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Fully Automated Combat Robots Pt. 2

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Fully Automated Combat Robots Pt. 2

Unread postby careinke » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 00:20:51

ralfy wrote:
vox_mundi wrote:
ralfy wrote:Will robots buy what other robots produce?


"Buying", "selling" and "owning" are anthropomorphic constructs.

Unless we program avarice and greed into them, I don't think they'll miss it. Maybe the social economics of a hive might be a better model.

Does an bee buy or sell to another bee? Does it own anything?


This is what I mean: businesses invest in automation to increase productivity, but the returns come from sales of what is produced. AFAIK, human beings are the ones who buy what is produced, and the money they use to buy them come from salaries and returns on investment. In order to get those, jobs have to be created.


Which is why I expect to see "Universal Basic Income" tried in numerous countries, especially first world countries. In some ways it makes sense.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 11:51:43

careinke wrote:
ralfy wrote:
vox_mundi wrote:
ralfy wrote:Will robots buy what other robots produce?


"Buying", "selling" and "owning" are anthropomorphic constructs.

Unless we program avarice and greed into them, I don't think they'll miss it. Maybe the social economics of a hive might be a better model.

Does an bee buy or sell to another bee? Does it own anything?


This is what I mean: businesses invest in automation to increase productivity, but the returns come from sales of what is produced. AFAIK, human beings are the ones who buy what is produced, and the money they use to buy them come from salaries and returns on investment. In order to get those, jobs have to be created.


Which is why I expect to see "Universal Basic Income" tried in numerous countries, especially first world countries. In some ways it makes sense.


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White House AI & the Economy Report warns of Increasing Inequality, could cost U.S. Millions of Jobs

The White House report, “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and the Economy,” follows up on a series of workshops that started out in Seattle and resulted in a roundup of policy recommendations issued in October.

Today’s report focuses on the potential economic impacts of AI, and draws upon analyses from the Council of Economic Advisers, the Domestic Policy Council, the National Economic Council, the Office of Management and Budget, and the Office of Science and Technology Policy.

there are likely to be market disruptions as well as opportunities, and some employment sectors will be disrupted more than others. For example, truckers and other people who drive for a living face a relatively high risk of being displaced by autonomous vehicles, while housekeepers face a relatively low risk of being displaced by cleaning robots.

Estimates of how many jobs will be lost to automation vary widely: One group of researchers suggested that 47 percent of U.S. jobs are at risk of being replaced by AI technologies and computerization in the next decade or two. A different set of researchers at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development concluded that only 9 percent of jobs are at risk of being completely displaced.

In either scenario, millions of Americans will find their livelihoods significantly altered. Furman said government policies could make a big difference in how those Americans fare.
If you, for example, seriously roll back the social safety net, that would potentially be more risky at a time when you have these types of changes in the economy that we’re documenting in the report

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With a new technology threatening to produce huge numbers of displaced workers, it behooves us to invest in unemployment and healthcare to make sure these people can stay on their feet while finding or training for the next opportunity.

Ensuring that the existing protections are compatible with the increasingly populous gig economy is one specific recommendation, for instance, but unemployment benefits must also be made compatible with the prospect of extensive retraining programs. Wage insurance could make it more attractive for an expert in a deprecated field to take a lower-level job in an emerging field.

One other warning the report gives, though it isn’t attached to any recommendation in particular, is this:
The winner-take-most nature of information technology markets means that only a few may come to dominate markets. If labor productivity increases do not translate into wage increases, then the large economic gains brought about by AI could accrue to a select few.

In other words, if we don’t make sure that AI is working for everybody, you can be damn sure a handful of people are going to make it work for them.


The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.

The first job that Sherry Johnson, 56, lost to automation was at the local newspaper in Marietta, Ga., where she fed paper into the printing machines and laid out pages. Later, she watched machines learn to do her jobs on a factory floor making breathing machines, and in inventory and filing.

“It actually kind of ticked me off because it’s like, How are we supposed to make a living?” she said. She took a computer class at Goodwill, but it was too little too late. “The 20- and 30-year-olds are more up to date on that stuff than we are because we didn’t have that when we were growing up,” said Ms. Johnson, who is now on disability and lives in a housing project in Jefferson City, Tenn.

Donald J. Trump told workers like Ms. Johnson that he would bring back their jobs by clamping down on trade, offshoring and immigration. But economists say the bigger threat to their jobs has been something else: automation.

Over the long haul, clearly automation’s been much more important — it’s not even close,” said Lawrence Katz, an economics professor at Harvard who studies labor and technological change.

No candidate talked much about automation on the campaign trail. Technology is not as convenient a villain as China or Mexico, there is no clear way to stop it, and many of the technology companies are in the United States and benefit the country in many ways.

Mr. Trump told a group of tech company leaders last Wednesday:
“We want you to keep going with the incredible innovation. Anything we can do to help this go along, we’re going to be there for you.”

- d. tRump


Just allowing the private market to automate without any support is a recipe for blaming immigrants and trade and other things, even when it’s the long impact of technology,” said Mr. Katz, who was the Labor Department’s chief economist under President Clinton.

Analysis, from Ball State University, attributed roughly 13 percent of manufacturing job losses to trade and the rest to enhanced productivity because of automation. Apparel making was hit hardest by trade, it said, and computer and electronics manufacturing was hit hardest by technological advances


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Lost your gig to a robot? Here's a check to help you get by

A new survey says nearly half of Americans are OK with the idea of a "universal basic income," a monthly payment that could be funded by tax revenues and used as a safety net against job loss caused by, among other things, automation, artificial intelligence and similar tech developments.

... While it looks like folks are open to the general idea of a UBI, things change when it comes to hashing out the details.

Forty-six percent supported the basic notion, with 35 percent against and 19 percent undecided. But only 33 percent of respondents liked the idea that recipients wouldn't be required to do some sort of work in exchange for payments. In addition, only 39 percent thought funding such a program with taxes was the way to go, and only 38 percent thought recipients should be able to use the payments for whatever they wanted.


Merck Deploys AI For ‘Self-Driving’ Supply Chain

Merck KGaA, in a multi-year project to improve demand forecasts, plans to deploy sensors and AI algorithms throughout its supply chains for pharmaceuticals and health-care products. The goal is to create an autonomous supply operation where computers make more decisions about allocating materials and distributing products, Alessandro de Luca, CIO of the company, tells CIO Journal. Ultimately, Mr. de Luca said, he sees a supply chain that functions like a self-driving car: A system that analyzes data continuously and makes decisions on its own about speed and resources.


These Are The Robots Who Are Fulfilling Your Christmas Orders
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 20:54:23

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 22 Dec 2016, 14:40:37

Nukes are in play ...

Donald Trump: US must greatly expand Nuclear Weapons

Donald Trump has called for the US to "greatly strengthen and expand" its nuclear arsenal.

The president-elect, who takes office next month, said the US must take such action "until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes". (...or until were all dead - whichever comes first) He spoke hours after President Vladimir Putin said Russia needs to bolster its military nuclear potential.

The US has 7,100 nuclear weapons and Russia has 7,300, according to the US nonpartisan Arms Control Association.

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see also: Does Donald Trump Believe Nuclear War Is Inevitable?

