[onlooker]

I have made this post just now. I thought perhaps it is worthy of discussion though to some in may seem almost tinfoil or absurd. It is consistent with our military intervention past and present as well as our current geopolitical alignment and even our primitive impulses. Finally, desperation might make this scenario even more likely. So my question is how likely or not is this scenario below or something similar?
Since we are talking theoretically I will let my imagine run wild haha. Seriously, I do not see the entire world population able to change away from fossil fuels, the world is too wed now to FF in its necessary daily chores of surviving. I would envision a possibility that I think as not been discussed much on this site and that is of the US and also China and Russia taking preemptive action to block their countries off and take over key strategic resource areas in other places on the planet. This would involve the rather brutal calculus of allowing the rest of the world to basically wither away and die. Now you may ask what of the nuclear weapons of India, Pakistan, Israel and France hope I did not miss any. They would be taken offline by a careful and massive cyber attack coordinated jointly by these three powers. Then basically their is NO way anyone in the world could stop these plans because of the overwhelming military might of these three countries. Then and only then can these three engage in restructuring their entire societies including energy-wise. Of course in this scenario overall global population would be reduced dramatically making many current problems manageable for these "lucky" three. Anyway theoretical but R did say it was okay to engage in hypothesis.

[ralfy]

Very likely they will attack each other. As the situation worsens, military forces will take control of resources for their own use even from the civilization populations that they are supposed to "work" for or even protect. Helpless, civilians will attack each other.

In the end, surviving civilians will at best live in subsistence as the military preys on them, and in turn the same forces will devolve into armed gangs.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Very likely they will attack each other. As the situation worsens, military forces will take control of resources for their own use even from the civilization populations that they are supposed to "work" for or even protect. Helpless, civilians will attack each other.

In the end, surviving civilians will at best live in subsistence as the military preys on them, and in turn the same forces will devolve into armed gangs.

You have no more credible fantasies to peddle than bad movie plots? OK then.

[Subjectivist]

If you are going for it go whole hog, you need to EMP the whole planet. With careful preparation before hand you can have crucial system backups in place for your own country and stored food to keep your civilians healthy during the ensuing mass die off. If say China does this then in a year there will be 1.5 Billion healthy Chinese on a planet with about 3 Billion total, plus all their stuff still works. They can go wherever they want and take whatever they want because everyone else is occupied with just subsistence survival. Actually any of the five nuclear powers that have SLBM capacity could do it.

[onlooker]

Very likely they will attack each other. As the situation worsens, military forces will take control of resources for their own use even from the civilization populations that they are supposed to "work" for or even protect. Helpless, civilians will attack each other.

In the end, surviving civilians will at best live in subsistence as the military preys on them, and in turn the same forces will devolve into armed gangs.

You have no more credible fantasies to peddle than bad movie plots? OK then.

So you don't believe this is already happening? Sounds like ralfy is describing the United States presence in most of the world. You know, military bases in 120 countries.

Syria and Egypt and Iraq are all in shambles because they hate our Western democracy and are jealous of Walmart and commuting? Not because we need mid-east oil.

Bravo P, you are pointing out that much of this is already occurring not a bad movie plot OS. Look at China they are busy and have already bought land and assets from many areas. Look at Africa it has been bought by not just some countries but by Mutual Funds. Cmon if people have a problem with this scenario use credible retorts not just say oh that is a fantasy. As they say we are reaching the time of taking off the white gloves.

[onlooker]

Ha, so Sub you see more likely an EMP attack rather then a cyber attack. Interesting.

[Subjectivist]

Ha, so Sub you see more likely an EMP attack rather then a cyber attack. Interesting.

With an EMP you shut down all the farm equipment, all the delivery truck and all the railroads. America except for those living in the farmlands, starves. Same in Europe. To a certain extent it also badly hurts India, Pakistan, Egypt, Argentina for the same reasons but not quite as bad as us and Canada with our widely separated crops and urban centers.

[onlooker]

Yeah, Outcast see no evil , hear no evil, talk no evil. Or better yet put your head in the sand like the ostrich.

[onlooker]

Haha, too much time P on computer delving into uncomfortable and unsolvable problems. That is not a diagnosis in case you think I am a Psychiatrist haha.

