Mideast Madness

[ItalyRules]

Anybody following what's going on? Turkey and Syria have tanks facing off across their borders, while at the same time supporting each others rebels.

Iran is looking like it's about to close the Straits of Hormuz over the EU sanctions.

Saudi Arabia has already reopened it's single pipeline to it's Red Sea port, which could only handle a very small percentage of it's exports.

Oman is preping it's southernmost port which was damaged by a Hurricane a few years ago.

US has sent more assets and minesweepers, but if there are mines, insurance on the tankers immediately becomes prohibitive, stopping all shipments.

There are so many reassurances going on by governments it's almost certain to happen. And they know it. It's like they are betting on a pair of twos and hoping nobody calls. Iran is already deciding how much to raise.

This is exactly how all those WWIII movies from the 1980's begin.

This gets hot they won't just stop shipments. they will take out the major refineries, and production. How long to replace Abqaiq, or Ras Tanura?

We are talking what if they take out the infrastructure? 50% reduction for years? More?

[SeaGypsy]

No, what happens if Iran does that is the biggest instant glass making experiment ever. They know this and won't do it. If you are correct and this happens, I will gift wrap my left nut and send it to you Fedex.

The game is to keep the price up for US suppliers, not to destroy the world economy (worse). Russia has much lower costs than the USA, would like to see the USA in some more pain, but is simultaneously very happy with their profit margin; thus is playing a delicate game.

[dolanbaker]

I very much doubt that anyone would nuke the ME, just imagine how difficult it would be to get workers back in there to rebuild oil production plant on radioactive land.

[SeaGypsy]

The OP seems to suggest such oil fields are a target priority. There will be heel to pay if such fantasies ever got played out. There are other kinds of nuclear weapons, the glass maker being an exaggeration of likely retaliation. If these installations were hit, so much damage would be done to the economy that nuclear war might be seen as compassionate action.

[Cloud9]

One of the most dangerous delusions is the self-delusion of a people that makes their national agenda into the will of God!

[ItalyRules]

Wouldn't need nukes. Conventional warheads could take out both Abqaiq and Ras Tanura within minutes of launching from Iran.

We wouldn't respond with nukes to such an attack. But the West would have already lost.

The West would probably then need to deal with Iran for their oil just to prevent a total collapse of their economies.

Like I said. Betting on a pair of twos. Iran can end this in 5 minutes. If I were the Supreme Ayatollah, it would already be done and I would be offering the West conditions for getting Iranian oil.

[Timo]

Remember, we are rapidly approaching elections here in the US this summer and fall. I really, REALLY hope i'm wrong on this, but the precedent was set in stone by the previous administration in securing their safety net with the public, manufacturing all kinds of claims and deliberately placing the US of A as the Protector of Peace, and repeating ad nauseaum the mantra 'Don't change captains in the middle of a war.' Such a war right now could be interpreted as an advantage to tptb. It could very well unify enough of the American voters to support the President in a time of crisis. On the other hand, such a war could be interpreted as a return to the Bush years, starting a needless war just to justify your own existence. But, cut to the chase, i am cynical enough to think that wars are started just for that reason. Therefore, yeah, i expect a large regional war off in the ME. How big it gets depends on Putin and whoever wins here in the US this fall. And remember, too, Obama has a Nobel Peace Prize. The stage is set for absurd levels of irony!

[Fishman]

Sea, betting one's testicle on the logic of man and pure economics is a quick way to lean to one side.
Timo, I'm reminded of a presidency a few more years back where Iran did as they chose and a weak president wrung his hands..
Well, its good to get back to the periodic "war with Iran is immenent". Unfortunately the claims during a strong presidency generally come to naught, with a weak one, well lets see.....

There is more than one fictional book out there about Iran popping a electromagnetic pulse over the US to bring us down.