... But then came this question: "Do you think Trump Tower and your other buildings will bear your name a hundred years from now?" Trump's reply was chilling:
No, I don't think so…I don't think any building will be here—and unless we have some very smart people ruling it, the world will not be the same place in a hundred years. The weapons are too powerful, too strong. Access to the weapons is getting too easy, so I think the landscape we're looking at will not be the same unless we get smart people in office quickly.

... The world is rocky, and some terrible things are going to happen. That's why I lead the life I do. I enjoy it.

... can a man who has said he views nuclear war as almost unavoidable but who couldn't be bothered to learn the fundamentals of nuclear policy be the "smart person" who can steer humanity past the greatest of all threats? Trump's campaign comments about nuclear weapons and the possibility of using them have not been reassuring.

... WALLACE: I just want to ask you about your skepticism about the intelligence community. You are getting the presidential daily brief only once a week.

TRUMP: Well, I--I get it when I need it.

WALLACE: But is it -- is there some skepticism –

TRUMP: You know, I get -- first of all, these are very good people that are giving me the briefings. And I say, "If something should change from this point, immediately call me. I'm available on one-minute's notice." I don't have to be told -- you know, I'm, like, a smart person. I don't have to be told the same thing in the same words every single day for the next eight years.


Rick Perry Will Really Run the Department of Nukes, Not Energy

... Much has been made of Trump’s disdain for expertise, whether its refusing intelligence briefings or dismissing the national security community as incompetent. Perry’s nomination suggests that Trump doesn’t think he needs technical advice, either.

The Energy Department spends most of its time and money on nuclear weapons, not oil, and played a critical role in the Iran deal. Governor Oops isn’t remotely qualified to run it.

Consider the Energy Department’s mission. While Energy does spend some money on “energy” research – about 22 percent of its budget– the largest expenditures are for making nuclear weapons and cleaning up their legacy. Those two categories account for nearly 60 percent of the Energy Department’s budget for fiscal year 2017. And with Trump enviously praising Russia’s nuclear arsenal as “tippy top,” that percentage will probably grow. At least the part for making nuclear weapons. We’ll see about cleaning up afterwards.

... Perry was widely mocked for trying to address concerns about his intelligence by suddenly donning a pair of eyeglasses. Perry took four chemistry courses and got two Cs, a D and an F. He got a C in physics. And a D in something called “Meat.” Grades aren’t everything. He’s probably not any more stupid than Gerald Ford was clumsy. But fear not, Rick Perry is putting on his eyeglasses.

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Putin Throws Out the Old Nuclear Rules

Washington and Moscow used to keep arms control separate from other crises around the world. But that era is over and the next president will have to decide how to deal with it.

U.S. and European officials are increasingly alarmed over Putin’s willingness to risk military confrontation and threaten to use his country’s nuclear arsenal over issues the West sees as unrelated and separate.


Vladimir Putin successfully launches nuclear test missile that can reach America in 12 minutes

Vladimir Putin has successfully test-launched a new supersonic missile that could breach NATO’s missile defense systems — and reach the United States in twelve minutes.

The missile, known as the Object 4202 rocket, also known as the Aeroballistic Hypersonic Warhead, managed to fly from Yasny Launch Base to the peninsula of Kamchatka, a distance spanning thousands of miles. Because its speed reaches 4000 mph, and the Missile can change direction during approach to a target at high speed, it would be practically impossible to intercept, rendering it impervious to being stopped by NATO’s defense systems. The missiles could reach the shores of the United Kingdom in as little as thirteen minutes. It is also invisible to US anti-missile systems and can evade radar.

The missile has been designed to carry Satan 2, Russia’s new 40 megaton nation killer nuclear weapon that are more formally known as RS-28 Sarmat super-nukes. (... for comparison, Tsar Bomba, the worlds largest nuclear bomb was only 50 megatons) It will be able to carry three of these weapons at a time, and each RS-28 Sarmat is believed to contain 16 nuclear warheads. If detonated, a Satan 2 bomb would be powerful enough to “wipe out three-fourths of New York state for thousands of years”..
One Russian SS-18 wipes out three-fourths of New York state for thousands of years. Five or six of these “Satans” as they are known by the US military, and the East Coast of the United States disappears.
- Paul Craig Roberts - fmr Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy


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Russia successfully tests missiles that fire from 'Nuclear Trains'

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Russia has successfully tested intercontinental ballistic missiles intended for its "Nuclear Trains" program.

Tests on missiles for the Barguzin "railway-based combat rocket system" were carried out at the Plesetsk cosmodrome two weeks ago, the state-owned Interfax news agency reports. "They were fully successful," a military source told the agency, "paving the way for further flight tests."

The mobile weapons platform, made up of several train carriages designed to conceal the launchers of six Yars or Yars-M thermonuclear ICBMs and their command units, are expected to enter service between 2018 and 2020.

Moscow will also deploy S-400 surface-to-air missiles and nuclear-capable Iskander missiles to the Kaliningrad exclave., which borders Poland and Lithuania.

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Nukemap 3D, Online nuclear bomb simulator that lets users nuke their home cities in 3D

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Tsar Bomba over New York

NUKEMAP3D is a 3D nuclear weapons effects simulator. It allows you to visualize the effects of nuclear weapons upon geographic areas you are familiar with. Also NUKEMAP2D

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 23 Dec 2016, 11:41:28

The five-year old, with a gun, speaks ...

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Trump tells TV host he 'Welcomes a New Nuclear Arms Race'

Morning Joe co-host Mika Brzezinski said Friday that, when asked if his tweet about building up the US' nuclear arsenal would spur other countries to do the same, President-elect Donald Trump replied "let it be an arms race."

The comments were apparently made off-air while Brzezinski's co-host, Joe Scarborough, was on the phone with Trump's incoming press secretary, Sean Spicer. Brzezinski said Trump told her:
"Let it be an arms race — we will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all"

Shares of uranium producers and a nuclear fuel technology company have jumped on Trump's comments with Uranium Resources Inc, Uranium Energy Corp, Cameco Corp and Lightbridge Corp all trading higher on Friday.

(The United States will spend an estimated $1 trillion over 30 years to modernize its weapons stockpile, in part because aging nuclear warheads require significant maintenance.)

The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for further comment.

Didn't the (former) USSR say the exact same thing?
Admiral Josh Painter: This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it. - The Hunt for Red October (1990)


Nuke Experts to Trump: WTF?

“We’re treating him like he’s a normal human being whose utterances have symbolic meaning, but I don’t know,” said Jeffrey Lewis, Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies. “I don’t know that this is any particular window into his policy or future.”

Ordinarily, when future presidents speak about nuclear weapons, they do so very, very carefully. (Arms that have the potential to end the world have a way of inducing that kind of caution.) What’s more, because the Bombs are never supposed to be used, the signalling around them—how they’re positioned, how they’re tested, and how they’re discussed—becomes of paramount importance.

This time? Eh, maybe not so much.

"It is completely irresponsible for the president-elect or the president to make changes to U.S. nuclear policy in 140 characters and without understanding the implications of statements like ‘expand the capacity,’" said Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association, a leading proponent of arms control based in Washington.

