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Is the US weak?

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Is the US weak?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 27 Jul 2016, 04:08:29

America isn’t weaker than China and Russia — it’s just held to a different standard

it’s not that the United States is weak and China and Russia are strong, per se. It’s that the way we think about power in world affairs fundamentally disadvantages the United States, making it seem weaker than it is and its competitors appear stronger than they are.

The United States: A world power perpetually in decline

If a country’s strategic portfolio is essentially the entire world, almost any challenge to its position and interests — or to the order it underpins — can be construed as a sign of weakness. ...

despite having faced numerous strategic setbacks and endured multiple cycles of “declinism,” the United States today finds itself in an enviable position. As Foreign Affairs editor Gideon Rose puts it, the United States “may be richer, stronger, and safer than it has ever been; if not, it is certainly close to it.” Rose continues:

It has a defense budget equivalent to those of the next seven countries combined and together with its allies accounts for three-quarters of all global defense spending. It has unparalleled power-projection capabilities and a globe-spanning intelligence network. It has the world’s reserve currency, the world’s largest economy, and the highest growth rate of any major developed country. It has good demographics, manageable debt, and dynamic, innovating companies that are the envy of the world. And it is at the center of an ever-expanding liberal order that has outwitted, outplayed, and outlasted every rival for three-quarters of a century.


Paradoxically, the reflexiveness with which observers discern US weakness is a testament to both its preeminence and the inability of any other country (such as China) or coalition to replace it as the underwriter of world order.

China: a resurgent power chipping away at the current world order ...

While China watchers focus intensely on its growing ability to challenge US Navy operations in the Western Pacific, the core of China’s strength is economic. It is the world’s largest exporter and trading country, and at roughly $3.2 trillion its stockpile of foreign exchange reserves is also the biggest. Finally, despite its slowing growth rate, its gross domestic product is on course to overtake America’s soon.

With its prodigious economic power, China is proactively deploying a range of initiatives to draw the Asia-Pacific more tightly into its strategic orbit and, in time, gain greater influence across Eurasia. ...

Although the United States lobbied vigorously against the AIIB, 57 countries — including many of America’s closest allies — signed up to be founding members. ...

China is pursuing these initiatives under the auspices of the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) project, which, in its most expansive conception, would cover 65 countries and approximately 40 percent of the world economy. ...

Few observers would dispute that China is getting stronger, whatever criteria one uses. Tellingly, though, it is not asked to sustain the current world order or assume responsibility for its renewal — at least not to nearly the same extent as the United States.

Moreover, while it (properly) calls for a greater role within central international institutions and criticizes what it regards as the intrusiveness of today’s system, it is unprepared to offer an alternative. The chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of China’s National People’s Congress, Fu Ying, observes that while China is “dissatisfied and ready to criticize,” it is “not ready to propose a new design.” ...

On the flip side, it is rarely charged with weakness for setbacks that would likely render the United States vulnerable to that accusation: Its conduct in the East and South China Seas has alienated many of its neighbors; it has been unable to dissuade North Korea from increasingly brazen provocations; and it has had little success boosting its soft power around the world.

Russia: a power constrained on all sides

The case that China exhibits strength in world affairs is plausible, even though it has to clear a lower threshold than the United States. The argument that Russia does so, however, is perplexing. Its economy is performing poorly, its demographic outlook is bleak, and its behavior in recent years has given renewed purpose and momentum to NATO, the very organization whose expansion it resents most.

Further, its alleged strategic alliance with China is, in fact, an increasingly asymmetric relationship. While the two countries routinely hail their friendship and criticize the reach of Western power — witness the joint statement they released last month — China has exhibited little compunction over encroaching upon Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. It has eclipsed Russia as the preeminent economic power in Central Asia and exploited Russia’s economic frailty to extract significant concessions on energy imports.

Meanwhile, as China seeks to find productive uses for its surplus labor and accelerate its “March West” campaign, it discerns a compelling opportunity to resettle millions of Chinese in Russia’s sparsely populated Far East. Zbigniew Brzezinski argues that unless Russia “become[s] a major and influential nation-state that is part of a unifying Europe,” it will be progressively less capable of “withstand[ing] growing territorial-demographic pressure from China, which is increasingly inclined as its power grows to recall the ‘unequal’ treaties Moscow imposed on Beijing in times past.” ...

