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Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusion

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Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusion

Unread postby dissident » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 19:12:46

Image

The reply by McFaul in Russian is that the US can take out 90% of Russian ICBMs if there is any conflict. This is epically insane self-delusion. The US has no capacity to intercept non-ballistic warheads in the upper atmosphere or even on their approach to their targets. The US cannot take out Russian ICBMs during the boost phase either unless they deploy the ABM launchers inside Russia itself. Russia is not Lichtenstein.

So now it is clear why the Washington deciders are so brazen. They actually believe they can win a nuclear war.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 19:23:28

How absurd. Nobody and nothing on this planet would win a nuclear warn. Thanks dissident for showcasing some rather disturbing thinking on the part of leaders of the US. Just another example of the tremendous instability now inherent in human societies.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 19:47:11

"How absurd. Nobody and nothing on this planet would win a nuclear warn."

Of course they can't, and of course they know that. All the war drums are not only for the Russians; they are setting us up for something, and its going to be big. This is major PychOps.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 19:56:11

dissident wrote:Image

The reply by McFaul in Russian is that the US can take out 90% of Russian ICBMs if there is any conflict. This is epically insane self-delusion. The US has no capacity to intercept non-ballistic warheads in the upper atmosphere or even on their approach to their targets. The US cannot take out Russian ICBMs during the boost phase either unless they deploy the ABM launchers inside Russia itself. Russia is not Lichtenstein.

So now it is clear why the Washington deciders are so brazen. They actually believe they can win a nuclear war.


Not sure if I understand your post, are you saying McFaul (former ambassador) said that the US could take out 90% of Russia's nukes?

From what I see on his twitter, he says there are no winners in nuclear war (obviously):

Michael McFaul ‏@McFaul 3h3 hours ago
Michael McFaul Retweeted Лия Ахеджакова
Could not agree more. No winners in nuclear war.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 20:00:20

onlooker wrote:How absurd. Nobody and nothing on this planet would win a nuclear warn. Thanks dissident for showcasing some rather disturbing thinking on the part of leaders of the US. Just another example of the tremendous instability now inherent in human societies.


He's the FORMER ambassador. Now he's a private citizen and just a poli sci professor.

Ambassadors aren't "leaders," it's just political campaign donor patronage glamor jobs. They aren't representative of any kind of establishment thinking.

If people want to know what establishment thinking is, then pay attention to the US military brass and pentagon.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 20:12:39

I am not sure what the real deal with this cited article is. It this a personal opinion of Mcfaul or is he relating what his impressions of the US leadership mindset is. Maybe dissident can enlighten us. Six, while it is true what your saying ultimately the decision rests with Civilians especially the President in terms of something as big as a nuclear strike. That is something an ambassador to Russia might have some inkling of. Finally, Short yes it could be some sort of mind games US is playing, though this may also be just an off the cuff private opinion/remark by this fmr. ambassador.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby dissident » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 20:32:55

onlooker wrote:I am not sure what the real deal with this cited article is. It this a personal opinion of Mcfaul or is he relating what his impressions of the US leadership mindset is. Maybe dissident can enlighten us. Six, while it is true what your saying ultimately the decision rests with Civilians especially the President in terms of something as big as a nuclear strike. That is something an ambassador to Russia might have some inkling of. Finally, Short yes it could be some sort of mind games US is playing, though this may also be just an off the cuff private opinion/remark by this fmr. ambassador.


I screwed up, it was Rogozin who made the statement and not McFaul:

http://www.rbc.ru/society/28/06/2013/863813.shtml

Rogozin is a blowhard who needs to be fired and McFaul has made typical "Russia is crap" statements before. They came together in a perfect combination on Twitter.

But the ABM shield is designed to give one side the capacity to win a nuclear war and it is being developed on a continuous basis.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 20:42:06

But the ABM shield is designed to give one side the capacity to win a nuclear war and it is being developed on a continuous basis.