"He must have leaders around the world trying to guess what he means," Kimball said in an interview. "This is bush league."
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-t ... 4B1ZZ?il=0


Trump's Nuclear Tweeting Stuns Even Fox News

Surprisingly, the tweet immediately sparked controversy with none other than the economist and Fox Business host Stuart Varney, who called it a "big deal."

I’m thinking this out, Neil Cavuto told Stuart Varney. Let’s say we get to Dow 20,000, so we’re all richer for it. But Donald Trump also promises more nukes, so we’re all blown up just as we’re counting our money.

“Get out of here,” Varney scoffed.

“No, I’m just worried,” Cavuto explained. "You don't seem to be..."
“That would be something. We hit Dow 20,000… ka-boom.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XIIsfXxnf8


Nuclear weapon firms pay to settle illegal lobbying cases

A $67.5 million payment by a major nuclear weapons contractor to settle claims that it illegally spent federal funds is the latest in a series of settlements involving allegations that firms making bombs and cleaning up the resulting debris are using federal dollars improperly to win government support for continued weapons-related work.

Three whistleblowers -- Walt Tamosaitis, Donna Busche and Gary Brunson -- filed a lawsuit on Feb. 4, 2013, accusing Bechtel and URS bosses of mismanagement and misappropriation of funds over a dozen years that together cost the government more than $1 billion.
They also said safety lapses at the site, motivated by a desire to meet Energy Department deadlines and collect financial bonuses, were serious enough to risk a nuclear accident.

The companies declared on Nov. 23 they would settle the allegations by making the payment, mostly to the federal government, for a total of $125 million, a massive amount for alleged Energy Department-related malfeasance.

The settlement involves work by Bechtel National Inc. and its parent Bechtel Corp., and URS Corp. and its subsidiary URS Energy and Construction Inc., which together have been trying to clean up the Hanford Nuclear Reservation near Richland, Washington. That’s where raw uranium was enriched into fuel for nuclear bombs during the Manhattan Project and the Cold War.

Lockheed Martin Corp., which operates one of three U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories – Sandia, agreed in August 2015 to pay $4.7 million to settle a complaint by the Justice Department that it used federal funds to lobby for a no-bid contract extension, while Fluor Corp. paid $1.1 million in April 2013 to settle accusations that it used federal funds to lobby government agencies for more business at its Hanford training facility. ...


Rachel Maddow Destroys Kellyanne Conway On Trump’s Proposal To Expand Nuclear Weapons

On Thursday’s episode of the Rachel Maddow Show, Donald Trump’s former campaign manager and soon-to-be White House counselor, Kellyanne Conway, failed miserably to defend the president-elect’s new proposal that the United States expand its nuclear arsenal.

Conway alternated between playing dumb about U.S. nuclear policy and pretending that Trump never proposed the nuclear expansion in the first place.

Video of the heated back-and-forth:

Maddow also slammed the door shut on Conway’s attempt to dismiss the president-elect’s comments as a meaningless tweet and not an actual policy proposal: “The president making policy happens whenever the president speaks on a national security matter.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 27 Dec 2016, 20:47:19

Oops! ...

Torpedo fired at Plymouth nuclear submarine dock 'posed no danger'

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A torpedo was inadvertently fired at a nuclear submarine in dock in Plymouth.

And, in a separate incident, a dockyard worker in the city breathed in radioactive material, Cobalt-60 (Co-60 or 60Co) an investigation of incidents involving the nuclear industry has found.

But in both cases, The Times reports, the nuclear safety regulator deemed the incidents as being of no nuclear safety significance.

The decision that these and dozens more apparent safety breaches at nuclear installations around the country pose no danger has alarmed some scientists, who told the newspaper they should have been taken much more seriously.

Among the other incidents reported to the Office for Nuclear Regulation but dismissed as no more than 'anomalies' were three road accidents involving vehicles carrying nuclear material, the discovery of radioactive hydrogen in groundwater around the Dungeness nuclear power station in Kent and at least 70 safety incidents on the UK's main nuclear warhead base at Aldermaston in Berkshire.

The Times reports that brief accounts of all the incidents were quietly published earlier this year.

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Duped by fake news story, Pakistani minister threatens nuclear war with Israel

(CNN) A fake news story led to threats of nuclear war between Pakistan and Israel on Christmas Eve.

In an article published by AWDNews on Tuesday December 20, former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon was quoted as threatening to destroy Pakistan if it sent troops into Syria.

"We will destroy them with a nuclear attack," the article quoted Yaalon as saying. There is no evidence Yaalon ever said those words.

Pakistan Defense Minister Khawaja Asif responded to the fake news article on his official Twitter as if it were real.

He warned Israel that it was not the only nuclear power.
"Israeli (defense minister) threatens nuclear retaliation presuming (Pakistan) role in Syria against Daesh. Israel forgets Pakistan is a Nuclear State too," Asif wrote late on December 23.


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India tests long-range nuclear-capable ICBM

Specifically, the development is likely most worrying for China -- with a range of more than 5,000 kilometers (more than 3,100 miles) the Agni-V is India's longest-range and puts Beijing within striking distance.

Pakistan, India's historical adversary, was already in range before the Agni-V, according to IHS Jane's, a military analysis company.


World War Three, by Mistake

... Today, the odds of a nuclear war being started by mistake are low—and yet the risk is growing, as the United States and Russia drift toward a new cold war. The other day, Senator John McCain called Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation, “a thug, a bully, and a murderer,” adding that anyone who “describes him as anything else is lying.” Other members of Congress have attacked Putin for trying to influence the Presidential election. On Thursday, Putin warned that Russia would “strengthen the military potential of strategic nuclear forces,” and President-elect Donald Trump has responded with a vow to expand America’s nuclear arsenal. “Let it be an arms race,” Trump told one of the co-hosts of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all.”

The harsh rhetoric on both sides increases the danger of miscalculations and mistakes, as do other factors. Close encounters between the military aircraft of the United States and Russia have become routine, creating the potential for an unintended conflict. Many of the nuclear-weapon systems on both sides are aging and obsolete. The personnel who operate those systems often suffer from poor morale and poor training. None of their senior officers has firsthand experience making decisions during an actual nuclear crisis. And today’s command-and-control systems must contend with threats that barely existed during the Cold War: malware, spyware, worms, bugs, viruses, corrupted firmware, logic bombs, Trojan horses, and all the other modern tools of cyber warfare. The greatest danger is posed not by any technological innovation but by a dilemma that has haunted nuclear strategy since the first detonation of an atomic bomb: How do you prevent a nuclear attack while preserving the ability to launch one?

... a Defense Science Board report in January, 2013. It found that the Pentagon’s computer networks had been “built on inherently insecure architectures that are composed of, and increasingly using, foreign parts.” Red teams employed by the board were able to disrupt Pentagon systems with “relative ease,” using tools available on the Internet. “The complexity of modern software and hardware makes it difficult, if not impossible, to develop components without flaws or to detect malicious insertions,” the report concluded.

General James Cartwright—the former head of the U.S. Strategic Command who recently pleaded guilty to leaking information about Stuxnet—thinks that it’s reasonable to believe the system has already been penetrated. “You’ve either been hacked, and you’re not admitting it, or you’re being hacked and don’t know it,” Cartwright said last year.


