this as re-igniting furnaces is a costly exercise. Yeo doesn’t agree. but some sources see a shadow of cartelisation in coking coal price surge, as three top producers control more than half the global trade.