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PeakOil is You

Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

What happens at Peak in geopolitics

USA invades Venezuala successfully
6
13%
USA invades Mexico successfully
0
No votes
USA invades Saudi Arabia successfully
7
16%
USA invades Nigeria successfully
1
2%
USA is told to back off any or all of the above
31
69%
 
Total votes : 45

Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 30 Apr 2005, 07:56:20

I keep seeing gloom and doomers predicting drafts and invasions of oil producing nations. Personally in a nuclear armed world I find this a silly idea, China, Russia, India, France and the UK are all armed quite well with nuclear weapons, thank you very much, and they are not about to roll over and let the USA take over Venezuala, Saudi Arabia or anyone else who sells them a lot of oil. We might invade Mexico or Canada and get away with it, anyone else and we would get a not so subtle order to back off or face nuclear war. [smilie=5nuclear.gif]
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Unread postby RonMN » Sat 30 Apr 2005, 08:24:39

I think it HUGELY depends on how INDIVIDUAL PEOPLE react. If we could accept that the world has changed & start doing what-ever we need to do i think alot of us could get along pretty well (not easily, but well)...

If we cling to the "old" ways, bitching about no heat, no gas, no stock market...and become paralysed with fear & dispair then the gloom & doomers will be correct.

WE vote in our leaders! WE can decide! If we vote in any maniac with a promise of more fossile production, well, then we did it to ourselves.

Unfortunately, with the vast denial of the topic of peak oil (and the reluctance to even hear of it)...i think we can already see which direction the people will choose :cry:
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Unread postby Tanada » Sun 01 May 2005, 18:43:45

You know the hardest part for me is not worrying about myself and my wife, we are both working in depression resistant careers and have very short commutes, 3 miles for her and 6 miles for me. Even if things go very south in the economy we can walk/bike to work and still pay our bills. What I worry about are my parents, my mom is 76 and lives with one of my sister's so she should be financially OK, my dad however is 78 and lives on a fixed income. The old family house is in good shape for having been built in 1911, it has foamed in insulation, new windows, and a new roof. It also has a 10 year old fuel oil furnace that sucks down fuel pretty quick if it is a cold winter, which is where his danger lies. The garden supplies most of the food for him and the relatives who live with him, his car gets decent milage for the little he drives it, but keeping the house warm in winter will be a major drag at $5.00 per gallon.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Unread postby azur » Tue 03 May 2005, 16:02:18

The answer could well be "All of the above", i.e. US is warned to curb its agressive foreign policy, but as usual ignores the UN and world opinion and invades a few well stocked countries to 'spread freedom'.
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Unread postby Tanada » Mon 09 May 2005, 07:41:45

azur wrote:The answer could well be "All of the above", i.e. US is warned to curb its agressive foreign policy, but as usual ignores the UN and world opinion and invades a few well stocked countries to 'spread freedom'.


And then the other Nuclear Powers get on the phone and tell D.C. "Not so fast big boy, we all get our share or else!"
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Unread postby Tanada » Mon 09 May 2005, 21:38:17

As someone on here somewhere pointed out if the Saudi's take the Dr. Strangelove scortched earth approach and do it publically then the USA has no reason to invade, and nothing to gain by threatening.

The same process could be used by any or all of the oil exporting countries which puts the world market firmly in the driver seat. Get ready for a decade long roller coaster followed by a new stabillity in growth or decline of humanity.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby an_amok_canuck » Sat 14 Jan 2006, 13:33:10

US is warned to curb its aggressive foreign policy, but as usual ignores the UN and world opinion and invades

With Bush in the drivers seat, its like having a three year old and a dish of candy across the room. You just know.

The Iran 'crisis' will be quite telling.... will he, won't he, we will soon know. If you deliberately use nukes, even low yield nukes, you will have let the genie out of the bottle. The results can not be predicted, no one wants to die, but waiting around for Bush to label you friend or foe may not be a valid alternative either.

If Iran is embargoed by Bush's anointed Bulldog bitch in the UN, ( he's on the UNSC, as of Feb ) you may see Iran say OK to China, but we will accept ONLY euro's, the US is just a pain in our ass so please don't even suggest greenbacks. The US can't tell China to go 'cheney' itself, they (the Chinese) have WAY to much invested in the US and they could start massive withdrawals from US accounts, wouldn't be in their best interest, but do you want to keep your money in a bank run by Neil Bush? Can you say collapse. Bush is in between Iraq and an hard place as far as credibility. The need to isolate may become overwhelming, beyond any risks involved in our 'consumer' economy.... best we can hope for is to be bled dry... slowly.