Diving into the unthinkable cold truths of a nuclear war

Political consensus over issues like denuclearization has been fairly stable since the 1980s, thanks in part to scientific researchers showing what would happen to a world ravaged by nuclear bombs.

One such study was The Medical Implications of Nuclear War, published by Fred Solomon and Robert Q. Marston in 1986. This rigorous and grim estimate of nuclear war's effects on our planet is written in a bleak manner for good reason: to scare us straight.

"Our national security for the past 40 years has been based on the perception that nuclear war would be unhealthy," the study begins. "Understanding what the health consequences of a nuclear war would be, as best we can know them, is very important for informed opinions and actions by citizens and by government."

It seems we're due for a reminder. ...
In an era where our leaders look past the worst possibilities with blind optimism, it’s important once again to wince, read, think, and describe the "unthinkable."

Nuclear war offers a multitude of bad ways to die. The bulk of the initial deaths from a nuclear bomb come from the intense heat from the detonation itself, followed by the firestorms triggered by the blast.

... the authors note, “the projected number of injured requiring medical treatment would be drastically reduced relative to that projected by blast scaling, as many injured that would otherwise require treatment would be consumed in the fires.” If not vaporized at the center of a blast, many of those who survive the initial moments would then promptly be burned alive by a raging super-fire extending for many kilometers from the hypocenter of the blast.

Noxious gases from burning things that make up cities will increase the death toll by suffocating and poisoning a significant percentage of those not burnt alive from the initial blast and firestorm.

The nuclear blast and resultant superfires will create massive amounts of black soot (the charred remains of the people, buildings, plants, and other material that made up the city), about 50 percent of which will be injected into the upper troposphere or stratosphere levels of the atmosphere—well above the heights where soot can be rapidly cleared. The remainder will fall as intensely radioactive black rain upon the straggling survivors below. The dark smoke high in the atmosphere will block out the Sun.

Regions below the cloud could see about a 20- to 40-degree Celsius local reduction in temperature within about a week (more during summer months, somewhat less in winter), with the most severe temperature drops persisting for weeks to months. The dramatic change in temperature would then drive winds that would further spread the cloud and the effect. The result is nuclear winter

Exotic chemical changes to the atmosphere are possible, particularly in a larger war over multiple cities, with complex petrochemicals brewing in the upper atmosphere and comprehensive destruction of the ozone layer allowing much more ultraviolet radiation to reach the surface when sunlight returns. This results in a damaging "UV spring" following the nuclear winter.

A survivor of a nuclear war in which many nuclear devices are detonated would then contend with crumbling societies, failing crops, and chaotic, disturbed weather. For a large war, the end of modern life as we know it is probable; the extinction of humans as a species is possible.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 28 Dec 2016, 13:45:28

The lie-detecting AI security kiosk of the future, now

When you engage in international travel, you may one day find yourself face-to-face with border security that is polite, bilingual and responsive—and robotic.

The Automated Virtual Agent for Truth Assessments in Real Time (AVATAR) is currently being tested in conjunction with the Canadian Border Services Agency (CBSA) to help border security agents determine whether travelers coming into Canada may have undisclosed motives for entering the country.

"AVATAR is a kiosk, much like an airport check-in or grocery store self-checkout kiosk," said San Diego State University management information systems professor Aaron Elkins. "However, this kiosk has a face on the screen that asks questions of travelers and can detect changes in physiology and behavior during the interview. The system can detect changes in the eyes, voice, gestures and posture to determine potential risk. It can even tell when you're curling your toes."

Eye-detection software and motion and pressure sensors would monitor the passengers as they answer questions, looking for tell-tale physiological signs of lying or discomfort. The kiosk would also ask a series of innocuous questions to establish baseline measurements so people are just nervous about flying, for example, wouldn't be unduly singled out.

Once the kiosk detected deception, they would flag those passengers for further scrutiny from human agents. (... or shoot them where they stand)

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This is not an exercise! This is a police control! Put your hands in the yellow circles! … (Fifth Element 1997)

"AVATAR has been tested in labs, in airports and at border crossing stations," Elkins noted. "The system is fully ready for implementation to help stem the flow of contraband, thwart fleeing criminals, and detect potential terrorists and many other applications in the effort to secure international borders."

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Video Holden: Reaction time is a factor in this so please pay attention. Answer as quickly as you can.

Holden: Describe in single words. Only the good things that come to your mind. About your mother.

Leon: My mother? ...

Holden: Yeah.

Leon: Let me tell you about my mother - Blade Runner (1982)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 16:19:30

Finland Experiments with Universal Basic Income Scheme

Finland's experimental scheme to provide its citizens with a basic income, regardless of employment, launched earlier this week.

The two-year pilot scheme will provide 2,000 unemployed Finnish citizens, aged between 25 and 58, with a monthly basic income of 560 euros ($581.48) that will replace their other social benefits.

These citizens will continue to receive the basic income even if they find work.

Kela, the organization which runs Finland's social security systems and is running the pilot scheme, hopes the basic income experiment will boost employment, because the current system can potentially discourage the unemployed to find work as their earnings reduce the benefits they may receive.

Finland is implementing partial basic income because a report last year (pdf) found that a universal program would be too expensive. However, other countries are testing the idea. The Economic Security Project, a coalition of technologists, investors, and activists in the U.S., announced last month that it’s committing $10 million over the next two years to see if universal basic income could “ensure economic opportunity for all.” The Netherlands will run a smaller scheme this year and Scotland is investigating trials.


Japanese white-collar workers are already being replaced by artificial intelligence

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Meet your new underwriter.

... One Japanese insurance company, Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance, is reportedly replacing 34 human insurance claim workers with “IBM Watson Explorer,” starting by January 2017.

Fukoku Mutual will spend $1.7 million (200 million yen) to install the AI system, and $128,000 per year for maintenance, according to Japan’s The Mainichi. The company saves roughly $1.1 million per year on employee salaries by using the IBM software, meaning it hopes to see a return on the investment in less than two years.

The Mainichi reports that three other Japanese insurance companies are testing or implementing AI systems to automate work such as finding ideal plans for customers. An Israeli insurance startup, Lemonade, has raised $60 million on the idea of “replacing brokers and paperwork with bots and machine learning,” says CEO Daniel Schreiber.


UK Government on the future of Artificial Intelligence

The UK Government Office for Science has published a report entitled “Artificial intelligence: opportunities and implications for the future of decision making”.

The report focuses on several significant areas: What benefits will AI bring for society and government? What are the effects of AI on the labour market? How do we manage ethical and legal challenges from the use of AI?


Man vs. Machine: This AI will battle poker pros for $200,000 in prizes

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Video - Starting next week an artificial intelligence system named Libratus, developed by a team at Carnegie Mellon University, will try to establish a new milestone: beating some of the best human players at Heads-Up No-Limit Texas Hold’em poker.

While Libratus may one day be listed in the history books alongside Deep Blue and Alpha Go, it’s actually attempting to solve a very different kind of problem. Go and chess are perfect-information games: each player knows exactly what moves have been made and what space is left on the board to consider. Poker is an imperfect-information game, which makes it far more challenging for artificial intelligence to master.