Declining internally, and increasingly encircled along both its eastern and western peripheries, Russia is far less capable of playing a constructive role in Eurasia’s evolution than it was prior to its annexation of Crimea in 2014. In the early years of this decade, Vladimir Putin often expressed his hope that Russia would function as a vibrant economic bridge between Western Europe and the Asia-Pacific.

Today, however, with the prospect of a rapprochement with the former becoming less likely, and the potential of its outreach to the latter inherently limited, it is far less capable of fulfilling that intermediary role. Instead, it has largely been reduced to demonstrating strength by destabilizing eastern Ukraine and contributing to the chaos that has engulfed Syria. ...

Power is relative

The bottom line is that comparisons of US, Chinese, and Russian strength in world affairs are misleading without taking into account the relevant benchmarks. The United States is asked to oversee a world order that withstands increasing shocks; recognizes the demands and grievances of newly confident blocs of power; and devises rules of the road for novel domains of interaction, such as cyberspace.

That task is more daunting than staking incremental, concerted challenges to said system (China), and far more demanding than poking occasional holes in it (Russia). While the United States faces significant challenges at home and abroad, it is better positioned to manage complexity in the 21st century than any other country.
http://www.vox.com/2016/7/26/12281000/us-america-weak-china-russia


Long story short, from that article:

* USA is the lynchpin of the global system
* It's the global superpower, with the hugest military, more defense spending than the next 8 nations combined
* China is a rising power, already has a huge commercial empire, but otherwise it's not going to have anything for a long time, to "replace" the US-dominated system
* China has a "March West" campaign, to settle Siberia. This is concerning to some in Russia, even though they've allied.
* Russia is "constrained on all sides," and "is reduced to demonstrating strength by destabilizing eastern Ukraine and contributing to the chaos that has engulfed Syria"
* Russian economy is in decline

Overall, the article says the US is judged unfairly. It's easy to say other nations are "strong," and the US "weak," because the latter is a goliath and responsible for the entire world order. Some setbacks, don't really mean it's "weak."

Also, the writer concludes that the US is in the best position overall, for the future, compared to any other nation.

Some things, that I would note:

* US has the highest GDP in the world at $17 trillion, one trillion more than EU
* US has more GDP growth, than the EU or Japan

A big policy in the future looks to be the "pivot to Asia." US lost out with the China Bank; some American allies actually joined it, as founding members.

But the US is making some moves lately in the Pacific, to compete with China.

The estbalishment wants the TPP trade bloc passed, as a way to increase GDP growth, and also tie the Pacific together under US leadership.

From the article, this is the summation of the US position in the world:

It has a defense budget equivalent to those of the next seven countries combined and together with its allies accounts for three-quarters of all global defense spending. It has unparalleled power-projection capabilities and a globe-spanning intelligence network. It has the world’s reserve currency, the world’s largest economy, and the highest growth rate of any major developed country.

It has good demographics, manageable debt, and dynamic, innovating companies that are the envy of the world. And it is at the center of an ever-expanding liberal order that has outwitted, outplayed, and outlasted every rival for three-quarters of a century.


So, does anyone have thoughts about this? Is the US actually "weak," compared to other nations? Would isolationism and retreat from globalism and world leadership, increase or DECREASE, overall GDP?

And those of you that are against "the US global establishment" -- do you recognize the reality that even Putin says the US is the only superpower, and Russia needs it, and the world needs it? Do you guys actually realize the US really is the "lynchpin" to the world, and that even if it withdrew, there's "nothing else to replace it with?"
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby regardingpo » Wed 27 Jul 2016, 05:59:15

Hey look, it's the resident cheerleader for uncle sam! He thinks that warmongering neocons are the world's best hope!

Too bad comrade Trump will crush his little dreams loool.
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 27 Jul 2016, 06:18:14

Yes RPO, 6 can cut & paste straight out Doublespeak propaganda & with the opposite of any hint of critique, he is successfully programmed.

6, more of us are worried about your country's propensity to lie it's arse off all day, whilst possessing all this power, rather than your article's preposterous notion.
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 27 Jul 2016, 09:23:52

Six, simple straight forward question for you

Did you ever volunteer for military service? Anything from National Guard up to Special Forces qualifies.