Yes this goes back to the day of President Reagan and "Star Wars". so the actions demonstrate that at least some in Pentagon and the leadership have a "belief" in a winnable nuclear war. Again insane. If nothing more how do you account for submarines cruising who knows where who can launch at a given notice. In fact, maybe someone can confirm but if a particular submarine was left without command and control communications for a particular period of time, they presumably would have total autonomous discretion to launch on their own.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 21:04:47

onlooker wrote:I am not sure what the real deal with this cited article is. It this a personal opinion of Mcfaul or is he relating what his impressions of the US leadership mindset is. Maybe dissident can enlighten us. Six, while it is true what your saying ultimately the decision rests with Civilians especially the President in terms of something as big as a nuclear strike. That is something an ambassador to Russia might have some inkling of. Finally, Short yes it could be some sort of mind games US is playing, though this may also be just an off the cuff private opinion/remark by this fmr. ambassador.


Well yes that's true, I actually don't know much about McFaul and what his background was. As ambassador, presumably he would be privy to quite a lot of things.

But I don't understand dissident's post, I don't speak Russian so I can't look at the tiwtter and follow the conversation to figure it out.

Context and a full story is important. Perhaps Diss could do a full objective post on it and present the entire twitter conversation and translate the russian parts for us.

You can't just say "the former US ambassador said this outrageous thing, here it is in Russian" and it's just one sentence taken out of a conversation.

That sounds like an interesting story, so let's hear the whole story. I would need to see the context on that, it doesn't sound like anything a former ambassador would say.

About your other points --

Onlooker, if you are American then you know just as much as I do that the USA ain't ever gonna nuke Russia or take out Russia's nukes.

Democracies do not work that way.

Things just aren't simple. Let's say someone watches RT all day so after a while they just start agreeing with Putin. So okay, call your congressman up and tell him you think Assad should stay and we need to work with Russia more. And your congressman would take your views into account, but then he's also aware that the whole alliance we're in says that assad has to go.

So I don't know what you all want. Do you want the US to ally with Russia, with Russia in charge? That would be like a tail wagging a dog, the USA is as big as all of the EU where Russia has the GDP of Italy. And the US already has a global alliance, all over the world.

I just don't know what you all want, other than "Putin is right" and I guess you want Obama to follow Putin?

Him and John Kerry have actually already done that, quite a bit.

The thing about Syria is just what Obama says, that there's a 65 member international coalition that all says one thing and then there is Russia and Iran that says another thing. Those 65 nations in that international coalition aren't going to just flip and follow Russia. They have a different opinion, than Russia and Iran do.

(my hunch is that Putin could get a compromise that's good enough for his interests and then just join the existing international coalition.

What he's probably doing is just playing his poker hand too much, and too long, and he needed to cut a deal by now and the further he goes it's not even any good for Russia's interests)
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 21:26:52

dissident wrote:Rogozin is a blowhard who needs to be fired and McFaul has made typical "Russia is crap" statements before. They came together in a perfect combination on Twitter.


So you saw something and jumped to the conclusion so fast that it was the awful american ambassador that said it. So who is Rogozin?

I'm not a nukes expert but I've never heard any such thing that "the US can wipe out 90% of Russia's nukes."

Diss -- what is Russia actually defending? Is it really the nation called Russia, or Russia's right to build an empire? The problem with that latter is that it butts up against all the other countries in the world and that's why there keeps being pushback.

If Russia had more allies on this Assad thing, then it would be different, but the only others that agree is just Assad himself and Iran.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 22:06:03

I'm not a nukes expert either, just an avid reader of Tom Clancy novels. :-D If either Russia or the USA strikes first in a surprise attack, they can take out 90% of the other side's warheads with an expenditure of 20-25% of their own warheads. You hit the land-based ICBMs in hardened silos, at least two warheads per silo, also you hit the land-based bombers and their nuclear arsenals, also you strike the submarine bases - each side has about a third of the missile subs deployed, the other two thirds in port or in drydock.