In a complete information game you can solve a subtree of the game tree,” says Professor Tuomas Sandholm, who built the Libratus system with PhD student Noam Brown. AI trying to win a game of chess or Go can work through how a sequence of moves will play out. “With incomplete-information games, it’s not like that at all. You can’t know what cards the other player has been dealt,” he explains. “That means you don’t know exactly what subgame you’re in. Also, you don’t know which cards chance will produce next from the deck.

Incomplete information games have thus far proved much harder to solve. CMU’s AI focuses on information sets, a grouping of possible states that take into account the known and unknown variables. It’s a massive mathematical undertaking.The game has 10 to the power of 160 information sets, and 10 to the power of 165 nodes in the game tree,” says Sandholm. That means there are more possible permutations in a hand of poker than atoms in our universe.

Rather than merely strategize many moves in advance, as AI might do when playing chess or Go, the system built by CMU is looking to achieve the perfect balance of risk and reward, a state of play defined by the Nash Equilibrium. You might be familiar with this seminal piece of mathematics from the film A Beautiful Mind, which chronicled the life of John Nash; he introduced the concept back in 1950. It has since become a cornerstone of game theory, earning Nash a Nobel Prize in 1994.

In these two-player zero sum games, if the other player doesn’t play a Nash equilibrium strategy, that means they are playing worse, and we are making more money,” explains Sandholm. “In such games, playing Nash equilibrium is safe. It has the flavor where it plays rationally and is not exploitable anywhere.”

... They play like Martians, they figure out their own strategy.” The AI also flouted convention limp betting and by donk betting a lot, taking the initiative from the player who placed the final wager in the previous round.

A team from the University of Alberta built an AI system that was better than the best humans at limit Texas Hold’em back in 2008, and achieved near perfect play at that variant of the game in 2015. No-Limit, where the size of bets are not constrained, is much more complex, but all the poker pros involved in this tournament felt it was only a matter of time before the machines would prevail.
This sort of game has implications for other sectors that are characterized by incomplete and misleading information, like business, military, cybersecurity and medicine.

Extending AI to real-world decision-making, where details are unknown and adversaries are actively revising their strategies, is fundamentally harder than games with perfect information or question-answering systems,” said Nick Nystrom, senior director of research at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, in the university's release. “This is where it really gets interesting.”

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... We're not playing for 3-In-One oil here, we're playing for real money. (Silent Running -1972)

Freeman Lowell: [Lowell and the drones are playing poker; he looks smugly at his cards] All right, Huey. What have you got?

[Huey plays a winning hand. Lowell starts laughing]

Freeman Lowell: He had a full house and he knew it! Now how about that? He had a full house and he knew it! Huey and Dewey beat me at my own card game!

[Maniacal laughter]
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 15:09:41

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Europe calls for mandatory 'kill switches' on robots

Europe is preparing for a robot revolution.

European lawmakers have proposed that robots be equipped with emergency "kill switches" to prevent them from causing excessive damage. Legislators have also suggested that robots be insured and even be made to pay taxes.

Designers should include "kill switches" so that robots can be turned off in emergencies. The proposal states that designers, producers and operators of robots should generally be governed by the "laws of robotics" described by science fiction writer Isaac Asimov.
Asimov's laws stipulate that a robot must never harm or kill a human and always obey orders from its creator. Robots must protect their own existence -- unless doing so would cause harm to a human.

They must also make sure that robots can be reprogrammed if their software doesn't work as designed.

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The proposal on robot governance was approved by the European Parliament's legal affairs committee on Thursday. The issue will now be considered by the European Commission, which is the bloc's top regulator.

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Give robots 'personhood' status, EU committee argues


Pentagon successfully tests world's largest micro-drone swarm

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Video - When you think of a military drone you likely picture something along the lines of the now iconic “Predator,” but the US Department of Defense is also working with much, much smaller aerial vehicles as well. A recent test flight of over a hundred tiny “swarm” drones was just released, and they might actually be more terrifying than the much larger alternative. The test was conducted in California, using drones engineered by a team at MIT.

In footage taken over the skies of Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake, a trio of F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters release a total of 103 Perdix drones from small pods mounted on hardpoints on both wings. The drones are capable of withstanding ejection at speeds of up to Mach 0.6 and temperatures as low as minus 10 degrees Celsius.

The micro-drones demonstrated advanced swarm behaviors such as "collective decision-making, adaptive formation flying, and self-healing," according to a Defense Department statement Monday.

“ Due to the complex nature of combat, Perdix are not pre-programmed synchronized individuals. They are a collective organism, sharing one distributed brain for decision-making and adapting to each other like swarms in nature”

"Because every Perdix communicates and collaborates with every other Perdix, the swarm has no leader and can gracefully adapt to drones entering or exiting the team,” said Strategic Capabilities Office Director William Roper.

Unlike soldiers, who need specific orders to complete a mission, operators can give Perdix a general order and figure out the specifics on their own. Roper explains that the 104 Perdix drones have been ordered to patrol a 3-mile area, but not how to do it.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 12:20:09

Hacking Into Future Nuclear Weapons: The US Military’s Next Worry

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Warheads will be networked, and that presents unique challenges for the U.S. Air Force.

Future nuclear missiles may be siloed but, unlike their predecessors, they’ll exhibit “some level of connectivity to the rest of the warfighting system,” according to Werner J.A. Dahm, the chair of the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board. That opens up new potential for nuclear mishaps that, until now, have never been a part of Pentagon planning.

“We have a number of nuclear systems that are in need of recapitalization,” said Dahm, referring to LRSO, ICBMs and the B-21 stealth bomber. In the future, he said,
“... these systems are going to be quite different from the ones that they may replace. In particular, they will be much more like all systems today, network connected. They’ll be cyber enabled.”

That connectivity will create new concerns in terms of safety and certification that will almost certainly require changes or additions to current DoD directives.


The "Madman Theory" of Nuclear War has Existed for Decades. Now, Trump is Playing the Madman.

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The Missiles Are Flying, Hallelujah - The Dead Zone (1983)

Is Donald Trump a madman? Or, at least, would he like foreign leaders to think he might be just a little unstable? Such questions are being batted around in papers like the Boston Globe and the Washington Post in response to the president-elect’s foreign policy moves: his provocations toward China, his attacks on NATO and the UN, his warm overtures toward Rodrigo Duterte and Vladimir Putin.
... World leaders understand that nations with nuclear weapons are treated differently than those without, and so there is a rational reason for pursuing nuclear technology. At the same time, the use of nuclear weapons against an enemy would make a nation-state into a global pariah. It would be insane.

Enter Donald Trump. The president-in-waiting is schooled in none of these particulars, claiming to believe only in strength and the desire to use it. His loose talk about nukes has re-raised the long-dormant question: Is he crazy enough to actually press the button?

Here, the history of nuclear madness may be as much a trap as a guide. Because the questions now shouldn’t be about Trump’s madness but his impulsivity and ignorance. Whatever one thinks of Nixon and Kissinger’s madman theory, it was a calculation. Kissinger was steeped in game theory and Nixon had a deep knowledge of international affairs. Reagan was a foreign policy autodidact with experienced ideological advisors. Their administrations could tell a hawk from a handsaw. (Admittedly, some of these comforting thoughts were only fully evident in hindsight.) ...Video


Bill Perry Is Terrified. Why Aren’t You?