[SeaGypsy]

Onlooker, I think your OP is a train of thought most of us have been down. Ralphy's tragic forecast is near enough to inevitable.
Right now we have multiple failed states emerging on top of ones like Somalia, likely permanently utterly dysfunctional & examples of what Ralphy describes as the long term future of our species. Whether you want to believe global dystopia is next decade, next century or further, it is happening now already to millions, soon to billions. The shit is already hitting the fan. Careful of your popcorn.

[onlooker]

Careful Sea, some anti-doomer like Outcast or Cog will come a calling saying we are hopeless doomers. As though being a doomer was a voluntary fun choice. Just that we got more courage then they do. On the other thread we discussed about troll or idiots. Well it comes down to looking squarely at the facts of the matter and not blinking. I am at the point whereby doom or no doom is okay with me cause I am no longer invested very much in this life. See my moniker about peace below. I had enough of living in interesting times.

[SeaGypsy]

I have way more 'fun' in life than most people, I am very fortunate, not rich. I have a few career options I can jump at will between. I am clever enough to help my employers make more than they expected by hiring me. I can travel at will, get great working conditions with heaps of block time off to travel.
My kids are settled in the most livable city in the world according to multiple indexes.
Despite my so called doom perspective, opportunities just keep growing in front of me.
Doomerism is my greatest asset.

[ralfy]

You have no more credible fantasies to peddle than bad movie plots? OK then.

Bad movie plots? Consider WW2 and the Cold War. Significant numbers of those who died were unarmed civilians, especially during instances when nuclear weapons were used. During the latter, military powers preyed on weak nations over oil and other resources, and it is on-going.

Now, we're seeing combinations of crises, with indicators tracking forecasts across four decades:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

[Apneaman]

onlooker, it's not the most far fetched scenario and it has some historical comparables. Like the great powers agreeing on how they were going to carve up the ottoman empire after ww1 and parts of Africa too. I think it would be more than the big 3, at least at the start. Do you really want to leave nuclear armed France out of the deal? They have nuclear powered subs with missiles with nuclear war heads. What if the plan does not work to perfection? What do you think they will do? Don't buy into the anglo American propaganda that they are cowards. Look at the last 1000 years of their military history and you will find some world class ass kicking. Another big problem I see is that although the western countries make up a minority of the population they are major resource consumers. If resources and longevity were a concern it would behoove them to cull their own population as well and that means most of the middle class and many of the wealthy and that makes it even more complicated. If they try something like that it will be short term because the powerful countries are the overwhelming majority of the problem. Were obese insatiable gluttons. Lets not forget how resource and energy intense any version of that scenario would be and putting billions of folks on "death ground" will have a shit load of blow back. A biological attack would be the cheapest way to do it, but anything of that scale would be virtually impossible to keep secret. Only in the movies.

[onlooker]

One reason I do not think these scenarios are not so far-fetched is the elites those in power have throughout time shown a willingness to engage in wars no matter the cost to civilians. In the desperate times ahead it seems war is baked into the pie so to speak. So my OP explored this option and I received some good responses. The Devil is the details but I am sure someone(s) are as we speak already analyzing these scenarios. I mean what else do the military people in US, China and Russia have to do? haha.

[ennui2]

Russia has already laid claim to the North Pole. So this kind of stuff is already happening although I do NOT think the powers that be have a complete grasp on overshoot and limits to growth. They are just thinking one move ahead on the chessboard rather than seeing all the way to the endgame.

[Hawkcreek]

A biological attack would be the cheapest way to do it, but anything of that scale would be virtually impossible to keep secret. Only in the movies.

I think a biological agent is in the end game for the planet.
It leaves the infrastructure virtually intact - unlike nukes, EMP, or a gradual rundown.
It allows the elite to have advance notice to get their vaccinations, and to decide who they want as their serfs.
It would be the cheapest method of killing 7 billion people.
It is achievable today, and the most knowledgeable groups about how to do it are part of the existing control structure - all the initial groups, CIA, DIA, NSA, etc. Put 10 agents with the right solution in spray bottles in their shaving kits, and they can expose the whole world in a week. It isn't that hard to find 10 psycho's if you have psych evaluations on a few million public employees. Creation of the agent has probably already been done by some Big Pharm company with a government contract for "combating a terrorist biological plot",
Only reason it hasn't already started is that the big dogs are probably still fighting over who controls the nicest territory.
Yep, the Superflu is gonna change everything.