The 1/3 of the submerged nuclear subs, each with dozens of MIRV'd missiles that survive, are a guaranteed reprisal against the aggressor country. If the side that was attacked exacts reprisals on military targets only, they will do a substantial amount of damage comparable to the initial strike they experienced themselves, and a stalemate will exist. If the reprisal is against civilian population centers, the aggressor country effectively ceases to exist - most people, most crops, most infrastructure of all types will be destroyed - leaving only the aggressor submarines to finish the destruction of the other side.

That is the grim math of MAD. It's not the 90% of the enemy warheads you can destroy by striking first, it is the 10% you cannot destroy at all. That is the reason that each side has at least 10X the warheads they need - typically 25-50X - to ensure that whatever is left is sufficient to destroy the attacker. It has been too terrible to contemplate for 70 years. Loose words have been bandied about by both sides for at least 65 years. But the only nukes ever fired in anger exploded at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. McFaul's words do not compare to those threats spoken by Khrushchev to the US media - and McFaul is powerless now.

If you want a true nightmare scenario, imagine a limited nuclear war in the Middle East, perhaps an Arab-Israeli war. Half the world's oil reserves inaccessible overnight....
Last edited by KaiserJeep on Fri 27 Nov 2015, 22:12:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 22:12:15

"The reply by McFaul in Russian is that the US can take out 90% of Russian ICBMs if there is any conflict. " Lets drop back to this original statement. And lets assume even that 90% isn't correct: it's really 99%. In that case only a few of the Russian MIRV's make it to some major US cities. So that's the definition of "winning": tens of millions of Americans die but we kill many times more Russians?

Well, hell, color me optimistic. LOL.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby Lore » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 22:18:43

So, Rock, it's alright then that those that make it through mostly land in Texas? LOL.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 22:25:06

The destruction is actually going to be pretty symmetrical, given that each side has multiple submarines submerged at any time. The Russians have fewer operational SSBN's than we do, but their Typhoon's are bigger and carry more missiles than does a US Ohio-class sub. When each side agreed to scale back the number of SSBN's, each side armed the other class of submarine (the nuclear SSN hunter-killer subs) with cruise missiles that can be fired horizontally from torpedo tubes. Today there are more warheads under the ocean than ever before, safe from the enemy, ready to exact revenge. The grim math of MAD still applies. The cruise missiles strike at supersonic speeds, meaning one to three hours of flight time versus the 20-30 minutes of a ballistic missile striking from space - so you get a bit more time to contemplate the end of everything and everybody.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby radon1 » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 22:27:37

dissident wrote:Rogozin is a blowhard who needs to be fired and McFaul has made typical "Russia is crap" statements before. They came together in a perfect combination on Twitter.


Two clowns of comparable talent clashed on Twitter. Typical stuff.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 22:30:36

Houston might be a target but I suspect low on the list. NYC and LA are much juicier targets. Might be time to think about relocating to Omaha.

But the good news: millions of you consumers would stop creating GHG by burning fossil fuel products. LOL.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby Lore » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 22:38:13

The point is, it's all just okay as long as it's nimby.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby Cog » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 22:53:24

If we conducted a first strike on the Russians, depending on how good their early warning systems are, there is a good possibility we could hit most of their land based missiles still in their silos. Also, it is reasonable to assume that every Russian Typhon class sub has an American attack sub shadowing it. Combine this with some cyber warfare being conducted simultaneously, I think the 90% number is somewhat valid.

I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks. :-D
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby Lore » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 23:15:25

Sounds like, George C. Scott (Gen. 'Buck' Turgidson) in Dr. Strangelove talk.
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Re: Former US ambassador to Russia reveals dangerous delusio

Unread postby Cog » Fri 27 Nov 2015, 23:31:24

Exactly
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