Anyway you slice the pie, we are in deep doo doo... until some competent leadership comes along, I would expect a major decline in US fortunes for the short term. We won't be 'leading the world' for much longer if the half wit stays in the saddle, I think even the slowest most corrupt Republican is starting to realize the paradox.... there will be some drama between now and the Nov elections, but if we don't wake up the economic consequences are quite dire.
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 29 Nov 2012, 19:53:26

Blast from the past, anybody have a thought who wasn't here when this came up the first time?
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby Beery1 » Thu 29 Nov 2012, 20:03:50

I'd say that, after the tight oil bubble bursts, it's even money on an invasion of Iran or Venezuela.
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby dinopello » Thu 29 Nov 2012, 20:35:00

As long as they take our money in exchange for the oil there is no need to invade.
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sun 02 Dec 2012, 18:13:01

Ongoing policy of destabilisation and corporate manipulation is probably all it is going to take,to topple uncooperative governments or keep them selling oil.
Dictators fear of their own people and reliance on protection should keep the rest in line.
PO collapse will come from only a small piece of the supply line not functioning so it will be a costly 24/7 exercise.
Ready to turn Zombies into WWOOFers
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 07 Dec 2012, 08:09:06

Hugo has missed some important meetings recently - so this is refueling rumours about his health in light of the cancer ops he has had. (heard on radio news this am - so no link so far).

If he dies will the USA have to invade, or will the next leader be more willing to trade?
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 07 Dec 2012, 08:21:00

EdwinSm wrote:Hugo has missed some important meetings recently - so this is refueling rumours about his health in light of the cancer ops he has had. (heard on radio news this am - so no link so far).

If he dies will the USA have to invade, or will the next leader be more willing to trade?


So far the President has demonstrated a willingness to use air strikes, missiles and drones but not ground troops in interventions, but he has also demonstrated a broad willingness to accept the Chavez government. Unless the successor government is radically different he would probably accept them as well.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 20:55:01

China is not about to let America push them out of their oil supply.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby Cog » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 21:31:19

A lot has changed in the 12 years since this thread was started.
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby sparky » Sun 26 Feb 2017, 02:58:23

.
Obviously the thread is about acquiring the main producers assets for the US by force
Russia doesn't care they are well armed and have enough to supply themselves
the consumer countries will be rolling over to them to get some barrels

those left hanging will be the Europeans and the eastern Asia trio Korea , Japan , China
while they do not have the military muscle to do anything much about it ,
they would probably concentrate on their financial push , the US is a debtor nation after all
bankruptcy would be the probable consequence
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 26 Feb 2017, 15:30:10

sparky wrote:.
Obviously the thread is about acquiring the main producers assets for the US by force
Russia doesn't care they are well armed and have enough to supply themselves
the consumer countries will be rolling over to them to get some barrels

those left hanging will be the Europeans and the eastern Asia trio Korea , Japan , China
while they do not have the military muscle to do anything much about it ,
they would probably concentrate on their financial push , the US is a debtor nation after all
bankruptcy would be the probable consequence

China has an increasingly large military, acts aggressively at times, and has hundreds of nukes. Did you really mean to include China in the "do not have military muscle" group, because that doesn't seem to be credible to me.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby sparky » Sun 26 Feb 2017, 21:25:01

.
China has the local muscle but is in the watchful eyes of the US Navy for its trading routes ,
it is totally dependent on free sea lanes for coal and oil imports
beyond Singapore and Taiwan their reach is close to zero
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Re: Poll, gloom and doom or sunshine and frolic?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 26 Feb 2017, 23:35:20

sparky wrote:.
China has the local muscle but is in the watchful eyes of the US Navy for its trading routes ,
it is totally dependent on free sea lanes for coal and oil imports
beyond Singapore and Taiwan their reach is close to zero

I would think that when push comes to shove, having hundreds of nukes and the ability to deliver them to many large cities with sophisticated cruise missles is far more than local power.

Yeah, the US has more global reach over all, given that it dominates the globe in military spending. (And seems to be bankrupting itself over the long run, partly by insisting it must continue to do so). However, that certainly doesn't mean China belongs in the same hapless military group as Japan and Korea, IMO.

China is building up its navy and air power capability over time as well. For example, it now has a combat ready aircraft carrier.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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