William J. Perry is 89, former U.S. secretary of Defense, a trained mathematician who served or advised nearly every administration since Eisenhower, has become, he says with a rueful smile, “a prophet of doom.”

... “Today, the danger of some sort of a nuclear catastrophe is greater than it was during the Cold War,” Perry said in an interview in his Stanford office, “and most people are blissfully unaware of this danger.”

It is a turn of events that has an old man newly obsessed with a question: Why isn’t everyone as terrified as he is?

Perry’s hypothesis for the disconnect is that much of the population, especially that rising portion with no clear memories of the first Cold War, is suffering from a deficit of comprehension.

Even a single nuclear explosion in a major city would represent an abrupt and possibly irreversible turn in modern life, upending the global economy, forcing every open society to suspend traditional liberties and remake itself into a security state.
“The political, economic and social consequences are beyond what people understand”

And yet many people place this scenario in roughly the same category as the meteor strike that supposedly wiped out the dinosaurs—frightening, to be sure, but something of an abstraction.


'Military clash' looms over Tillerson's tough talk, China warns

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The U.S. would need to wage a military conflict against China to block Beijing's access to disputed islands in the South China Sea, according to an article published Friday by the ruling Communist Party's flagship paper.

The English-language piece, which appeared in the state-run tabloid Global Times, came in response to U.S. Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson, who criticized Chinese foreign policy Wednesday at his confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Armed Forces Committee. Tillerson suggested Washington restrict Beijing from entering artificial islands it has reportedly built on territory in the Asia Pacific disputed between a number of nations including Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan, which Beijing does not recognize as independent from the central, mainland government. The Chinese op-ed continued:
"If Trump's diplomatic team shapes future Sino-U.S. ties as it is doing now, the two sides had better prepare for a military clash"

The article criticized Tillerson's lack of strategy in taking on China, calling his statement "the most radical statement from the U.S. so far." It said China had shown restraint in the face of aggressive rhetoric from the U.S., but the Pentagon would need to "wage large-scale war" to confront Chinese policy in regards to the islands.


Former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating says Rex Tillerson Threatening to Involve Australia in War

In a statement, Mr Keating said the Australian people needed to take note of Mr Tillerson's statements, which he described as "simply ludicrous". He added:
"When the US secretary of state-designate threatens to involve Australia in war with China, the Australian people need to take note"


2.5 billion people, nukes and missiles. What could go wrong?

Hong Kong (CNN)It's a frightening prospect, India and China going to war.

The countries are home to 2.5 billion people, a long and sometimes disputed border -- which they've fought wars over -- and each have nuclear weapons.

And India announced last month it successfully tested the Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which could theoretically deliver a nuke to Beijing.


Pakistan fires its first submarine-based nuclear cruise missile

Pakistan has successfully fired its first nuclear-capable submarine-based cruise missile, in a move that escalates tensions with neighbouring India.

The Pakistani navy said on Monday afternoon that it had launched a nuclear-capable Babur-3 missile, which has a range of 450km, from an undisclosed location in the Indian Ocean.

It added that the missile was “capable of delivering various types of payloads and will provide Pakistan with a credible second strike capability, augmenting deterrence

Experts said Pakistan was thinking of developing a sea-based nuclear missile programme in case India succeeded in damaging or eliminating its land-based weapons. According to some, the country has vigorously pursued sea-based nuclear missiles for years — but before Monday’s test it had only launched nuclear missiles from land and air-based platforms.


Pakistan Likely To Acquire Chinese Nuclear Attack Submarines

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A Chinese Type 093 'Shang' class nuclear submarine docked in a Karachi harbour in May 2016 photographed on Google Earth.

Displacing 7,000 tonnes when it operates underwater, and armed with six torpedo tubes, the Shang class submarine is part of the latest generation of nuclear attack submarines designed and commissioned by China. The submarine also has the ability to fire cruise missiles - including the Babur missile that Pakistan yesterday claimed to test-fire off its coast.

The Pakistani acquisition of a 'Shang' class submarine is meant to counter the Indian Navy's 'Akula-2' class nuclear attack submarines which New Delhi has been leasing from Russia.


India Could Go Nuclear With China and Pakistan

- India’s new chief of army is ready to go to war simultaneously with Pakistan and China.
- Nuclear missiles are being developed in India with the intention of direct confrontation with China.
- India might not be too keen on honoring the “no first use” policy it has regarding nuclear weapons.

With the new army chief of India appointed at the start of the New Year, the country could be looking at a new era of change where military policies are concerned. From the looks of it, enhanced preparations for war against neighboring rivals may start.

... India and China both carry a vast population of people. Hence, sparking off a deadly war would be to the disadvantage of the masses. With this view in mind, both of them entered a policy of “no first use” when it comes to nuclear power.

However, with China looking to render India in a disadvantageous position by taking control of the South China Sea, circumstances have changed.

According to CNN, India’s defense minister, Manohar Parrikar, wondered in November if India should uphold the “no first use” policy:
“If a written down policy exists, or you take a stand on a nuclear aspect, I think you are truly giving away your strength in nuclear. Why should I bind myself? I should say I’m a responsible nuclear power and I will not use it irresponsibly.”


Decapitation strike team, Korean edition

South Korea’s defense ministry says it will form a brigade specifically to take out North Korea’s leadership in the event of war, AP reports this morning. “The brigade was originally planned to be ready by 2019.”

"Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation" system would use special forces and cruise missiles now under development to destroy areas where North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and the rest of the country's decision-makers are located.

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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 12:51:22

After day one, AI is crushing humanity at poker

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The first day of the Brains vs. AI poker tournament is in the books, and the Libratus bot from Carnegie Mellon University emerged as the clear winner, collecting $81,716 to the humans $7,228. Both the players and Libratus’ creators cautioned that it was still too early to make a judgement call about who might win the 20-day tournament. But it’s clear that this year’s AI has made some major improvements on the 2015 system, Claudico, which ended up losing to humanity.

"I felt like Libratus is playing a lot better than Claudico did in the previous challenge," wrote Jason Les, one of the four poker pros, in an email to The Verge. "Preflop, it is using a widely mixed strategy," of small bets, calls, and very large wagers. "This is something it would be extremely difficult/impossible for a human to balance correctly in their mind but Libratus appears to be doing it well so far."

"The thing that impressed me the most is how unpredictable and random it was able to maneuver post-flop," said Jimmy Chou, another pro. "It also seems to understand some advanced strategies that many top regulars implement in their own game.''

... UPDATE: Day two has finished and Libratus doubled it's lead against the human pros, winning all five sessions so far.


Google’s AlphaGo AI Runs the Table on Asia’s Go Champs

In a series of unofficial online games, an updated version of Google’s AlphaGo artificial intelligence has compiled a 60-0 record against some of the game’s premier players. Among the defeated, according to the Wall Street Journal, were China’s Ke Jie, reigning world Go champion.

The run follows AlphaGo’s defeat of South Korea’s Lee Se-dol in March of 2016, in a more official setting and using a previous version of the program.