Two follow up questions,
Did any of your High School class mates volunteer?
What percentage?

I await your response, and there is no wrong answer other than ignoring the questions.
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Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby GHung » Wed 27 Jul 2016, 10:24:51

Another question: Can a nation populated by a high percentage of ill-informed people, who spend $billions deluding themselves, be "strong"?

By many metrics, the US is mediocre at best, excepting things like consumption and waste levels.
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 27 Jul 2016, 19:42:03

Tanada wrote:Did you ever volunteer for military service?


No, but I almost did one time, and I was always a lifelong "Reagan-Bush" type Republican. I've only been a Democrat since Obama. The only views I've changed on, were some domestic policy things.

This thread isn't about the military, though.

It's like, there's such a theme lately of, "make America great again," and that "America is in decline," I'm just considering the question of whether that's even true or not.

The US already has good GDP growth, compared to the EU etc. Joe Biden said the other day that the US economy added more jobs, in the last seven years, than the rest of the industrial world *combined*.

The US has the highest GDP, in the entire world, richer than the EU or China or anyone else:

1 - US - $18 trillion
2 - EU - $16 trillion
3 - China - $11 trillion
4 - Japan - $4 trillion


Isn't it already "great?" How much richer could it get? Maybe the real problem is we just need a few Australian type domestic policies thrown in too, and then the people that aren't currently happy with the Establishment, would be happier?

I forget the exact figure, but Biden was saying US gdp growth is something like 200 times Japan's growth, and 20 times Australia's growth. Are things really so bad?



The "Establishment" has a gameplan. Pivot to Asia, and the TPP, and the idea is that it will link the pacific democracies together, and also bring China under more US economic leadership. If the US doesn't do TPP, then China is going to make their own TPP, and tie all those countries to IT.

I don't know guys, I'm just sayin', maybe the government's got something cookin'. They moved 60% of the Navy out to the west pacific. They're ready to do this TPP. They've got Australia on board, and Japan and South Korea already were.

GDP growth is already better than anyone else -- with these new plans, growth will go up even more.

The "establishment" wants growth, and the US to stay #1 -- isn't that good for everyone?

Maybe things are set to get better and "great again" anyway, with just the good old comfortable shoe "Establishment?"

That's all I'm sayin', just something to consider. :lol:

EDIT: by the way, this thread could go in a lot of directions. That was an interesting article in Vox. I didn't know about China's "March West" program. I think if I were Russian, that would make me a little nervous. 8O

Is This China’s Eurasian Century?
China’s response to the U.S. pivot to Asia — a “march west” — faces serious hurdles.


Some Chinese analysts propose that China should instead “march west,” looking for potential geopolitical allies and new economic opportunities in the vast Eurasian continent. They also point out that this “march west” has the additional benefit of boosting economic development in China’s underdeveloped western regions.

When the Silk Road Economic Belt (the Belt for short) was announced in September 2013, it seemed that advocates of the “march west” had won the full endorsement of China’s top leaders. The Belt is an ambitious Chinese initiative that aims to enhance interconnectivity and economic cooperation among Eurasian countries located along what used to be the ancient Silk Road.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/is-this-chinas-eurasian-century/


I just find this interesting. US has "Pivot to Asia," India has "Act East," and China has "March West."
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 27 Jul 2016, 21:06:49

In terms of bridges, roads and railroads American infrastructure is falling apart at the seams. That makes us weak in a very real way, without good roads and bridges and rail capacity we can't move goods from producer to consumer.
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 27 Jul 2016, 22:08:42

Subjectivist wrote:In terms of bridges, roads and railroads American infrastructure is falling apart at the seams. That makes us weak in a very real way, without good roads and bridges and rail capacity we can't move goods from producer to consumer.


That's true, too. But I'm just arguing the other side of the coin.

This is an interesting site, to compare stats between different countries. The US / China comparison:

http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.asp?form=form&country1=china&country2=united-states-of-america&Submit=COMPARE

China has a billion people, yet the US has about twice as many paved roads, and around three times the railroads.

The BIGGEST advantage China has.. it's got far lower debt, about $1 trillion compared to USA's $17 trillion in debt. And, China has $3 trillion in gold and foreign currency reserves.

Really, I think maybe there's no way to get away from globalism. The reality is that China is trying to MAKE what we've ALREADY got. They're globalist too (very much so), and are making a play to LEAD it.

This is just my opinion, but all we need in the US is just a living wage minimum wage bill, fix universal healthcare, and do the free college.

That's the kind of way forward I'd be interested in, as a voter.. don't throw globalism out the window, just make it work better for the people that don't feel like they're benefiting from it.

Long story short is just that Bernie Sanders was right.. a lot of Americans don't realize how "great" America is, because most of the income gains from this global success has been going to the top 1%.. but don't throw the system out, just tax it a bit and share the cake a little more. That's my opinion, anyhow.
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 28 Jul 2016, 18:23:51

Blah, blah, blah, the USA is exceptional. Blah, the USA is great, blah, blah. The USA is the best blah in the blah blah. If the USA is so great and exceptional then why do Americans feel the need to repeat this all the time? Shouldn't this American exceptionalism be obvious to all? Shouldn't this greatness of the USA be equally obvious? The USA is the most hated country in the world and Americans are the most despised people on the planet. That is why you need to keep repeating to yourselves these lies, to hide from the truth.

How foolish do you have to be to still believe this American greatness crap? Exceptionally foolish if you ask me! LOL!
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 28 Jul 2016, 19:01:31

President Hillary will have a more muscular foreign policy then President Obama has had.

Its not so much a matter of the US being weak as of Obama's foreign policy having been weak.

For instance, Hillary favors providing US arms to the Ukrainians so they can defend themselves from the Russians, while Obama won't give the Ukrainians arms.

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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 28 Jul 2016, 19:34:04

The US is *not* weak by any means.
It is brittle; perhaps even exceptionally so.

Now the thing about brittle and strong, is that you really can carry the flag a long, long way in this condition, and live well and comfortably, with all the glutinous luxuries of the modern world at your disposal.

But you can not endure true loss.

Russia and China are kinda the opposite; they aren't terribly strong, have little ability to project power anywhere, at anytime... but, if you go to them, and engage them in battle; they will withstand their losses relatively well; while US losses of cities, ships, and/or soldiers would create epic chaos within the country, and likely break the crystal perfect balance the US FED maintains in our financial world.

What I object to, is people who cite our strength, and say the world must obey, but are completely unwilling to entertain the notion that exercising our strength could (and would) cost thousands of US servicemen their lives, destroy many dozens of extremely expensive naval vessels, and perhaps literally hundreds of aircraft. We've fought puny twirps for so long that we've convinced ourselves that the world is only made of puny twirps who won't dare hurt us, but whom we have the right to kill at will, in any numbers we might wish by any means we find convenient or amusing.

If you want to suggest conflict with Russia and China; I want to read your acknowledgement that the price of victory would be very very high, but that you think it an acceptable cost. That's an honestly rational opinion, btw. If you think it worth the lives of thousands of American soldiers and hundreds of destroyed aircraft and a few dozen sunk vessels to kill the Russian airfield at Latakia or a Chinese base in the SCS; OK; that's fair. But admit it openly and own its consequence.
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 28 Jul 2016, 21:16:04

Plantagenet wrote:For instance, Hillary favors providing US arms to the Ukrainians so they can defend themselves from the Russians, while Obama won't give the Ukrainians arms.


It's important to defend democracy abroad in a place like Ukraine, so that the line doesn't move and then one day you wake up and the Republican nominee for President is saying how much he admires Putin, and then the next day he outright asks Putin to cyberattack our country.

I've got the Democrat convention on tv right now, and they've got a retired general speaking and Democrats are yelling "USA! USA! USA!" all through his speech.

The general said, "the FREE people of the world, look to America. America is the last, best hope, for peace and liberty for all humankind. We are the greatest country, on this planet."

Again, this is the DEMOCRAT convention. 8O Meanwhile, Republicans talk about how much they love Putin.

Should the Democratic Party be the bulwark of democracy abroad? Of course it should, I say. Or else one day we won't have it at home, either.

There can be no Democrat, without democracy.

And far lefty green party / Bernie Sanders types should get hip to it, because they'd get suppressed (along with small d democracy values in general) if this country ever got a truly Putin-aligned government.