As described by the Journal, the AI’s strategies were unconventional and unpredictable, including moves that only revealed their full implications many turns later. That pushed its human opponents into deep reflections that mirror the broader questions posed by computer intelligence.

AlphaGo has completely subverted the control and judgment of us Go players,” wrote Gu Li, a grandmaster defeated by the program, in an online post. “When you find your previous awareness, cognition and choices are all wrong, will you keep going along the wrong path or reject yourself?”

Another Go player, Ali Jabarin, described running into Ke Jie, reigning world Go champion, after he had been defeated by the program. According to Jabarin, Jie was "a bit shocked:
". . . just repeating ‘it’s too strong’.”


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Demis Hassabis @demishassabis #AlphaGo
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby vox_mundi » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 11:18:50

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This short video perfectly expresses what it’s like to be a robot. Vicious Cycle features a group of little autonomous robots performing a range of repetitive functions, driven by mechanical devices. But as the mechanisms mercilessly start getting faster and faster, things take a turn for the worse for the helpless robots.


....

And videos from BBC's Spy in the Wild series, where robots discover just how like us animals really are, by using animatronic spy creatures that infiltrate the animal world to explore their complex emotions. Robot Prairie Dog spy video and Langur monkeys mistake the motionless robotic spy monkey that was accidentally dropped as a lifeless baby langur and begin to grieve.

The T-800 terminators are built to do the same job
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby Cog » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 11:34:56

Animals do not grieve. They are capable of fear and curiosity, but love and grief is outside their abilities. Your robots are not capable of any emotion.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby vox_mundi » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 12:05:44

Cog wrote:Animals do not grieve. They are capable of fear and curiosity, but love and grief is outside their abilities.

The Langur monkey video kinda makes a liar out of you. Plus numerous animal psych papers beg to differ with you. But what the hell; we live in a post-factual world now, so you can make up any story and believe whatever you want.

... Your robots are not capable of any emotion.

They ain't MY robots and no one said anything about robot emotions.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby C8 » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 12:54:17

The threat of nuclear war has been around for a long time now- I am not sure we are any closer to it unless systems get hacked. But humans have been relying on hackable computers for satellite data of attacks for decades now. The threat is not a new one. As long as humans are part of the launch decision there is a reduced threat of nuclear war. Most national leaders see nuclear war as unwinnable anyway.

The most likely way new tech will produce dangers is through the use of consumer grade drones to bring down jets or bomb civilians by terrorists. Automated cars and trucks can also be loaded with explosives- no suicide bomber required. Terrorists are already using guns, knives, trucks- whatever. A small drone with a grenade is a simple thing to pull off. It is not noticed high above a crowd and a swarm of them could kill hundreds at a football stadium- maybe more if the structure collapses. This could already be done with a plane or helicopter- but a drone makes it more likely the terrorist will live and not even be caught.

People may avoid being in crowds in the future- but who will work in buildings?

Already an anti-drone industry is growing. But if a drone's altitude is high enough it will be hard to prevent it from hovering above a crowd- and grenades drop fast.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 13:28:56

Hollywood is way ahead of retail drone equipment use by terrorists. A couple of years ago in one movie a small drone like one can buy on Amazon (on Prime, of course. LOL) with a couple of pounds of C4 took out a heavily protected VIP. In another was a handoff of a danger filled flash drive in a public park surrounded by FBI agents. Terrorist in the park stuck it on a drone and...POOF! All gone with the feds looking very foolish.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 13:44:12

Cog wrote:Animals do not grieve. They are capable of fear and curiosity, but love and grief is outside their abilities.


Call me a sentimentalist if you must but I strongly disagree with this. I have witnessed my pets over many years behaving in ways that demonstrate to me they are sad, and this is especially true when another pet, or human they are used to being around is no longer around. Maybe they just miss their companion/human/owner and it isn't grief in the human sense, but I think dogs and cats are fully cognizant of loss.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots Pt. 2

Unread postby vox_mundi » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 17:42:54

Pilot Who Crashed a Drone Into the Space Needle Could Face Charges

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Video - Add a kilo of SemTex ...

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... aim toward a support beam ... and Big Badda Boom
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots Pt. 2

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 26 Jan 2017, 11:52:48

Doomsday Clock ticks closer to midnight amid nuclear fears, climate change

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In announcing that the Doomsday Clock was moving 30 seconds closer to the end of humanity, the group noted that in 2016, “the global security landscape darkened as the international community failed to come effectively to grips with humanity’s most pressing existential threats, nuclear weapons and climate change.”

The organization also cited the election of President Trump in changing the symbolic clock.

“Making matters worse, the United States now has a president who has promised to impede progress on both of those fronts,” theoretical physicist Lawrence M. Krauss and retired Navy Rear Adm. David Titley wrote in a New York Times op-ed on behalf of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. “Never before has the Bulletin decided to advance the clock largely because of the statements of a single person. But when that person is the new president of the United States, his words matter.”

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Trident misfire spotlights the danger of fat fingers on nuclear buttons

Lawmakers Introduce Bill Restricting First Use of Nuclear Weapons

Lawmakers introduced a bill in both houses of Congress Tuesday that would prevent the president from launching a nuclear first strike without a congressional declaration of war. A policy that was long debated — but never seriously pursued — during the Obama administration has now become anything other than abstract after the election of Donald Trump.

“Nuclear war poses the gravest risk to human survival. Yet, President Trump has suggested that he would consider launching nuclear attacks against terrorists,” Markey said in a statement. “Unfortunately, by maintaining the option of using nuclear weapons first in a conflict, U.S. policy provides him with that power. In a crisis with another nuclear-armed country, this policy drastically increases the risk of unintended nuclear escalation.”

It is a frightening reality that the U.S. now has a Commander-in-Chief who has demonstrated ignorance of the nuclear triad, stated his desire to be ‘unpredictable’ with nuclear weapons, and as President-elect was making sweeping statements about U.S. nuclear policy over Twitter. Congress must act to preserve global stability by restricting the circumstances under which the U.S. would be the first nation to use a nuclear weapon.


China Announces Deployment of New Long Range Nuclear Missile

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Video - According to China's Global Times newspaper, the People's Liberation Army has deployed its newest intercontinental ballistic missile to Heilongjiang Province. The article cited eyewitness photos culled from Chinese social media by news media in Taiwan and Hong Kong. The photos showed heavy missile launchers, also known as transporter/erector/launchers (TELs) moving through Daqing City in Heilongjiang.

The DF-41 is described by Global Times as the most advanced ICBM in the world. It reportedly has a range of 8,699 miles, enough to hit any target on Earth with the exception of South America and parts of Antarctica. It can carry up to 12 nuclear warheads, and travels on China's nationwide network of roads to make it difficult to track down and destroy.

While China tends to be low-key regarding nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence, this seems like a deliberate move to make a subtle threat. After all, it was probably completely unnecessary to move strategic nuclear weapons through a city of 2.9 million people, unless you want to get the word out. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has been talking tough about China as well as enhancing America's ballistic missile shield. If China wanted to overwhelm the shield with more missiles, the DF-41 would be the way to do it.
Last edited by vox_mundi on Thu 26 Jan 2017, 13:27:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Fully Automated Combat Robots Pt. 2

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 26 Jan 2017, 12:56:10

Why It Matters That Human Poker Pros Are Getting Trounced By an AI

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We’re at the halfway point of the epic 20-day, 150,000-hand “Brains Vs. Artificial Intelligence” Texas Hold’em Poker tournament, and a machine named Libratus is trouncing a quartet of professional human players. Should the machine maintain its substantial lead—currently at $701,242—it will be considered a major milestone in the history of AI. Here’s why.

... The Libratus-Bridges collaboration is fueled by tremendous computing power (Bridges has access to 15 million core hours of computation and 2.5 petabytes of data) and the wondrous, adaptive powers of machine learning. Libratus is obviously going to alter its behavior over time, learning from its opponents and its own successes and mistakes. At a qualitative level, Libratus won’t be the same AI going into the tournament as it will be going out. It’s also worth pointing out that the human players have been sharing notes and tips with each other, hunting for any weaknesses in the machine’s gameplay.

Incredibly, these learning algorithms are not specific to poker.
“I didn’t realize how good it was until today. I felt like I was playing against someone who was cheating, like it could see my cards,” ... “I’m not accusing it of cheating. It was just that good.”

- Dong Kim - after returning to his hotel room to prep for the next day

Jason Les and Daniel McAulay, two of the other top poker players challenging the machine, describe its play in much the same way. After the match’s tenth day, all three players said they could potentially pull out a draw but not a win. “It’s pretty clear at this point that an outright human win is off the table,” Les said. “We’re too deep in the hole.” Since then, they’ve fallen deeper into their hole. By Monday night, though the humans won the day’s play, the machine’s lead over its nearest competitor stood at $701,242.

As of the weekend, Libratus (which means “balanced” in Latin) amassed a lead of $459,154 in chips in nearly 5,000 hands played by the end of its ninth day. By the end of play on Monday, the machine’s lead stood at a daunting $701,242 over the second place contender. Frustratingly for the players, they can’t seem to get a step up on the artificial poker player. “The bot gets better and better every day,” said Chou in a Carnegie Mellon statement. “It’s like a tougher version of us.”
“The first couple of days, we had high hopes. But every time we find a weakness, it learns from us and the weakness disappears the next day.


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The poker-playing AI is getting smarter and the humans are getting tired

With a little over 80,000 hands played, out of 120,000 total, the humans are down by roughly $750,000, a massive amount that will be all but impossible to come back from.

“We’re all down about the price of a small house,” said Jason Les, chatting with onlookers about the score while he played.

... So far the AI’s main advantage is its ability to remain unpredictable. While the pros appreciate the way Libratus is playing, they don’t believe there are many tricks they can pick up from the system. “There are a lot of things I see Libratus do that I really like. However, they are really only possible because they are mixed and randomized by the reasoning of a computer,” says Les. “Its balanced dispersion of hand ranges into different actions is not really feasible for the human mind to imitate correctly.
One of the things Libratus does well is bluff.

Mastering the art of the bluff requires AI that can calculate risk and reward in real time without having perfect information about what its opponent can do in return. It implies the system does more than simply play a perfectly safe game where it only grinds out wins when it has the stronger hand. The team from Carnegie Mellon University that built the Libratus poker bot hopes this kind of system can, after being tested on games like poker, learn how to tackle thorny decisions in the world of military strategy, cybersecurity, and even medicine


Top 10 Hot Artificial Intelligence (AI) Technologies

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How to Make America’s Robots Great Again

Here’s what you might call an alternative fact: American factories still make a lot of stuff. In 2016, the United States hit a manufacturing record, producing more goods than ever. But you don’t hear much gloating about this because manufacturers made all this stuff without a lot of people. Thanks to automation, we now make 85 percent more goods than we did in 1987, but with only two-thirds the number of workers.

This suggests that while Mr. Trump can browbeat manufacturers into staying in America, he can’t force them to hire many people. Instead, companies will most likely invest in lots and lots of robots.


And there’s another wrinkle to this story: The robots won’t be made in America. They might be made in China.

... “If you look at the comparisons in investment between China and the U.S., we’re going to lose,” said Henrik Christensen, director of the Contextual Robotics Institute at the University of California, San Diego. “The investments in China are billions and billions. I’m not seeing that investment in the U.S. And without that investment, we are going to lose. No doubt.”


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Elon Musk may be gearing up for his strangest announcement yet on artificial intelligence

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO teased that he may have an announcement about "neural lace," a concept he first brought up at Vox Media's Code Conference in June, coming next month on Twitter Wednesday morning.

Musk first described neural lace as a brain-computer system that would link human brains with a computer interface. It would allow humans to achieve "symbiosis with machines" so they could communicate directly with computers without going through a physical interface.

Musk has said a neural lace will help prevent people from becoming "house cats" to artificial intelligence.

"I don't love the idea of being a house cat, but what's the solution? I think one of the solutions that seems maybe the best is to add an AI layer," Musk said in June. "A third, digital layer that could work well and symbiotically."


How Artificial Intelligence Can Be Corrupted To Repress Free Speech

It's easier than you think, even here in America.

... An anonymous source within Facebook last November claimed to the NYT that the company had developed an automated censorship tool for the Communist Party of China -- a token of loyalty CEO Mark Zuckerberg hopes will open the Chinese market to the Western social network. While Facebook likely won't censor user-generated content directly, the effect will be the same if the tool is used by a third-party company in China.

If Facebook is willing to do that in China, what's to stop the company from doing the same here in America at the behest of a Trump administration? What's to keep Twitter, Instagram (which is owned by FB) or Snapchat from following suit? Twitter, Facebook and Intel all declined to comment for this story. However, Dr. Toby Walsh, a leading researcher of AI and current guest professor at the Technical University of Berlin, believes such an outcome is plausible. "When we think of 1984-like scenarios, AI is definitely an enabling technology," he said.

"The thing to remember about these platforms is that the thing that makes them so powerful -- that so many people are on them -- is also what makes them so uniquely threatening to freedom of speech," Frank Pasquale, professor of law at the University of Maryland Carey School of Law said.

A sizable portion of this expression takes the form of online harassment -- even Donald Trump, the newly-installed president of the United States, has leveraged his Twitter feed and followers to attack those critical of his policies.

All of this hate and vitriol has a stifling effect on speech. When constantly inundated with this abuse, many rational people prefer to remain silent or log off entirely. Either way, the effect is the same: The harassment acts as a form of peer censorship.

"An unpopular opinion isn't necessarily harassment." But that decision is often left to those in power. And under authoritarian regimes, you can safely bet that it won't be the will of the people.

These are not small issues and they are not inconsequential, especially given the authoritarian tenor struck by the new presidential administration. "What I find most troubling from over the past few weeks is that you have Trump surrogate Newt Gingrich go on the news and say 'Look, the rules are the president can order someone to do something terrible and then pardon,'" Pasquale noted. He further explained that Trump's current actions are not wholly unprecedented, but rather a "logical extension of the Unitary Executive Theory...which would effectively put the executive branch above the law."

Should our government implement an automated censorship system akin to the one Facebook developed, even if it had only a fraction of the capability of Jigsaw's Conversation AI, the threat to civil liberties and the First Amendment would be immediate and overwhelming.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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