And look folks, there's nothing wrong with being a Republican. I was a lifelong Republican before switching over to D in '08. But look, Putinism should not be the Republican Party. It's not American. It never has been.

Now I'm gonna go and finish watching the general's speech, at the Democratic Party Convention.
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 28 Jul 2016, 22:35:57

Plantagenet wrote:President Hillary will have a more muscular foreign policy then President Obama has had


That's right. She may turn out to be the America's Margaret Thatcher, Iron Lady for democracy and the American Way.

Image

We'll see how her speech is tonight. I saw Paul Begala on tv, and he said tonight's convention program was so hawkish, "because Clinton was a Goldwater girl, before she met Martin Luther King Jr., and became a Democrat. These are just her core midwestern values: faith, flag, and country."
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 29 Jul 2016, 12:30:40

Sixstrings wrote:Clinton was a Goldwater girl, before she met Martin Luther King Jr., and became a Democrat. These are just her core midwestern values: faith, flag, and country."


Actually her core values today are the same as obama's: i.e. open borders, endless foreign wars, massive surveillance of the American people, a 20 trillion dollar national debt, and free trade deals that have destroyed the middle class.

And you could see the D party values on display when they D convention had a moment of silence for the slain police officers murdered in Dallas and Baton Rouge.

The Ds started chanting "BLACK LIVES MATTER BLACK LIVES MATTER" during the moment of silence for the slain officers.

Very disrespectful. :shock:
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 29 Jul 2016, 16:30:55

Sixstrings wrote:EDIT: by the way, this thread could go in a lot of directions. That was an interesting article in Vox. I didn't know about China's "March West" program. I think if I were Russian, that would make me a little nervous.


You're kidding me right? Russia is *NORTH* of China, a few years ago they had a honest, sit-down, heart-to-heart and settled their border issues in a rational, win-win format.

March West is about the Stan's (Kazak, Uzbek, Kyrg, et al); and about curtailing separatism in Xinjiang in particular (for at least as long as it takes for the Han to outnumber the indigineous by 10 to 1...). Its not even about territorial acquisition. China wants to develop, and ship through, these areas, not administer them; and they are willing to spend large sums to make it happen.

The idea that the US could ever be a great trading partner for Kyrgyzstan to replace China is beyond stupid. Geography trumps all here; about the only thing the US can do is run interference and help keep the stan's mired deep in poverty.

I will acknowledge that some folks think Russia has territorial ambitions in the stans, but I think this is a complete misread; like the Baltics, the stans offer nothing that Russia doesn't already have in abundance, and bring with them very large infrastructure and political deficits that Russia is simply not equipped to deal with. So no, Russia doesn't really give a flip about Chinese investments in the stans as long as it enhances stabilty and makes it easier to trade with Eastern China.

So Six, you might as well give it up; there is no possible route of setting Russia against China remaining on the table, likely for the remainder of the century. Your guys, through an amazing display of incompetence, managed to remove them all.
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 29 Jul 2016, 17:58:22

Why 6 strings needs to post 90% of what he writes is just repeating whatever thrust CNN is pushing. He didn't notice the lack of US flags at the DNC (go back & look), where great Patriot Clinton gave her imbecilic acceptance speech (is it proper to use 20 wpm cadence other than when addressing the hard of hearing or mentally deficient?).
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby Cog » Fri 29 Jul 2016, 19:14:45

Hillary Clinton has something medically wrong with her.
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby gollum » Thu 11 Aug 2016, 02:30:39

I don't believe comparisons of defense budgets are at all valid as an indicator of strength. First because a huge proportion of our defense budget goes towards pay and benefits which are far higher than any other major power. Second because while nations like China and Russia can concentrate on a handful of strategic areas we're spread thin throughout the entire world. Third because as far as spending on weapons goes we spend much more cash then they do on comparable weapons systems. I'm willing to bet that in a major war with either China or Russia we'd have our hands quite full.
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Re: Is the US weak?

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 11 Aug 2016, 10:10:59

"I don't believe comparisons of defense budgets are at all valid as an indicator of strength."

No shit, ya think? North Korea has a pretty big military. Should we envy them? NEED...MORE...GOOSE-STEPPING!
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